Charleroi are tipped to win, the model favouring a home victory with a 44% chance, a 27% chance of a draw and a 30% chance of a Westerlo win. The expected total of 2.9 goals points to a moderately high-scoring affair, with the most likely total being two goals at 24%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 12.5% probability, even though the model pick is a home win. Charleroi’s home form shows they average one goal scored and 1.17 conceded against teams of similar strength, while Westerlo, playing away, average 1.2 scored and 2.0 conceded versus similar opponents. The model’s selection includes Over 1.5, with an 80% probability, and notes that this pick has hit. The match is shaped by Charleroi’s five-game winning streak, highlighted by a 3-1 win over Kortrijk, while Westerlo return after a draw, having lost four of their last five. The overall picture is a close contest, but the odds lean toward a home win.
Results analysis
Charleroi’s five-game winning streak carried them into a 2-1 victory over KVC Westerlo, confirming the model’s prediction of a home win. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was assigned a 44% probability, and the model’s call proved correct. The model also selected Over 1.5 goals with an 80% chance, a pick that hit as the match produced two goals. The most likely scoreline, 1-1, had a 12.5% chance, while 2-1 and 1-0 followed at 9.2% and 7.6%. The final score of 2-1 matched the actual result, and the model’s predictions largely came through.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Charleroi win✓ Hit
43.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
KVC Westerlo win✗ Miss
29.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Charleroi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.20
1.40
1.13
0.87
1.27
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
1.40
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (14)
0.71
1.21
1.00
1.17
0.50
1.25
vs Weaker (11)
1.73
1.09
2.00
1.17
1.40
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (KVC Westerlo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KVC Westerlo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
2.03
1.33
1.40
1.00
2.67
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
3.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
3.40
vs Similar (14)
1.36
1.21
1.44
0.78
1.20
2.00
vs Weaker (9)
1.00
2.56
1.25
2.50
0.80
2.60
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Charleroi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.0%
Under 1.5
20.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.9%
Under 2.5
44.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.6%
Under 3.5
66.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.5%
No
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
2-1 ✓
9.2%
1-0
7.6%
1-2
7.4%
2-0
7.1%
0-0
6.5%
2-2
6.0%
0-1
5.9%
Charleroi goals ↓
KVC Westerlo goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
5.9%
4.6%
2.0%
0.6%
1
7.6%
12%
7.4%
3.2%
1.0%
2
7.1%
9.2%
6.0%
2.6%
0.8%
3
3.8%
5.0%
3.2%
1.4%
0.5%
4
1.5%
2.0%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Charleroi goals (down), columns = KVC Westerlo goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Anderlecht
2.03
Club Brugge KV
1.97
Zulte Waregem
1.80
Oostende
1.67
Gent
1.67
Charleroi
1.63
Genk
1.60
KV Mechelen
1.60
Standard Liege
1.40
Kortrijk
1.03
Lokeren
1.03
St. Truiden
1.00
Eupen
1.00
SK Beveren
1.00
Mouscron
0.80
KVC Westerlo
0.77
Charleroi is 0.87 points better than KVC Westerlo in terms of average points per game (1.63 vs 0.77).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Anderlecht
2.23
Club Brugge KV
1.87
Oostende
1.73
Zulte Waregem
1.63
Standard Liege
1.57
Gent
1.50
KV Mechelen
1.37
Genk
1.33
Eupen
1.33
Kortrijk
1.27
St. Truiden
1.17
Charleroi
1.13
KVC Westerlo
1.10
Mouscron
0.97
SK Beveren
0.93
Lokeren
0.80
Charleroi is 0.03 goals better than KVC Westerlo in terms of goals scored per game (1.13 vs 1.10).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Club Brugge KV
0.80
Charleroi
0.97
Gent
0.97
Anderlecht
1.00
Lokeren
1.13
Genk
1.17
KV Mechelen
1.20
Oostende
1.23
Zulte Waregem
1.27
Standard Liege
1.27
SK Beveren
1.43
St. Truiden
1.60
Mouscron
1.77
Kortrijk
1.83
Eupen
2.13
KVC Westerlo
2.17
Charleroi is 1.20 goals better than KVC Westerlo in terms of goals conceded per game (0.97 vs 2.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Charleroi
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
KVC Westerlo
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Charleroi
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (10)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (15)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (KVC Westerlo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KVC Westerlo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (12)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (12)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Charleroi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Not collected for this league yet.
🟨 Total Cards
Not collected for this league yet.
⚠️ Total Fouls
Not collected for this league yet.
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Charleroi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.30
0.80
0.27
0.40
0.33
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.20
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.00
vs Similar (14)
0.29
0.29
0.50
0.17
0.12
0.38
vs Weaker (11)
1.09
0.36
1.33
0.33
0.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
70% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (KVC Westerlo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KVC Westerlo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.00
0.80
0.80
0.40
1.20
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.14
0.50
1.50
0.20
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.79
0.78
0.44
0.40
1.40
vs Weaker (9)
0.78
1.22
1.00
1.25
0.60
1.20
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Charleroi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Charleroi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Charleroi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Charleroi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KVC Westerlo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KVC Westerlo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KVC Westerlo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Charleroi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.90
0.60
0.87
0.47
0.93
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.20
0.67
0.67
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (14)
0.43
0.93
0.50
1.00
0.38
0.88
vs Weaker (11)
0.64
0.73
0.67
0.83
0.60
0.60
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (KVC Westerlo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KVC Westerlo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.03
0.53
0.60
0.60
1.47
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.86
0.50
0.50
0.80
2.40
vs Similar (14)
0.71
0.43
0.67
0.33
0.80
0.60
vs Weaker (9)
0.22
1.33
0.25
1.25
0.20
1.40
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Charleroi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Charleroi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Charleroi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Charleroi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KVC Westerlo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KVC Westerlo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KVC Westerlo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Charleroi · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kevin Van Den Kerkhof50%
Aurélien Scheidler33%
Aiham Ousou33%
Cheick Keita33%
Antoine Colassin25%
Freddy Mbemba25%
Amine Boukamir25%
Patrick Pflücke0%
Antoine Bernier0%
Mardochee Nzita0%
Mohamed Koné0%
Jakob Napoleon Romsaas0%
Massamba Sow0%
Adama Bojang0%
Yassine Khalifi0%
Isaac Ismaël Cissé0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Aiham Ousou33%
Antoine Bernier25%
Aurélien Scheidler0%
Patrick Pflücke0%
Kevin Van Den Kerkhof0%
Mardochee Nzita0%
Antoine Colassin0%
Cheick Keita0%
Mohamed Koné0%
Jakob Napoleon Romsaas0%
Freddy Mbemba0%
Massamba Sow0%
Adama Bojang0%
Yassine Khalifi0%
Amine Boukamir0%
Isaac Ismaël Cissé0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Patrick Pflücke25%
Kevin Van Den Kerkhof25%
Antoine Colassin25%
Jakob Napoleon Romsaas25%
Adama Bojang25%
Isaac Ismaël Cissé25%
Aurélien Scheidler0%
Aiham Ousou0%
Antoine Bernier0%
Mardochee Nzita0%
Cheick Keita0%
Mohamed Koné0%
Freddy Mbemba0%
Massamba Sow0%
Yassine Khalifi0%
Amine Boukamir0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Patrick Pflücke75%
Jakob Napoleon Romsaas25%
Aurélien Scheidler0%
Aiham Ousou0%
Kevin Van Den Kerkhof0%
Antoine Bernier0%
Mardochee Nzita0%
Antoine Colassin0%
Cheick Keita0%
Mohamed Koné0%
Freddy Mbemba0%
Massamba Sow0%
Adama Bojang0%
Yassine Khalifi0%
Amine Boukamir0%
Isaac Ismaël Cissé0%
KVC Westerlo · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Norman Bassette67%
Shunsuke Saito33%
Seiji Kimura0%
Cisse Sandra0%
Andreas Jungdal0%
Isa Sakamoto0%
Ibrahim Fofana0%
Dylan Ourega0%
Amando Lapage0%
Lucas Mbamba0%
Reda Laalaoui0%
Lasse Flø0%
David Amegnaglo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Cisse Sandra33%
Lasse Flø33%
Seiji Kimura0%
Andreas Jungdal0%
Isa Sakamoto0%
Norman Bassette0%
Ibrahim Fofana0%
Dylan Ourega0%
Amando Lapage0%
Lucas Mbamba0%
Reda Laalaoui0%
Shunsuke Saito0%
David Amegnaglo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Isa Sakamoto33%
Seiji Kimura0%
Cisse Sandra0%
Andreas Jungdal0%
Norman Bassette0%
Ibrahim Fofana0%
Dylan Ourega0%
Amando Lapage0%
Lucas Mbamba0%
Reda Laalaoui0%
Lasse Flø0%
Shunsuke Saito0%
David Amegnaglo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Norman Bassette33%
Seiji Kimura0%
Cisse Sandra0%
Andreas Jungdal0%
Isa Sakamoto0%
Ibrahim Fofana0%
Dylan Ourega0%
Amando Lapage0%
Lucas Mbamba0%
Reda Laalaoui0%
Lasse Flø0%
Shunsuke Saito0%
David Amegnaglo0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (27)
€196m
GEN (30)
€113m
AND (32)
€91m
GEN (32)
€58m
SL (27)
€54m
KM (31)
€45m
KW (26)
€38m
CHA (21)
€31m
ST (23)
€30m
ZW (27)
€20m
KOR (24)
€18m
SB (24)
€12m
Charleroi's squad is €7m less valuable than KVC Westerlo's (€31m vs €38m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (10)
€92m
AND (12)
€50m
GEN (10)
€39m
GEN (11)
€17m
KW (11)
€16m
SL (9)
€14m
KM (9)
€13m
CHA (8)
€13m
ST (10)
€11m
KOR (9)
€9m
ZW (10)
€8m
SB (9)
€4m
Charleroi's attack is €3m less valuable than KVC Westerlo's (€13m vs €16m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (5)
€23m
GEN (8)
€22m
GEN (5)
€19m
AND (5)
€18m
KW (5)
€9m
SL (7)
€8m
KM (7)
€7m
ST (4)
€4m
CHA (5)
€4m
KOR (5)
€4m
ZW (4)
€4m
SB (5)
€3m
Charleroi's midfield is €5m less valuable than KVC Westerlo's (€4m vs €9m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (12)
€81m
GEN (15)
€55m
SL (11)
€31m
KM (15)
€25m
AND (15)
€24m
GEN (13)
€19m
CHA (8)
€14m
ST (9)
€14m
KW (10)
€12m
ZW (13)
€9m
KOR (10)
€5m
SB (10)
€5m
Charleroi's defence is €2m more valuable than KVC Westerlo's (€14m vs €12m).
Belgium: Jupiler Pro League 2016/17 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belgium: Jupiler Pro League stats & trends →
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Anderlecht
Club Brugge KV
Zulte Waregem
Gent
Oostende
KV Mechelen
Genk
Standard Liege
Kortrijk
St. Truiden
SK Beveren