Chelsea are tipped to lift the trophy at home, with the model assigning a 43 % chance to a win, 27 % to a draw and 30 % to a Brighton victory. The expected total is 2.8 goals, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13 % probability. Chelsea’s home form shows they average 2.25 goals scored and concede only one against weaker opposition, while Brighton, playing away against stronger teams, averages just 0.5 goals scored and concedes two. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.2 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.1 % with a 6 % edge), Under 6.5 (97.6 % with a 3 % edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.2 % with a 6 % edge), Away under 3.5 goals (96.1 % with a 3 % edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.0 % with a 5 % edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.2 % with a 6 % edge) and Under 5.5 (93.5 % with a 3 % edge). Chelsea’s recent form, after a 1-2 loss to Sunderland, and Brighton’s recent 4-0 win over Aston Villa set the stage for a low-scoring, home-side-favoured encounter.
Results analysis
Chelsea’s 4-3 triumph over Brighton was far more fireworks than the model had forecast, with the final tally well above the expected 2.8 goals. The pre-match favourite was a home win at 41%, and the model’s call was correct. The match also saw the model’s suggested picks largely hit: Under 7.5 (99.2%) and Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.1%) were accurate, as were Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.9%) and Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.5%). However, Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.8%) and Under 6.5 (97.6%) missed, and Under 5.5 (93.6%) also fell short. Chelsea’s win extends their three-game run, while Brighton returns from a defeat.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Chelsea win✓ Hit
41.4%
Avg Implied 50.5% · @ 1.89
Edge
-9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.95
Unibet
1.92
1xBet
1.92
William Hil
1.91
SBO
1.91
Draw✗ Miss
27.5%
Avg Implied 25.0% · @ 3.82
Edge
+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
4.00
1xBet
3.98
Marathonbet
3.92
Pinnacle
3.91
Betano
3.90
Brighton win✗ Miss
31.1%
Avg Implied 24.4% · @ 3.92
Edge
+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.11
Dafabet
4.10
Pinnacle
4.09
Marathonbet
4.05
Bet365
4.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Chelsea
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.57
1.50
1.31
1.93
1.86
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
4.00
0.00
3.00
2.00
5.00
vs Similar (12)
1.08
1.67
0.67
1.67
1.50
1.67
vs Weaker (16)
2.25
1.19
2.22
0.89
2.29
1.57
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Brighton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brighton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.13
1.73
0.93
1.00
1.33
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.67
1.00
1.00
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (22)
1.50
1.09
1.67
1.00
1.30
1.20
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
4.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Chelsea) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.9%
@ 1.19-0.8%
Under 1.5
22.1%
@ 4.41+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
BetVictor
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Unibet
1.19
Under
Superbet
4.80
Unibet
4.60
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.40
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.8%
@ 1.64-5.1%
Under 2.5
47.2%
@ 2.27+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.70
Bet365
1.67
Betano
1.67
Pinnacle
1.65
Unibet
1.65
Under
Superbet
2.35
1xBet
2.34
Pinnacle
2.33
SBO
2.31
Marathonbet
2.27
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
30.6%
@ 2.53-6.7%
Under 3.5
69.4%
@ 1.51+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.65
Unibet
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Pinnacle
2.60
1xBet
2.50
Under
Superbet
1.55
Betfair
1.53
Pinnacle
1.52
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.50
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.5%
@ 1.57-2.1%
No
42.5%
@ 2.31+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.60
Betano
1.57
Superbet
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
No
Betfair
2.40
Superbet
2.37
William Hil
2.30
Betano
2.30
BetVictor
2.30
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%@ 7.06+6.5%
2-1
9.0%@ 8.02+3.2%
1-0
8.1%@ 9.09+3.0%
1-2
7.6%@ 12.14+3.8%
0-0
7.3%@ 13.69+4.0%
2-0
7.0%@ 10.35+2.5%
0-1
6.7%@ 13.31+3.2%
2-2
5.7%@ 12.03+1.9%
Chelsea goals ↓
Brighton goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.3%
6.7%
5.0%
2.1%
0.7%
1
8.1%
13%
7.6%
3.2%
1.0%
2
7.0%
9.0%
5.7%
2.5%
0.8%
3
3.5%
4.5%
2.9%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.3%
1.7%
1.1%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Chelsea goals (down), columns = Brighton goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Arsenal
2.24
Manchester City
2.05
Manchester United
1.87
Aston Villa
1.71
Liverpool
1.58
Bournemouth
1.50
Sunderland
1.42
Brentford
1.39
Brighton
1.39
Fulham
1.37
Chelsea
1.37
Everton
1.29
Newcastle
1.29
Leeds
1.24
Crystal Palace
1.18
Ipswich
1.18
Nottingham Forest
1.16
Tottenham
1.08
Hull
0.98
Coventry
0.97
Chelsea is 0.03 points worse than Brighton in terms of average points per game (1.37 vs 1.39).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.03
Arsenal
1.87
Manchester United
1.82
Liverpool
1.66
Chelsea
1.53
Bournemouth
1.53
Aston Villa
1.47
Brentford
1.45
Newcastle
1.39
Brighton
1.37
Leeds
1.29
Tottenham
1.26
Nottingham Forest
1.26
Fulham
1.24
Everton
1.24
Ipswich
1.19
Sunderland
1.11
Crystal Palace
1.08
Hull
0.99
Coventry
0.98
Chelsea is 0.16 goals better than Brighton in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 1.37).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arsenal
0.71
Manchester City
0.92
Brighton
1.21
Sunderland
1.26
Aston Villa
1.29
Everton
1.32
Manchester United
1.32
Fulham
1.34
Nottingham Forest
1.34
Crystal Palace
1.34
Chelsea
1.37
Brentford
1.37
Liverpool
1.39
Bournemouth
1.42
Newcastle
1.45
Leeds
1.47
Tottenham
1.50
Ipswich
1.58
Hull
1.91
Coventry
1.93
Chelsea is 0.16 goals worse than Brighton in terms of goals conceded per game (1.37 vs 1.21).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Manchester City
60%
Liverpool
59%
Chelsea
57%
Arsenal
56%
Brighton
53%
Aston Villa
53%
Manchester United
52%
Newcastle
52%
Fulham
51%
Tottenham
50%
Bournemouth
50%
Brentford
47%
Nottingham Forest
46%
Leeds
46%
Crystal Palace
45%
Sunderland
45%
Everton
44%
Chelsea is 3.9 percentage points better than Brighton in terms of average possession (57% vs 53%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Chelsea
For 5.7 · Against 4.1 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 13.2 · Total 25.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Brighton
For 6.1 · Against 4.0 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 1.8 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 8.7 · Total 21.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Chelsea
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.8
9.3
4.3
4.4
4.3
22.8
23.0
22.6
vs Stronger (2)
8.5
12.0
5.0
0.5
0.0
1.0
19.5
18.0
21.0
vs Similar (22)
9.6
10.2
9.0
4.8
5.2
4.4
25.0
24.4
25.6
vs Weaker (26)
10.5
11.2
9.9
4.3
4.0
4.5
21.2
22.2
20.3
% over line
64%
71%
58%
64%
71%
58%
56%
67%
46%
% under line
36%
29%
42%
36%
29%
42%
44%
33%
54%
This opponent (Brighton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brighton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
8.9
10.2
4.0
3.7
4.2
22.3
21.9
22.6
vs Stronger (9)
8.0
7.5
8.4
4.6
5.0
4.2
24.1
23.8
24.4
vs Similar (37)
9.9
9.3
10.4
4.1
3.6
4.6
21.8
21.6
21.9
vs Weaker (4)
10.8
7.0
12.0
1.8
1.0
2.0
22.5
19.0
23.7
% over line
56%
39%
70%
56%
57%
56%
54%
43%
63%
% under line
44%
61%
30%
44%
43%
44%
46%
57%
37%
This opponent (Chelsea) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Newcastle
11.1
Bournemouth
10.7
Fulham
10.5
Hull
10.3
Manchester City
10.3
Liverpool
10.2
Tottenham
10.1
Chelsea
10.0
Ipswich
10.0
Brentford
9.9
Nottingham Forest
9.7
Brighton
9.6
Coventry
9.6
Manchester United
9.6
Leeds
9.5
Aston Villa
9.4
Everton
9.3
Sunderland
9.2
Arsenal
9.0
Crystal Palace
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bournemouth
4.5
Tottenham
4.5
Chelsea
4.4
Newcastle
4.3
Ipswich
4.2
Sunderland
4.2
Hull
4.2
Manchester United
4.1
Brighton
4.0
Aston Villa
3.8
Brentford
3.7
Coventry
3.7
Everton
3.7
Manchester City
3.7
Crystal Palace
3.7
Liverpool
3.6
Fulham
3.6
Leeds
3.5
Nottingham Forest
3.5
Arsenal
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ipswich
23.8
Aston Villa
23.6
Nottingham Forest
23.4
Bournemouth
23.2
Tottenham
22.9
Chelsea
22.8
Sunderland
22.7
Brighton
22.3
Leeds
22.2
Arsenal
22.1
Newcastle
21.8
Manchester United
21.7
Everton
21.6
Liverpool
21.4
Coventry
21.4
Crystal Palace
21.3
Hull
21.1
Manchester City
21.0
Fulham
19.9
Brentford
19.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
60.1%
@ 1.74+6.6%
Under 9.5
39.9%
@ 2.00-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.85
Betano
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Betfair
1.75
Unibet
1.72
Under
Pinnacle
2.17
Marathonbet
2.12
1xBet
2.08
Unibet
1.98
Betano
1.98
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
60.5%
@ 1.53-0.4%
Under 3.5
39.5%
@ 2.38+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.62
Pinnacle
1.55
Superbet
1.51
Unibet
1.43
Under
Unibet
2.55
Pinnacle
2.42
Superbet
2.32
Betano
2.22
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
55.0%
@ 1.52-4.8%
Under 21.5
45.0%
@ 2.27+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.52
Under
1xBet
2.27
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Chelsea or Draw✓ Hit
68.9%
Avg Implied 75.1% · @ 1.25
Edge
-6.2%
41%
28%
31%
covers Chelsea + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Unibet
1.25
Chelsea or Brighton✓ Hit
72.5%
Avg Implied 75.2% · @ 1.25
Edge
-2.8%
41%
28%
31%
covers Chelsea + Brighton
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Superbet
1.27
Betano
1.26
Draw or Brighton✗ Miss
58.6%
Avg Implied 49.6% · @ 1.90
Edge
+8.9%
41%
28%
31%
covers Draw + Brighton
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.98
Marathonbet
1.98
Superbet
1.97
SBO
1.94
Betano
1.90
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Chelsea over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
77.9%
@ 1.14-4.1%
Under
22.1%
@ 5.19+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.17
Unibet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Under
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Superbet
5.45
BetVictor
5.25
1xBet
5.00
Chelsea over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
44.6%
@ 1.72-10.0%
Under
55.4%
@ 2.06+10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.75
Pinnacle
1.75
Marathonbet
1.74
Bet365
1.73
BetVictor
1.73
Under
Pinnacle
2.14
Superbet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.11
1xBet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Chelsea over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
19.4%
@ 3.26-9.3%
Under
80.6%
@ 1.31+9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.35
1xBet
3.30
Unibet
3.30
BetVictor
3.30
Under
Superbet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.31
Chelsea over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
6.7%
@ 7.04-6.6%
Under
93.3%
@ 1.08+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
1xBet
7.50
Betfair
7.50
Unibet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.60
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Brighton over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
72.2%
@ 1.34+2.7%
Under
27.8%
@ 3.06-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.37
1xBet
1.36
Betano
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Under
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
Pinnacle
3.17
Betano
3.05
Superbet
3.05
Brighton over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
36.6%
@ 2.66+1.3%
Under
63.4%
@ 1.45-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.87
Marathonbet
2.74
Unibet
2.65
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Under
1xBet
1.47
Betano
1.47
Marathonbet
1.45
Superbet
1.45
Pinnacle
1.45
Brighton over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
13.9%
@ 6.42-0.7%
Under
86.1%
@ 1.09+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
6.90
Marathonbet
6.65
BetVictor
6.50
Unibet
6.25
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Bet365
1.10
BetVictor
1.08
Brighton over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.1%
@ 15.58-2.0%
Under
95.9%
@ 1.02+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
17.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Chelsea, so a minus line means Chelsea give that many goals of a start and Brighton receive them. At -1, Chelsea must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Chelsea win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Chelsea)Actual: Brighton
Chelsea -2
8.2%
@ 6.39-5.9%
Draw -2
12.7%
@ 5.34-4.1%
Brighton +2
79.0%
@ 1.31+10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Unibet
6.40
Superbet
5.90
Marathonbet
5.65
Draw
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.30
Marathonbet
5.30
Unibet
5.10
Away
Superbet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.32
Bet365
1.30
Unibet
1.29
Betfair
1.25
Handicap -1 (Chelsea)Actual: Draw
Chelsea -1
21.0%
@ 3.17-7.5%
Draw -1
20.4%
@ 3.77-3.5%
Brighton +1
58.6%
@ 1.90+11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.40
Bet365
3.25
Unibet
3.15
Marathonbet
3.04
Superbet
3.00
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.72
Unibet
3.65
Betfair
3.60
Away
Superbet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.98
Unibet
1.85
Betfair
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Handicap +1 (Chelsea)Actual: Chelsea
Chelsea +1
68.9%
@ 1.25-3.9%
Draw +1
17.2%
@ 5.64+1.0%
Brighton -1
13.9%
@ 8.24+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Betfair
1.22
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Superbet
5.85
Marathonbet
5.55
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.30
Away
Betfair
9.00
Bet365
9.00
Superbet
7.90
Marathonbet
7.80
Unibet
7.50
Handicap +2 (Chelsea)Actual: Chelsea
Chelsea +2
86.1%
@ 1.06-1.2%
Draw +2
9.2%
@ 11.50+1.2%
Brighton -2
4.7%
@ 19.67+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.07
Unibet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
Draw
Bet365
12.00
Betfair
12.00
Unibet
10.50
Away
Bet365
21.00
Betfair
21.00
Unibet
17.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Chelsea
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.70
0.50
0.56
1.00
0.86
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (12)
0.50
0.75
0.17
0.50
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (16)
0.94
0.50
0.78
0.44
1.14
0.57
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Brighton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brighton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.57
1.07
0.53
0.47
0.60
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.86
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.70
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Chelsea) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
71.3%
@ 1.31-0.6%
Under 0.5
28.7%
@ 3.35+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.31
BetVictor
1.30
Under
Superbet
3.60
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.40
BetVictor
3.40
Marathonbet
3.36
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
34.5%
@ 2.42-4.4%
Under 1.5
65.5%
@ 1.54+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.52
Bet365
2.50
Pinnacle
2.50
SBO
2.49
1xBet
2.44
Under
Superbet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.56
Pinnacle
1.55
William Hil
1.55
1xBet
1.55
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
11.3%
@ 5.59-5.4%
Under 2.5
88.7%
@ 1.12+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
BetVictor
6.00
1xBet
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.50
Under
Superbet
1.16
Betano
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.12
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Chelsea over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
47.9%
@ 1.70-6.9%
Under
52.1%
@ 2.06+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.72
Pinnacle
1.70
1xBet
1.69
Unibet
1.68
Under
Pinnacle
2.18
Superbet
2.12
1xBet
2.04
Unibet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.00
Chelsea over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
13.1%
@ 4.36-8.2%
Under
86.9%
@ 1.18+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.45
1xBet
4.45
Betano
4.40
Superbet
4.00
Under
Superbet
1.20
Betano
1.19
Marathonbet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Chelsea over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
2.2%
@ 11.00-6.3%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.02+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Brighton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
40.6%
@ 2.25-0.7%
Under
59.4%
@ 1.59+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.39
Betano
2.25
1xBet
2.23
Marathonbet
2.23
Unibet
2.23
Under
Betano
1.60
Superbet
1.60
Pinnacle
1.59
1xBet
1.58
Marathonbet
1.58
Brighton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.7%
@ 7.30-2.0%
Under
89.3%
@ 1.06+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.80
Marathonbet
7.70
Superbet
7.10
Unibet
7.00
Betano
6.90
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Brighton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.9%
@ 19.00-3.2%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.01+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
25.00
Betano
13.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Chelsea
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.87
1.00
0.75
0.93
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (12)
0.58
0.92
0.50
1.17
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (16)
1.31
0.69
1.44
0.44
1.14
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Brighton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brighton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.57
0.67
0.40
0.53
0.73
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.67
0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.64
0.59
0.67
0.50
0.60
0.70
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Chelsea) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.8%
@ 1.18-2.3%
Under 0.5
22.2%
@ 4.73+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Under
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
5.00
Marathonbet
4.75
1xBet
4.75
Unibet
4.60
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
43.1%
@ 1.84-8.1%
Under 1.5
56.9%
@ 1.93+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.87
William Hil
1.85
Betano
1.83
Superbet
1.83
Under
Marathonbet
1.97
Superbet
1.97
Betano
1.95
1xBet
1.95
Unibet
1.91
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
18.1%
@ 3.60-8.0%
Under 2.5
81.9%
@ 1.27+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.60
1xBet
3.58
Unibet
3.55
Under
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Bet365
1.25
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Chelsea over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
52.8%
@ 1.47-10.4%
Under
47.2%
@ 2.53+10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.46
Superbet
1.45
Under
1xBet
2.55
Superbet
2.55
Betano
2.50
Chelsea over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
18.5%
@ 3.13-11.0%
Under
81.5%
@ 1.31+11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.15
Betano
3.15
Marathonbet
3.14
1xBet
3.10
Under
Betano
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
Superbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
Chelsea over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.5%
@ 7.80-7.4%
Under
95.5%
@ 1.05+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.50
Superbet
7.70
Betano
7.20
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.02
Brighton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
49.5%
@ 1.85-0.5%
Under
50.5%
@ 1.86+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.87
Superbet
1.85
Betano
1.82
Under
Betano
1.91
Superbet
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.83
Brighton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
15.1%
@ 5.25-2.6%
Under
84.9%
@ 1.13+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.45
Superbet
5.20
Betano
4.85
Under
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Brighton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.7%
@ 13.88-3.2%
Under
96.3%
@ 1.02+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
17.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+6.3%
✗ Miss
Under 6.5
97.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
+3.3%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.5%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.02
-
-
+7.4%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
93.6%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Unibet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
+4.3%
✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals
93.3%
1.08
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
+6.6%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.3%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.7%
1.12
Superbet
1.16
Betano
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.12
+5.4%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.9%
1.18
Superbet
1.20
Betano
1.19
Marathonbet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Unibet
1.16
+8.2%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
86.1%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Bet365
1.10
BetVictor
1.08
+0.7%
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
86.1%
1.06
Bet365
1.07
Unibet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
-
-
-1.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.9%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
-
+2.6%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
84.9%
1.18
Superbet
1.22
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Betfair
1.18
Unibet
1.17
+5.6%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.9%
1.27
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Bet365
1.25
+8.0%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
81.5%
1.31
Betano
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
Superbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
-
+11.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
80.6%
1.31
Superbet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.31
+9.3%
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
79.0%
1.31
Superbet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.32
Bet365
1.30
Unibet
1.29
Betfair
1.25
+10.0%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
79.0%
1.24
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.19
-
-
-
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
77.9%
1.19
Betano
1.22
BetVictor
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Unibet
1.19
-0.8%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
77.9%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Unibet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
-4.1%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.8%
1.18
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
-2.3%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
76.0%
1.37
1xBet
1.37
-
-
-
-
+9.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
75.3%
1.35
Unibet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.37
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.31
-
+7.1%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
72.5%
1.25
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Superbet
1.27
Betano
1.26
-2.8%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
72.2%
1.34
Pinnacle
1.37
1xBet
1.36
Betano
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
Superbet
1.34
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
71.9%
1.43
Superbet
1.55
Betano
1.47
Betfair
1.44
Unibet
1.43
1xBet
1.36
+7.4%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.3%
1.31
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.31
BetVictor
1.30
-0.6%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
71.3%
1.26
1xBet
1.26
-
-
-
-
-1.1%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Chelsea
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
João Pedro67%
Cole Palmer67%
Pedro Neto33%
Morgan Rogers33%
Roméo Lavia33%
Reece James0%
Maxence Lacroix0%
Malo Gusto0%
Pep Chavarría0%
Jorrel Hato0%
Josh Acheampong0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Reece James33%
Roméo Lavia33%
Pedro Neto0%
João Pedro0%
Morgan Rogers0%
Maxence Lacroix0%
Cole Palmer0%
Malo Gusto0%
Pep Chavarría0%
Jorrel Hato0%
Josh Acheampong0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
João Pedro67%
Morgan Rogers33%
Maxence Lacroix33%
Cole Palmer33%
Malo Gusto33%
Jorrel Hato33%
Pedro Neto0%
Reece James0%
Pep Chavarría0%
Roméo Lavia0%
Josh Acheampong0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
João Pedro67%
Cole Palmer67%
Pedro Neto0%
Morgan Rogers0%
Reece James0%
Maxence Lacroix0%
Malo Gusto0%
Pep Chavarría0%
Roméo Lavia0%
Jorrel Hato0%
Josh Acheampong0%
Brighton
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Maxim De Cuyper50%
Pascal Groß25%
Olivier Boscagli25%
Mats Wieffer25%
Charalampos Kostoulas25%
Malick Yalcouyé25%
Lewis Dunk0%
Bart Verbruggen0%
Costinha0%
Yasin Ayari0%
Diego Gómez0%
Ibrahim Osman0%
Luka Vušković0%
Zadok Yohanna0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lewis Dunk33%
Costinha33%
Yasin Ayari33%
Pascal Groß25%
Olivier Boscagli25%
Luka Vušković25%
Mats Wieffer0%
Bart Verbruggen0%
Maxim De Cuyper0%
Diego Gómez0%
Ibrahim Osman0%
Charalampos Kostoulas0%
Malick Yalcouyé0%
Zadok Yohanna0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Maxim De Cuyper25%
Diego Gómez25%
Charalampos Kostoulas25%
Lewis Dunk0%
Pascal Groß0%
Olivier Boscagli0%
Mats Wieffer0%
Bart Verbruggen0%
Costinha0%
Yasin Ayari0%
Ibrahim Osman0%
Luka Vušković0%
Malick Yalcouyé0%
Zadok Yohanna0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Diego Gómez50%
Yasin Ayari33%
Maxim De Cuyper25%
Charalampos Kostoulas25%
Lewis Dunk0%
Pascal Groß0%
Olivier Boscagli0%
Mats Wieffer0%
Bart Verbruggen0%
Costinha0%
Ibrahim Osman0%
Luka Vušković0%
Malick Yalcouyé0%
Zadok Yohanna0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
IPS (31)
€280m
COV (27)
€237m
HUL (27)
€105m
Chelsea's squad is €787m more valuable than Brighton's (€1407m vs €620m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
COV (8)
€85m
HUL (7)
€22m
Chelsea's attack is €424m more valuable than Brighton's (€614m vs €190m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
IPS (7)
€66m
COV (6)
€52m
NFO (4)
€52m
HUL (8)
€31m
FUL (3)
€28m
Chelsea's midfield is €98m more valuable than Brighton's (€278m vs €180m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
COV (13)
€99m
IPS (13)
€85m
HUL (12)
€52m
Chelsea's defence is €266m more valuable than Brighton's (€514m vs €249m).
England: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
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Manchester City
Arsenal
Hull
Brentford
Newcastle
Everton
Leeds
Manchester United
Sunderland
Ipswich
Liverpool
Nottingham Forest
Bournemouth
Fulham
Coventry
Crystal Palace
Aston Villa
Tottenham