Pythia gives Como a 56% win probability against Parma in the Italy: Serie A on 2026-05-17, with 28% for the draw and 16% for Parma. The model estimates around 2.3 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (28%) and 1-0 the most likely scoreline (14.4%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 11.5 corners (88%), Over 19.5 fouls (82%), Under 10.5 corners (80%), Under 3.5 (80%).
Results analysis
Como finished 1-0 against Parma (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 56% home win, 28% draw and 16% away win. Picks that landed: Over 19.5 fouls (82%), Under 3.5 (80%), Under 5.5 cards (79%). Missed: Under 11.5 corners (88%), Under 10.5 corners (80%), Over 2.5 cards (76%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Como win✓ Hit
55.9%
Avg Implied 75.3% · @ 1.24
Edge
-19.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.6%
Avg Implied 16.4% · @ 5.69
Edge
+11.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Parma win✗ Miss
16.5%
Avg Implied 8.2% · @ 11.34
Edge
+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Como
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
0.77
2.00
0.87
1.53
0.67
vs Stronger (11)
1.00
1.27
1.33
1.33
0.60
1.20
vs Similar (6)
1.33
0.83
1.33
1.00
1.33
0.67
vs Weaker (13)
2.62
0.31
3.00
0.33
2.29
0.29
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Parma) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Parma
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.27
0.80
1.47
0.80
1.07
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
1.83
1.00
2.17
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (16)
0.69
0.88
0.50
1.00
0.88
0.75
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Como) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
68.3%
Under 1.5
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.7%
@ 1.62-17.0%
Under 2.5
59.3%
@ 2.21+17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.3%
Under 3.5
79.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
42.7%
No
57.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0 ✓
14.4%
1-1
12.7%
2-0
12.2%
0-0
11.1%
2-1
9.1%
3-0
6.4%
0-1
6.2%
3-1
4.7%
Como goals ↓
Parma goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
6.2%
2.7%
0.7%
0.1%
1
14%
13%
4.3%
1.1%
0.2%
2
12%
9.1%
3.4%
0.8%
0.2%
3
6.4%
4.7%
1.8%
0.4%
0.1%
4
2.5%
1.9%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Como goals (down), columns = Parma goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Inter
2.29
Napoli
2.00
AS Roma
1.92
Como
1.87
AC Milan
1.84
Juventus
1.82
Atalanta
1.55
Bologna
1.47
Lazio
1.42
Udinese
1.32
Sassuolo
1.29
Torino
1.18
Parma
1.18
Cagliari
1.13
Fiorentina
1.11
Genoa
1.08
Lecce
1.00
Cremonese
0.89
Hellas Verona
0.55
Pisa
0.47
Como is 0.68 points better than Parma in terms of average points per game (1.87 vs 1.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Inter
2.34
Como
1.71
Juventus
1.61
AS Roma
1.55
Napoli
1.53
AC Milan
1.39
Atalanta
1.34
Bologna
1.29
Sassuolo
1.21
Udinese
1.18
Torino
1.16
Genoa
1.08
Fiorentina
1.08
Lazio
1.08
Cagliari
1.05
Cremonese
0.84
Lecce
0.74
Parma
0.74
Pisa
0.68
Hellas Verona
0.66
Como is 0.97 goals better than Parma in terms of goals scored per game (1.71 vs 0.74).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Como
0.76
AS Roma
0.82
Juventus
0.89
Inter
0.92
AC Milan
0.92
Napoli
0.95
Atalanta
0.95
Lazio
1.05
Bologna
1.21
Parma
1.21
Udinese
1.26
Fiorentina
1.32
Lecce
1.32
Sassuolo
1.32
Genoa
1.34
Cagliari
1.39
Cremonese
1.50
Hellas Verona
1.61
Torino
1.66
Pisa
1.87
Como is 0.45 goals better than Parma in terms of goals conceded per game (0.76 vs 1.21).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Como
62%
Inter
60%
Napoli
59%
Juventus
58%
AS Roma
56%
Atalanta
55%
Bologna
55%
AC Milan
52%
Fiorentina
51%
Lazio
50%
Genoa
49%
Cremonese
46%
Sassuolo
46%
Udinese
46%
Cagliari
46%
Torino
44%
Parma
44%
Lecce
42%
Pisa
40%
Hellas Verona
40%
Como is 17.6 percentage points better than Parma in terms of average possession (62% vs 44%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Como
For 4.6 · Against 2.8 · Total 7.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.9 · Against 13.3 · Total 26.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Parma
For 4.0 · Against 5.5 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 11.9 · Total 23.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Como
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.4
6.8
8.0
4.7
4.6
4.8
26.7
25.4
27.9
vs Stronger (16)
7.3
6.9
7.8
5.1
5.0
5.1
25.4
24.1
26.6
vs Similar (12)
7.5
6.8
8.0
5.2
5.4
5.1
26.4
22.6
29.1
vs Weaker (22)
7.5
6.8
8.2
4.1
4.1
4.2
27.8
27.5
28.1
% over line
26%
16%
36%
72%
72%
72%
82%
72%
92%
% under line
74%
84%
64%
28%
28%
28%
18%
28%
8%
This opponent (Parma) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Parma
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.7
8.5
8.8
3.9
4.2
3.7
24.4
24.5
24.2
vs Stronger (20)
8.7
7.6
10.0
3.5
4.0
2.9
20.5
20.9
20.0
vs Similar (26)
8.7
8.9
8.4
4.1
4.3
3.9
26.9
27.8
26.1
vs Weaker (4)
8.8
13.0
7.3
4.8
4.0
5.0
27.0
21.0
29.0
% over line
40%
44%
36%
60%
68%
52%
74%
76%
72%
% under line
60%
56%
64%
40%
32%
48%
26%
24%
28%
This opponent (Como) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Lecce
10.1
Udinese
9.7
Juventus
9.7
Bologna
9.5
Atalanta
9.4
Inter
9.3
Cremonese
9.1
Sassuolo
9.0
Cagliari
8.9
AC Milan
8.9
Fiorentina
8.8
Lazio
8.8
Genoa
8.8
AS Roma
8.7
Parma
8.7
Hellas Verona
8.7
Torino
8.6
Napoli
8.5
Pisa
8.3
Como
7.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lazio
5.3
Fiorentina
4.9
Como
4.7
Genoa
4.4
Sassuolo
4.3
Hellas Verona
4.2
Bologna
4.2
AS Roma
4.2
Pisa
4.1
Cremonese
4.0
Parma
3.9
Lecce
3.9
Cagliari
3.8
Juventus
3.8
Udinese
3.8
AC Milan
3.7
Atalanta
3.6
Torino
3.5
Napoli
3.5
Inter
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cremonese
28.6
Bologna
28.6
AS Roma
28.1
Fiorentina
28.0
Cagliari
27.7
Genoa
27.7
Como
26.7
Hellas Verona
26.0
Lecce
25.8
Udinese
25.4
Pisa
25.4
Sassuolo
24.9
Lazio
24.9
Torino
24.6
Parma
24.4
Inter
24.0
Napoli
23.7
Juventus
23.2
AC Milan
21.9
Atalanta
21.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
30.6%
Under 9.5
69.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
55.9%
Under 3.5
44.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
69.3%
Under 21.5
30.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Como
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.33
0.93
0.40
0.60
0.27
vs Stronger (11)
0.55
0.36
0.67
0.50
0.40
0.20
vs Similar (6)
0.67
0.50
0.33
0.33
1.00
0.67
vs Weaker (13)
1.00
0.23
1.50
0.33
0.57
0.14
Clean sheet %
70% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Parma) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Parma
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.50
0.27
0.60
0.33
0.40
vs Stronger (12)
0.25
0.75
0.33
1.00
0.17
0.50
vs Similar (16)
0.25
0.31
0.12
0.25
0.38
0.38
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Como) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Como over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Como over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Como over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Parma over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Parma over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Parma over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 11.5 corners
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 11. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JUV (29)
€480m
NAP (35)
€458m
ATA (34)
€452m
COM (31)
€397m
BOL (36)
€279m
LAZ (30)
€236m
SAS (43)
€212m
FIO (33)
€203m
CAG (43)
€196m
UDI (29)
€180m
GEN (38)
€174m
PAR (34)
€149m
TOR (33)
€124m
LEC (30)
€118m
PIS (38)
€104m
CRE (35)
€76m
HV (37)
€65m
Como's squad is €248m more valuable than Parma's (€397m vs €149m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
COM (10)
€236m
NAP (12)
€214m
JUV (9)
€210m
ATA (10)
€163m
BOL (12)
€136m
LAZ (10)
€78m
SAS (13)
€78m
GEN (14)
€70m
LEC (10)
€66m
CAG (12)
€62m
FIO (8)
€55m
UDI (7)
€41m
PIS (13)
€40m
TOR (10)
€40m
PAR (10)
€36m
CRE (12)
€21m
HV (8)
€18m
Como's attack is €200m more valuable than Parma's (€236m vs €36m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ATA (11)
€141m
JUV (6)
€124m
NAP (7)
€90m
COM (5)
€79m
LAZ (7)
€69m
FIO (8)
€64m
UDI (9)
€64m
SAS (9)
€57m
TOR (10)
€54m
PAR (7)
€47m
PIS (12)
€42m
BOL (6)
€40m
CAG (13)
€37m
GEN (7)
€30m
CRE (10)
€25m
HV (11)
€18m
LEC (9)
€16m
Como's midfield is €32m more valuable than Parma's (€79m vs €47m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAP (16)
€153m
ATA (13)
€148m
JUV (14)
€146m
BOL (18)
€103m
CAG (18)
€97m
LAZ (13)
€88m
FIO (17)
€84m
COM (16)
€81m
SAS (21)
€77m
UDI (13)
€76m
GEN (17)
€74m
PAR (17)
€66m
LEC (11)
€36m
TOR (13)
€31m
CRE (13)
€30m
HV (18)
€29m
PIS (13)
€22m
Como's defence is €15m more valuable than Parma's (€81m vs €66m).
Italy: Serie A 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie A stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Inter
Napoli
AS Roma
AC Milan
Juventus
Atalanta
Bologna
Lazio
Udinese
Sassuolo
Torino
Cagliari
Fiorentina
Genoa
Lecce
Cremonese
Hellas Verona
Pisa