The contest between Celta Vigo and Athletic Club feels razor-thin, with the model assigning a 36% chance to each side and a 28% chance of a draw. The most likely outcome, according to the model, is a home win, and the average goal tally sits at 2.8, pointing to a fairly open affair. The single score that the model deems most probable is a 1-1 draw, with a 13.2% chance, even though the total-goals expectation is 2.8. Celta Vigo, playing at home, averages 1.67 goals scored and 1.58 conceded against similarly matched opponents, while Athletic Club, on the road, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.71 conceded. The suggested selections echo the low-scoring narrative: Under 7.5 goals at 98.6%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.4%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 93.1%, Home under 3.5 goals at 91.3%, Under 6.5 at 96.2%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.2% with a 3% edge, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.1% with a 4% edge, Away under 3.5 goals at 94.2%, and Under 7.5 goals again at 98.6%. Both sides have just come off defeats - Celta Vigo lost 1-2 to Osasuna and Athletic Club fell 0-2 to Barcelona - so the balance remains even.
Results analysis
The upset came as Celta Vigo, the pre-match favourite, failed to secure the win they were tipped for. The final score was 0-2, giving Athletic Club the victory. The model had picked a home win with a 36% probability, but that call was wrong. The model’s selections all hit: Under 7.5 goals at 98.6%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.2%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.1%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.4%, Under 6.5 at 96.2%, Away under 3.5 goals at 94.2%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 93.1%, and Home under 3.5 goals at 91.3%. Athletic’s win extended their run, while Celta’s streak of two defeats continued.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Celta Vigo win✗ Miss
36.0%
Avg Implied 35.4% · @ 2.69
Edge
+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
2.75
Dafabet
2.75
Bet365
2.75
Pinnacle
2.75
Unibet
2.75
Draw✗ Miss
28.5%
Avg Implied 30.0% · @ 3.18
Edge
-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.30
Pinnacle
3.26
BetVictor
3.25
Betfair
3.25
Marathonbet
3.24
Athletic Club win✓ Hit
35.5%
Avg Implied 34.7% · @ 2.75
Edge
+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.88
Marathonbet
2.83
Pinnacle
2.81
Betfair
2.80
Betano
2.80
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Celta Vigo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.33
1.57
1.57
1.12
1.12
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
0.86
1.33
1.33
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (23)
1.39
1.48
1.64
1.64
1.17
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Athletic Club) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Athletic Club
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.73
1.23
1.46
1.35
1.94
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
2.60
1.00
2.00
1.33
3.00
vs Similar (17)
1.12
1.53
1.20
1.40
1.00
1.71
vs Weaker (8)
1.75
1.62
2.00
1.00
1.71
1.71
Clean sheet %
7% (-21pp vs league)
This opponent (Celta Vigo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.8%
@ 1.36+6.8%
Under 1.5
24.2%
@ 3.04-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
Pinnacle
1.38
10Bet
1.38
BetVictor
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Under
Bet365
3.20
Pinnacle
3.18
Unibet
3.15
Betfair
3.10
Superbet
3.10
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.8%
@ 2.16+5.6%
Under 2.5
50.2%
@ 1.71-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.23
1xBet
2.23
Bet365
2.20
Betano
2.18
Superbet
2.17
Under
1xBet
1.76
SBO
1.74
Betfair
1.73
Pinnacle
1.72
Betano
1.72
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.9%
@ 3.80+3.2%
Under 3.5
72.1%
@ 1.24-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.90
Unibet
3.85
10Bet
3.85
Betano
3.80
Under
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Betfair
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.5%
@ 1.82+4.1%
No
44.5%
@ 1.92-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.85
BetVictor
1.83
William Hil
1.83
Betano
1.82
Marathonbet
1.82
No
Bet365
1.95
Betfair
1.95
William Hil
1.95
10Bet
1.93
Betano
1.93
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%@ 5.82+5.9%
2-1
8.3%@ 9.47+3.5%
1-2
8.2%@ 9.68+3.6%
0-0
8.2%@ 8.35+2.8%
1-0
8.1%@ 7.41+2.0%
0-1
8.0%@ 7.47+2.0%
2-0
6.2%@ 12.13+2.5%
0-2 ✓
6.1%@ 12.40+2.5%
Celta Vigo goals ↓
Athletic Club goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.2%
8.0%
6.1%
2.7%
0.9%
1
8.1%
14%
8.2%
3.6%
1.2%
2
6.2%
8.3%
5.5%
2.4%
0.8%
3
2.8%
3.7%
2.5%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.9%
1.2%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Celta Vigo goals (down), columns = Athletic Club goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barcelona
2.47
Real Madrid
2.26
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.82
Real Betis
1.58
Celta Vigo
1.42
Getafe
1.34
Rayo Vallecano
1.32
Valencia
1.29
Real Sociedad
1.21
Espanyol
1.21
Athletic Club
1.18
Sevilla
1.13
Elche
1.13
Alaves
1.13
Levante
1.11
Osasuna
1.11
Malaga
1.10
Racing Santander
1.10
Deportivo La Coruna
1.08
Celta Vigo is 0.24 points better than Athletic Club in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 1.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barcelona
2.50
Real Madrid
2.03
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.63
Real Sociedad
1.55
Real Betis
1.55
Celta Vigo
1.39
Elche
1.29
Levante
1.24
Sevilla
1.21
Valencia
1.21
Osasuna
1.16
Alaves
1.16
Athletic Club
1.13
Espanyol
1.13
Rayo Vallecano
1.08
Malaga
1.08
Racing Santander
1.08
Deportivo La Coruna
1.06
Getafe
0.84
Celta Vigo is 0.26 goals better than Athletic Club in terms of goals scored per game (1.39 vs 1.13).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Real Madrid
0.92
Barcelona
0.95
Getafe
1.00
Atletico Madrid
1.16
Rayo Vallecano
1.16
Villarreal
1.21
Real Betis
1.26
Celta Vigo
1.26
Osasuna
1.32
Valencia
1.45
Espanyol
1.45
Alaves
1.47
Elche
1.50
Athletic Club
1.53
Sevilla
1.58
Levante
1.61
Real Sociedad
1.61
Malaga
1.69
Racing Santander
1.69
Deportivo La Coruna
1.72
Celta Vigo is 0.26 goals better than Athletic Club in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.53).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Barcelona
69%
Real Madrid
59%
Elche
58%
Rayo Vallecano
53%
Atletico Madrid
53%
Real Sociedad
51%
Sevilla
51%
Celta Vigo
50%
Real Betis
50%
Athletic Club
49%
Alaves
48%
Valencia
48%
Osasuna
47%
Villarreal
45%
Levante
43%
Espanyol
42%
Getafe
40%
Celta Vigo is 1.8 percentage points better than Athletic Club in terms of average possession (50% vs 49%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Celta Vigo
For 3.3 · Against 4.3 · Total 7.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 14.1 · Total 26.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Athletic Club
For 7.3 · Against 4.4 · Total 11.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.6 · Against 9.7 · Total 22.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Celta Vigo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.8
7.7
7.8
4.5
4.7
4.4
25.0
23.7
26.2
vs Stronger (10)
7.9
8.0
7.8
5.7
6.0
5.4
22.7
20.2
25.2
vs Similar (37)
7.5
7.7
7.4
4.2
4.3
4.2
25.1
24.6
25.6
vs Weaker (3)
12.0
-
12.0
4.7
-
4.7
34.0
-
34.0
% over line
22%
22%
23%
62%
65%
59%
67%
65%
69%
% under line
78%
78%
77%
38%
35%
41%
33%
35%
31%
This opponent (Athletic Club) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Athletic Club
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
10.0
9.5
4.4
4.8
4.0
25.3
24.9
25.7
vs Stronger (11)
8.9
9.3
8.4
3.5
4.5
2.2
23.6
24.7
22.4
vs Similar (26)
10.2
10.8
9.7
4.0
4.5
3.6
25.2
23.4
26.6
vs Weaker (13)
9.4
8.6
9.9
5.8
6.0
5.8
27.2
28.6
26.2
% over line
50%
52%
48%
62%
74%
52%
70%
65%
74%
% under line
50%
48%
52%
38%
26%
48%
30%
35%
26%
This opponent (Celta Vigo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rayo Vallecano
10.8
Atletico Madrid
10.8
Racing Santander
10.8
Barcelona
10.8
Real Madrid
10.6
Alaves
10.6
Real Sociedad
10.3
Levante
10.1
Valencia
9.8
Athletic Club
9.7
Espanyol
9.6
Sevilla
9.3
Villarreal
9.2
Osasuna
9.1
Deportivo La Coruna
9.1
Malaga
9.0
Real Betis
9.0
Getafe
8.8
Elche
8.3
Celta Vigo
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Racing Santander
6.3
Rayo Vallecano
5.7
Getafe
5.5
Malaga
5.3
Sevilla
5.2
Real Sociedad
5.1
Deportivo La Coruna
5.1
Real Madrid
4.9
Espanyol
4.9
Osasuna
4.8
Alaves
4.8
Celta Vigo
4.7
Levante
4.7
Elche
4.7
Athletic Club
4.7
Valencia
4.6
Real Betis
4.6
Villarreal
4.4
Barcelona
4.4
Atletico Madrid
4.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Getafe
29.3
Alaves
28.7
Elche
28.1
Sevilla
27.7
Racing Santander
26.8
Real Sociedad
26.6
Espanyol
26.1
Rayo Vallecano
25.8
Athletic Club
25.3
Celta Vigo
25.0
Osasuna
24.9
Villarreal
24.8
Malaga
24.8
Levante
24.4
Valencia
24.2
Real Madrid
23.9
Deportivo La Coruna
23.6
Real Betis
23.3
Barcelona
21.8
Atletico Madrid
21.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
42.4%
@ 2.38+3.5%
Under 9.5
57.6%
@ 1.51-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.55
Betano
2.42
Pinnacle
2.37
Superbet
2.35
Marathonbet
2.34
Under
Pinnacle
1.57
Superbet
1.55
Unibet
1.52
Betano
1.52
Marathonbet
1.50
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
64.8%
@ 1.46+1.3%
Under 3.5
35.2%
@ 2.54-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.48
Unibet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.42
Under
Superbet
2.62
Pinnacle
2.58
Betano
2.57
Unibet
2.40
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
74.2%
@ 1.27+2.6%
Under 21.5
25.8%
@ 3.20-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.27
Under
1xBet
3.20
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Celta Vigo or Draw✗ Miss
67.8%
Avg Implied 65.4% · @ 1.44
Edge
+2.3%
36%
28%
36%
covers Celta Vigo + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.47
Superbet
1.47
1xBet
1.47
Betano
1.47
10Bet
1.45
Celta Vigo or Athletic Club✓ Hit
74.1%
Avg Implied 70.2% · @ 1.34
Edge
+3.9%
36%
28%
36%
covers Celta Vigo + Athletic Club
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.38
1xBet
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.35
Draw or Athletic Club✓ Hit
58.1%
Avg Implied 64.3% · @ 1.46
Edge
-6.2%
36%
28%
36%
covers Draw + Athletic Club
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.51
Marathonbet
1.51
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.48
SBO
1.48
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Celta Vigo over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
80.9%
@ 1.33+10.8%
Under
19.1%
@ 3.12-10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.35
Superbet
1.35
Betano
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
Unibet
1.33
Under
Betfair
3.30
Pinnacle
3.30
Bet365
3.25
1xBet
3.10
Marathonbet
3.10
Celta Vigo over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
49.3%
@ 2.63+13.7%
Under
50.7%
@ 1.45-13.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.79
Marathonbet
2.67
Superbet
2.65
BetVictor
2.63
10Bet
2.62
Under
1xBet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Marathonbet
1.47
Pinnacle
1.47
Superbet
1.45
Celta Vigo over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
23.1%
@ 6.47+8.7%
Under
76.9%
@ 1.09-8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
6.70
Marathonbet
6.55
BetVictor
6.50
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
1xBet
1.09
Unibet
1.09
Celta Vigo over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
8.7%
@ 15.58+2.5%
Under
91.3%
@ 1.02-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
17.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Athletic Club over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
76.1%
@ 1.34+6.5%
Under
23.9%
@ 3.07-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.37
Betano
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.34
Under
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.21
Superbet
3.05
Unibet
3.05
Athletic Club over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
42.0%
@ 2.68+7.0%
Under
58.0%
@ 1.44-7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.85
Marathonbet
2.77
BetVictor
2.75
1xBet
2.65
Superbet
2.65
Under
1xBet
1.46
Pinnacle
1.45
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
Athletic Club over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
17.5%
@ 6.57+3.3%
Under
82.5%
@ 1.09-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Marathonbet
6.85
BetVictor
6.50
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Athletic Club over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.8%
@ 15.67-0.3%
Under
94.2%
@ 1.02+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
17.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Celta Vigo, so a minus line means Celta Vigo give that many goals of a start and Athletic Club receive them. At -1, Celta Vigo must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Celta Vigo win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Celta Vigo)Actual: Athletic Club
Celta Vigo -2
9.2%
@ 12.32+2.0%
Draw -2
12.9%
@ 7.15+0.4%
Athletic Club +2
77.9%
@ 1.11-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
14.00
Superbet
13.00
10Bet
13.00
Unibet
12.00
Draw
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
8.00
Superbet
7.70
Unibet
7.50
10Bet
7.00
Away
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Unibet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Handicap -1 (Celta Vigo)Actual: Athletic Club
Celta Vigo -1
22.1%
@ 5.53+5.8%
Draw -1
19.7%
@ 4.15-2.0%
Athletic Club +1
58.1%
@ 1.46-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
6.00
Superbet
5.50
10Bet
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.40
Draw
Superbet
4.35
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.20
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Away
Marathonbet
1.51
Superbet
1.47
10Bet
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Handicap +1 (Celta Vigo)Actual: Athletic Club
Celta Vigo +1
67.8%
@ 1.45+5.2%
Draw +1
16.9%
@ 4.19-4.6%
Athletic Club -1
15.3%
@ 5.69-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.47
10Bet
1.45
Unibet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Draw
Superbet
4.35
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
Betfair
4.20
10Bet
4.00
Away
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.65
Superbet
5.60
10Bet
5.50
Handicap +2 (Celta Vigo)Actual: Draw
Celta Vigo +2
84.7%
@ 1.10+3.0%
Draw +2
9.7%
@ 7.62-2.2%
Athletic Club -2
5.6%
@ 14.00-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Betfair
1.08
Draw
Betfair
8.50
Bet365
8.00
10Bet
7.00
Unibet
7.00
Away
Betfair
15.00
Bet365
15.00
Unibet
13.00
10Bet
13.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Celta Vigo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.53
0.79
0.57
0.31
0.50
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.29
1.00
0.33
0.00
0.25
vs Similar (23)
0.57
0.61
0.73
0.64
0.42
0.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Athletic Club) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Athletic Club
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.80
0.62
0.54
0.53
1.00
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.80
1.00
0.50
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.65
0.60
0.60
0.29
0.71
vs Weaker (8)
0.62
1.12
0.00
0.00
0.71
1.29
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Celta Vigo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
71.5%
@ 1.45+6.9%
Under 0.5
28.5%
@ 2.65-6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.52
1xBet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.49
Superbet
1.47
Pinnacle
1.46
Under
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.79
William Hil
2.70
Superbet
2.70
10Bet
2.65
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
35.4%
@ 3.12+5.2%
Under 1.5
64.6%
@ 1.34-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.27
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
Betano
3.20
Marathonbet
3.18
Under
Superbet
1.37
10Bet
1.36
William Hil
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.35
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.1%
@ 8.14+0.6%
Under 2.5
87.9%
@ 1.06-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
9.50
Bet365
9.00
1xBet
8.30
Marathonbet
8.30
Superbet
8.30
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.07
William Hil
1.07
10Bet
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Celta Vigo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
55.6%
@ 2.21+13.4%
Under
44.4%
@ 1.61-13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.28
Betano
2.25
Unibet
2.20
Superbet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.19
Under
10Bet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.64
Superbet
1.61
Betano
1.60
Marathonbet
1.60
Celta Vigo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
19.0%
@ 7.23+6.2%
Under
81.0%
@ 1.06-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.80
Marathonbet
7.80
10Bet
7.00
Unibet
7.00
Superbet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Celta Vigo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.6%
@ 18.75-1.5%
Under
96.4%
@ 1.01+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
25.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Athletic Club over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
35.3%
@ 2.23-6.5%
Under
64.7%
@ 1.60+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.31
Betano
2.27
1xBet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.25
Superbet
2.20
Under
10Bet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.63
Superbet
1.60
Betano
1.60
Unibet
1.58
Athletic Club over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
10.0%
@ 7.37-2.5%
Under
90.0%
@ 1.05+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.10
1xBet
8.10
Superbet
7.10
Unibet
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
Athletic Club over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 19.50-3.1%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.01+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
26.00
Betano
13.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Celta Vigo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.80
0.79
1.00
0.81
0.62
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
0.57
0.33
1.00
1.00
0.25
vs Similar (23)
0.83
0.87
0.91
1.00
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Athletic Club) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Athletic Club
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.93
0.62
0.92
0.82
0.94
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.80
0.00
1.50
0.67
2.00
vs Similar (17)
0.65
0.88
0.60
0.80
0.71
1.00
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
0.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.43
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Celta Vigo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
80.3%
@ 1.28+7.1%
Under 0.5
19.7%
@ 3.49-7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.30
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Under
Superbet
3.55
Unibet
3.55
Bet365
3.50
Betano
3.50
Marathonbet
3.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
46.8%
@ 2.29+5.9%
Under 1.5
53.2%
@ 1.58-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.37
1xBet
2.36
Marathonbet
2.36
10Bet
2.30
William Hil
2.25
Under
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.61
Superbet
1.59
Bet365
1.57
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
21.4%
@ 5.18+3.3%
Under 2.5
78.6%
@ 1.14-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.45
1xBet
5.35
Marathonbet
5.35
10Bet
5.10
Under
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.15
William Hil
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Celta Vigo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
62.6%
@ 1.84+12.4%
Under
37.4%
@ 1.86-12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.84
1xBet
1.84
Betano
1.83
Under
Betano
1.91
1xBet
1.86
Marathonbet
1.86
Superbet
1.83
Celta Vigo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
23.5%
@ 5.23+5.8%
Under
76.5%
@ 1.13-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.40
1xBet
5.40
10Bet
5.25
Superbet
5.25
Betano
4.85
Under
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
Celta Vigo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.9%
@ 13.88+0.0%
Under
93.1%
@ 1.02-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
17.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Athletic Club over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
49.1%
@ 1.86-0.6%
Under
50.9%
@ 1.84+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.87
Superbet
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Betano
1.85
Under
Betano
1.88
1xBet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.83
Superbet
1.83
Athletic Club over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.4%
@ 5.35-2.9%
Under
85.6%
@ 1.12+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.60
1xBet
5.60
Superbet
5.30
10Bet
5.25
Betano
5.00
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Athletic Club over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.9%
@ 13.88-4.0%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.02+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
17.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.4%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
96.2%
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-0.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
94.2%
1.02
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
-0.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
91.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-2.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
90.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-3.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.0%
1.05
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
+2.5%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.9%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.07
William Hil
1.07
10Bet
1.07
-0.6%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
85.6%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
84.7%
1.10
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Betfair
1.08
-
+3.0%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
82.5%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
-3.3%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
82.0%
1.18
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.15
-
-
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
81.0%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
-6.2%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
80.9%
1.33
1xBet
1.35
Superbet
1.35
Betano
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
Unibet
1.33
+10.8%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.3%
1.28
Superbet
1.30
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.28
+7.1%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
80.0%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Unibet
1.07
-8.1%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
79.5%
1.16
Superbet
1.22
Betano
1.17
Unibet
1.17
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.6%
1.14
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.15
William Hil
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-3.3%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
77.9%
1.11
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Unibet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
-2.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
76.9%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
1xBet
1.09
Unibet
1.09
-8.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
76.5%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
-5.8%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
76.1%
1.34
1xBet
1.37
Betano
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.34
+6.5%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.8%
1.36
Betano
1.40
Pinnacle
1.38
10Bet
1.38
BetVictor
1.38
Superbet
1.37
+6.8%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
74.2%
1.27
1xBet
1.27
-
-
-
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
74.1%
1.34
Marathonbet
1.38
1xBet
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.35
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.1%
1.24
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Betfair
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-3.2%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.5%
1.45
Betano
1.52
1xBet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.49
Superbet
1.47
Pinnacle
1.46
+6.9%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
71.2%
1.39
Betano
1.44
Superbet
1.42
Unibet
1.37
Pinnacle
1.34
-
+4.5%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Celta Vigo
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Iago Aspas25%
Marcos Alonso0%
I. Radu0%
Javi Galán0%
Ferrán Jutglà0%
Sergio Carreira0%
I. Moriba0%
Javi Rueda0%
W. Swedberg0%
Pablo Durán0%
Hugo Álvarez0%
Yoel Lago0%
Miguel Román0%
Javi Rodríguez0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Marcos Alonso33%
I. Radu25%
Sergio Carreira25%
Javi Rueda25%
Yoel Lago25%
Iago Aspas0%
Javi Galán0%
Ferrán Jutglà0%
I. Moriba0%
W. Swedberg0%
Pablo Durán0%
Hugo Álvarez0%
Miguel Román0%
Javi Rodríguez0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Miguel Román25%
Marcos Alonso0%
I. Radu0%
Iago Aspas0%
Javi Galán0%
Ferrán Jutglà0%
Sergio Carreira0%
I. Moriba0%
Javi Rueda0%
W. Swedberg0%
Pablo Durán0%
Hugo Álvarez0%
Yoel Lago0%
Javi Rodríguez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Marcos Alonso0%
I. Radu0%
Iago Aspas0%
Javi Galán0%
Ferrán Jutglà0%
Sergio Carreira0%
I. Moriba0%
Javi Rueda0%
W. Swedberg0%
Pablo Durán0%
Hugo Álvarez0%
Yoel Lago0%
Miguel Román0%
Javi Rodríguez0%
Athletic Club
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Álex Berenguer33%
Aymeric Laporte0%
Unai Simón0%
Gorka Guruzeta0%
Iñaki Williams0%
Oihan Sancet0%
Nico Williams0%
Beñat Gerenabarrena0%
Peio Canales0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Gorka Guruzeta67%
Beñat Gerenabarrena33%
Aymeric Laporte0%
Álex Berenguer0%
Unai Simón0%
Iñaki Williams0%
Oihan Sancet0%
Nico Williams0%
Peio Canales0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Iñaki Williams33%
Aymeric Laporte0%
Álex Berenguer0%
Unai Simón0%
Gorka Guruzeta0%
Oihan Sancet0%
Nico Williams0%
Beñat Gerenabarrena0%
Peio Canales0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Oihan Sancet33%
Aymeric Laporte0%
Álex Berenguer0%
Unai Simón0%
Gorka Guruzeta0%
Iñaki Williams0%
Nico Williams0%
Beñat Gerenabarrena0%
Peio Canales0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
RS (20)
€89m
DLC (29)
€84m
ELC (27)
€79m
RV (23)
€76m
OSA (22)
€71m
ALA (25)
€68m
MAL (27)
€41m
Celta Vigo's squad is €78m less valuable than Athletic Club's (€163m vs €241m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
DLC (9)
€49m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
GET (5)
€36m
ELC (13)
€34m
RS (7)
€34m
RV (10)
€30m
MAL (11)
€26m
OSA (8)
€25m
ALA (8)
€24m
Celta Vigo's attack is €50m less valuable than Athletic Club's (€57m vs €106m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
GET (6)
€28m
RS (5)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
LEV (5)
€16m
DLC (7)
€13m
OSA (4)
€12m
ELC (5)
€12m
RV (4)
€9m
MAL (5)
€6m
Celta Vigo's midfield is €22m less valuable than Athletic Club's (€35m vs €57m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
RV (9)
€36m
OSA (10)
€33m
ELC (9)
€33m
RS (8)
€28m
GET (13)
€26m
DLC (13)
€22m
LEV (11)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
MAL (11)
€9m
Celta Vigo's defence is €6m less valuable than Athletic Club's (€71m vs €77m).
Spain: La Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
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Barcelona
Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid
Alaves
Osasuna
Sevilla
Real Betis
Deportivo La Coruna
Levante
Racing Santander
Real Sociedad
Espanyol
Getafe
Villarreal
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
Elche
Malaga