Cove Rangers are tipped to win, a 42% chance against Airdrie United’s 30% and a 28% draw probability. The model expects 2.7 goals on average, with the most likely total being two goals at 26%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 13.5% chance, even though the final result was a 1-0 home win. Cove Rangers, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, average 1.73 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Airdrie United, away, average 0.9 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 5.5 cards at 82.6%, Under 11.5 corners at 75.4%, Under 3.5 at 72.5%, Over 19.5 fouls at 72.3%, and Over 2.5 cards at 71.9%. The model also lists Under 25.5 fouls at 75.0% and Over 1.5 at 75.5%. Cove Rangers are coming off a defeat, while Airdrie United return from a draw, setting the stage for a closely contested match.
Results analysis
Cove Rangers extended their recent form, coming off a defeat to Hamilton Academical, while Airdrie United were still off a draw against East Fife. The model’s favourite, a Home win at 42 percent, proved correct as Cove Rangers edged Airdrie United 1-0. The predicted 2-goal total fell short, but the model’s selections largely held up. Under 5.5 cards at 82.6 percent hit, Under 11.5 corners at 75.4 percent hit, Under 3.5 at 72.5 percent hit, Over 19.5 fouls at 72.3 percent hit and Over 2.5 cards at 71.9 percent hit. Over 1.5 at 75.5 percent missed, and Under 25.5 fouls at 75.0 percent missed. The model’s call and most picks were right.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Cove Rangers win✓ Hit
41.9%
Avg Implied 50.2% · @ 1.83
Edge
-8.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.3%
Avg Implied 25.0% · @ 3.67
Edge
+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United win✗ Miss
29.8%
Avg Implied 24.8% · @ 3.71
Edge
+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Cove Rangers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
0.93
1.79
1.00
1.38
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.33
0.90
1.73
1.00
0.90
0.80
vs Weaker (9)
2.11
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.17
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Airdrie United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Airdrie United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.13
1.75
1.06
1.36
1.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.26
1.13
1.54
1.08
0.90
1.20
vs Weaker (7)
2.57
1.14
2.67
1.00
2.50
1.25
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Cove Rangers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.5%
Under 1.5
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.4%
@ 1.81-2.2%
Under 2.5
50.6%
@ 1.93+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.5%
Under 3.5
72.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.7%
No
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
1-0 ✓
9.0%
2-1
8.9%
0-0
8.3%
2-0
7.5%
1-2
7.3%
0-1
7.2%
2-2
5.3%
Cove Rangers goals ↓
Airdrie United goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.3%
7.2%
5.0%
2.0%
0.6%
1
9.0%
14%
7.3%
2.9%
0.9%
2
7.5%
8.9%
5.3%
2.1%
0.6%
3
3.6%
4.3%
2.6%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.3%
1.6%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cove Rangers goals (down), columns = Airdrie United goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Cove Rangers
2.19
Airdrie United
2.00
Montrose
1.64
Queens Park
1.42
Alloa
1.25
Falkirk
1.22
Peterhead
1.17
Clyde
1.08
Dumbarton
0.94
East Fife
0.64
Cove Rangers is 0.19 points better than Airdrie United in terms of average points per game (2.19 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Cove Rangers
2.03
Airdrie United
1.89
Montrose
1.47
Queens Park
1.42
Falkirk
1.36
Alloa
1.36
Dumbarton
1.33
Peterhead
1.28
Clyde
1.08
East Fife
0.86
Cove Rangers is 0.14 goals better than Airdrie United in terms of goals scored per game (2.03 vs 1.89).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Cove Rangers
0.89
Montrose
1.00
Queens Park
1.00
Airdrie United
1.03
Peterhead
1.42
Falkirk
1.53
Alloa
1.58
Clyde
1.72
East Fife
1.94
Dumbarton
1.97
Cove Rangers is 0.14 goals better than Airdrie United in terms of goals conceded per game (0.89 vs 1.03).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Cove Rangers
For 4.0 · Against 4.0 · Total 8.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 13.0 · Total 25.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Airdrie United
For 4.4 · Against 4.4 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 1.4 · Total 2.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.5 · Against 10.4 · Total 19.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cove Rangers
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.9
9.4
3.8
4.0
3.6
23.3
22.8
23.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
9.2
9.5
8.9
4.0
4.2
3.7
24.5
23.8
25.3
vs Weaker (21)
10.2
10.5
10.0
3.5
3.6
3.5
21.7
21.3
22.0
% over line
46%
44%
48%
52%
56%
48%
58%
64%
52%
% under line
54%
56%
52%
48%
44%
52%
42%
36%
48%
This opponent (Airdrie United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Airdrie United
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.3
10.3
3.4
3.4
3.5
20.8
20.9
20.7
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (34)
10.5
10.7
10.2
3.6
3.7
3.4
21.2
21.8
20.6
vs Weaker (16)
10.0
9.5
10.5
3.2
2.8
3.6
19.9
19.0
20.8
% over line
56%
54%
58%
46%
46%
46%
46%
46%
46%
% under line
44%
46%
42%
54%
54%
54%
54%
54%
54%
This opponent (Cove Rangers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Alloa
10.9
Airdrie United
10.3
Falkirk
10.0
Dumbarton
9.9
Clyde
9.8
Queens Park
9.6
Cove Rangers
9.6
Montrose
9.5
East Fife
9.3
Peterhead
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Peterhead
4.1
Cove Rangers
3.8
Queens Park
3.7
Falkirk
3.7
Montrose
3.7
Airdrie United
3.4
East Fife
3.4
Dumbarton
3.4
Clyde
3.2
Alloa
2.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
24.6
Falkirk
24.2
Cove Rangers
23.3
East Fife
23.2
Montrose
23.2
Alloa
22.7
Dumbarton
22.1
Queens Park
21.9
Clyde
21.1
Airdrie United
20.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
47.6%
Under 9.5
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
51.1%
Under 3.5
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
56.3%
Under 21.5
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Cove Rangers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.20
0.79
0.14
0.69
0.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.52
0.14
0.64
0.09
0.40
0.20
vs Weaker (9)
1.22
0.33
1.33
0.33
1.17
0.33
Clean sheet %
83% (+58pp vs league)
This opponent (Airdrie United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Airdrie United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.50
0.69
0.50
0.64
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.39
0.48
0.54
0.46
0.20
0.50
vs Weaker (7)
1.57
0.57
1.33
0.67
1.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Cove Rangers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cove Rangers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Cove Rangers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.73
1.00
0.86
0.69
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.81
0.76
1.09
0.91
0.50
0.60
vs Weaker (9)
0.89
0.67
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Airdrie United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Airdrie United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.63
1.06
0.56
0.71
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.87
0.65
1.00
0.62
0.70
0.70
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
0.57
1.33
0.33
0.75
0.75
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Cove Rangers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cove Rangers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: League One 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →