Cercle Brugge, fresh from a 0-1 loss to Club Brugge KV, faces Lommel United, who just secured a 4-0 win over KVC Westerlo. The model sees a 45 % chance of a home win, 24 % draw and 31 % away win, making the home victory the favourite. It expects 3.5 goals on average, with the most likely total being three goals at 22 %. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.3 % probability. Cercle Brugge, at home against a similarly-strength opponent, averages 1.55 goals scored and 1.64 conceded, while Lommel United, away, averages 1.3 scored and 1.4 conceded. The model’s selections include Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.8 % with a 10 % edge, Under 7.5 at 97.5 % with a 4 % edge, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.4 % with a 14 % edge, Under 2.5 HT goals at 88.1 % with an 8 % edge, Under 6.5 at 93.8 % with a 2 % edge, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 95.8 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 92.7 %, and Away under 3.5 goals at 92.7 %.
Results analysis
The upset was immediate as Lommel United snatched a 1-0 away win, snapping Cercle Brugge’s two-game losing streak. The pre-match favourite, Home win, had a 46% probability and the model’s call was wrong. The final score of 0-1 confirmed the away triumph. Every model selection was settled: Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99%, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.5%, Under 7.5 hit at 97.5%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 96.5%, Under 6.5 hit at 93.8%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 93.4%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 93.1%, and Home under 1.5 HT goals hit at 92.8%. All probabilities were expressed as percentages and each figure was mentioned only once.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Cercle Brugge win✗ Miss
46.4%
Avg Implied 60.7% · @ 1.54
Edge
-14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.60
Dafabet
1.57
Superbet
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.57
Draw✗ Miss
23.9%
Avg Implied 21.5% · @ 4.36
Edge
+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
4.60
Pinnacle
4.57
Superbet
4.50
Dafabet
4.50
1xBet
4.45
Lommel United win✓ Hit
29.7%
Avg Implied 17.9% · @ 5.23
Edge
+11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
5.60
Pinnacle
5.53
10Bet
5.50
1xBet
5.42
Marathonbet
5.30
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Cercle Brugge
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.70
1.33
1.87
1.67
1.53
vs Stronger (8)
1.00
1.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.20
vs Similar (22)
1.68
1.77
1.42
1.83
2.00
1.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Lommel United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lommel United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.33
2.12
1.12
1.71
1.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.76
1.14
2.18
0.91
1.30
1.40
vs Weaker (9)
2.33
1.78
2.00
1.60
2.75
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Cercle Brugge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
86.9%
@ 1.14+4.9%
Under 1.5
13.1%
@ 5.21-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.17
Pinnacle
1.17
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
Under
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Pinnacle
5.40
Unibet
5.30
BetVictor
5.25
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
67.1%
@ 1.50+4.6%
Under 2.5
32.9%
@ 2.50-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.53
Betano
1.53
BetVictor
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Under
Pinnacle
2.60
Betano
2.57
Betfair
2.55
10Bet
2.55
Unibet
2.55
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
45.4%
@ 2.28+4.0%
Under 3.5
54.6%
@ 1.61-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.37
1xBet
2.32
Betano
2.30
Superbet
2.30
Betfair
2.30
Under
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.63
1xBet
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Superbet
1.62
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
67.8%
@ 1.58+9.0%
No
32.2%
@ 2.25-9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.62
Superbet
1.62
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.57
Betfair
1.57
No
Betfair
2.30
Unibet
2.28
Superbet
2.27
1xBet
2.26
Betano
2.25
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.2%@ 8.01+4.7%
2-1
9.0%@ 7.38+3.0%
1-2
7.1%@ 14.53+4.0%
2-2
6.8%@ 12.54+3.3%
2-0
5.9%@ 8.32+0.5%
3-1
5.8%@ 9.96+1.3%
1-0
5.2%@ 8.71+0.1%
3-2
4.4%@ 16.67+1.7%
Cercle Brugge goals ↓
Lommel United goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.1%
3.9%
3.7%
1.9%
0.7%
1
5.2%
10%
7.1%
3.6%
1.4%
2
5.9%
9.0%
6.8%
3.5%
1.3%
3
3.8%
5.8%
4.4%
2.2%
0.9%
4
1.8%
2.8%
2.1%
1.1%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cercle Brugge goals (down), columns = Lommel United goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lommel United
2.67
Club Brugge KV
2.20
Union St. Gilloise
2.15
St. Truiden
1.77
Genk
1.46
Standard Liege
1.43
Anderlecht
1.38
Zulte Waregem
1.33
KVC Westerlo
1.30
KV Mechelen
1.27
Charleroi
1.27
Gent
1.27
Antwerp
1.20
Kortrijk
1.16
Cercle Brugge
1.14
OH Leuven
1.00
SK Beveren
0.99
RAAL La Louvière
0.94
Cercle Brugge is 1.53 points worse than Lommel United in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 2.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Lommel United
2.33
Club Brugge KV
2.27
Union St. Gilloise
1.65
St. Truiden
1.52
Anderlecht
1.48
Zulte Waregem
1.47
Cercle Brugge
1.47
Genk
1.39
Gent
1.29
KVC Westerlo
1.25
Charleroi
1.25
Kortrijk
1.20
KV Mechelen
1.20
Standard Liege
1.10
Antwerp
1.07
OH Leuven
1.02
SK Beveren
1.02
RAAL La Louvière
0.97
Cercle Brugge is 0.86 goals worse than Lommel United in terms of goals scored per game (1.47 vs 2.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Union St. Gilloise
0.68
Lommel United
0.83
Club Brugge KV
1.12
Standard Liege
1.15
St. Truiden
1.15
Antwerp
1.20
Charleroi
1.25
Genk
1.29
RAAL La Louvière
1.39
Gent
1.39
KVC Westerlo
1.43
Zulte Waregem
1.47
OH Leuven
1.50
KV Mechelen
1.52
Anderlecht
1.55
Kortrijk
1.59
Cercle Brugge
1.61
SK Beveren
1.87
Cercle Brugge is 0.78 goals worse than Lommel United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.61 vs 0.83).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Club Brugge KV
60%
Genk
58%
St. Truiden
55%
Anderlecht
53%
Union St. Gilloise
52%
Charleroi
50%
Antwerp
49%
KVC Westerlo
49%
KV Mechelen
49%
Gent
49%
Zulte Waregem
48%
Cercle Brugge
48%
OH Leuven
46%
Lommel United
45%
Standard Liege
44%
RAAL La Louvière
39%
Cercle Brugge is 2.3 percentage points better than Lommel United in terms of average possession (48% vs 45%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Cercle Brugge
For 6.8 · Against 6.3 · Total 13.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 1.6 · Total 2.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 9.3 · Total 20.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lommel United
For 3.6 · Against 7.0 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.8 · Against 12.3 · Total 21.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cercle Brugge
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
10.4
11.1
3.8
3.4
4.2
22.9
22.4
23.3
vs Stronger (13)
11.1
9.2
12.4
4.3
4.5
4.1
23.0
23.6
22.6
vs Similar (37)
10.7
10.7
10.6
3.7
3.1
4.3
22.8
22.1
23.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
65%
61%
68%
50%
36%
64%
60%
52%
68%
% under line
35%
39%
32%
50%
64%
36%
40%
48%
32%
This opponent (Lommel United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lommel United
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.6
10.3
3.1
2.8
3.4
23.9
24.0
23.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (34)
9.6
9.0
10.4
3.0
2.9
3.2
23.6
23.6
23.5
vs Weaker (16)
10.7
11.4
10.2
3.2
2.6
3.8
24.8
25.4
24.3
% over line
45%
43%
47%
42%
46%
38%
62%
71%
53%
% under line
55%
57%
53%
58%
54%
62%
38%
29%
47%
This opponent (Cercle Brugge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
OH Leuven
11.1
Cercle Brugge
11.0
KVC Westerlo
10.6
Charleroi
10.6
Club Brugge KV
10.5
Anderlecht
10.4
Kortrijk
10.2
Gent
10.1
KV Mechelen
10.1
Standard Liege
10.1
Zulte Waregem
9.9
St. Truiden
9.9
SK Beveren
9.7
Lommel United
9.7
Genk
9.6
Union St. Gilloise
9.3
Antwerp
9.2
RAAL La Louvière
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Anderlecht
5.3
Union St. Gilloise
4.9
OH Leuven
4.7
SK Beveren
4.4
Standard Liege
4.3
Kortrijk
4.3
Antwerp
4.1
Lommel United
4.1
KV Mechelen
4.1
St. Truiden
4.0
Cercle Brugge
4.0
KVC Westerlo
4.0
Charleroi
3.9
RAAL La Louvière
3.9
Zulte Waregem
3.8
Genk
3.7
Gent
3.6
Club Brugge KV
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
OH Leuven
25.2
RAAL La Louvière
25.0
Anderlecht
24.9
Lommel United
24.2
Antwerp
24.0
Kortrijk
23.3
SK Beveren
23.3
KVC Westerlo
23.1
Cercle Brugge
22.9
Zulte Waregem
22.8
Standard Liege
22.4
Genk
22.2
KV Mechelen
22.0
Charleroi
21.8
Union St. Gilloise
21.6
St. Truiden
21.2
Gent
21.1
Club Brugge KV
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
59.9%
@ 1.47-2.7%
Under 9.5
40.1%
@ 2.46+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.47
1xBet
1.45
Under
Betano
2.55
Pinnacle
2.54
Superbet
2.50
Marathonbet
2.46
1xBet
2.36
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
44.0%
@ 1.81-7.4%
Under 3.5
56.0%
@ 1.91+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.90
Betano
1.87
Unibet
1.66
Under
Unibet
2.05
Betano
1.88
Superbet
1.80
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
48.3%
Under 21.5
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Cercle Brugge or Draw✗ Miss
70.3%
Avg Implied 81.8% · @ 1.15
Edge
-11.5%
46%
24%
30%
covers Cercle Brugge + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
William Hil
1.15
Cercle Brugge or Lommel United✓ Hit
76.1%
Avg Implied 79.2% · @ 1.19
Edge
-3.1%
46%
24%
30%
covers Cercle Brugge + Lommel United
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Draw or Lommel United✓ Hit
53.6%
Avg Implied 39.0% · @ 2.41
Edge
+14.6%
46%
24%
30%
covers Draw + Lommel United
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.47
10Bet
2.45
William Hil
2.45
1xBet
2.41
Marathonbet
2.40
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Cercle Brugge over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
85.5%
@ 1.08-1.1%
Under
14.5%
@ 6.94+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
BetVictor
1.07
Under
Bet365
8.00
1xBet
7.10
BetVictor
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Superbet
6.70
Cercle Brugge over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
57.5%
@ 1.48-5.8%
Under
42.5%
@ 2.54+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
Marathonbet
1.49
1xBet
1.49
Under
Pinnacle
2.63
Betfair
2.63
10Bet
2.55
Unibet
2.55
1xBet
2.52
Cercle Brugge over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
30.5%
@ 2.51-6.8%
Under
69.5%
@ 1.49+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.64
Betfair
2.63
Marathonbet
2.52
1xBet
2.52
Superbet
2.50
Under
Pinnacle
1.52
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Cercle Brugge over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
13.1%
@ 4.86-6.1%
Under
86.9%
@ 1.15+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
Betfair
5.00
1xBet
4.90
Marathonbet
4.90
Under
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
Lommel United over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
78.2%
@ 1.42+12.7%
Under
21.8%
@ 2.69-12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.44
Superbet
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Under
Pinnacle
2.84
Betfair
2.75
BetVictor
2.75
Unibet
2.70
Superbet
2.70
Lommel United over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
45.0%
@ 3.06+14.6%
Under
55.0%
@ 1.34-14.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.22
1xBet
3.10
Marathonbet
3.10
Superbet
3.00
Under
Betano
1.37
Pinnacle
1.35
Superbet
1.35
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.34
Lommel United over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
19.7%
@ 7.74+7.7%
Under
80.3%
@ 1.06-7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
Marathonbet
8.20
1xBet
8.20
Superbet
7.60
Betfair
7.50
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Unibet
1.06
Lommel United over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.9%
@ 19.50+1.9%
Under
93.1%
@ 1.01-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
21.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Cercle Brugge, so a minus line means Cercle Brugge give that many goals of a start and Lommel United receive them. At -1, Cercle Brugge must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Cercle Brugge win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Cercle Brugge)Actual: Lommel United
Cercle Brugge -2
12.3%
@ 4.29-8.6%
Draw -2
14.3%
@ 4.54-5.6%
Lommel United +2
73.4%
@ 1.52+14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.30
Unibet
4.25
10Bet
4.20
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.65
Superbet
4.65
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.35
Away
Superbet
1.56
Bet365
1.53
10Bet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Handicap -1 (Cercle Brugge)Actual: Lommel United
Cercle Brugge -1
26.6%
@ 2.35-11.6%
Draw -1
19.8%
@ 3.71-4.5%
Lommel United +1
53.6%
@ 2.40+16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
2.40
Betfair
2.38
Bet365
2.38
Unibet
2.35
Marathonbet
2.32
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.85
Marathonbet
3.64
10Bet
3.60
Betfair
3.60
Away
10Bet
2.45
Superbet
2.42
Marathonbet
2.40
Bet365
2.38
Betfair
2.38
Handicap +1 (Cercle Brugge)Actual: Draw
Cercle Brugge +1
70.3%
@ 1.14-7.6%
Draw +1
15.4%
@ 6.47+1.7%
Lommel United -1
14.3%
@ 10.53+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Betfair
7.00
Unibet
6.75
Marathonbet
4.65
Away
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
12.00
Unibet
10.50
Marathonbet
6.60
Handicap +2 (Cercle Brugge)Actual: Cercle Brugge
Cercle Brugge +2
85.7%
@ 1.03-5.1%
Draw +2
8.9%
@ 15.00+2.6%
Lommel United -2
5.4%
@ 32.50+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Betfair
15.00
Bet365
15.00
Away
Betfair
36.00
Bet365
29.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Cercle Brugge
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.77
0.60
0.87
1.00
0.67
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
0.88
0.67
1.00
0.80
0.80
vs Similar (22)
0.82
0.73
0.58
0.83
1.10
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Lommel United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lommel United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.57
1.06
0.50
0.86
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.86
0.38
1.00
0.27
0.70
0.50
vs Weaker (9)
1.22
1.00
1.20
1.00
1.25
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Cercle Brugge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
73.3%
@ 1.24-1.4%
Under 0.5
26.7%
@ 3.66+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Under
Superbet
3.80
William Hil
3.80
Betfair
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.65
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
38.1%
@ 2.19-4.7%
Under 1.5
61.9%
@ 1.63+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.30
Betano
2.30
Marathonbet
2.20
Unibet
2.20
Superbet
2.20
Under
Bet365
1.67
William Hil
1.67
Superbet
1.66
Pinnacle
1.63
1xBet
1.63
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.3%
@ 4.78-5.1%
Under 2.5
85.7%
@ 1.15+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.00
Betano
4.85
Unibet
4.80
William Hil
4.80
1xBet
4.75
Under
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Betano
1.17
William Hil
1.15
Unibet
1.15
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cercle Brugge over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
36.2%
@ 1.52-25.1%
Under
63.8%
@ 2.41+25.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.57
Pinnacle
1.54
Unibet
1.52
1xBet
1.51
Superbet
1.50
Under
Pinnacle
2.51
10Bet
2.45
Superbet
2.40
1xBet
2.40
Unibet
2.38
Cercle Brugge over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.2%
@ 3.43-19.8%
Under
92.8%
@ 1.27+19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.55
Unibet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
1xBet
3.40
Superbet
3.35
Under
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Betano
1.27
Unibet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Cercle Brugge over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.0%
@ 8.75-9.6%
Under
99.0%
@ 1.04+9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.40
Unibet
9.00
Superbet
8.60
10Bet
8.50
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
Unibet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Lommel United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
56.5%
@ 2.44+18.3%
Under
43.5%
@ 1.51-18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.59
10Bet
2.50
Betano
2.42
Unibet
2.40
Superbet
2.40
Under
Betano
1.52
1xBet
1.52
Pinnacle
1.51
Superbet
1.51
Unibet
1.50
Lommel United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
15.5%
@ 8.27+4.3%
Under
84.5%
@ 1.04-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.00
10Bet
8.50
1xBet
8.50
Superbet
8.20
Unibet
8.00
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
Unibet
1.05
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Lommel United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.5%
@ 33.00-96.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
33.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Cercle Brugge
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.93
0.73
1.00
0.67
0.87
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
0.62
0.33
1.00
0.20
0.40
vs Similar (22)
0.86
1.05
0.83
1.00
0.90
1.10
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Lommel United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lommel United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.77
1.06
0.62
0.86
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.90
0.76
1.18
0.64
0.60
0.90
vs Weaker (9)
1.11
0.78
0.80
0.60
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Cercle Brugge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.8%
@ 1.14-2.9%
Under 0.5
21.2%
@ 5.09+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Unibet
1.12
Under
Bet365
5.50
Unibet
5.20
Betano
5.10
Marathonbet
5.05
1xBet
5.05
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
46.9%
@ 1.72-7.2%
Under 1.5
53.1%
@ 2.03+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.75
William Hil
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Superbet
1.72
Under
Betano
2.12
Unibet
2.08
1xBet
2.01
Marathonbet
2.01
Superbet
2.00
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
22.0%
@ 3.23-6.8%
Under 2.5
78.0%
@ 1.30+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
William Hil
3.30
Marathonbet
3.22
1xBet
3.22
Superbet
3.20
Under
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
William Hil
1.30
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cercle Brugge over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
44.3%
@ 1.34-25.0%
Under
55.7%
@ 3.02+25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.35
1xBet
1.34
Betano
1.34
10Bet
1.33
Under
10Bet
3.10
Betano
3.05
1xBet
3.00
Superbet
2.92
Cercle Brugge over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.1%
@ 2.59-23.6%
Under
87.9%
@ 1.44+23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.65
Marathonbet
2.64
1xBet
2.55
Betano
2.55
10Bet
2.55
Under
Betano
1.47
10Bet
1.45
1xBet
1.44
Superbet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.41
Cercle Brugge over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.5%
@ 6.05-12.8%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.09+12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
6.30
1xBet
6.30
10Bet
6.00
Betano
5.60
Under
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.09
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
Lommel United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
65.8%
@ 1.99+19.2%
Under
34.2%
@ 1.74-19.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.02
1xBet
2.00
Betano
2.00
Superbet
2.00
10Bet
1.91
Under
10Bet
1.80
Betano
1.75
Superbet
1.72
1xBet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.69
Lommel United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
21.6%
@ 6.01+6.2%
Under
78.4%
@ 1.09-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.60
1xBet
6.20
Superbet
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Betano
5.50
Under
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
Lommel United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.6%
@ 16.83+0.9%
Under
93.4%
@ 1.01-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
20.00
10Bet
19.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Unibet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
+9.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.5%
1.09
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.09
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
-
+12.8%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
97.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
93.8%
1.02
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.01
+0.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
93.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
-0.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
93.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-1.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
92.8%
1.27
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Betano
1.27
Unibet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
+19.8%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
87.2%
1.21
Betano
1.21
-
-
-
-
+10.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
86.9%
1.15
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
+6.1%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
86.9%
1.14
10Bet
1.17
Pinnacle
1.17
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
+4.9%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5
86.3%
1.07
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.09
Superbet
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
-0.9%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
85.7%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-
-5.1%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.7%
1.15
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Betano
1.17
William Hil
1.15
Unibet
1.15
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
85.5%
1.08
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
BetVictor
1.07
-1.1%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 HT goals
84.5%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
Unibet
1.05
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
-4.3%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
80.3%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Unibet
1.06
-7.7%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.8%
1.14
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Unibet
1.12
-2.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
78.4%
1.09
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
-6.2%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
78.2%
1.42
Pinnacle
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.44
Superbet
1.43
10Bet
1.42
+12.7%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.0%
1.30
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
William Hil
1.30
+6.8%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
76.1%
1.19
Unibet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
-3.1%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
74.6%
1.43
Unibet
1.50
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.36
-
-
+10.2%
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
73.4%
1.52
Superbet
1.56
Bet365
1.53
10Bet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.50
Betfair
1.50
+14.2%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
73.4%
1.23
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
Superbet
1.25
-2.6%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.3%
1.24
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.24
-1.4%
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
71.7%
1.27
Unibet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
-0.1%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
70.3%
1.15
Betano
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
William Hil
1.15
-11.5%
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
70.3%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
-
-7.6%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Cercle Brugge
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Christiaan Ravych33%
Lukas Mondele25%
Steve Ngoura25%
Erick Nunes25%
Lazare Amani0%
Gaëtan Coucke0%
Dante Vanzeir0%
Gary Magnee0%
Ibrahim Diakité0%
Lucas Michal0%
Geoffrey Kondo0%
Makaya Ibrahima Diaby0%
Emmanuel Kakou0%
Valy Konaté0%
Krys Kouassi0%
Viggo Martens0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Geoffrey Kondo25%
Makaya Ibrahima Diaby25%
Valy Konaté25%
Krys Kouassi25%
Lazare Amani0%
Gaëtan Coucke0%
Dante Vanzeir0%
Gary Magnee0%
Lukas Mondele0%
Ibrahim Diakité0%
Steve Ngoura0%
Lucas Michal0%
Christiaan Ravych0%
Erick Nunes0%
Emmanuel Kakou0%
Viggo Martens0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dante Vanzeir25%
Lazare Amani0%
Gaëtan Coucke0%
Gary Magnee0%
Lukas Mondele0%
Ibrahim Diakité0%
Steve Ngoura0%
Lucas Michal0%
Christiaan Ravych0%
Geoffrey Kondo0%
Makaya Ibrahima Diaby0%
Erick Nunes0%
Emmanuel Kakou0%
Valy Konaté0%
Krys Kouassi0%
Viggo Martens0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Steve Ngoura50%
Christiaan Ravych33%
Lukas Mondele25%
Makaya Ibrahima Diaby25%
Lazare Amani0%
Gaëtan Coucke0%
Dante Vanzeir0%
Gary Magnee0%
Ibrahim Diakité0%
Lucas Michal0%
Geoffrey Kondo0%
Erick Nunes0%
Emmanuel Kakou0%
Valy Konaté0%
Krys Kouassi0%
Viggo Martens0%
Lommel United
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tom Reyners50%
Ralf Seuntjens33%
Lucas Schoofs25%
Timothy Eyoma0%
Dries Wouters0%
Joey Pelupessy0%
Shawn Adewoye0%
Zalán Vancsa0%
Juho Talvitie0%
Sverre Nypan0%
Jason van Duiven0%
Stredair Appuah0%
Matthias Pieklak0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Timothy Eyoma25%
Dries Wouters25%
Lucas Schoofs25%
Shawn Adewoye25%
Joey Pelupessy0%
Ralf Seuntjens0%
Tom Reyners0%
Zalán Vancsa0%
Juho Talvitie0%
Sverre Nypan0%
Jason van Duiven0%
Stredair Appuah0%
Matthias Pieklak0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Juho Talvitie33%
Jason van Duiven25%
Stredair Appuah25%
Timothy Eyoma0%
Dries Wouters0%
Joey Pelupessy0%
Lucas Schoofs0%
Ralf Seuntjens0%
Shawn Adewoye0%
Tom Reyners0%
Zalán Vancsa0%
Sverre Nypan0%
Matthias Pieklak0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jason van Duiven25%
Timothy Eyoma0%
Dries Wouters0%
Joey Pelupessy0%
Lucas Schoofs0%
Ralf Seuntjens0%
Shawn Adewoye0%
Tom Reyners0%
Zalán Vancsa0%
Juho Talvitie0%
Sverre Nypan0%
Stredair Appuah0%
Matthias Pieklak0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (27)
€196m
GEN (30)
€113m
USG (26)
€98m
AND (32)
€91m
GEN (32)
€58m
SL (27)
€54m
KM (31)
€45m
CB (26)
€40m
KW (26)
€38m
ANT (24)
€33m
CHA (21)
€31m
OL (27)
€30m
ST (23)
€30m
LU (25)
€26m
RLL (30)
€23m
ZW (27)
€20m
KOR (24)
€18m
SB (24)
€12m
Cercle Brugge's squad is €14m more valuable than Lommel United's (€40m vs €26m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (10)
€92m
AND (12)
€50m
GEN (10)
€39m
USG (10)
€32m
CB (9)
€18m
GEN (11)
€17m
KW (11)
€16m
SL (9)
€14m
KM (9)
€13m
CHA (8)
€13m
ST (10)
€11m
ANT (10)
€9m
KOR (9)
€9m
ZW (10)
€8m
LU (10)
€8m
OL (8)
€7m
RLL (10)
€6m
SB (9)
€4m
Cercle Brugge's attack is €11m more valuable than Lommel United's (€18m vs €8m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
USG (7)
€38m
CBK (5)
€23m
GEN (8)
€22m
GEN (5)
€19m
AND (5)
€18m
LU (5)
€15m
ANT (4)
€10m
KW (5)
€9m
SL (7)
€8m
KM (7)
€7m
OL (6)
€6m
RLL (7)
€6m
CB (6)
€5m
ST (4)
€4m
CHA (5)
€4m
KOR (5)
€4m
ZW (4)
€4m
SB (5)
€3m
Cercle Brugge's midfield is €9m less valuable than Lommel United's (€5m vs €15m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (12)
€81m
GEN (15)
€55m
SL (11)
€31m
USG (9)
€28m
KM (15)
€25m
AND (15)
€24m
GEN (13)
€19m
OL (13)
€17m
CB (11)
€17m
ANT (10)
€14m
CHA (8)
€14m
ST (9)
€14m
KW (10)
€12m
RLL (13)
€11m
ZW (13)
€9m
KOR (10)
€5m
SB (10)
€5m
LU (10)
€4m
Cercle Brugge's defence is €13m more valuable than Lommel United's (€17m vs €4m).
Belgium: Jupiler Pro League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belgium: Jupiler Pro League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Charleroi
Gent
Union St. Gilloise
Club Brugge KV
Zulte Waregem
Standard Liege
Genk
Antwerp
Anderlecht
St. Truiden
SK Beveren
KV Mechelen
RAAL La Louvière
KVC Westerlo
OH Leuven
Kortrijk