PythiaFootballBETA
Club Brugge KV is the clear favourite to win against Gent, with a 74% chance of a home win according to the model. The model's high rating for Club Brugge KV is due in part to Gent's struggles on the road, where they have been conceding an average of 2.5 goals per game against opponents of similar strength.
The model predicts a 3.7 expected total goals, with the most likely total being 3 goals. The single most likely score is 2-0, with a probability of 9.3%. Club Brugge KV has been scoring an average of 3 goals per game at home, while conceding just 1.33 goals. Gent, on the other hand, has been scoring an average of 1.25 goals per game on the road, while conceding 2.5 goals.
The model's selections include Over 1.5 with a 89% chance of hitting, and Over 2.5 with a 71.4% chance of hitting, with a 4% edge. The home win percentage is 74%, the draw percentage is 16%, and the away win percentage is 10%. The model's selection is Home win, with a 74% chance of occurring.
Club Brugge KV's win extends their 3-game winning run, a testament to their recent form. The 5-0 scoreline was a convincing one, as the home side dominated the match. The model's selection, Home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 74%. The model's call was vindicated, as the favourites delivered. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a pre-match probability of 89%, while Over 2.5 goals also came in, as predicted with a 71.4% chance. The model's call was spot on, with the actual result matching the predicted outcome.
Club Brugge KV| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.57 | 1.50 | 3.00 | 1.43 | 2.19 | 1.56 |
| vs Stronger (11) | 2.45 | 1.91 | 2.83 | 1.67 | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| vs Similar (18) | 2.61 | 1.33 | 3.14 | 1.43 | 2.27 | 1.27 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 3.00 | 0.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-8pp vs league) | |||||
Gent| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.30 | 1.23 | 1.40 | 1.07 | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (16) | 1.06 | 1.56 | 1.22 | 1.33 | 0.86 | 1.86 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 1.91 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.80 | 1.83 | 1.17 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
| Gent goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 6.2% | 7.2% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 9.3% | 8.9% | 4.3% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 8.5% | 8.2% | 3.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 5.8% | 5.6% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
Club Brugge KVGentClub Brugge KV| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.4 | 10.4 | 10.5 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 20.2 | 19.5 | 21.0 |
| vs Stronger (20) | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.3 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 19.7 | 18.8 | 20.6 |
| vs Similar (27) | 10.6 | 10.8 | 10.3 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 20.8 | 20.2 | 21.3 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 11.0 | 7.0 | 15.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 19.0 | 18.0 | 20.0 |
| % over line | 60% | 57% | 62% | 40% | 29% | 50% | 38% | 30% | 46% |
| % under line | 40% | 43% | 38% | 60% | 71% | 50% | 62% | 70% | 54% |
Gent| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.3 | 10.2 | 10.4 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 21.4 | 21.7 | 21.2 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 11.4 | 14.0 | 9.7 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 21.2 | 18.5 | 23.0 |
| vs Similar (29) | 10.2 | 10.3 | 10.1 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 20.7 | 21.2 | 20.1 |
| vs Weaker (16) | 10.1 | 8.9 | 11.3 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 23.1 | 23.7 | 22.4 |
| % over line | 55% | 46% | 65% | 40% | 48% | 32% | 47% | 50% | 43% |
| % under line | 45% | 54% | 35% | 60% | 52% | 68% | 53% | 50% | 57% |
Club Brugge KV| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.20 | 0.60 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 0.94 | 0.69 |
| vs Stronger (11) | 1.36 | 0.73 | 1.50 | 0.67 | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| vs Similar (18) | 1.00 | 0.56 | 1.29 | 0.43 | 0.82 | 0.64 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 3.00 | 0.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
Gent| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.57 | 0.67 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.53 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (16) | 0.56 | 0.62 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.43 | 0.57 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 0.82 | 0.64 | 0.80 | 0.60 | 0.83 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
Club Brugge KV| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.37 | 0.90 | 1.50 | 0.93 | 1.25 | 0.88 |
| vs Stronger (11) | 1.09 | 1.18 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| vs Similar (18) | 1.61 | 0.78 | 1.86 | 1.00 | 1.45 | 0.64 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
Gent| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.73 | 0.47 | 0.60 | 0.87 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (16) | 0.50 | 0.94 | 0.56 | 0.67 | 0.43 | 1.29 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 1.09 | 0.36 | 1.20 | 0.20 | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 89.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 cards | 86.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 85.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 23.5 fouls | 74.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 4.5 cards | 73.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 8.5 corners | 71.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 | 71.4% | 1.37 | - | - | - | - | - | +3.7% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 21/12/25 | H | 2-1 | |
| 31/08/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 01/05/25 | H | 4-1 | |
| 20/04/25 | A | 0-5 | |
| 01/03/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 22/09/24 | H | 2-4 | |
| 17/12/23 | H | 2-0 |
Club Brugge KV| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/05/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 17/05/26 | H | 5-0 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 22/04/26 | H | 6-1 | |
| 19/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 06/04/26 | H | 4-2 | |
| 22/03/26 | H | 4-1 |
Gent| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/05/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 22/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 19/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 22/03/26 | A | 1-3 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Club Brugge KV | 40 | 88 | 70% | 2.2 | 91 | 45 | +46 | 3.4 | 78% | 65% | 35% | 11.0 | 68% | 3.9 | 49% | 20.9 | 45% | 274 | 130 | 65 | 79 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 60% |
| 2 |  Union St. Gilloise | 40 | 86 | 62% | 2.1 | 66 | 27 | +39 | 2.3 | 70% | 40% | 20% | 9.4 | 55% | 4.9 | 71% | 21.6 | 52% | 163 | 59 | 69 | 35 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 52% |
| 3 |  St. Truiden | 40 | 71 | 55% | 1.8 | 61 | 46 | +15 | 2.7 | 80% | 55% | 25% | 10.2 | 68% | 4.0 | 54% | 21.4 | 52% | 53 | 29 | 10 | 13 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 55% |
| 4 |  Genk | 41 | 60 | 37% | 1.5 | 58 | 54 | +4 | 2.7 | 83% | 54% | 15% | 9.8 | 49% | 3.8 | 50% | 22.2 | 54% | 182 | 106 | 20 | 56 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 58% |
| 5 |  Standard Liege | 40 | 57 | 40% | 1.4 | 44 | 46 | -2 | 2.2 | 72% | 45% | 12% | 10.0 | 45% | 4.5 | 68% | 22.3 | 52% | 57 | 16 | 9 | 32 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 44% |
| 6 |  Anderlecht | 40 | 55 | 38% | 1.4 | 59 | 62 | -3 | 3.0 | 75% | 52% | 45% | 10.5 | 70% | 5.3 | 72% | 24.6 | 78% | 126 | 46 | 38 | 42 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 53% |
| 7 | Gent | 41 | 52 | 32% | 1.3 | 54 | 58 | -4 | 2.7 | 80% | 49% | 34% | 10.4 | 59% | 3.7 | 45% | 21.5 | 44% | 62 | 24 | 21 | 16 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 49% |
| 8 |  KVC Westerlo | 40 | 52 | 35% | 1.3 | 50 | 57 | -7 | 2.7 | 78% | 42% | 22% | 10.2 | 57% | 3.9 | 60% | 23.7 | 68% | 66 | 32 | 11 | 23 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 49% |
| 9 |  Charleroi | 40 | 51 | 35% | 1.3 | 50 | 50 | +0 | 2.5 | 78% | 40% | 22% | 10.7 | 57% | 4.0 | 54% | 22.1 | 55% | 44 | 11 | 14 | 19 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 50% |
| 10 |  KV Mechelen | 40 | 51 | 32% | 1.3 | 48 | 61 | -13 | 2.7 | 75% | 48% | 32% | 10.3 | 50% | 4.2 | 57% | 22.4 | 50% | 51 | 12 | 7 | 32 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 49% |
| 11 |  Zulte Waregem | 36 | 48 | 36% | 1.3 | 53 | 53 | +0 | 2.9 | 81% | 53% | 36% | 9.8 | 50% | 3.6 | 39% | 23.1 | 61% | 32 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 48% |
| 12 |  Antwerp | 40 | 48 | 32% | 1.2 | 43 | 48 | -5 | 2.3 | 72% | 40% | 15% | 9.3 | 50% | 4.5 | 60% | 24.6 | 75% | 97 | 17 | 24 | 57 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 49% |
| 13 |  Cercle Brugge | 36 | 41 | 28% | 1.1 | 53 | 58 | -5 | 3.1 | 89% | 58% | 36% | 10.8 | 69% | 3.7 | 50% | 22.8 | 61% | 44 | 14 | 9 | 22 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 48% |
| 14 |  OH Leuven | 40 | 40 | 25% | 1.0 | 41 | 60 | -19 | 2.5 | 75% | 45% | 25% | 11.1 | 68% | 5.1 | 68% | 25.6 | 72% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 46% |
| 15 |  RAAL La Louvière | 36 | 34 | 19% | 0.9 | 35 | 50 | -15 | 2.4 | 64% | 47% | 22% | 9.4 | 50% | 3.6 | 49% | 23.6 | 67% | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 39% |
| 16 |  Dender | 38 | 26 | 13% | 0.7 | 33 | 65 | -32 | 2.6 | 71% | 55% | 29% | 9.5 | 47% | 3.8 | 53% | 22.1 | 55% | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 48% |
| 17 |  Lommel United | 6 | 16 | 83% | 2.7 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 3.2 | 83% | 83% | 50% | 11.0 | 83% | 3.8 | 50% | 23.2 | 50% | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 45% |
| 18 |  Beerschot VA | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3.8 | 100% | 75% | 75% | 9.5 | 50% | 4.8 | 75% | 26.5 | 100% | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 64% |
| 19 |  Patro Eisden | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3.5 | 100% | 50% | 50% | 7.5 | 0% | 5.5 | 100% | 27.0 | 100% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 29% |
| 20 |  Liège | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 3.0 | 100% | 100% | 0% | 10.0 | 50% | 3.0 | 0% | 21.0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 56% |