Crewe vs Accrington Result & Analysis

Crewe are tipped to win, with a 53% chance of triumph, 26% for a draw and 20% for an Accrington victory. The model expects 2.7 goals in total, most likely a 2-goal match, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 12.4%. Crewe’s home form shows they average 1.6 goals scored and 0.9 conceded against similar opposition, while Accrington, playing away, averages 1.3 goals scored and 2.3 conceded to comparable teams. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 85.6%, Over 2.5 cards at 78.8%, Over 1.5 at 76.5% (miss), Under 11.5 corners at 76.3%, Under 5.5 cards at 75.5% (miss), Over 21.5 fouls at 73.7%, and Under 3.5 at 71.1%. Both sides have recently drawn their last matches, 2-2 against Walsall and Grimsby respectively.

The upset came early, as the pre-match favourite, a Home win at 53%, failed to deliver, with Accrington snatching a 0-1 away victory. The model’s call was wrong, and the final score confirmed the away win. The pre-match favourite had a 53% probability, while the model’s other picks were evaluated: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 85.6%, Over 2.5 cards hit at 78.8%, Over 1.5 missed at 76.5%, Under 11.5 corners hit at 76.3%, Under 5.5 cards missed at 75.5%, Over 21.5 fouls hit at 73.7%, and Under 3.5 hit at 71.1%. Crewe’s recent form shows a draw, while Accrington also came off a draw, setting the stage for a surprising result.