Crewe are tipped to edge Accrington, with a 51% chance of victory against a 28% draw and 21% away win. The match is expected to see 2.5 goals on average, and the model’s most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.1% probability. Crewe, playing at home against a similarly-ranked opponent, averages 1.47 goals scored and 1.20 conceded, while Accrington on the road against a similar side averages 0.85 goals scored and 1.31 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Under 6.5 (98.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.4%), Under 5.5 (95.6%), Away under 2.5 goals (93.0%), Home +2 handicap (92.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (92.3%) and Under 4.5 (88.7%). Crewe’s recent form shows a win-draw-draw-win-win streak, though they just lost 2-3 to Barnsley, while Accrington’s last five contain four defeats and a single win, having been beaten 0-2 by Exeter. The overall shape points to a narrow home win with a modest goal tally.
Results analysis
Crewe’s recent form, now on a run of LWWWD, saw the hosts return to the ground after a 2-3 loss to Barnsley. Accrington, also coming off a defeat, finished their last five with LDLLD. The Pythia model predicted a home win with a 51% probability, and the result was indeed a 2-1 victory for Crewe. The model’s favourite call was correct. Every suggested pick was settled: Under 7.5 hit at 99.5%; Under 6.5 hit at 98.5%; Away under 3.5 goals hit at 98.4%; Under 5.5 hit at 95.6%; Away under 2.5 goals hit at 93.0%; Home +2 handicap hit at 92.3%; Home under 3.5 goals hit at 92.3%; and Under 4.5 hit at 88.7%. The match confirmed the model’s predictions across the board.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Crewe win✓ Hit
51.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Accrington win✗ Miss
21.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Crewe
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.30
1.47
1.20
1.27
1.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.37
1.30
1.47
1.20
1.27
1.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Accrington) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Accrington
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.23
1.00
1.25
0.86
1.21
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.60
0.25
2.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
1.04
1.16
1.25
1.00
0.85
1.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Crewe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.0%
Under 1.5
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.3%
Under 2.5
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.9%
Under 3.5
75.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.7%
No
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
1-0
11.5%
2-0
10.0%
2-1 ✓
9.5%
0-0
9.2%
0-1
6.3%
1-2
5.6%
3-0
5.3%
Crewe goals ↓
Accrington goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.2%
6.3%
3.5%
1.1%
0.3%
1
11%
13%
5.6%
1.8%
0.4%
2
10%
9.5%
4.5%
1.4%
0.3%
3
5.3%
5.0%
2.4%
0.7%
0.2%
4
2.1%
2.0%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Crewe goals (down), columns = Accrington goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Manchester City
3.00
Cardiff
2.40
Millwall
2.33
Arsenal
2.17
Southampton
2.00
Reading
2.00
Doncaster
2.00
Cambridge
2.00
Port Vale
2.00
Accrington
2.00
Wycombe
2.00
Plymouth
2.00
Bradford
2.00
Wigan
2.00
Wolves
2.00
Lincoln
2.00
Brighton
2.00
Chelsea
1.80
Newcastle
1.80
Wrexham
1.75
Fulham
1.75
Grimsby
1.75
Swansea
1.75
Brentford
1.75
Crystal Palace
1.67
Bristol City
1.50
Coventry
1.50
Birmingham
1.50
Stockport
1.50
Cheltenham
1.50
Tottenham
1.50
Everton
1.50
Norwich
1.50
Oxford
1.50
Preston
1.50
Burnley
1.50
Charlton
1.50
Liverpool
1.50
Mansfield
1.50
Barnsley
1.33
Leeds
1.00
West Brom
1.00
Barnet
1.00
Salford
1.00
Fleetwood Town
1.00
Bromley
1.00
Leicester
1.00
Gillingham
1.00
Manchester United
1.00
Hull
1.00
Tranmere
1.00
Walsall
1.00
Bolton
1.00
Sunderland
1.00
Aston Villa
1.00
Ipswich
1.00
Sheffield Weds
0.67
Huddersfield
0.67
Burton
0.50
AFC Wimbledon
0.50
Rotherham
0.50
Stoke
0.50
Derby
0.50
Newport County
0.50
Rochdale
0.48
York
0.36
Sheffield United
0.00
West Ham
0.00
Blackburn
0.00
Blackpool
0.00
Shrewsbury
0.00
Stevenage
0.00
Exeter
0.00
QPR
0.00
Oldham
0.00
Notts County
0.00
Northampton
0.00
Crawley Town
0.00
Bristol Rvs
0.00
Watford
0.00
Leyton Orient
0.00
Bournemouth
0.00
Milton Keynes Dons
0.00
Nottingham Forest
0.00
Portsmouth
0.00
Swindon
0.00
Chesterfield
0.00
Middlesbrough
0.00
Peterboro
0.00
Luton
0.00
Crewe
0.00
Colchester
0.00
Crewe is 2.00 points worse than Accrington in terms of average points per game (0.00 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Brighton
4.00
Hull
3.00
Bolton
3.00
Wolves
2.67
Manchester City
2.33
Wrexham
2.25
Chelsea
2.20
Cardiff
2.00
West Ham
2.00
Doncaster
2.00
Barnet
2.00
QPR
2.00
Fleetwood Town
2.00
Leicester
2.00
Swansea
2.00
Nottingham Forest
2.00
Manchester United
2.00
Plymouth
2.00
Bradford
2.00
Charlton
2.00
Brentford
2.00
Newcastle
1.80
Southampton
1.67
Cambridge
1.67
Accrington
1.67
Lincoln
1.67
Crystal Palace
1.67
Stockport
1.50
Grimsby
1.50
Tottenham
1.50
Preston
1.50
Burnley
1.50
Arsenal
1.50
Reading
1.33
Barnsley
1.33
Millwall
1.33
Sheffield Weds
1.33
Fulham
1.25
Wycombe
1.25
Bristol City
1.00
Coventry
1.00
Sheffield United
1.00
Leeds
1.00
Birmingham
1.00
Blackburn
1.00
Shrewsbury
1.00
Stevenage
1.00
AFC Wimbledon
1.00
West Brom
1.00
Cheltenham
1.00
Oldham
1.00
Crawley Town
1.00
Bromley
1.00
Watford
1.00
Gillingham
1.00
Everton
1.00
Norwich
1.00
Derby
1.00
Portsmouth
1.00
Newport County
1.00
Tranmere
1.00
Swindon
1.00
Huddersfield
1.00
Peterboro
1.00
Crewe
1.00
Sunderland
1.00
Liverpool
1.00
Aston Villa
1.00
Ipswich
1.00
Mansfield
1.00
Port Vale
0.67
Wigan
0.67
Rochdale
0.56
Burton
0.50
Rotherham
0.50
Oxford
0.50
York
0.42
Blackpool
0.00
Exeter
0.00
Salford
0.00
Notts County
0.00
Northampton
0.00
Bristol Rvs
0.00
Leyton Orient
0.00
Bournemouth
0.00
Milton Keynes Dons
0.00
Stoke
0.00
Chesterfield
0.00
Walsall
0.00
Middlesbrough
0.00
Luton
0.00
Colchester
0.00
Crewe is 0.67 goals worse than Accrington in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Salford
0.00
Walsall
0.00
Manchester City
0.33
Wycombe
0.50
Southampton
0.67
Cambridge
0.67
Port Vale
0.67
Millwall
0.67
Wigan
0.67
Crystal Palace
0.67
Brighton
0.67
Fulham
0.75
Brentford
0.75
Arsenal
0.83
Bristol City
1.00
Coventry
1.00
Leeds
1.00
Birmingham
1.00
Blackpool
1.00
Doncaster
1.00
Burton
1.00
Stockport
1.00
Rotherham
1.00
West Brom
1.00
Notts County
1.00
Northampton
1.00
Bromley
1.00
Leyton Orient
1.00
Gillingham
1.00
Tottenham
1.00
Everton
1.00
Tranmere
1.00
Luton
1.00
Lincoln
1.00
Colchester
1.00
Sunderland
1.00
Aston Villa
1.00
Ipswich
1.00
Mansfield
1.00
Cardiff
1.20
Reading
1.33
Accrington
1.33
Newcastle
1.40
AFC Wimbledon
1.50
Cheltenham
1.50
Stoke
1.50
Plymouth
1.50
Derby
1.50
Newport County
1.50
Preston
1.50
Burnley
1.50
Sheffield Weds
1.67
Bradford
1.67
Huddersfield
1.67
Wrexham
1.75
Swansea
1.75
Chelsea
1.80
Sheffield United
2.00
Blackburn
2.00
Barnet
2.00
Exeter
2.00
Grimsby
2.00
Fleetwood Town
2.00
Bristol Rvs
2.00
Leicester
2.00
Watford
2.00
Bournemouth
2.00
Norwich
2.00
Milton Keynes Dons
2.00
Manchester United
2.00
Portsmouth
2.00
Swindon
2.00
Chesterfield
2.00
Wolves
2.00
Peterboro
2.00
Charlton
2.00
Liverpool
2.00
West Ham
3.00
Shrewsbury
3.00
Stevenage
3.00
Barnsley
3.00
QPR
3.00
Oldham
3.00
Crawley Town
3.00
Nottingham Forest
3.00
Hull
3.00
Oxford
3.00
Crewe
3.00
Bolton
3.00
Rochdale
3.31
Middlesbrough
4.00
York
4.45
Crewe is 1.67 goals worse than Accrington in terms of goals conceded per game (3.00 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Leeds
80%
Barnet
77%
Peterboro
72%
Chesterfield
71%
Ipswich
71%
Manchester United
70%
Sunderland
70%
Stoke
66%
Manchester City
66%
Blackburn
65%
Bournemouth
65%
Notts County
64%
Portsmouth
63%
Tranmere
63%
Birmingham
62%
Fulham
62%
Middlesbrough
62%
Hull
61%
Chelsea
60%
Leicester
60%
Liverpool
60%
Stevenage
58%
Oldham
58%
Preston
58%
Brighton
57%
Blackpool
57%
Bristol Rvs
57%
Cardiff
57%
Everton
56%
Coventry
56%
Barnsley
56%
Stockport
55%
West Brom
55%
Nottingham Forest
55%
Tottenham
54%
Arsenal
54%
Aston Villa
54%
Bristol City
54%
Exeter
53%
Newcastle
53%
Bolton
53%
Norwich
52%
Plymouth
52%
Salford
51%
Gillingham
51%
Burnley
51%
Wycombe
50%
Oxford
50%
AFC Wimbledon
50%
Millwall
50%
Doncaster
49%
West Ham
49%
Southampton
49%
Leyton Orient
49%
Swansea
49%
Charlton
48%
Wolves
48%
Lincoln
47%
Reading
46%
Sheffield United
46%
Luton
46%
Wrexham
46%
Derby
45%
Brentford
44%
Grimsby
44%
Shrewsbury
44%
Watford
44%
Crewe
44%
Rotherham
44%
Northampton
43%
Burton
42%
Cheltenham
42%
Wigan
42%
Crystal Palace
42%
Sheffield Weds
40%
Crawley Town
39%
Cambridge
37%
Colchester
37%
Accrington
35%
Fleetwood Town
35%
Milton Keynes Dons
35%
Bradford
33%
Huddersfield
32%
Mansfield
32%
QPR
31%
Port Vale
31%
Newport County
30%
Bromley
30%
Swindon
27%
Walsall
26%
Crewe is 9.0 percentage points better than Accrington in terms of average possession (44% vs 35%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Crewe
For 4.9 · Against 3.6 · Total 8.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 12.5 · Total 23.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Accrington
For 3.6 · Against 6.4 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 11.6 · Total 23.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Crewe
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.1
9.5
3.8
3.5
4.1
25.5
27.3
23.8
vs Stronger (1)
9.0
-
9.0
2.0
-
2.0
27.0
-
27.0
vs Similar (49)
9.3
9.1
9.5
3.8
3.5
4.2
25.5
27.3
23.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
57%
54%
60%
50%
44%
56%
73%
83%
64%
% under line
43%
46%
40%
50%
56%
44%
27%
17%
36%
This opponent (Accrington) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Accrington
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.4
9.9
4.0
3.2
4.8
22.3
22.0
22.5
vs Stronger (9)
10.9
10.2
11.5
4.9
3.4
6.8
24.1
26.8
21.5
vs Similar (41)
9.4
9.3
9.6
3.8
3.2
4.3
21.9
21.1
22.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
51%
44%
58%
52%
35%
71%
49%
48%
50%
% under line
49%
56%
42%
48%
65%
29%
51%
52%
50%
This opponent (Crewe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Crawley Town
11.9
Sheffield United
11.6
Plymouth
11.4
Oxford
11.3
Newcastle
11.1
Millwall
11.1
Leicester
11.0
Southampton
11.0
West Ham
11.0
Swindon
10.9
Middlesbrough
10.9
Stoke
10.8
Portsmouth
10.7
Preston
10.7
Port Vale
10.7
Barnsley
10.6
Cardiff
10.6
Bournemouth
10.5
Luton
10.5
Wigan
10.5
Fulham
10.5
Blackburn
10.5
Hull
10.5
Huddersfield
10.4
Burton
10.4
Norwich
10.4
Bromley
10.3
Grimsby
10.3
Liverpool
10.3
QPR
10.3
Bolton
10.2
Wycombe
10.2
Walsall
10.2
Manchester City
10.2
Blackpool
10.2
Exeter
10.2
Chesterfield
10.2
Peterboro
10.2
Swansea
10.2
Sheffield Weds
10.2
Fleetwood Town
10.1
Barnet
10.1
Watford
10.1
Wrexham
10.1
Birmingham
10.1
Oldham
10.1
Northampton
10.0
Nottingham Forest
10.0
Bristol City
9.9
Tranmere
9.9
Chelsea
9.9
Bradford
9.9
Derby
9.9
Brentford
9.9
Ipswich
9.9
Doncaster
9.9
Tottenham
9.8
Stockport
9.8
Rotherham
9.7
Mansfield
9.7
AFC Wimbledon
9.7
Coventry
9.7
Cheltenham
9.7
Leeds
9.6
Leyton Orient
9.6
Brighton
9.6
Salford
9.6
Manchester United
9.6
Accrington
9.6
Charlton
9.5
Aston Villa
9.5
West Brom
9.5
Everton
9.4
Bristol Rvs
9.4
Newport County
9.4
Wolves
9.4
Notts County
9.4
Gillingham
9.4
Burnley
9.3
Crewe
9.3
Reading
9.3
Colchester
9.2
Sunderland
9.2
Cambridge
9.1
Lincoln
9.1
Arsenal
9.0
York
9.0
Milton Keynes Dons
8.8
Crystal Palace
8.7
Stevenage
8.6
Shrewsbury
8.4
Rochdale
7.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Plymouth
5.0
Tottenham
4.7
Bristol Rvs
4.5
Bournemouth
4.5
Chelsea
4.4
Watford
4.4
Notts County
4.4
Sunderland
4.3
Bradford
4.3
Peterboro
4.2
Manchester United
4.2
Colchester
4.2
Shrewsbury
4.2
Hull
4.2
Ipswich
4.2
Crawley Town
4.2
Newcastle
4.2
Chesterfield
4.1
Brighton
4.1
Rotherham
4.1
Huddersfield
4.1
Derby
4.1
Lincoln
4.0
Accrington
4.0
Leyton Orient
4.0
Sheffield United
4.0
Gillingham
4.0
Southampton
4.0
Swansea
4.0
Blackburn
4.0
Doncaster
3.9
York
3.9
Portsmouth
3.9
Stoke
3.9
Oldham
3.9
Grimsby
3.9
Norwich
3.9
Crewe
3.8
Tranmere
3.8
Brentford
3.8
Bristol City
3.8
Newport County
3.8
Crystal Palace
3.8
QPR
3.8
Stevenage
3.8
Luton
3.8
West Ham
3.8
Wolves
3.8
Aston Villa
3.8
Fleetwood Town
3.7
Bromley
3.7
Birmingham
3.7
Manchester City
3.7
Coventry
3.7
Everton
3.7
Middlesbrough
3.7
Wycombe
3.7
Walsall
3.7
Mansfield
3.7
Bolton
3.7
Cheltenham
3.7
Blackpool
3.7
Barnet
3.7
Milton Keynes Dons
3.6
Millwall
3.6
Burton
3.6
Charlton
3.6
Fulham
3.6
Leicester
3.6
Salford
3.6
Liverpool
3.5
Reading
3.5
West Brom
3.5
Wrexham
3.5
Nottingham Forest
3.5
Arsenal
3.5
Swindon
3.5
Northampton
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
Port Vale
3.5
Leeds
3.4
Oxford
3.4
Barnsley
3.4
Stockport
3.4
Preston
3.4
Exeter
3.3
Burnley
3.2
Wigan
3.2
AFC Wimbledon
3.1
Cambridge
3.1
Rochdale
3.0
Sheffield Weds
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Rochdale
29.0
Crewe
25.7
Crawley Town
25.3
Oldham
25.1
Colchester
25.0
Bradford
24.8
Salford
24.6
Huddersfield
24.5
Notts County
24.5
Stevenage
24.4
Plymouth
24.4
Bristol Rvs
24.2
Rotherham
24.0
Ipswich
24.0
Gillingham
23.9
Luton
23.9
Grimsby
23.9
Peterboro
23.8
Aston Villa
23.7
Barnet
23.6
Blackpool
23.6
Milton Keynes Dons
23.6
Wigan
23.6
Nottingham Forest
23.4
Newport County
23.2
Wolves
23.2
Bournemouth
23.2
AFC Wimbledon
23.1
Doncaster
23.1
Leyton Orient
23.1
Chelsea
23.0
Cheltenham
23.0
Cambridge
22.8
Sunderland
22.8
Tottenham
22.7
Fleetwood Town
22.7
Tranmere
22.7
Walsall
22.7
Lincoln
22.6
Shrewsbury
22.6
Southampton
22.6
Derby
22.6
Bolton
22.4
Northampton
22.4
Reading
22.4
Accrington
22.4
Swansea
22.3
West Ham
22.3
Mansfield
22.3
Chesterfield
22.1
Bromley
22.1
Leicester
22.1
Birmingham
22.1
Arsenal
22.1
Brighton
22.0
Portsmouth
22.0
Everton
21.9
Manchester United
21.9
Burton
21.9
Exeter
21.9
Oxford
21.9
Leeds
21.8
Charlton
21.7
Newcastle
21.6
Sheffield Weds
21.6
Sheffield United
21.6
Crystal Palace
21.5
Middlesbrough
21.5
Watford
21.4
Hull
21.4
Wycombe
21.3
Manchester City
21.3
Stockport
21.2
Blackburn
21.2
Port Vale
21.2
Norwich
21.2
Bristol City
21.1
Liverpool
21.0
QPR
21.0
Swindon
21.0
Millwall
21.0
Barnsley
20.9
Coventry
20.9
West Brom
20.8
Cardiff
20.7
Stoke
20.6
Burnley
20.4
Fulham
20.2
York
20.0
Preston
19.8
Brentford
19.6
Wrexham
19.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
52.0%
Under 9.5
48.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
53.5%
Under 3.5
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
67.1%
Under 21.5
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Crewe or Draw✓ Hit
78.8%
Avg Implied -
51%
28%
21%
covers Crewe + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Crewe or Accrington✓ Hit
72.5%
Avg Implied -
51%
28%
21%
covers Crewe + Accrington
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Accrington✗ Miss
48.7%
Avg Implied -
51%
28%
21%
covers Draw + Accrington
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Crewe over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
79.6%
Under
20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crewe over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
47.1%
Under
52.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crewe over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
21.3%
Under
78.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crewe over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.7%
Under
92.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Accrington over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
61.0%
Under
39.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Accrington over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
24.3%
Under
75.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Accrington over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.0%
Under
93.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Accrington over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Crewe, so a minus line means Crewe give that many goals of a start and Accrington receive them. At -1, Crewe must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Crewe win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Crewe)Actual: Accrington
Crewe -2
11.6%
Draw -2
16.1%
Accrington +2
72.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Crewe)Actual: Draw
Crewe -1
27.7%
Draw -1
23.6%
Accrington +1
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Crewe)Actual: Crewe
Crewe +1
78.8%
Draw +1
13.5%
Accrington -1
7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Crewe)Actual: Crewe
Crewe +2
92.3%
Draw +2
5.7%
Accrington -2
2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Crewe
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.60
0.73
0.73
0.47
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.60
0.60
0.73
0.73
0.47
0.47
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Accrington) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Accrington
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.57
0.56
0.50
0.36
0.64
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.80
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.52
0.52
0.67
0.33
0.38
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Crewe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Crewe over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crewe over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crewe over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Accrington over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Accrington over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Accrington over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Crewe
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.70
0.73
0.47
0.80
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.77
0.70
0.73
0.47
0.80
0.93
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Accrington) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Accrington
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.67
0.44
0.75
0.50
0.57
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.80
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.52
0.64
0.58
0.67
0.46
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Crewe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Crewe over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crewe over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crewe over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Accrington over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Accrington over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Accrington over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Crewe
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jack Lankester33%
Josh March33%
Adrien Thibaut25%
Jordan Gibson0%
Luke Offord0%
Reece Hutchinson0%
Mickey Demetriou0%
Charlie McNeill0%
Joel Tabiner0%
Matúš Holíček0%
Lewis Billington0%
Tom Booth0%
Calum Agius0%
Joshua Stephenson0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mickey Demetriou33%
Josh March33%
Jordan Gibson0%
Luke Offord0%
Jack Lankester0%
Reece Hutchinson0%
Charlie McNeill0%
Joel Tabiner0%
Matúš Holíček0%
Lewis Billington0%
Tom Booth0%
Adrien Thibaut0%
Calum Agius0%
Joshua Stephenson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lewis Billington50%
Charlie McNeill33%
Jordan Gibson0%
Luke Offord0%
Jack Lankester0%
Reece Hutchinson0%
Mickey Demetriou0%
Josh March0%
Joel Tabiner0%
Matúš Holíček0%
Tom Booth0%
Adrien Thibaut0%
Calum Agius0%
Joshua Stephenson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jordan Gibson50%
Charlie McNeill33%
Calum Agius25%
Luke Offord0%
Jack Lankester0%
Reece Hutchinson0%
Mickey Demetriou0%
Josh March0%
Joel Tabiner0%
Matúš Holíček0%
Lewis Billington0%
Tom Booth0%
Adrien Thibaut0%
Joshua Stephenson0%
Accrington
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
J. Woods50%
Stefan Mols33%
F. Rawson25%
D. Tutonda0%
Donald Love0%
Seamus Conneely0%
S. Whalley0%
C. Stockton0%
Joseph Anderson0%
Louie Moulden0%
Liam Coyle0%
Charlie Caton0%
Tom Moore0%
Devon Matthews0%
Alex Henderson0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joseph Anderson50%
J. Woods50%
Seamus Conneely33%
S. Whalley33%
Liam Coyle33%
Tom Moore33%
F. Rawson25%
Donald Love25%
D. Tutonda0%
C. Stockton0%
Louie Moulden0%
Charlie Caton0%
Stefan Mols0%
Devon Matthews0%
Alex Henderson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Stefan Mols33%
Donald Love25%
F. Rawson0%
D. Tutonda0%
Seamus Conneely0%
S. Whalley0%
C. Stockton0%
Joseph Anderson0%
Louie Moulden0%
Liam Coyle0%
Charlie Caton0%
Tom Moore0%
J. Woods0%
Devon Matthews0%
Alex Henderson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
J. Woods50%
Donald Love25%
Charlie Caton25%
Alex Henderson25%
F. Rawson0%
D. Tutonda0%
Seamus Conneely0%
S. Whalley0%
C. Stockton0%
Joseph Anderson0%
Louie Moulden0%
Liam Coyle0%
Stefan Mols0%
Tom Moore0%
Devon Matthews0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
IPS (31)
€280m
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
COV (27)
€237m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
HUL (27)
€105m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
LEI (22)
€69m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
LUT (26)
€29m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
BOL (22)
€17m
HUD (26)
€16m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
LIN (24)
€12m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
SAL (26)
€8m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
PV (23)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
CHE (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
BR (24)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BRO (19)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
Crewe's squad is €2m more valuable than Accrington's (€4m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
COV (8)
€85m
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
HUL (7)
€22m
LEI (7)
€20m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
LUT (10)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
HUD (7)
€4m
BOL (6)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
LIN (7)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BR (10)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
BUR (6)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
Crewe's attack is €1m more valuable than Accrington's (€2m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
WOL (6)
€79m
IPS (7)
€66m
SOU (5)
€53m
COV (6)
€52m
NFO (4)
€52m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
HUL (8)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
FUL (3)
€28m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
LEI (4)
€13m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
MKD (6)
€7m
BLB (7)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
POR (5)
€5m
LUT (6)
€4m
BOL (4)
€4m
HUD (6)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
LIN (4)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BRO (6)
€1m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
Crewe and Accrington have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
WHU (12)
€141m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
WOL (14)
€116m
COV (13)
€99m
IPS (13)
€85m
SOU (15)
€79m
HUL (12)
€52m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
LEI (11)
€36m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
LUT (10)
€12m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
HUD (13)
€8m
LIN (13)
€6m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
STO (11)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
PV (11)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CAM (8)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
Crewe and Accrington have a similar defence value (both €1m).
England: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Bristol Rvs
Barnet
Walsall
Oldham
York
Cheltenham
Swindon
Colchester
Tranmere
Grimsby
Fleetwood Town
Rotherham
Newport County
Exeter
Chesterfield
Crawley Town
Northampton
Rochdale
Salford
Gillingham
Shrewsbury
Port Vale