Cardiff and Wrexham face off in the English Championship on August 17. Wrexham's recent draw against Middlesbrough, coming off a 2-2 scoreline, is a storyline worth noting, but it's Cardiff's struggles at home that may be more telling. At home, Cardiff has averaged 1.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded against stronger opponents. Meanwhile, Wrexham has averaged 1.36 goals scored and 1.29 conceded away against weaker opponents.
The model predicts a home win for Cardiff, with a 37% chance of a home win, 30% chance of a draw, and 34% chance of an away win. The expected total goals is 2.5, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 14.2% probability.
Cardiff's home scoring and conceding form against stronger opponents is a key factor in the model's selection. The model's selection for the match is the Under 3.5 goals, with a 76.6% probability and a 10% edge. The model also suggests the Over 1.5 goals, with a 71.7% probability. The home win percentage is 37%, the draw percentage is 30%, and the away win percentage is 34%.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Cardiff, failed to deliver as the match finished 1-1, a draw that left the model’s call wrong. Cardiff had been coming off a draw and had a recent run of DDLWW, while Wrexham, also fresh from a draw, had a DDDLW streak. The model had given Cardiff a 37 % chance of winning, yet the result was a stalemate. Every suggested pick was settled: Away under 3.5 goals hit at 96.6 %, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 96.1 %, Under 25.5 fouls hit at 88.4 %, Away under 2.5 goals hit at 88.0 %, Under 5.5 cards hit at 86.6 %, Home under 2.5 goals hit at 86.6 %, Home +2 handicap hit at 85.3 %, and Away +2 handicap hit at 83.3 %. The final score of 1-1 matched the most likely 1-1 outcome, but the predicted home win did not materialise.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Cardiff win✗ Miss
36.6%
Avg Implied 37.6% · @ 2.50
Edge
-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.63
Betano
2.62
10Bet
2.56
888Sport
2.50
BetVictor
2.50
Draw✓ Hit
29.8%
Avg Implied 27.6% · @ 3.40
Edge
+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.55
Pinnacle
3.54
BetVictor
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Betano
3.40
Wrexham win✗ Miss
33.5%
Avg Implied 34.9% · @ 2.69
Edge
-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.85
Bet365
2.75
Betfair
2.75
Unibet
2.75
Marathonbet
2.70
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Cardiff
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.07
1.27
2.00
1.06
2.14
1.50
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.56
1.39
1.38
0.75
1.70
1.90
vs Weaker (11)
3.00
0.91
2.86
1.14
3.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Wrexham) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wrexham
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.60
2.00
1.81
1.36
1.36
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.65
2.05
2.00
2.08
1.12
2.00
vs Weaker (9)
1.78
0.56
2.00
0.67
1.67
0.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.7%
@ 1.23-4.3%
Under 1.5
28.3%
@ 3.90+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
BetVictor
1.24
Under
Pinnacle
4.25
Betfair
4.20
Unibet
4.10
Bet365
4.00
888Sport
3.90
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
44.6%
@ 1.77-9.0%
Under 2.5
55.4%
@ 2.04+9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.83
Betano
1.82
10Bet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.78
Under
Pinnacle
2.11
Betfair
2.10
Betano
2.05
Unibet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.05
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.4%
@ 2.84-9.5%
Under 3.5
76.6%
@ 1.39+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.00
10Bet
3.00
Betano
3.00
Pinnacle
2.94
Betfair
2.88
Under
Pinnacle
1.43
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
Unibet
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.4%
@ 1.59-7.1%
No
48.6%
@ 2.24+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
10Bet
1.62
888Sport
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.62
William Hil
1.62
No
Betfair
2.45
Unibet
2.28
BetVictor
2.25
1xBet
2.23
Betano
2.22
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.2%@ 6.18+6.9%
0-0
9.8%@ 11.36+5.9%
1-0
9.5%@ 9.11+4.5%
0-1
8.9%@ 9.53+4.2%
2-1
8.2%@ 8.86+3.1%
1-2
7.7%@ 9.29+2.9%
2-0
6.8%@ 12.64+3.2%
0-2
6.1%@ 13.74+2.8%
Cardiff goals ↓
Wrexham goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.8%
8.9%
6.1%
2.4%
0.7%
1
9.5%
14%
7.7%
3.1%
0.9%
2
6.8%
8.2%
4.9%
2.0%
0.6%
3
2.9%
3.4%
2.1%
0.8%
0.2%
4
0.9%
1.1%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cardiff goals (down), columns = Wrexham goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
West Ham
1.92
Wolves
1.90
Millwall
1.75
Burnley
1.72
Southampton
1.71
Middlesbrough
1.67
Wrexham
1.54
Derby
1.50
Norwich
1.41
Birmingham
1.39
Swansea
1.39
Bristol City
1.35
Sheffield United
1.30
Preston
1.30
Cardiff
1.30
QPR
1.26
Watford
1.24
Stoke
1.20
Portsmouth
1.20
West Brom
1.15
Charlton
1.15
Blackburn
1.13
Bolton
1.00
Lincoln
0.94
Cardiff is 0.25 points worse than Wrexham in terms of average points per game (1.30 vs 1.54).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
West Ham
1.82
Wolves
1.81
Southampton
1.73
Burnley
1.63
Wrexham
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.49
Derby
1.46
Sheffield United
1.43
Norwich
1.37
Millwall
1.33
QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.28
Birmingham
1.24
Swansea
1.24
Cardiff
1.23
Preston
1.20
Watford
1.15
Stoke
1.11
Portsmouth
1.07
West Brom
1.04
Charlton
0.96
Bolton
0.95
Blackburn
0.91
Lincoln
0.89
Cardiff is 0.27 goals worse than Wrexham in terms of goals scored per game (1.23 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
West Ham
0.92
Wolves
0.93
Middlesbrough
1.00
Burnley
1.03
Millwall
1.06
Southampton
1.19
Birmingham
1.22
Blackburn
1.22
Norwich
1.22
Stoke
1.22
West Brom
1.26
Charlton
1.26
Bristol City
1.28
Swansea
1.28
Derby
1.28
Preston
1.35
Cardiff
1.36
Portsmouth
1.39
Wrexham
1.41
Watford
1.41
Sheffield United
1.43
QPR
1.59
Bolton
1.77
Lincoln
1.87
Cardiff is 0.05 goals better than Wrexham in terms of goals conceded per game (1.36 vs 1.41).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Middlesbrough
59%
Southampton
56%
Swansea
55%
Birmingham
54%
Norwich
54%
Sheffield United
52%
Stoke
52%
West Brom
52%
Watford
51%
Portsmouth
50%
Bristol City
49%
Wrexham
48%
Blackburn
48%
Millwall
48%
QPR
46%
Preston
46%
Derby
44%
Charlton
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Cardiff
For 8.2 · Against 4.2 · Total 12.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.6 · Against 8.9 · Total 18.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Wrexham
For 4.2 · Against 5.6 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 8.8 · Total 20.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cardiff
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.4
10.6
3.4
3.4
3.4
20.8
20.7
20.9
vs Stronger (2)
11.5
10.0
13.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
17.5
14.0
21.0
vs Similar (31)
11.3
11.6
11.0
3.5
3.4
3.5
20.5
19.8
21.1
vs Weaker (17)
9.1
8.8
9.4
3.4
3.5
3.3
21.7
22.7
20.3
% over line
63%
64%
62%
48%
52%
44%
33%
36%
29%
% under line
37%
36%
38%
52%
48%
56%
67%
64%
71%
This opponent (Wrexham) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wrexham
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.2
10.0
3.5
3.5
3.5
19.3
19.1
19.6
vs Stronger (1)
13.0
13.0
-
6.0
6.0
-
17.0
17.0
-
vs Similar (29)
9.0
9.3
8.7
3.8
3.8
3.7
19.4
18.9
20.0
vs Weaker (20)
11.6
11.3
11.9
3.0
2.7
3.3
19.3
19.6
19.0
% over line
52%
46%
58%
50%
42%
58%
28%
23%
33%
% under line
48%
54%
42%
50%
58%
42%
72%
77%
67%
This opponent (Cardiff) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sheffield United
11.5
Southampton
11.0
West Ham
11.0
Millwall
10.8
Middlesbrough
10.8
Portsmouth
10.8
Preston
10.7
Stoke
10.7
Cardiff
10.6
Blackburn
10.5
Norwich
10.4
Birmingham
10.3
Watford
10.2
QPR
10.2
Wrexham
10.1
Bolton
10.1
Bristol City
10.0
Swansea
10.0
Derby
9.9
Charlton
9.6
Wolves
9.5
Burnley
9.4
West Brom
9.3
Lincoln
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Watford
4.5
Derby
4.1
Lincoln
4.1
Sheffield United
4.0
Swansea
4.0
Southampton
4.0
Stoke
3.9
Portsmouth
3.9
Blackburn
3.9
Bristol City
3.9
Norwich
3.8
West Ham
3.8
Wolves
3.7
QPR
3.7
Bolton
3.7
Birmingham
3.7
Charlton
3.6
Middlesbrough
3.6
Millwall
3.5
Wrexham
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
West Brom
3.4
Preston
3.4
Burnley
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Wolves
23.3
Lincoln
22.9
Derby
22.6
Swansea
22.5
Bolton
22.4
West Ham
22.4
Southampton
22.3
Portsmouth
22.1
Birmingham
22.0
Charlton
21.6
Sheffield United
21.5
Middlesbrough
21.4
Norwich
21.3
Watford
21.2
Blackburn
21.2
Bristol City
21.1
Cardiff
20.8
QPR
20.8
Millwall
20.6
Stoke
20.6
West Brom
20.5
Burnley
20.3
Preston
20.1
Wrexham
19.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
58.6%
@ 1.66+2.6%
Under 9.5
41.4%
@ 2.11-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.72
Marathonbet
1.68
1xBet
1.68
Betano
1.67
Unibet
1.61
Under
Betfair
2.20
Pinnacle
2.12
Unibet
2.12
Betano
2.12
1xBet
2.06
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
46.9%
@ 1.88-2.5%
Under 3.5
53.1%
@ 1.83+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.98
Pinnacle
1.97
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.78
Under
Betano
1.98
1xBet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Pinnacle
1.82
Unibet
1.71
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
37.8%
@ 2.21-1.8%
Under 21.5
62.2%
@ 1.45+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.21
Under
1xBet
1.45
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Cardiff or Draw✓ Hit
66.5%
Avg Implied 65.4% · @ 1.43
Edge
+1.0%
37%
30%
34%
covers Cardiff + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Bet365
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
Cardiff or Wrexham✗ Miss
70.2%
Avg Implied 72.4% · @ 1.29
Edge
-2.2%
37%
30%
34%
covers Cardiff + Wrexham
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.31
888Sport
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Draw or Wrexham✓ Hit
63.4%
Avg Implied 62.2% · @ 1.50
Edge
+1.2%
37%
30%
34%
covers Draw + Wrexham
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
1.53
William Hil
1.53
Unibet
1.53
Betano
1.52
Marathonbet
1.51
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Cardiff over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
71.7%
@ 1.23-3.8%
Under
28.3%
@ 3.79+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
888Sport
1.25
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Under
Pinnacle
4.04
Betfair
4.00
Unibet
3.90
888Sport
3.80
BetVictor
3.80
Cardiff over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
36.0%
@ 2.18-6.8%
Under
64.0%
@ 1.63+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.29
10Bet
2.25
Bet365
2.25
Betano
2.22
1xBet
2.17
Under
Marathonbet
1.67
1xBet
1.66
Pinnacle
1.66
Unibet
1.66
Betfair
1.65
Cardiff over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.4%
@ 4.86-5.7%
Under
86.6%
@ 1.15+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.20
10Bet
5.00
BetVictor
4.80
888Sport
4.80
Under
888Sport
1.17
Betano
1.17
Unibet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
Cardiff over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.9%
@ 11.16-4.5%
Under
96.1%
@ 1.03+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
888Sport
13.00
Unibet
10.00
1xBet
9.90
Marathonbet
9.80
Under
888Sport
1.04
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Unibet
1.01
Wrexham over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
69.8%
@ 1.25-4.5%
Under
30.2%
@ 3.62+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Under
Betfair
4.00
Pinnacle
3.89
888Sport
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
Unibet
3.55
Wrexham over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
33.7%
@ 2.29-7.2%
Under
66.3%
@ 1.58+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.38
Pinnacle
2.35
888Sport
2.30
1xBet
2.29
Marathonbet
2.29
Under
Pinnacle
1.63
Betano
1.60
Marathonbet
1.60
1xBet
1.60
BetVictor
1.57
Wrexham over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.0%
@ 5.12-6.1%
Under
88.0%
@ 1.13+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
BetVictor
5.25
Marathonbet
5.05
1xBet
5.00
Under
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
888Sport
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
Wrexham over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.4%
@ 13.08-4.0%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.03+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
888Sport
15.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
888Sport
1.03
Bet365
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Cardiff, so a minus line means Cardiff give that many goals of a start and Wrexham receive them. At -1, Cardiff must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Cardiff win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Cardiff)Actual: Wrexham
Cardiff -2
5.7%
@ 10.50-2.9%
Draw -2
11.0%
@ 7.06-1.8%
Wrexham +2
83.3%
@ 1.14+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
11.00
10Bet
10.00
Unibet
9.50
Marathonbet
9.00
Draw
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.50
10Bet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.80
Unibet
6.50
Away
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Betfair
1.11
Handicap -1 (Cardiff)Actual: Wrexham
Cardiff -1
16.7%
@ 4.79-2.0%
Draw -1
20.0%
@ 4.17-1.5%
Wrexham +1
63.4%
@ 1.49+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Unibet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.45
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.20
Marathonbet
4.15
Unibet
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Away
Unibet
1.52
Marathonbet
1.51
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Betfair
1.44
Handicap +1 (Cardiff)Actual: Cardiff
Cardiff +1
66.5%
@ 1.43+4.2%
Draw +1
18.9%
@ 4.30-1.9%
Wrexham -1
14.7%
@ 5.26-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.48
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
Unibet
1.42
Betfair
1.40
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.35
Betfair
4.33
Unibet
4.30
10Bet
4.00
Away
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.30
10Bet
5.00
Marathonbet
5.00
Handicap +2 (Cardiff)Actual: Cardiff
Cardiff +2
85.3%
@ 1.12+5.7%
Draw +2
9.9%
@ 7.22-2.5%
Wrexham -2
4.8%
@ 11.06-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Draw
Betfair
8.50
Bet365
8.00
Unibet
7.50
10Bet
7.00
Marathonbet
5.10
Away
Betfair
14.00
Bet365
12.00
Unibet
11.50
10Bet
11.00
Marathonbet
6.80
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Cardiff
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.60
0.94
0.38
0.86
0.86
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.83
0.72
0.88
0.25
0.80
1.10
vs Weaker (11)
1.09
0.45
1.14
0.57
1.00
0.25
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Wrexham) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wrexham
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.70
1.19
0.88
0.57
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.80
0.90
1.08
1.08
0.38
0.62
vs Weaker (9)
1.11
0.22
1.67
0.00
0.83
0.33
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cardiff over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wrexham over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wrexham over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wrexham over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Cardiff
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.67
1.06
0.69
1.29
0.64
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.72
0.67
0.50
0.50
0.90
0.80
vs Weaker (11)
1.91
0.45
1.71
0.57
2.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Wrexham) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wrexham
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.90
0.81
0.94
0.79
0.86
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.85
1.15
0.92
1.00
0.75
1.38
vs Weaker (9)
0.67
0.33
0.33
0.67
0.83
0.17
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cardiff over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wrexham over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wrexham over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wrexham over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 3.5 goals
96.6%
1.03
Betano
1.04
888Sport
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.1%
1.03
888Sport
1.04
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Unibet
1.01
-
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
88.0%
1.13
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
888Sport
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
+6.1%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
86.6%
1.15
888Sport
1.17
Betano
1.17
Unibet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
85.3%
1.12
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
83.3%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Betfair
1.11
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
76.6%
1.39
Pinnacle
1.43
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
Unibet
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
+9.5%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
72.0%
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
-
-
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
71.7%
1.23
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
BetVictor
1.24
-4.3%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
71.7%
1.23
Betano
1.27
888Sport
1.25
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
-3.8%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.6%
1.37
Betano
1.40
Unibet
1.37
1xBet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.37
Betfair
1.33
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
70.2%
1.29
Betano
1.31
888Sport
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-2.2%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Cardiff
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yousef Salech50%
Jack Moylan33%
Cian Ashford33%
Rubin Colwill20%
Perry Ng17%
Callum Robinson0%
Gabriel Osho0%
Chris Willock0%
David Turnbull0%
Nathan Trott0%
Ollie Tanner0%
Joel Bagan0%
Isaak Davies0%
Alex Robertson0%
Calum Scanlon0%
Joel Colwill0%
Ronan Kpakio0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Perry Ng33%
Alex Robertson33%
Ollie Tanner20%
Rubin Colwill20%
Jack Moylan17%
Isaak Davies17%
Joel Colwill17%
Callum Robinson0%
Gabriel Osho0%
Chris Willock0%
David Turnbull0%
Nathan Trott0%
Joel Bagan0%
Calum Scanlon0%
Yousef Salech0%
Cian Ashford0%
Ronan Kpakio0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Cian Ashford33%
Ronan Kpakio25%
Ollie Tanner20%
Rubin Colwill20%
Yousef Salech17%
Perry Ng0%
Callum Robinson0%
Gabriel Osho0%
Chris Willock0%
David Turnbull0%
Nathan Trott0%
Jack Moylan0%
Joel Bagan0%
Isaak Davies0%
Alex Robertson0%
Calum Scanlon0%
Joel Colwill0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Yousef Salech67%
Jack Moylan33%
Perry Ng17%
Cian Ashford17%
Callum Robinson0%
Gabriel Osho0%
Chris Willock0%
David Turnbull0%
Nathan Trott0%
Ollie Tanner0%
Joel Bagan0%
Isaak Davies0%
Alex Robertson0%
Rubin Colwill0%
Calum Scanlon0%
Joel Colwill0%
Ronan Kpakio0%
Wrexham
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kieffer Moore40%
Daniel Imray20%
Callum Doyle20%
Matty James0%
Zak Vyner0%
Anthony Patterson0%
Ben Whiteman0%
Dominic Hyam0%
Oliver Rathbone0%
Sam Smith0%
Lewis O'Brien0%
Nathan Broadhead0%
Ryan Longman0%
George Thomason0%
Bailey Cadamarteri0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ben Whiteman40%
Dominic Hyam40%
Bailey Cadamarteri33%
Nathan Broadhead25%
Kieffer Moore20%
Sam Smith20%
Lewis O'Brien20%
Callum Doyle20%
Matty James0%
Zak Vyner0%
Anthony Patterson0%
Oliver Rathbone0%
Ryan Longman0%
George Thomason0%
Daniel Imray0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Daniel Imray40%
Lewis O'Brien20%
Matty James0%
Zak Vyner0%
Kieffer Moore0%
Anthony Patterson0%
Ben Whiteman0%
Dominic Hyam0%
Oliver Rathbone0%
Sam Smith0%
Nathan Broadhead0%
Ryan Longman0%
George Thomason0%
Callum Doyle0%
Bailey Cadamarteri0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kieffer Moore40%
Sam Smith20%
Daniel Imray20%
Callum Doyle20%
Matty James0%
Zak Vyner0%
Anthony Patterson0%
Ben Whiteman0%
Dominic Hyam0%
Oliver Rathbone0%
Lewis O'Brien0%
Nathan Broadhead0%
Ryan Longman0%
George Thomason0%
Bailey Cadamarteri0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
Cardiff's squad is €48m less valuable than Wrexham's (€29m vs €77m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
Cardiff and Wrexham have a similar attack value (both €15m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
BLB (7)
€7m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
LIN (4)
€2m
Cardiff's midfield is €19m less valuable than Wrexham's (€4m vs €23m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (12)
€141m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
LIN (13)
€6m
Cardiff's defence is €29m less valuable than Wrexham's (€10m vs €39m).
England: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Swansea
QPR
Charlton
Southampton
Wolves
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
West Brom
Birmingham
Sheffield United
Millwall
West Ham
Blackburn
Watford
Bolton
Derby
Lincoln
Norwich
Portsmouth
Stoke
Burnley
Preston