Crewe are expected to win this match, coming off a recent win against Crawley Town. The overall shape of the contest will likely be low-scoring, with an expected total of 2.6 goals. Crewe have a slight edge at home, averaging 1.38 goals scored and 0.92 conceded against similar opponents. Northampton, on the other hand, have struggled away from home, scoring an average of 0.71 goals and conceding 2.0 against similar opponents.
The most likely score is a 1-1 draw, with a probability of 12.9%. The home win percentage is 52%, the draw percentage is 27%, and the away win percentage is 21%. The model's selection is a home win. The model also suggests an Under 3.5 goals selection, with a probability of 74.6%, and an Over 1.5 goals selection, with a probability of 73.6%.
Results analysis
The win extends Crewe’s two-game winning run, a tidy 1-0 triumph over Northampton that matched the model’s prediction. The pre-match favourite was a Home win at 51 %, and the model’s call proved correct. The most likely total of 2 goals materialised, with the 1-0 score fitting the 28 % probability of that result. Every suggested selection hit: Under 7.5 at 99.5 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.2 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.5 %, Under 6.5 at 98.4 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.6 %, Under 5.5 at 95.4 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 94.9 %, and Away under 2.5 goals at 93.1 %. All eight selections settled in favour of the model’s predictions.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Crewe win✓ Hit
51.3%
Avg Implied 43.1% · @ 2.15
Edge
+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Betano
2.20
10Bet
2.18
Superbet
2.17
Draw✗ Miss
29.0%
Avg Implied 27.7% · @ 3.34
Edge
+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.50
Dafabet
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Betano
3.45
Pinnacle
3.41
Northampton win✗ Miss
19.7%
Avg Implied 29.2% · @ 3.17
Edge
-9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.40
Betfair
3.30
1xBet
3.28
Marathonbet
3.26
Dafabet
3.25
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Crewe
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.17
1.40
1.07
1.27
1.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.33
1.17
1.40
1.07
1.27
1.27
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Northampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Northampton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.90
0.93
1.57
0.56
2.19
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.86
1.00
1.50
0.60
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.74
1.91
0.92
1.58
0.55
2.27
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Crewe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
67.9%
@ 1.30-3.7%
Under 1.5
32.1%
@ 3.28+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
10Bet
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Pinnacle
1.31
Betfair
1.30
Under
Bet365
3.50
Pinnacle
3.47
Betfair
3.40
10Bet
3.30
BetVictor
3.30
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.1%
@ 1.96-7.6%
Under 2.5
59.9%
@ 1.80+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Betano
2.00
10Bet
2.00
SBO
1.98
Under
Bet365
1.85
Pinnacle
1.84
Betfair
1.80
10Bet
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.9%
@ 3.39-7.6%
Under 3.5
80.1%
@ 1.28+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.55
BetVictor
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Superbet
3.45
Pinnacle
3.45
Under
Pinnacle
1.31
Bet365
1.30
888Sport
1.29
Unibet
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
44.3%
@ 1.77-8.1%
No
55.7%
@ 1.95+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
888Sport
1.83
Betfair
1.80
Betano
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Superbet
1.78
No
Betfair
2.00
BetVictor
2.00
William Hil
2.00
1xBet
1.97
Unibet
1.96
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0 ✓
13.7%@ 6.94+7.3%
1-1
13.4%@ 5.97+6.0%
0-0
11.3%@ 8.87+6.4%
2-0
11.0%@ 9.69+6.4%
2-1
9.0%@ 8.27+3.6%
0-1
7.1%@ 8.84+2.1%
3-0
5.4%@ 18.94+3.0%
1-2
5.0%@ 10.51+0.8%
Crewe goals ↓
Northampton goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
7.1%
3.4%
0.9%
0.2%
1
14%
13%
5.0%
1.4%
0.3%
2
11%
9.0%
3.7%
1.0%
0.2%
3
5.4%
4.4%
1.8%
0.5%
0.1%
4
2.0%
1.6%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Crewe goals (down), columns = Northampton goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Salford
1.71
Grimsby
1.69
Chesterfield
1.67
Barnet
1.65
Swindon
1.63
Rotherham
1.63
Port Vale
1.62
Exeter
1.58
Oldham
1.48
Crewe
1.46
Colchester
1.43
Walsall
1.41
Northampton
1.40
Bristol Rvs
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.33
Accrington
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Cheltenham
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.07
Newport County
0.93
Tranmere
0.89
Rochdale
0.88
Crawley Town
0.87
York
0.66
Crewe is 0.06 points better than Northampton in terms of average points per game (1.46 vs 1.40).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Grimsby
1.60
Rotherham
1.52
Barnet
1.52
Swindon
1.52
Port Vale
1.52
Chesterfield
1.48
Exeter
1.48
Crewe
1.39
Colchester
1.35
Northampton
1.31
Salford
1.31
Oldham
1.30
Fleetwood Town
1.24
Bristol Rvs
1.22
Walsall
1.22
Tranmere
1.17
Cheltenham
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Newport County
1.04
Accrington
1.02
Crawley Town
0.96
Shrewsbury
0.91
Rochdale
0.82
York
0.61
Crewe is 0.08 goals better than Northampton in terms of goals scored per game (1.39 vs 1.31).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Oldham
0.96
Colchester
1.07
Rotherham
1.09
Port Vale
1.09
Grimsby
1.10
Exeter
1.12
Barnet
1.15
Salford
1.16
Chesterfield
1.19
Walsall
1.22
Accrington
1.26
Fleetwood Town
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Northampton
1.26
Swindon
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.41
Crawley Town
1.48
Shrewsbury
1.50
Gillingham
1.57
Newport County
1.67
Cheltenham
1.72
Tranmere
1.72
Rochdale
2.01
York
2.70
Crewe is 0.00 goals better than Northampton in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.26).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chesterfield
58%
Barnet
56%
Crawley Town
56%
Grimsby
55%
Colchester
54%
Swindon
52%
Salford
50%
Crewe
50%
Fleetwood Town
50%
Cheltenham
49%
Tranmere
49%
Oldham
48%
Accrington
48%
Gillingham
47%
Newport County
47%
Shrewsbury
44%
Walsall
41%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Crewe
For 5.4 · Against 4.1 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 12.0 · Total 23.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Northampton
For 4.5 · Against 5.3 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 10.2 · Total 22.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Crewe
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
8.9
9.9
3.9
3.5
4.2
25.6
27.7
23.6
vs Stronger (1)
9.0
-
9.0
2.0
-
2.0
27.0
-
27.0
vs Similar (49)
9.4
8.9
9.9
3.9
3.5
4.3
25.6
27.7
23.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
57%
50%
64%
50%
44%
56%
76%
88%
64%
% under line
43%
50%
36%
50%
56%
44%
24%
12%
36%
This opponent (Northampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Northampton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
9.4
10.9
3.4
3.9
2.9
21.9
22.0
21.8
vs Stronger (12)
11.4
11.7
11.2
4.0
4.5
3.5
22.4
23.8
21.0
vs Similar (38)
9.8
8.7
10.8
3.2
3.7
2.7
21.7
21.4
22.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
63%
56%
71%
44%
56%
32%
55%
60%
50%
% under line
37%
44%
29%
56%
44%
68%
45%
40%
50%
This opponent (Crewe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Crawley Town
12.1
Rochdale
11.3
Swindon
11.2
York
11.0
Port Vale
10.6
Grimsby
10.5
Walsall
10.4
Chesterfield
10.4
Exeter
10.2
Northampton
10.1
Barnet
10.1
Fleetwood Town
10.1
Tranmere
10.0
Oldham
9.9
Salford
9.8
Accrington
9.7
Cheltenham
9.7
Rotherham
9.6
Newport County
9.6
Gillingham
9.6
Bristol Rvs
9.4
Crewe
9.4
Colchester
9.3
Shrewsbury
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.5
Shrewsbury
4.3
Crawley Town
4.3
Colchester
4.1
Chesterfield
4.1
Rotherham
4.1
Oldham
4.0
Accrington
4.0
Gillingham
3.9
York
3.9
Crewe
3.9
Newport County
3.9
Fleetwood Town
3.8
Tranmere
3.8
Grimsby
3.8
Salford
3.7
Walsall
3.7
Cheltenham
3.7
Barnet
3.6
Port Vale
3.5
Northampton
3.5
Swindon
3.4
Exeter
3.4
Rochdale
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Crewe
25.5
Crawley Town
25.4
Oldham
25.1
Colchester
24.8
Salford
24.6
Bristol Rvs
24.0
Gillingham
23.9
Barnet
23.8
Rotherham
23.7
Grimsby
23.6
Newport County
23.4
Rochdale
23.3
Fleetwood Town
23.0
Shrewsbury
22.7
Tranmere
22.6
Cheltenham
22.5
Walsall
22.4
Accrington
22.4
Chesterfield
22.1
Northampton
21.9
Exeter
21.9
Port Vale
21.5
Swindon
20.7
York
19.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
52.0%
@ 1.61-5.3%
Under 9.5
48.0%
@ 2.16+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.66
Betano
1.62
Pinnacle
1.62
1xBet
1.60
Unibet
1.58
Under
Betano
2.20
Pinnacle
2.20
Marathonbet
2.18
Unibet
2.16
1xBet
2.13
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
46.3%
Under 3.5
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
69.7%
Under 21.5
30.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Crewe or Draw✓ Hit
79.5%
Avg Implied 70.5% · @ 1.32
Edge
+8.9%
51%
29%
20%
covers Crewe + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.35
888Sport
1.33
William Hil
1.33
Crewe or Northampton✓ Hit
72.8%
Avg Implied 72.8% · @ 1.28
Edge
+0.1%
51%
29%
20%
covers Crewe + Northampton
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
1.30
William Hil
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Bet365
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Draw or Northampton✗ Miss
47.7%
Avg Implied 56.7% · @ 1.65
Edge
-9.0%
51%
29%
20%
covers Draw + Northampton
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.70
William Hil
1.67
Betfair
1.67
Bet365
1.67
888Sport
1.67
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Crewe over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
80.2%
@ 1.24+5.3%
Under
19.8%
@ 3.71-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
888Sport
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
4.04
Betfair
4.00
BetVictor
3.80
Bet365
3.75
1xBet
3.74
Crewe over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
48.2%
@ 2.18+5.5%
Under
51.8%
@ 1.63-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.25
Pinnacle
2.21
10Bet
2.20
Superbet
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Under
Pinnacle
1.67
1xBet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.65
Unibet
1.63
Superbet
1.62
Crewe over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
22.2%
@ 4.79+2.8%
Under
77.8%
@ 1.15-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.20
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
5.00
BetVictor
4.80
888Sport
4.80
Under
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Unibet
1.16
888Sport
1.15
Crewe over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
8.2%
@ 11.50-0.1%
Under
91.8%
@ 1.03+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
13.00
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
11.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
888Sport
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Northampton over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
60.7%
@ 1.38-6.3%
Under
39.3%
@ 2.81+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Marathonbet
1.38
Under
Pinnacle
2.94
BetVictor
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.80
888Sport
2.80
Northampton over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
24.0%
@ 2.88-8.2%
Under
76.0%
@ 1.37+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.01
Bet365
3.00
Superbet
2.90
Marathonbet
2.89
1xBet
2.89
Under
Betano
1.40
Unibet
1.38
Superbet
1.38
1xBet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.37
Northampton over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
6.9%
@ 7.20-6.1%
Under
93.1%
@ 1.07+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
888Sport
7.50
Marathonbet
7.10
1xBet
7.10
Under
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
888Sport
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Northampton over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 19.31-3.5%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.01+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
23.00
888Sport
23.00
Superbet
20.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Crewe, so a minus line means Crewe give that many goals of a start and Northampton receive them. At -1, Crewe must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Crewe win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Crewe)Actual: Northampton
Crewe -2
12.2%
@ 8.88+2.1%
Draw -2
16.4%
@ 6.03+1.6%
Northampton +2
71.4%
@ 1.19-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
9.50
Unibet
8.50
Superbet
8.40
Marathonbet
8.00
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
6.00
Superbet
5.90
Unibet
5.75
Away
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Handicap -1 (Crewe)Actual: Draw
Crewe -1
28.6%
@ 4.05+6.5%
Draw -1
23.7%
@ 3.74-0.3%
Northampton +1
47.7%
@ 1.66-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.20
10Bet
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Unibet
3.90
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
3.75
Superbet
3.75
10Bet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.64
Away
Betfair
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Superbet
1.66
Unibet
1.65
10Bet
1.65
Handicap +1 (Crewe)Actual: Crewe
Crewe +1
79.5%
@ 1.32+11.8%
Draw +1
13.2%
@ 4.72-5.8%
Northampton -1
7.4%
@ 6.71-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.70
Superbet
4.65
10Bet
4.50
Away
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.60
Unibet
6.50
Superbet
6.40
Handicap +2 (Crewe)Actual: Crewe
Crewe +2
92.6%
@ 1.07+7.5%
Draw +2
5.5%
@ 9.43-4.2%
Northampton -2
1.9%
@ 17.67-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.06
Draw
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
10.00
Superbet
8.30
Away
Betfair
19.00
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
15.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Crewe
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.53
0.73
0.60
0.47
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.60
0.53
0.73
0.60
0.47
0.47
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Northampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Northampton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.97
0.50
0.79
0.31
1.12
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
1.14
1.00
1.00
0.40
1.20
vs Similar (23)
0.35
0.91
0.42
0.75
0.27
1.09
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Crewe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
69.1%
@ 1.39+2.3%
Under 0.5
30.9%
@ 2.79-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Superbet
1.42
BetVictor
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
Under
Pinnacle
2.97
Betfair
2.88
William Hil
2.88
Unibet
2.80
10Bet
2.80
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
35.4%
@ 2.82+2.5%
Under 1.5
64.6%
@ 1.38-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.00
Pinnacle
2.95
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.87
10Bet
2.80
Under
Bet365
1.40
William Hil
1.40
BetVictor
1.39
Pinnacle
1.39
Betano
1.38
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.7%
@ 7.24-1.2%
Under 2.5
88.3%
@ 1.07+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
BetVictor
8.00
Betfair
7.50
William Hil
7.50
Superbet
7.10
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Betfair
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Crewe over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
58.3%
@ 1.94+10.6%
Under
41.7%
@ 1.77-10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.05
Superbet
1.97
Pinnacle
1.96
10Bet
1.95
1xBet
1.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.83
Unibet
1.79
Marathonbet
1.78
1xBet
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Crewe over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
23.8%
@ 5.81+7.8%
Under
76.2%
@ 1.10-7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.85
Marathonbet
5.85
Superbet
5.80
Betano
5.80
10Bet
5.75
Under
Betano
1.12
1xBet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Crewe over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.1%
@ 16.58-0.7%
Under
94.9%
@ 1.01+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
19.00
10Bet
19.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Northampton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
35.0%
@ 2.30-5.2%
Under
65.0%
@ 1.55+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.42
Betano
2.35
Superbet
2.32
1xBet
2.28
Marathonbet
2.28
Under
10Bet
1.57
Unibet
1.56
Pinnacle
1.56
Betano
1.55
Marathonbet
1.54
Northampton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.0%
@ 7.76-5.0%
Under
93.0%
@ 1.05+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.20
1xBet
8.20
Superbet
7.80
10Bet
7.50
Betano
7.10
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Northampton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.8%
@ 30.00-99.2%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
30.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Crewe
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.63
0.67
0.47
0.80
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.73
0.63
0.67
0.47
0.80
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Northampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Northampton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.93
0.43
0.79
0.25
1.06
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
0.71
0.00
0.50
0.20
0.80
vs Similar (23)
0.39
1.00
0.50
0.83
0.27
1.18
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Crewe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.8%
Under 0.5
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
44.0%
Under 1.5
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
23.1%
Under 2.5
76.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Crewe over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
62.6%
Under
37.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crewe over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
27.2%
Under
72.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crewe over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
9.2%
Under
90.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Northampton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
40.1%
Under
59.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Northampton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
10.9%
Under
89.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Northampton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.4%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.03
1xBet
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
94.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
93.1%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
888Sport
1.08
10Bet
1.07
+6.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.0%
1.05
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
92.6%
1.07
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.06
-
-
+7.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
91.8%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
888Sport
1.03
Superbet
1.03
-
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
88.4%
1.09
Pinnacle
1.11
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
888Sport
1.10
Betfair
1.10
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.3%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Betfair
1.06
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
80.2%
1.24
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
888Sport
1.25
10Bet
1.25
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
80.1%
1.28
Pinnacle
1.31
Bet365
1.30
888Sport
1.29
Unibet
1.29
Betfair
1.29
+7.6%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
79.5%
1.32
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.35
888Sport
1.33
William Hil
1.33
+8.9%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
79.5%
1.32
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
+11.8%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
77.8%
1.15
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Unibet
1.16
888Sport
1.15
-2.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
76.2%
1.10
Betano
1.12
1xBet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
-7.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
76.0%
1.37
Betano
1.40
Unibet
1.38
Superbet
1.38
1xBet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.37
+8.2%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
72.8%
1.28
BetVictor
1.30
William Hil
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Bet365
1.30
1xBet
1.29
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
71.6%
1.45
Unibet
1.47
Superbet
1.47
Betano
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
1xBet
1.42
+8.1%
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
71.4%
1.19
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
-3.8%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Crewe
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jack Lankester33%
Josh March33%
Adrien Thibaut25%
Jordan Gibson0%
Luke Offord0%
Reece Hutchinson0%
Mickey Demetriou0%
Charlie McNeill0%
Joel Tabiner0%
Matúš Holíček0%
Lewis Billington0%
Tom Booth0%
Calum Agius0%
Joshua Stephenson0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mickey Demetriou33%
Josh March33%
Jordan Gibson0%
Luke Offord0%
Jack Lankester0%
Reece Hutchinson0%
Charlie McNeill0%
Joel Tabiner0%
Matúš Holíček0%
Lewis Billington0%
Tom Booth0%
Adrien Thibaut0%
Calum Agius0%
Joshua Stephenson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lewis Billington50%
Charlie McNeill33%
Jordan Gibson0%
Luke Offord0%
Jack Lankester0%
Reece Hutchinson0%
Mickey Demetriou0%
Josh March0%
Joel Tabiner0%
Matúš Holíček0%
Tom Booth0%
Adrien Thibaut0%
Calum Agius0%
Joshua Stephenson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jordan Gibson50%
Charlie McNeill33%
Calum Agius25%
Luke Offord0%
Jack Lankester0%
Reece Hutchinson0%
Mickey Demetriou0%
Josh March0%
Joel Tabiner0%
Matúš Holíček0%
Lewis Billington0%
Tom Booth0%
Adrien Thibaut0%
Joshua Stephenson0%
Northampton
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Logan Briggs33%
E. Moore0%
S. Hoskins0%
L. Evans0%
Janoi Donacien0%
Jon Guthrie0%
Connor Lemonheigh-Evans0%
H. Saunders0%
J. Maxwell0%
Z. Jeacock0%
Tyrese Fornah0%
J. Wormleighton0%
Joe O'Brien Whitmarsh 0%
Matty Warhurst0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
H. Saunders33%
Logan Briggs33%
L. Evans25%
J. Maxwell25%
Tyrese Fornah25%
E. Moore0%
S. Hoskins0%
Janoi Donacien0%
Jon Guthrie0%
Connor Lemonheigh-Evans0%
Z. Jeacock0%
J. Wormleighton0%
Joe O'Brien Whitmarsh 0%
Matty Warhurst0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Joe O'Brien Whitmarsh 33%
E. Moore0%
S. Hoskins0%
L. Evans0%
Janoi Donacien0%
Jon Guthrie0%
Connor Lemonheigh-Evans0%
H. Saunders0%
J. Maxwell0%
Z. Jeacock0%
Tyrese Fornah0%
J. Wormleighton0%
Logan Briggs0%
Matty Warhurst0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
S. Hoskins25%
E. Moore0%
L. Evans0%
Janoi Donacien0%
Jon Guthrie0%
Connor Lemonheigh-Evans0%
H. Saunders0%
J. Maxwell0%
Z. Jeacock0%
Tyrese Fornah0%
J. Wormleighton0%
Joe O'Brien Whitmarsh 0%
Logan Briggs0%
Matty Warhurst0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAL (26)
€8m
PV (23)
€7m
CHE (24)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
Crewe's squad is €1m more valuable than Northampton's (€4m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
Crewe's attack is €1m more valuable than Northampton's (€2m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
Crewe and Northampton have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
Crewe and Northampton have a similar defence value (both €1m).
England: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Bristol Rvs
Barnet
Walsall
Oldham
York
Cheltenham
Swindon
Colchester
Tranmere
Grimsby
Fleetwood Town
Rotherham
Newport County
Exeter
Chesterfield
Crawley Town
Rochdale
Salford
Gillingham
Shrewsbury
Accrington
Port Vale