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Cowdenbeath vs Elgin Result & Analysis

Date: 13/04/2019
Time: 00:00
Final 2-1
Cowdenbeath
Cowdenbeath
Vs
41%
26%
34%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Elgin
Elgin
Scotland: League Two
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Cowdenbeath win✓ Hit
40.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Elgin win✗ Miss
33.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W02L01L12L13L11D00D01L12L41WH·ALB19/02A·EDI23/02A·PET26/02H·STI02/03H·PET05/03A·BER09/03H·QUE23/03A·ALB26/03A·PET30/03H·EDI06/04
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.231.531.331.001.13
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)1.371.111.561.111.201.10
vs Weaker (11)1.091.451.501.670.601.20
Clean sheet %30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElginElgin

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-432W30W22D01L21W14L02L02L01L12LH·STI16/02A·BER23/02H·QUE26/02A·PET02/03H·CLY09/03A·QUE16/03A·CLY19/03H·ALB23/03H·ANN30/03A·STI06/04
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.502.031.532.201.471.87
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)1.821.651.752.381.891.00
vs Weaker (13)1.082.541.292.000.833.17
Clean sheet %17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Cowdenbeath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%23%6%012%123%222%317%411%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.5%
Under 1.5
17.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
59.8%
Under 2.5
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
37.4%
Under 3.5
62.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
62.9%
No
37.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.9%
2-1 ✓
8.8%
1-2
7.9%
2-2
6.5%
1-0
6.3%
2-0
6.0%
0-0
5.6%
0-1
5.6%
Cowdenbeath goals ↓
Elgin goals →
01234
05.6%5.6%4.9%2.4%0.9%
16.3%12%7.9%3.9%1.4%
26.0%8.8%6.5%3.2%1.2%
33.3%4.8%3.5%1.7%0.6%
41.3%1.9%1.4%0.7%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cowdenbeath goals (down), columns = Elgin goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Peterhead
2.19
Clyde
2.17
Edinburgh City
1.86
Annan Athletic
1.83
Stirling
1.31
Cowdenbeath
1.19
Elgin
1.19
Queens Park
1.14
Albion Rvs
0.67
Berwick
0.53
Cowdenbeath and Elgin are level in average points per game (both 1.19).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Annan Athletic
1.94
Peterhead
1.81
Clyde
1.81
Edinburgh City
1.61
Elgin
1.44
Cowdenbeath
1.28
Stirling
1.22
Queens Park
1.17
Albion Rvs
0.81
Berwick
0.75
Cowdenbeath is 0.17 goals worse than Elgin in terms of goals scored per game (1.28 vs 1.44).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Peterhead
0.81
Clyde
0.83
Edinburgh City
0.86
Annan Athletic
1.08
Stirling
1.25
Cowdenbeath
1.28
Queens Park
1.33
Elgin
1.86
Albion Rvs
2.00
Berwick
2.53
Cowdenbeath is 0.58 goals better than Elgin in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 1.86).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

For 3.0 · Against 5.3 · Total 8.3

ðŸšĐ Corners

13045457742155221137544912766713109H·EDIA·PETA·ALBH·QUEA·BERH·PETH·STIA·PETA·EDIH·ALB
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.2 · Total 3.0

ðŸŸĻ Cards

6012111124322142211222632363H·EDIA·PETA·ALBH·QUEA·BERH·PETH·STIA·PETA·EDIH·ALB
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.4 · Against 8.3 · Total 20.7

⚠ïļ Fouls

260881381171797101211107151114417816211826172317261825H·EDIA·PETA·ALBH·QUEA·BERH·PETH·STIA·PETA·EDIH·ALB
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

ElginElgin

For 4.6 · Against 5.8 · Total 10.4

ðŸšĐ Corners

1401567842103652594465666131212971481112A·STIH·ANNH·ALBA·CLYA·QUEH·CLYA·PETH·QUEA·BERH·STI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.1 · Total 2.5

ðŸŸĻ Cards

50111111112122322212222214523A·STIH·ANNH·ALBA·CLYA·QUEH·CLYA·PETH·QUEA·BERH·STI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.1 · Against 10.0 · Total 18.1

⚠ïļ Fouls

25081611106725947910151213913782421137131625252215A·STIH·ANNH·ALBA·CLYA·QUEH·CLYA·PETH·QUEA·BERH·STI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)8.67.89.34.04.04.023.023.322.6
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (26)8.58.09.03.73.63.722.323.521.0
vs Weaker (24)8.67.79.64.34.34.323.723.124.3
% over line40%32%48%56%52%60%64%76%52%
% under line60%68%52%44%48%40%36%24%48%
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElginElgin

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.09.510.63.03.12.920.920.920.9
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (24)9.69.39.83.03.13.021.621.222.1
vs Weaker (26)10.49.611.33.03.12.820.320.719.8
% over line54%46%62%32%31%33%46%42%50%
% under line46%54%38%68%69%67%54%58%50%
This opponent (Cowdenbeath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Albion Rvs
10.5
Stirling
10.2
Elgin
10.0
Queens Park
9.7
Annan Athletic
9.6
Peterhead
9.5
Berwick
9.3
Edinburgh City
9.2
Clyde
8.9
Cowdenbeath
8.6

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Cowdenbeath
4.0
Annan Athletic
3.8
Edinburgh City
3.8
Queens Park
3.6
Clyde
3.6
Peterhead
3.4
Stirling
3.3
Berwick
3.3
Elgin
3.0
Albion Rvs
2.7

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
25.5
Edinburgh City
24.2
Annan Athletic
23.2
Berwick
23.2
Cowdenbeath
23.0
Stirling
22.4
Albion Rvs
20.9
Elgin
20.9
Clyde
20.6
Queens Park
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
41.1%
Under 9.5
58.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
41.9%
Under 3.5
58.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
50.5%
Under 21.5
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D02L01L01L12L11D00D01L11D20WH·ALB19/02A·EDI23/02A·PET26/02H·STI02/03H·PET05/03A·BER09/03H·QUE23/03A·ALB26/03A·PET30/03H·EDI06/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.600.800.530.600.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)0.790.530.780.440.800.60
vs Weaker (11)0.550.730.830.670.200.80
Clean sheet %50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElginElgin

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D00D01L11D11D01L02L01L11DH·STI16/02A·BER23/02H·QUE26/02A·PET02/03H·CLY09/03A·QUE16/03A·CLY19/03H·ALB23/03H·ANN30/03A·STI06/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.601.130.471.330.730.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.590.880.381.380.780.44
vs Weaker (13)0.621.460.571.290.671.67
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Cowdenbeath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cowdenbeath over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cowdenbeath over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cowdenbeath over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D00D11D01L00D00D00D01L21WH·ALB19/02A·EDI23/02A·PET26/02H·STI02/03H·PET05/03A·BER09/03H·QUE23/03A·ALB26/03A·PET30/03H·EDI06/04
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.630.730.800.400.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)0.580.580.780.670.400.50
vs Weaker (11)0.550.730.671.000.400.40
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElginElgin

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W30W22D00D10W03L01L00D00D01LH·STI16/02A·BER23/02H·QUE26/02A·PET02/03H·CLY09/03A·QUE16/03A·CLY19/03H·ALB23/03H·ANN30/03A·STI06/04
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.901.070.870.730.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)1.240.761.381.001.110.56
vs Weaker (13)0.461.080.710.710.171.50
Clean sheet %47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Cowdenbeath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cowdenbeath over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cowdenbeath over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cowdenbeath over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 5.5 cards88.3%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.582.5%-------✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners80.4%-------✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls79.5%-------✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards76.3%-------✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners70.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (2)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (1)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
COW wins
2
Draws
4
ELG wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Cowdenbeath vs Elgin · H/A from COW
DateH/AGameScore
12/01/19AElgin Vs COW1-4
03/11/18HCOW Vs Elgin1-2
13/10/18AElgin Vs COW3-1
17/03/18HCOW Vs Elgin3-1
13/01/18AElgin Vs COW1-0
11/11/17HCOW Vs Elgin1-3
05/08/17AElgin Vs COW1-1
06/05/17AElgin Vs COW0-0

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/04/19HCOW Vs Edinburgh City4-1
30/03/19APeterhead Vs COW2-1
26/03/19AAlbion Rvs Vs COW1-0
23/03/19HCOW Vs Queens Park0-0
09/03/19ABerwick Vs COW1-1
05/03/19HCOW Vs Peterhead1-3
02/03/19HCOW Vs Stirling1-2
26/02/19APeterhead Vs COW1-0
23/02/19AEdinburgh City Vs COW2-0
19/02/19HCOW Vs Albion Rvs1-0

ElginElgin

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/04/19AStirling Vs ELG2-1
30/03/19HELG Vs Annan Athletic0-1
23/03/19HELG Vs Albion Rvs0-2
19/03/19AClyde Vs ELG2-0
16/03/19AQueens Park Vs ELG4-1
09/03/19HELG Vs Clyde2-1
02/03/19APeterhead Vs ELG1-0
26/02/19HELG Vs Queens Park2-2
23/02/19ABerwick Vs ELG0-3
16/02/19HELG Vs Stirling3-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Cowdenbeath
Cowdenbeath
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLLW0.94
HomeWLLDW1.12
AwayLLDLL0.76
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%32%16%
AVG goals2.422.802.04
Over 1.5 %74%84%64%
Over 2.5 %40%52%28%
Over 3.5 %20%28%12%
Scored1.041.240.84
Conceded1.381.561.20
BTTS48%52%44%
Clean Sheet20%28%12%
Corners8.567.849.28
Cards3.983.964.00
Elgin
Elgin
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL1.28
HomeWDWLL1.54
AwayWLLLL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%46%29%
AVG goals3.183.123.25
Over 1.5 %84%81%88%
Over 2.5 %66%65%67%
Over 3.5 %38%35%42%
Scored1.421.541.29
Conceded1.761.581.96
BTTS52%54%50%
Clean Sheet22%19%25%
Corners10.029.5010.58
Cards3.003.082.92

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1PeterheadPeterhead3679
67%
2.2
6529+36
2.6
78%
50%
22%
9.7
42%
3.5
47%
24.2
69%
0
0001.80.8
-
2ClydeClyde3678
67%
2.2
6530+35
2.6
72%
50%
22%
8.9
33%
3.3
44%
19.7
36%
0
0001.80.8
-
3Edinburgh CityEdinburgh City3667
56%
1.9
5831+27
2.5
69%
44%
28%
8.6
42%
4.0
61%
24.6
75%
0
0001.60.9
-
4Annan AthleticAnnan Athletic3666
56%
1.8
7039+31
3.0
89%
72%
31%
10.1
58%
3.8
50%
23.6
78%
0
0001.91.1
-
5StirlingStirling3647
36%
1.3
4445-1
2.5
64%
50%
22%
11.0
64%
3.4
47%
21.9
50%
0
0001.21.2
-
6CowdenbeathCowdenbeath3643
33%
1.2
4646+0
2.6
75%
44%
22%
9.2
47%
3.7
50%
22.2
56%
0
0001.31.3
-
7ElginElgin3643
36%
1.2
5267-15
3.3
86%
69%
36%
9.9
50%
2.9
28%
21.2
50%
0
0001.41.9
-
8Queens ParkQueens Park3641
28%
1.1
4248-6
2.5
81%
44%
22%
9.4
44%
3.4
36%
20.6
44%
0
0001.21.3
-
9
AR
Albion Rvs
3624
17%
0.7
2972-43
2.8
78%
50%
31%
10.6
64%
2.6
25%
21.7
53%
0
0000.82.0
-
10
B
Berwick
3619
14%
0.5
2791-64
3.3
86%
64%
31%
9.2
44%
3.4
50%
23.8
67%
0
0000.82.5
-
Scotland: League Two 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →

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