Charleroi is heavily favoured to win at home against KV Mechelen, with a 58% chance of victory, drawing 24% of the time, and KV Mechelen winning just 18% of the time. The model predicts a home win as the most likely outcome. Both teams have shown similar form at home and away, with Charleroi averaging 1.6 goals scored and 2.0 conceded at home, while KV Mechelen averages 1.17 goals scored and 2.67 conceded away from home.
The expected total number of goals is 2.9, with a most likely total of 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 11.4%. In recent form, Charleroi has been on a 3-game winning run, while KV Mechelen is coming off a draw.
The model's suggested selections include Over 1.5 with a 79.7% chance, Home or Draw with a 77% chance, and Home or Away with a 74.1% chance. Charleroi has a 58% chance of winning, a 24% chance of drawing, and a 18% chance of losing.
Results analysis
The win extends Charleroi’s four-game winning run, with a 2-0 triumph over KV Mechelen. The model had picked a home win at 59 % probability, and that call proved correct. The most likely scoreline of 2-0 also materialised, matching the model’s top forecast. Every suggested pick hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.1 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.9 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.9 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.4 %, Under 6.5 at 97.3 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.4 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 93.1 %, and Under 5.5 at 93.0 %. The selections were largely accurate, confirming the model’s predictions.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Charleroi win✓ Hit
59.5%
Avg Implied 55.7% · @ 1.68
Edge
+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.77
Unibet
1.71
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.70
Dafabet
1.69
Draw✗ Miss
23.1%
Avg Implied 24.6% · @ 3.80
Edge
-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.09
1xBet
3.92
BetVictor
3.90
Superbet
3.90
Dafabet
3.90
KV Mechelen win✗ Miss
17.4%
Avg Implied 19.7% · @ 4.74
Edge
-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
5.07
Betano
5.00
Bet365
5.00
1xBet
4.91
Dafabet
4.90
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Charleroi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.13
1.50
1.25
1.21
1.00
vs Stronger (9)
1.33
1.22
1.33
0.83
1.33
2.00
vs Similar (20)
1.35
1.05
1.60
1.50
1.10
0.60
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
2.00
-
-
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (KV Mechelen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KV Mechelen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.73
1.27
1.33
0.93
2.13
vs Stronger (12)
1.00
2.08
1.17
1.50
0.83
2.67
vs Similar (18)
1.17
1.50
1.33
1.22
1.00
1.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Charleroi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.4%
@ 1.22+4.8%
Under 1.5
18.6%
@ 4.00-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Unibet
1.23
Superbet
1.23
Under
Betfair
4.33
Pinnacle
4.21
Superbet
4.15
Bet365
4.00
BetVictor
4.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
58.1%
@ 1.74+3.9%
Under 2.5
41.9%
@ 2.07-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.80
Betano
1.78
Pinnacle
1.76
Unibet
1.76
Bet365
1.75
Under
Pinnacle
2.15
SBO
2.14
Superbet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
1xBet
2.10
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.7%
@ 2.84+2.8%
Under 3.5
64.3%
@ 1.40-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.00
Unibet
2.95
Pinnacle
2.90
888Sport
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Under
Betano
1.45
Pinnacle
1.44
Superbet
1.44
Betfair
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.1%
@ 1.70+1.4%
No
43.9%
@ 2.05-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.70
888Sport
1.70
10Bet
1.70
BetVictor
1.70
No
Betfair
2.15
Superbet
2.07
Betano
2.07
Bet365
2.05
William Hil
2.05
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.9%@ 6.76+4.4%
2-1
10.0%@ 7.33+3.9%
2-0 ✓
9.8%@ 7.81+4.2%
1-0
8.8%@ 7.05+2.5%
3-1
6.7%@ 11.75+2.9%
3-0
6.6%@ 12.25+3.0%
0-0
5.9%@ 11.63+2.1%
2-2
5.0%@ 13.11+1.7%
Charleroi goals ↓
KV Mechelen goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.9%
3.9%
2.5%
0.8%
0.2%
1
8.8%
11%
5.0%
1.7%
0.4%
2
9.8%
10.0%
5.0%
1.7%
0.4%
3
6.6%
6.7%
3.4%
1.1%
0.3%
4
3.3%
3.3%
1.7%
0.6%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Charleroi goals (down), columns = KV Mechelen goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lommel United
2.67
Club Brugge KV
2.20
Union St. Gilloise
2.15
St. Truiden
1.77
Genk
1.46
Standard Liege
1.43
Anderlecht
1.38
Zulte Waregem
1.33
KVC Westerlo
1.30
KV Mechelen
1.27
Charleroi
1.27
Gent
1.27
Antwerp
1.20
Kortrijk
1.16
Cercle Brugge
1.14
OH Leuven
1.00
SK Beveren
0.99
RAAL La Louvière
0.94
Charleroi and KV Mechelen are level in average points per game (both 1.27).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Lommel United
2.33
Club Brugge KV
2.27
Union St. Gilloise
1.65
St. Truiden
1.52
Anderlecht
1.48
Zulte Waregem
1.47
Cercle Brugge
1.47
Genk
1.39
Gent
1.29
KVC Westerlo
1.25
Charleroi
1.25
Kortrijk
1.20
KV Mechelen
1.20
Standard Liege
1.10
Antwerp
1.07
OH Leuven
1.02
SK Beveren
1.02
RAAL La Louvière
0.97
Charleroi is 0.05 goals better than KV Mechelen in terms of goals scored per game (1.25 vs 1.20).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Union St. Gilloise
0.68
Lommel United
0.83
Club Brugge KV
1.12
Standard Liege
1.15
St. Truiden
1.15
Antwerp
1.20
Charleroi
1.25
Genk
1.29
RAAL La Louvière
1.39
Gent
1.39
KVC Westerlo
1.43
Zulte Waregem
1.47
OH Leuven
1.50
KV Mechelen
1.52
Anderlecht
1.55
Kortrijk
1.59
Cercle Brugge
1.61
SK Beveren
1.87
Charleroi is 0.27 goals better than KV Mechelen in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.52).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Club Brugge KV
60%
Genk
58%
St. Truiden
55%
Anderlecht
53%
Union St. Gilloise
52%
Charleroi
50%
Antwerp
49%
KVC Westerlo
49%
KV Mechelen
49%
Gent
49%
Zulte Waregem
48%
Cercle Brugge
48%
OH Leuven
46%
Lommel United
45%
Standard Liege
44%
RAAL La Louvière
39%
Charleroi is 0.5 percentage points better than KV Mechelen in terms of average possession (50% vs 49%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Charleroi
For 6.8 · Against 4.9 · Total 11.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 10.4 · Total 20.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
KV Mechelen
For 3.5 · Against 3.5 · Total 7.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.5 · Against 12.7 · Total 22.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Charleroi
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
11.1
10.2
3.3
3.1
3.4
22.0
22.6
21.4
vs Stronger (13)
9.6
9.4
9.8
2.5
2.6
2.5
20.7
21.2
20.2
vs Similar (34)
10.8
11.8
9.9
3.8
3.5
4.1
22.3
22.7
21.9
vs Weaker (3)
13.5
9.0
18.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
23.5
27.0
20.0
% over line
56%
52%
59%
44%
44%
44%
53%
48%
59%
% under line
44%
48%
41%
56%
56%
56%
47%
52%
41%
This opponent (KV Mechelen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KV Mechelen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.4
10.0
4.0
4.5
3.4
21.9
22.5
21.4
vs Stronger (14)
8.6
8.7
8.6
4.7
6.1
3.3
22.5
23.1
21.9
vs Similar (35)
10.9
11.1
10.6
3.8
4.1
3.5
21.7
22.2
21.2
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
58%
42%
54%
56%
52%
48%
58%
38%
% under line
50%
42%
58%
46%
44%
48%
52%
42%
62%
This opponent (Charleroi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
OH Leuven
11.1
Cercle Brugge
10.8
Charleroi
10.7
Club Brugge KV
10.6
KVC Westerlo
10.6
Anderlecht
10.4
KV Mechelen
10.2
Kortrijk
10.2
Gent
10.1
Standard Liege
10.1
SK Beveren
10.0
Zulte Waregem
9.9
St. Truiden
9.8
Lommel United
9.6
Genk
9.6
Union St. Gilloise
9.3
Antwerp
9.3
RAAL La Louvière
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Anderlecht
5.3
Union St. Gilloise
4.9
OH Leuven
4.7
SK Beveren
4.5
Standard Liege
4.3
Kortrijk
4.3
Antwerp
4.2
St. Truiden
4.1
Cercle Brugge
4.1
Lommel United
4.0
KV Mechelen
4.0
KVC Westerlo
3.9
RAAL La Louvière
3.9
Charleroi
3.9
Zulte Waregem
3.8
Genk
3.8
Club Brugge KV
3.6
Gent
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
OH Leuven
25.2
Anderlecht
25.0
RAAL La Louvière
25.0
Lommel United
24.3
Antwerp
24.0
SK Beveren
23.6
Kortrijk
23.3
Cercle Brugge
23.1
KVC Westerlo
23.1
Zulte Waregem
23.0
Genk
22.5
Standard Liege
22.4
KV Mechelen
22.0
Charleroi
21.7
Union St. Gilloise
21.6
St. Truiden
21.3
Gent
21.1
Club Brugge KV
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.75
10Bet
1.70
Superbet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.65
Betano
1.62
Under
Pinnacle
2.20
Betano
2.20
Marathonbet
2.18
1xBet
2.12
Superbet
2.12
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.78
Superbet
1.76
Unibet
1.61
Under
Unibet
2.12
Betano
1.98
Superbet
1.95
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Charleroi or Draw✓ Hit
77.0%
Avg Implied 79.9% · @ 1.18
Edge
-2.8%
59%
23%
17%
covers Charleroi + Draw
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.20
888Sport
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.19
Unibet
1.19
Charleroi or KV Mechelen✓ Hit
74.1%
Avg Implied 75.9% · @ 1.24
Edge
-1.7%
59%
23%
17%
covers Charleroi + KV Mechelen
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.26
Unibet
1.26
888Sport
1.25
Draw or KV Mechelen✗ Miss
48.8%
Avg Implied 44.3% · @ 2.12
Edge
+4.6%
59%
23%
17%
covers Draw + KV Mechelen
Best 5 market prices
SBO
2.23
Betano
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Superbet
2.17
1xBet
2.16
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Charleroi over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
82.5%
@ 1.13+0.2%
Under
17.5%
@ 5.25-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
888Sport
1.13
Under
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
5.50
BetVictor
5.50
Superbet
5.30
Unibet
5.10
Charleroi over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
52.0%
@ 1.71-2.8%
Under
48.0%
@ 2.07+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.77
Bet365
1.73
Pinnacle
1.71
Unibet
1.71
Betano
1.70
Under
Pinnacle
2.19
1xBet
2.11
Marathonbet
2.11
BetVictor
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Charleroi over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
25.5%
@ 3.20-3.6%
Under
74.5%
@ 1.31+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.45
Pinnacle
3.26
Bet365
3.25
Unibet
3.25
888Sport
3.20
Under
Betano
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Charleroi over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
10.0%
@ 6.58-4.1%
Under
90.0%
@ 1.08+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
888Sport
7.00
Unibet
6.75
Betfair
6.50
Superbet
6.50
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Betfair
1.08
888Sport
1.08
KV Mechelen over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
66.9%
@ 1.47+3.5%
Under
33.1%
@ 2.54-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.52
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.49
BetVictor
1.47
Unibet
1.46
Under
Pinnacle
2.64
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
10Bet
2.55
BetVictor
2.50
KV Mechelen over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
30.3%
@ 3.32+2.2%
Under
69.7%
@ 1.30-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.56
Bet365
3.40
Superbet
3.35
1xBet
3.34
Marathonbet
3.34
Under
Betano
1.31
Pinnacle
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
KV Mechelen over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.1%
@ 8.90-0.4%
Under
89.9%
@ 1.04+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
888Sport
10.00
1xBet
9.20
Marathonbet
9.20
Superbet
8.70
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
888Sport
1.05
Betfair
1.05
KV Mechelen over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.6%
@ 23.12-1.6%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.01+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
29.00
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
25.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
888Sport
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Charleroi, so a minus line means Charleroi give that many goals of a start and KV Mechelen receive them. At -1, Charleroi must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Charleroi win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Charleroi)Actual: Draw
Charleroi -2
12.8%
@ 5.70-3.0%
Draw -2
16.0%
@ 4.84-2.6%
KV Mechelen +2
71.2%
@ 1.38+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
6.25
Bet365
6.00
Unibet
5.75
Superbet
5.35
Marathonbet
5.15
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.90
Superbet
4.85
10Bet
4.75
Unibet
4.70
Away
Superbet
1.43
Bet365
1.40
Marathonbet
1.38
Unibet
1.35
10Bet
1.33
Handicap -1 (Charleroi)Actual: Charleroi
Charleroi -1
28.8%
@ 2.84-2.9%
Draw -1
22.4%
@ 3.57-2.9%
KV Mechelen +1
48.8%
@ 2.09+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
3.00
Bet365
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Unibet
2.85
Superbet
2.77
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.70
Marathonbet
3.56
10Bet
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Away
Superbet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.14
Bet365
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Unibet
2.05
Handicap +1 (Charleroi)Actual: Charleroi
Charleroi +1
77.0%
@ 1.18+2.0%
Draw +1
13.8%
@ 5.80-1.5%
KV Mechelen -1
9.2%
@ 9.28-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Unibet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
Draw
Superbet
6.60
Bet365
6.50
Unibet
5.80
10Bet
5.75
Marathonbet
4.35
Away
Superbet
11.00
Bet365
10.00
Unibet
10.00
10Bet
9.00
Marathonbet
6.40
Handicap +2 (Charleroi)Actual: Charleroi
Charleroi +2
90.8%
@ 1.05+1.6%
Draw +2
6.4%
@ 13.00-0.8%
KV Mechelen -2
2.7%
@ 26.00-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.05
Draw
Bet365
13.00
Away
Bet365
26.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Charleroi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.53
0.56
0.50
0.57
0.57
vs Stronger (9)
0.89
0.44
0.67
0.33
1.33
0.67
vs Similar (20)
0.40
0.50
0.50
0.60
0.30
0.40
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (KV Mechelen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KV Mechelen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.77
0.60
0.47
0.40
1.07
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
0.83
0.33
0.50
0.50
1.17
vs Similar (18)
0.56
0.72
0.78
0.44
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Charleroi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
69.6%
@ 1.33-0.5%
Under 0.5
30.4%
@ 3.12+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
BetVictor
1.34
Pinnacle
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.34
Betfair
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Superbet
3.25
Marathonbet
3.10
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
36.0%
@ 2.52-1.1%
Under 1.5
64.0%
@ 1.48+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.64
Betano
2.62
Unibet
2.60
Bet365
2.50
Betfair
2.50
Under
Superbet
1.52
Betfair
1.50
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.8%
@ 5.97-2.8%
Under 2.5
87.2%
@ 1.10+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
Unibet
6.00
Betfair
6.00
William Hil
6.00
Betano
5.90
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Bet365
1.11
William Hil
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Charleroi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
56.0%
@ 1.67+0.2%
Under
44.0%
@ 2.10-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.70
Betano
1.70
Unibet
1.68
Pinnacle
1.67
1xBet
1.64
Under
Pinnacle
2.22
Superbet
2.12
1xBet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.10
Betano
2.07
Charleroi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
19.0%
@ 4.25-2.8%
Under
81.0%
@ 1.18+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
4.40
10Bet
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
Betano
4.25
Superbet
4.10
Under
Superbet
1.20
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
Charleroi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.6%
@ 11.17-4.8%
Under
96.4%
@ 1.03+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
10Bet
12.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
KV Mechelen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
36.1%
@ 2.53-0.7%
Under
63.9%
@ 1.47+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.73
Betano
2.57
Unibet
2.55
Superbet
2.50
Marathonbet
2.49
Under
10Bet
1.50
1xBet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.47
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.47
KV Mechelen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.5%
@ 8.89-2.9%
Under
92.5%
@ 1.03+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.90
1xBet
9.20
Superbet
9.00
Unibet
9.00
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Unibet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
KV Mechelen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.1%
@ 38.00-98.9%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
38.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Charleroi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.60
0.94
0.75
0.64
0.43
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
0.78
0.67
0.50
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (20)
0.95
0.55
1.10
0.90
0.80
0.20
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (KV Mechelen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KV Mechelen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.97
0.67
0.87
0.53
1.07
vs Stronger (12)
0.58
1.25
0.83
1.00
0.33
1.50
vs Similar (18)
0.61
0.78
0.56
0.78
0.67
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Charleroi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
79.2%
Under 0.5
20.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
47.6%
Under 1.5
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
19.2%
Under 2.5
80.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Charleroi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
63.3%
Under
36.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Charleroi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
24.3%
Under
75.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Charleroi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.9%
Under
93.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KV Mechelen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
45.2%
Under
54.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KV Mechelen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.9%
Under
88.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KV Mechelen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.4%
1.01
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
888Sport
1.01
-
-
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.4%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
-
-
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
93.0%
1.04
Superbet
1.06
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
888Sport
1.05
Betfair
1.04
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.5%
1.03
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Unibet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
90.8%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
90.0%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Betfair
1.08
888Sport
1.08
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
89.9%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
888Sport
1.05
Betfair
1.05
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.2%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Bet365
1.11
William Hil
1.11
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
84.0%
1.14
Pinnacle
1.17
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Bet365
1.14
888Sport
1.14
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
82.5%
1.13
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
888Sport
1.13
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
81.4%
1.22
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Unibet
1.23
Superbet
1.23
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
81.0%
1.18
Superbet
1.20
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
77.0%
1.18
William Hil
1.20
888Sport
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.19
Unibet
1.19
-2.8%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
77.0%
1.18
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Unibet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
74.5%
1.31
Betano
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.33
1xBet
1.32
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
74.1%
1.24
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.26
Unibet
1.26
888Sport
1.25
-1.7%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
71.2%
1.38
Superbet
1.43
Bet365
1.40
Marathonbet
1.38
Unibet
1.35
10Bet
1.33
+5.7%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Charleroi
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kevin Van Den Kerkhof50%
Aurélien Scheidler33%
Aiham Ousou33%
Cheick Keita33%
Antoine Colassin25%
Freddy Mbemba25%
Amine Boukamir25%
Patrick Pflücke0%
Antoine Bernier0%
Mardochee Nzita0%
Mohamed Koné0%
Jakob Napoleon Romsaas0%
Massamba Sow0%
Adama Bojang0%
Yassine Khalifi0%
Isaac Ismaël Cissé0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Aiham Ousou33%
Antoine Bernier25%
Aurélien Scheidler0%
Patrick Pflücke0%
Kevin Van Den Kerkhof0%
Mardochee Nzita0%
Antoine Colassin0%
Cheick Keita0%
Mohamed Koné0%
Jakob Napoleon Romsaas0%
Freddy Mbemba0%
Massamba Sow0%
Adama Bojang0%
Yassine Khalifi0%
Amine Boukamir0%
Isaac Ismaël Cissé0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Patrick Pflücke25%
Kevin Van Den Kerkhof25%
Antoine Colassin25%
Jakob Napoleon Romsaas25%
Adama Bojang25%
Isaac Ismaël Cissé25%
Aurélien Scheidler0%
Aiham Ousou0%
Antoine Bernier0%
Mardochee Nzita0%
Cheick Keita0%
Mohamed Koné0%
Freddy Mbemba0%
Massamba Sow0%
Yassine Khalifi0%
Amine Boukamir0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Patrick Pflücke75%
Jakob Napoleon Romsaas25%
Aurélien Scheidler0%
Aiham Ousou0%
Kevin Van Den Kerkhof0%
Antoine Bernier0%
Mardochee Nzita0%
Antoine Colassin0%
Cheick Keita0%
Mohamed Koné0%
Freddy Mbemba0%
Massamba Sow0%
Adama Bojang0%
Yassine Khalifi0%
Amine Boukamir0%
Isaac Ismaël Cissé0%
KV Mechelen
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Myron Van Brederode50%
Thérence Koudou33%
Adeshina Ayodele33%
Dennis Praet0%
Benito Raman0%
Fredrik Hammar0%
José Marsà0%
Nacho Miras0%
Luc Marijnissen0%
Massimo Decoene0%
Bilal Bafdili0%
Cedric Jan Van Meirvenne0%
Malcolm Lohunanu-Mbasi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Massimo Decoene33%
Adeshina Ayodele33%
Fredrik Hammar25%
Dennis Praet0%
Benito Raman0%
José Marsà0%
Nacho Miras0%
Luc Marijnissen0%
Myron Van Brederode0%
Thérence Koudou0%
Bilal Bafdili0%
Cedric Jan Van Meirvenne0%
Malcolm Lohunanu-Mbasi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Malcolm Lohunanu-Mbasi25%
Dennis Praet0%
Benito Raman0%
Fredrik Hammar0%
José Marsà0%
Nacho Miras0%
Luc Marijnissen0%
Myron Van Brederode0%
Thérence Koudou0%
Massimo Decoene0%
Bilal Bafdili0%
Cedric Jan Van Meirvenne0%
Adeshina Ayodele0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Thérence Koudou33%
Adeshina Ayodele33%
Dennis Praet0%
Benito Raman0%
Fredrik Hammar0%
José Marsà0%
Nacho Miras0%
Luc Marijnissen0%
Myron Van Brederode0%
Massimo Decoene0%
Bilal Bafdili0%
Cedric Jan Van Meirvenne0%
Malcolm Lohunanu-Mbasi0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (27)
€196m
GEN (30)
€113m
USG (26)
€98m
AND (32)
€91m
GEN (32)
€58m
SL (27)
€54m
KM (31)
€45m
CB (26)
€40m
KW (26)
€38m
ANT (24)
€33m
CHA (21)
€31m
OL (27)
€30m
ST (23)
€30m
LU (25)
€26m
RLL (30)
€23m
ZW (27)
€20m
KOR (24)
€18m
SB (24)
€12m
Charleroi's squad is €14m less valuable than KV Mechelen's (€31m vs €45m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (10)
€92m
AND (12)
€50m
GEN (10)
€39m
USG (10)
€32m
CB (9)
€18m
GEN (11)
€17m
KW (11)
€16m
SL (9)
€14m
KM (9)
€13m
CHA (8)
€13m
ST (10)
€11m
ANT (10)
€9m
KOR (9)
€9m
ZW (10)
€8m
LU (10)
€8m
OL (8)
€7m
RLL (10)
€6m
SB (9)
€4m
Charleroi and KV Mechelen have a similar attack value (both €13m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
USG (7)
€38m
CBK (5)
€23m
GEN (8)
€22m
GEN (5)
€19m
AND (5)
€18m
LU (5)
€15m
ANT (4)
€10m
KW (5)
€9m
SL (7)
€8m
KM (7)
€7m
OL (6)
€6m
RLL (7)
€6m
CB (6)
€5m
ST (4)
€4m
CHA (5)
€4m
KOR (5)
€4m
ZW (4)
€4m
SB (5)
€3m
Charleroi's midfield is €3m less valuable than KV Mechelen's (€4m vs €7m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (12)
€81m
GEN (15)
€55m
SL (11)
€31m
USG (9)
€28m
KM (15)
€25m
AND (15)
€24m
GEN (13)
€19m
OL (13)
€17m
CB (11)
€17m
ANT (10)
€14m
CHA (8)
€14m
ST (9)
€14m
KW (10)
€12m
RLL (13)
€11m
ZW (13)
€9m
KOR (10)
€5m
SB (10)
€5m
LU (10)
€4m
Charleroi's defence is €11m less valuable than KV Mechelen's (€14m vs €25m).
Belgium: Jupiler Pro League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belgium: Jupiler Pro League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Gent
Union St. Gilloise
Club Brugge KV
Zulte Waregem
Standard Liege
Genk
Lommel United
Antwerp
Anderlecht
St. Truiden
SK Beveren
Cercle Brugge
RAAL La Louvière
KVC Westerlo
OH Leuven
Kortrijk