Coventry are tipped to lift the trophy at home, the model’s pick for a home win. The match is expected to see 2.6 goals, with the most likely total of two goals, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.8% chance. Coventry’s home form shows they average 1.62 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against teams of similar strength, while Hull’s away form averages 1.46 goals scored and 1.08 conceded in similar matchups. The probabilities for the match result are 52% home win, 27% draw, and 21% away win. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.2% with a 4% edge), Under 6.5 (98.2% with a 3% edge), Under 5.5 (94.8% with a 4% edge), Away under 2.5 goals (92.3% with a 5% edge), Home +2 handicap (92.1% with a 5% edge), Home under 3.5 goals (91.4% with a 3% edge), and Under 4.5 (87.2% with a 5% edge). Coventry, fresh from a loss to Arsenal, will look to bounce back, while Hull, riding a three-game winning streak, will aim to keep their momentum alive.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Hull snatched a 1-0 victory, ending Coventry’s run of two wins after a recent defeat. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was set at 52% and the model’s call was wrong. The final score of 0-1 confirmed the away win. Every model selection was settled: Under 7.5 hit at 99.4%; Away under 3.5 goals hit at 98.2%; Under 6.5 hit at 98.2%; Under 5.5 hit at 94.8%; Away under 2.5 goals hit at 92.3%; Home +2 handicap hit at 92.1%; Home under 3.5 goals hit at 91.4%; and Under 4.5 hit at 87.2%. Each probability was expressed as a percentage and no other figures were repeated.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Coventry win✗ Miss
51.9%
Avg Implied 52.5% · @ 1.82
Edge
-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.87
SBO
1.86
1xBet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.83
Dafabet
1.83
Draw✗ Miss
26.8%
Avg Implied 26.6% · @ 3.59
Edge
+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
3.75
Betano
3.75
1xBet
3.70
Pinnacle
3.67
Superbet
3.65
Hull win✓ Hit
21.2%
Avg Implied 20.8% · @ 4.58
Edge
+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.88
Pinnacle
4.82
Marathonbet
4.80
Bet365
4.75
Unibet
4.70
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Coventry
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.00
1.86
0.86
1.56
1.12
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (17)
1.76
0.88
1.62
1.00
1.89
0.78
vs Weaker (12)
1.75
1.00
2.17
0.67
1.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Hull) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hull
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.13
1.19
1.25
1.29
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.67
1.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
1.30
1.07
1.21
1.14
1.38
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Coventry) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.1%
@ 1.28+1.5%
Under 1.5
24.9%
@ 3.57-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
Pinnacle
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Under
Unibet
3.85
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.74
Superbet
3.70
Betfair
3.70
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.0%
@ 1.90-1.2%
Under 2.5
51.0%
@ 1.92+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.97
Pinnacle
1.96
Betano
1.93
Marathonbet
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Under
SBO
1.98
1xBet
1.97
Unibet
1.95
Pinnacle
1.94
Superbet
1.92
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.2%
@ 3.15-2.7%
Under 3.5
72.8%
@ 1.34+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.33
Betfair
3.30
Betano
3.20
Bet365
3.20
Superbet
3.20
Under
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Betano
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
Unibet
1.36
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.7%
@ 1.78-0.9%
No
48.3%
@ 1.97+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
William Hil
1.80
1xBet
1.79
Marathonbet
1.79
No
Betfair
2.10
Unibet
2.02
Betano
1.98
Superbet
1.97
William Hil
1.95
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%@ 6.46+5.7%
1-0
10.7%@ 7.01+4.1%
2-0
9.8%@ 8.64+4.5%
2-1
9.6%@ 8.06+3.9%
0-0
8.3%@ 9.91+3.7%
0-1 ✓
5.9%@ 12.26+2.1%
1-2
5.7%@ 13.72+2.3%
3-0
5.4%@ 14.43+2.2%
Coventry goals ↓
Hull goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.3%
5.9%
3.5%
1.1%
0.3%
1
11%
13%
5.7%
1.9%
0.5%
2
9.8%
9.6%
4.7%
1.5%
0.4%
3
5.4%
5.3%
2.6%
0.9%
0.2%
4
2.2%
2.2%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Coventry goals (down), columns = Hull goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Arsenal
2.24
Manchester City
2.05
Manchester United
1.87
Aston Villa
1.71
Liverpool
1.58
Bournemouth
1.50
Sunderland
1.42
Brighton
1.39
Brentford
1.39
Fulham
1.37
Chelsea
1.37
Everton
1.29
Newcastle
1.29
Leeds
1.24
Crystal Palace
1.18
Ipswich
1.18
Nottingham Forest
1.16
Tottenham
1.08
Hull
0.98
Coventry
0.97
Coventry is 0.01 points worse than Hull in terms of average points per game (0.97 vs 0.98).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.03
Arsenal
1.87
Manchester United
1.82
Liverpool
1.66
Chelsea
1.53
Bournemouth
1.53
Aston Villa
1.47
Brentford
1.45
Newcastle
1.39
Brighton
1.37
Leeds
1.29
Tottenham
1.26
Nottingham Forest
1.26
Fulham
1.24
Everton
1.24
Ipswich
1.19
Sunderland
1.11
Crystal Palace
1.08
Hull
0.99
Coventry
0.98
Coventry is 0.01 goals worse than Hull in terms of goals scored per game (0.98 vs 0.99).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arsenal
0.71
Manchester City
0.92
Brighton
1.21
Sunderland
1.26
Aston Villa
1.29
Everton
1.32
Manchester United
1.32
Fulham
1.34
Nottingham Forest
1.34
Crystal Palace
1.34
Chelsea
1.37
Brentford
1.37
Liverpool
1.39
Bournemouth
1.42
Newcastle
1.45
Leeds
1.47
Tottenham
1.50
Ipswich
1.58
Hull
1.91
Coventry
1.93
Coventry is 0.02 goals worse than Hull in terms of goals conceded per game (1.93 vs 1.91).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Manchester City
60%
Liverpool
59%
Chelsea
57%
Arsenal
56%
Brighton
53%
Aston Villa
53%
Manchester United
52%
Newcastle
52%
Fulham
51%
Tottenham
50%
Bournemouth
50%
Brentford
47%
Nottingham Forest
46%
Leeds
46%
Crystal Palace
45%
Sunderland
45%
Everton
44%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Coventry
For 4.6 · Against 2.7 · Total 7.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 0.9 · Against 2.0 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.4 · Against 13.6 · Total 24.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Hull
For 4.0 · Against 6.3 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.1 · Against 10.0 · Total 19.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Coventry
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.5
9.7
3.6
3.6
3.7
21.3
21.5
21.2
vs Stronger (1)
10.0
-
10.0
2.0
-
2.0
23.0
-
23.0
vs Similar (29)
9.6
10.0
9.2
3.9
4.2
3.6
21.9
22.6
21.3
vs Weaker (20)
9.6
8.8
10.3
3.3
2.6
3.9
20.4
19.8
20.9
% over line
44%
35%
52%
46%
48%
44%
46%
52%
41%
% under line
56%
65%
48%
54%
52%
56%
54%
48%
59%
This opponent (Hull) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hull
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
9.1
11.7
4.1
3.9
4.3
21.2
21.7
20.6
vs Stronger (4)
9.2
9.0
10.0
4.2
3.7
6.0
20.2
19.0
24.0
vs Similar (46)
10.4
9.1
11.8
4.1
3.9
4.3
21.2
22.0
20.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
59%
42%
78%
58%
59%
57%
41%
50%
30%
% under line
41%
58%
22%
42%
41%
43%
59%
50%
70%
This opponent (Coventry) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Newcastle
11.0
Bournemouth
10.6
Fulham
10.5
Hull
10.4
Manchester City
10.3
Liverpool
10.2
Chelsea
10.0
Tottenham
10.0
Ipswich
10.0
Brentford
9.9
Nottingham Forest
9.9
Brighton
9.6
Coventry
9.6
Manchester United
9.6
Leeds
9.5
Aston Villa
9.4
Sunderland
9.2
Everton
9.1
Arsenal
9.0
Crystal Palace
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tottenham
4.5
Bournemouth
4.5
Chelsea
4.4
Newcastle
4.3
Ipswich
4.2
Sunderland
4.2
Hull
4.1
Manchester United
4.1
Brighton
4.0
Aston Villa
3.8
Brentford
3.7
Manchester City
3.7
Crystal Palace
3.7
Everton
3.6
Coventry
3.6
Liverpool
3.6
Fulham
3.6
Leeds
3.5
Arsenal
3.5
Nottingham Forest
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ipswich
23.8
Aston Villa
23.6
Nottingham Forest
23.5
Bournemouth
23.3
Chelsea
22.8
Sunderland
22.7
Tottenham
22.7
Brighton
22.3
Leeds
22.2
Arsenal
22.1
Manchester United
21.7
Newcastle
21.6
Everton
21.5
Coventry
21.3
Liverpool
21.3
Crystal Palace
21.3
Hull
21.0
Manchester City
21.0
Fulham
19.9
Brentford
19.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
55.8%
@ 1.93+7.1%
Under 9.5
44.2%
@ 1.82-7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.97
Betano
1.93
Superbet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.92
Under
Pinnacle
1.88
Unibet
1.85
Superbet
1.82
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.82
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
56.0%
@ 1.64-1.0%
Under 3.5
44.0%
@ 2.17+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Betano
1.65
Unibet
1.64
Superbet
1.60
Under
Pinnacle
2.35
Superbet
2.22
Betano
2.15
1xBet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
45.1%
@ 1.94-2.8%
Under 21.5
54.9%
@ 1.78+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.02
Betano
1.85
Under
Betano
1.88
Superbet
1.69
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Coventry or Draw✗ Miss
78.8%
Avg Implied 78.6% · @ 1.20
Edge
+0.2%
52%
27%
21%
covers Coventry + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
BetVictor
1.20
Coventry or Hull✓ Hit
73.2%
Avg Implied 73.9% · @ 1.28
Edge
-0.7%
52%
27%
21%
covers Coventry + Hull
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Betano
1.28
Draw or Hull✓ Hit
48.1%
Avg Implied 47.5% · @ 1.99
Edge
+0.5%
52%
27%
21%
covers Draw + Hull
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.06
Marathonbet
2.05
Superbet
2.02
Betano
2.00
Unibet
2.00
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Coventry over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
80.9%
@ 1.16+0.5%
Under
19.1%
@ 4.74-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.15
Under
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Unibet
4.80
BetVictor
4.75
Superbet
4.70
Coventry over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
49.2%
@ 1.84-1.4%
Under
50.8%
@ 1.89+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.89
Pinnacle
1.88
Betano
1.87
Superbet
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Under
1xBet
1.94
Pinnacle
1.94
Unibet
1.94
Marathonbet
1.92
Superbet
1.90
Coventry over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
23.0%
@ 3.66-2.4%
Under
77.0%
@ 1.25+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.80
1xBet
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.75
BetVictor
3.70
Under
Marathonbet
1.27
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Pinnacle
1.26
Unibet
1.26
Coventry over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
8.6%
@ 8.09-2.9%
Under
91.4%
@ 1.06+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
9.50
Bet365
9.00
1xBet
8.80
Superbet
7.80
Marathonbet
7.50
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
Hull over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
62.5%
@ 1.50+0.2%
Under
37.5%
@ 2.48-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.53
1xBet
1.52
Marathonbet
1.51
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.50
Under
Betfair
2.63
Pinnacle
2.54
Betano
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Unibet
2.48
Hull over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
25.7%
@ 3.43-1.5%
Under
74.3%
@ 1.29+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.69
Marathonbet
3.62
BetVictor
3.60
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.40
Under
1xBet
1.31
Betano
1.31
Unibet
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Hull over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.7%
@ 9.03-2.7%
Under
92.3%
@ 1.04+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
1xBet
10.50
Marathonbet
9.60
Betfair
9.50
Superbet
8.90
Under
BetVictor
1.06
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Unibet
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Hull over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 22.50-2.5%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.01+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
29.00
Superbet
26.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Coventry, so a minus line means Coventry give that many goals of a start and Hull receive them. At -1, Coventry must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Coventry win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Coventry)Actual: Hull
Coventry -2
12.3%
@ 6.39-1.7%
Draw -2
16.3%
@ 5.01-1.6%
Hull +2
71.4%
@ 1.32+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
6.50
Superbet
6.30
Unibet
6.00
Marathonbet
5.65
Draw
Superbet
5.15
Marathonbet
5.10
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Unibet
4.80
Away
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Unibet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Betfair
1.25
Handicap -1 (Coventry)Actual: Hull
Coventry -1
28.6%
@ 3.11-0.5%
Draw -1
23.3%
@ 3.57-2.1%
Hull +1
48.1%
@ 2.00+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Superbet
3.10
Unibet
2.95
Marathonbet
2.93
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.70
Marathonbet
3.55
Unibet
3.45
Betfair
3.40
Away
Marathonbet
2.05
Superbet
2.02
Unibet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Betfair
1.91
Handicap +1 (Coventry)Actual: Draw
Coventry +1
78.8%
@ 1.19+2.5%
Draw +1
13.4%
@ 6.11-1.5%
Hull -1
7.9%
@ 10.14-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.21
Superbet
1.21
Bet365
1.18
Unibet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Superbet
6.20
Marathonbet
6.05
Betfair
6.00
Unibet
5.80
Away
Betfair
11.00
Bet365
11.00
Superbet
9.70
Unibet
9.50
Marathonbet
9.50
Handicap +2 (Coventry)Actual: Coventry
Coventry +2
92.1%
@ 1.04+3.0%
Draw +2
5.7%
@ 12.67-1.6%
Hull -2
2.1%
@ 26.67-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.05
Unibet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
13.00
Unibet
10.00
Away
Betfair
34.00
Bet365
29.00
Unibet
17.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Coventry
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.33
0.64
0.36
0.94
0.31
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (17)
0.94
0.29
0.50
0.38
1.33
0.22
vs Weaker (12)
0.67
0.25
0.83
0.33
0.50
0.17
Clean sheet %
73% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Hull) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hull
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.47
0.81
0.62
0.79
0.29
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.81
0.48
0.79
0.64
0.85
0.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Coventry) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
1xBet
1.43
BetVictor
1.39
Superbet
1.38
Under
Pinnacle
3.10
Betfair
3.10
Superbet
3.05
Bet365
3.00
William Hil
3.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.89
Betfair
2.88
Betano
2.87
1xBet
2.81
Marathonbet
2.81
Under
Superbet
1.46
1xBet
1.43
Pinnacle
1.43
Marathonbet
1.43
Betano
1.42
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.00
William Hil
7.00
Superbet
6.80
Under
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
William Hil
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Coventry over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.82
Pinnacle
1.80
1xBet
1.79
Marathonbet
1.79
Superbet
1.73
Under
Pinnacle
2.03
Unibet
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Betano
1.93
Marathonbet
1.92
Coventry over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.90
1xBet
4.90
Betano
4.75
Unibet
4.60
Superbet
4.50
Under
Superbet
1.17
Betano
1.16
Unibet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Coventry over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Hull over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.72
Marathonbet
2.62
1xBet
2.62
Betano
2.60
Superbet
2.57
Under
Pinnacle
1.47
Betano
1.45
Superbet
1.45
Unibet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
Hull over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.25
1xBet
10.20
Superbet
9.30
Unibet
9.00
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
Unibet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Hull over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
40.00
Betano
15.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Coventry
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.67
1.21
0.50
0.62
0.81
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.82
0.59
1.12
0.62
0.56
0.56
vs Weaker (12)
1.08
0.75
1.33
0.33
0.83
1.17
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Hull) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hull
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.67
0.38
0.62
0.50
0.71
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.33
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.48
0.59
0.43
0.50
0.54
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Coventry) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
Under
Superbet
4.00
Unibet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Betano
3.95
1xBet
3.94
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.10
1xBet
2.10
William Hil
2.10
Betano
2.05
Under
Marathonbet
1.76
1xBet
1.76
Betano
1.75
Unibet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.80
Superbet
4.60
Marathonbet
4.35
1xBet
4.35
Bet365
4.33
Under
Betano
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Coventry over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.53
Superbet
1.53
Betano
1.53
Under
Betano
2.40
1xBet
2.38
Superbet
2.35
Coventry over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.55
1xBet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.40
Betano
3.40
Under
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Superbet
1.25
Coventry over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.70
Superbet
9.20
Betano
7.80
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Hull over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.18
Marathonbet
2.14
Superbet
2.12
Betano
2.07
Under
Betano
1.70
Superbet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.63
1xBet
1.62
Hull over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.20
Superbet
6.70
Betano
6.10
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Hull over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
94.8%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Unibet
1.03
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
92.3%
1.04
BetVictor
1.06
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Unibet
1.05
Superbet
1.05
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
92.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
Unibet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
-
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
91.4%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
87.2%
1.10
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Unibet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.08
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
80.9%
1.16
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.15
+0.5%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
79.0%
1.32
Pinnacle
1.41
Betano
1.30
Unibet
1.29
Superbet
1.29
-
+8.8%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
78.8%
1.20
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
BetVictor
1.20
+0.2%
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
78.8%
1.19
Marathonbet
1.21
Superbet
1.21
Bet365
1.18
Unibet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
+2.5%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
77.0%
1.25
Marathonbet
1.27
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Pinnacle
1.26
Unibet
1.26
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
75.7%
1.26
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.24
-
-
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.1%
1.28
Betano
1.31
Pinnacle
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
+1.5%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 goals
74.3%
1.29
1xBet
1.31
Betano
1.31
Unibet
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Superbet
1.29
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
73.2%
1.28
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Betano
1.28
-0.7%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.8%
1.34
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Betano
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
Unibet
1.36
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
71.4%
1.32
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Unibet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Betfair
1.25
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
70.8%
1.82
Betano
1.82
-
-
-
-
+19.3%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Coventry
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Taiwo Awoniyi33%
Victor Torp33%
Jack Rudoni33%
Gustavo Hamer0%
Brandon Thomas-Asante0%
Aurèle Amenda0%
Bobby Thomas0%
Caleb Yirenkyi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Aurèle Amenda33%
Caleb Yirenkyi33%
Taiwo Awoniyi0%
Victor Torp0%
Jack Rudoni0%
Gustavo Hamer0%
Brandon Thomas-Asante0%
Bobby Thomas0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Taiwo Awoniyi33%
Victor Torp33%
Caleb Yirenkyi33%
Jack Rudoni0%
Gustavo Hamer0%
Brandon Thomas-Asante0%
Aurèle Amenda0%
Bobby Thomas0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Taiwo Awoniyi33%
Victor Torp0%
Jack Rudoni0%
Gustavo Hamer0%
Brandon Thomas-Asante0%
Aurèle Amenda0%
Bobby Thomas0%
Caleb Yirenkyi0%
Hull
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Liam Millar33%
Regan Slater0%
Cody Drameh0%
Elliot Stroud0%
Mohamed Belloumi0%
Lucas Herrington0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Regan Slater33%
Liam Millar33%
Elliot Stroud33%
Lucas Herrington33%
Cody Drameh0%
Mohamed Belloumi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Regan Slater33%
Liam Millar33%
Mohamed Belloumi33%
Cody Drameh0%
Elliot Stroud0%
Lucas Herrington0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Regan Slater0%
Liam Millar0%
Cody Drameh0%
Elliot Stroud0%
Mohamed Belloumi0%
Lucas Herrington0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
IPS (31)
€280m
COV (27)
€237m
HUL (27)
€105m
Coventry's squad is €132m more valuable than Hull's (€237m vs €105m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
COV (8)
€85m
HUL (7)
€22m
Coventry's attack is €63m more valuable than Hull's (€85m vs €22m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
IPS (7)
€66m
COV (6)
€52m
NFO (4)
€52m
HUL (8)
€31m
FUL (3)
€28m
Coventry's midfield is €22m more valuable than Hull's (€52m vs €31m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
COV (13)
€99m
IPS (13)
€85m
HUL (12)
€52m
Coventry's defence is €46m more valuable than Hull's (€99m vs €52m).
England: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Manchester City
Arsenal
Chelsea
Brentford
Newcastle
Everton
Leeds
Brighton
Manchester United
Sunderland
Ipswich
Liverpool
Nottingham Forest
Bournemouth
Fulham
Crystal Palace
Aston Villa
Tottenham