This opponent (Ajaccio) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ajaccio
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.70
1.38
1.31
0.64
2.14
vs Stronger (14)
0.93
1.71
1.00
1.00
0.86
2.43
vs Similar (16)
1.12
1.69
1.67
1.56
0.43
1.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Chateauroux) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.3%
Under 1.5
26.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.7%
Under 2.5
53.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
25.1%
Under 3.5
74.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.2%
No
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
1-0
10.8%
2-1
9.3%
2-0
9.1%
0-0
9.1%
0-1
6.8%
1-2
6.2%
2-2 ✓
4.7%
Chateauroux goals ↓
Ajaccio goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.1%
6.8%
4.1%
1.4%
0.4%
1
11%
13%
6.2%
2.1%
0.5%
2
9.1%
9.3%
4.7%
1.6%
0.4%
3
4.6%
4.7%
2.4%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.8%
1.8%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Chateauroux goals (down), columns = Ajaccio goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Metz
2.13
Stade Brestois 29
1.95
Estac Troyes
1.87
Paris FC
1.71
Lens
1.66
Lorient
1.66
Le Havre
1.42
Orleans
1.37
Grenoble
1.32
Clermont Foot
1.26
Chateauroux
1.26
Niort
1.24
Valenciennes
1.13
Nancy
1.11
Auxerre
1.08
Sochaux
1.08
Ajaccio
1.04
Beziers
1.00
Red Star
0.79
Chateauroux is 0.22 points better than Ajaccio in terms of average points per game (1.26 vs 1.04).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stade Brestois 29
1.68
Metz
1.58
Valenciennes
1.37
Orleans
1.34
Estac Troyes
1.34
Lorient
1.34
Lens
1.29
Le Havre
1.18
Clermont Foot
1.16
Grenoble
1.13
Chateauroux
0.97
Paris FC
0.95
Nancy
0.95
Auxerre
0.89
Niort
0.89
Beziers
0.87
Ajaccio
0.78
Red Star
0.74
Sochaux
0.71
Chateauroux is 0.20 goals better than Ajaccio in terms of goals scored per game (0.97 vs 0.78).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Paris FC
0.58
Metz
0.61
Lens
0.74
Estac Troyes
0.74
Stade Brestois 29
0.92
Auxerre
0.95
Clermont Foot
0.97
Le Havre
1.05
Niort
1.08
Lorient
1.08
Chateauroux
1.11
Sochaux
1.13
Grenoble
1.24
Ajaccio
1.30
Beziers
1.32
Nancy
1.32
Orleans
1.39
Red Star
1.53
Valenciennes
1.61
Chateauroux is 0.20 goals better than Ajaccio in terms of goals conceded per game (1.11 vs 1.30).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Chateauroux
For 4.5 · Against 4.6 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 17.6 · Against 16.7 · Total 34.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ajaccio
For 4.6 · Against 4.1 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.4 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.6 · Against 14.9 · Total 27.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Chateauroux
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (49)
10.7
10.6
10.8
3.3
3.2
3.5
33.9
29.8
37.3
vs Stronger (22)
10.8
10.4
11.2
3.1
3.3
3.0
28.8
27.5
29.5
vs Similar (27)
10.6
10.7
10.5
3.5
3.1
3.9
40.0
31.3
53.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
59%
62%
56%
39%
33%
44%
91%
80%
100%
% under line
41%
38%
44%
61%
67%
56%
9%
20%
0%
This opponent (Ajaccio) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ajaccio
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
8.7
9.1
4.3
4.6
4.1
29.9
32.2
27.1
vs Stronger (21)
9.2
8.9
9.6
3.7
3.9
3.4
28.0
29.5
26.2
vs Similar (29)
8.7
8.5
8.8
4.8
5.1
4.6
31.7
34.8
28.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
46%
50%
42%
54%
62%
46%
91%
100%
80%
% under line
54%
50%
58%
46%
38%
54%
9%
0%
20%
This opponent (Chateauroux) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Le Havre
11.2
Chateauroux
10.7
Estac Troyes
10.2
Stade Brestois 29
10.2
Grenoble
10.2
Clermont Foot
10.1
Lorient
9.9
Niort
9.9
Lens
9.8
Auxerre
9.8
Sochaux
9.7
Valenciennes
9.5
Metz
9.5
Orleans
9.3
Paris FC
9.0
Ajaccio
8.8
Red Star
8.5
Nancy
8.3
Beziers
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Beziers
4.9
Ajaccio
4.4
Orleans
4.3
Lorient
4.3
Niort
4.2
Paris FC
4.1
Nancy
4.1
Valenciennes
4.0
Sochaux
3.8
Metz
3.8
Stade Brestois 29
3.8
Lens
3.8
Clermont Foot
3.7
Estac Troyes
3.6
Grenoble
3.6
Le Havre
3.5
Auxerre
3.5
Red Star
3.5
Chateauroux
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Chateauroux
33.9
Valenciennes
33.9
Sochaux
33.3
Le Havre
32.9
Lorient
32.4
Niort
31.5
Beziers
31.5
Nancy
30.0
Ajaccio
29.9
Paris FC
29.5
Stade Brestois 29
29.3
Red Star
28.9
Grenoble
28.9
Lens
28.5
Orleans
28.4
Clermont Foot
27.3
Auxerre
26.5
Metz
26.2
Estac Troyes
24.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
44.8%
Under 9.5
55.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
53.8%
Under 3.5
46.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
88.5%
Under 21.5
11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Chateauroux
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.57
0.67
0.47
0.20
0.67
vs Stronger (14)
0.29
0.64
0.50
0.50
0.12
0.75
vs Similar (16)
0.56
0.50
0.78
0.44
0.29
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajaccio) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ajaccio
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.70
0.56
0.44
0.50
1.00
vs Stronger (14)
0.57
0.86
0.57
0.43
0.57
1.29
vs Similar (16)
0.50
0.56
0.56
0.44
0.43
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Chateauroux) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Chateauroux over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chateauroux over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chateauroux over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajaccio over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajaccio over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajaccio over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Chateauroux
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.70
0.93
0.73
0.40
0.67
vs Stronger (14)
0.57
1.00
1.00
1.33
0.25
0.75
vs Similar (16)
0.75
0.44
0.89
0.33
0.57
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajaccio) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ajaccio
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.00
0.81
0.88
0.14
1.14
vs Stronger (14)
0.36
0.86
0.43
0.57
0.29
1.14
vs Similar (16)
0.62
1.12
1.11
1.11
0.00
1.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Chateauroux) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Chateauroux over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chateauroux over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chateauroux over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajaccio over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajaccio over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajaccio over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Ajaccio · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Aboubakary Kanté25%
Ben Touré15%
Moussa Soumano15%
Yoann Touzghar11%
Christopher Ibayi11%
Axel Bamba10%
Everson Junior10%
Julien Anziani9%
Mickaël Barreto8%
Tim Jabol-Folcarelli7%
Benjamin Santelli4%
Tony Strata4%
Valentin Jacob0%
Francois-Joseph Sollacaro0%
Mohamed Youssouf0%
Thomas Mangani0%
Clement Vidal0%
Stephen Quemper0%
Matthieu Huard0%
Ghjuvanni Quilichini0%
Jesah Ayessa0%
Mehdi Puch-Herrantz0%
Ivane Chegra0%
Kan Guy Arsène Kouassi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Stephen Quemper40%
Everson Junior29%
Thomas Mangani26%
Mickaël Barreto25%
Clement Vidal22%
Benjamin Santelli22%
Christopher Ibayi21%
Tim Jabol-Folcarelli20%
Jesah Ayessa20%
Matthieu Huard18%
Ivane Chegra16%
Mohamed Youssouf15%
Francois-Joseph Sollacaro14%
Axel Bamba13%
Kan Guy Arsène Kouassi13%
Julien Anziani12%
Ben Touré10%
Mehdi Puch-Herrantz9%
Moussa Soumano7%
Tony Strata7%
Yoann Touzghar0%
Valentin Jacob0%
Aboubakary Kanté0%
Ghjuvanni Quilichini0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mickaël Barreto17%
Valentin Jacob14%
Kan Guy Arsène Kouassi9%
Moussa Soumano7%
Tony Strata7%
Thomas Mangani5%
Christopher Ibayi5%
Matthieu Huard5%
Benjamin Santelli4%
Aboubakary Kanté4%
Julien Anziani3%
Yoann Touzghar0%
Axel Bamba0%
Francois-Joseph Sollacaro0%
Mohamed Youssouf0%
Clement Vidal0%
Tim Jabol-Folcarelli0%
Stephen Quemper0%
Ghjuvanni Quilichini0%
Jesah Ayessa0%
Everson Junior0%
Mehdi Puch-Herrantz0%
Ben Touré0%
Ivane Chegra0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Julien Anziani26%
Christopher Ibayi16%
Moussa Soumano11%
Aboubakary Kanté8%
Ben Touré5%
Yoann Touzghar0%
Axel Bamba0%
Valentin Jacob0%
Mickaël Barreto0%
Francois-Joseph Sollacaro0%
Mohamed Youssouf0%
Thomas Mangani0%
Benjamin Santelli0%
Clement Vidal0%
Tim Jabol-Folcarelli0%
Stephen Quemper0%
Matthieu Huard0%
Ghjuvanni Quilichini0%
Jesah Ayessa0%
Everson Junior0%
Mehdi Puch-Herrantz0%
Ivane Chegra0%
Tony Strata0%
Kan Guy Arsène Kouassi0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
France: Ligue 2 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 2 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Metz
Stade Brestois 29
Estac Troyes
Paris FC
Lens
Lorient
Le Havre
Orleans
Grenoble
Clermont Foot
Niort
Valenciennes
Nancy
Auxerre
Sochaux