This opponent (Port Vale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Port Vale
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.97
1.33
0.87
1.00
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.28
1.16
1.58
1.08
1.00
1.23
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.00
0.33
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Crewe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
70.4%
Under 1.5
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
43.0%
@ 2.31+2.4%
Under 2.5
57.0%
@ 1.58-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.1%
Under 3.5
77.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.1%
No
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
0-0
10.4%
0-1 ✓
9.9%
1-0
9.3%
1-2
8.0%
2-1
7.6%
0-2
6.9%
2-0
6.2%
Crewe goals ↓
Port Vale goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
9.9%
6.9%
2.8%
0.9%
1
9.3%
14%
8.0%
3.3%
1.0%
2
6.2%
7.6%
4.7%
1.9%
0.6%
3
2.4%
3.0%
1.8%
0.8%
0.2%
4
0.7%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Crewe goals (down), columns = Port Vale goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Doncaster
1.83
Port Vale
1.74
Bradford
1.70
Walsall
1.67
AFC Wimbledon
1.59
Notts County
1.57
Chesterfield
1.52
Salford
1.50
Grimsby
1.48
Colchester
1.46
Bromley
1.43
Swindon
1.35
Crewe
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.30
Cheltenham
1.30
Barrow
1.28
Gillingham
1.26
Harrogate
1.15
Milton Keynes Dons
1.13
Tranmere
1.11
Accrington
1.09
Newport County
1.07
Carlisle
0.91
Morecambe
0.78
Crewe is 0.39 points worse than Port Vale in terms of average points per game (1.35 vs 1.74).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Walsall
1.63
Doncaster
1.59
Chesterfield
1.59
Swindon
1.54
Notts County
1.48
Port Vale
1.41
Bromley
1.39
Bradford
1.39
Salford
1.39
Grimsby
1.33
Fleetwood Town
1.30
Cheltenham
1.30
AFC Wimbledon
1.22
Accrington
1.15
Colchester
1.13
Milton Keynes Dons
1.13
Newport County
1.13
Barrow
1.13
Crewe
1.07
Tranmere
0.98
Carlisle
0.96
Harrogate
0.93
Gillingham
0.89
Morecambe
0.87
Crewe is 0.35 goals worse than Port Vale in terms of goals scored per game (1.07 vs 1.41).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
AFC Wimbledon
0.76
Bradford
0.98
Port Vale
1.00
Gillingham
1.00
Colchester
1.02
Crewe
1.04
Notts County
1.07
Doncaster
1.09
Barrow
1.09
Walsall
1.17
Salford
1.17
Chesterfield
1.17
Bromley
1.28
Fleetwood Town
1.30
Harrogate
1.33
Swindon
1.37
Tranmere
1.41
Milton Keynes Dons
1.43
Grimsby
1.46
Accrington
1.50
Cheltenham
1.52
Carlisle
1.54
Morecambe
1.57
Newport County
1.65
Crewe is 0.04 goals worse than Port Vale in terms of goals conceded per game (1.04 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Notts County
62%
Chesterfield
61%
Milton Keynes Dons
60%
Carlisle
53%
Swindon
52%
Salford
52%
Doncaster
52%
Tranmere
52%
Colchester
51%
Port Vale
51%
Bradford
51%
Crewe
50%
AFC Wimbledon
49%
Gillingham
49%
Grimsby
49%
Fleetwood Town
47%
Barrow
47%
Newport County
47%
Cheltenham
45%
Morecambe
45%
Accrington
45%
Walsall
44%
Harrogate
43%
Bromley
42%
Crewe is 0.5 percentage points worse than Port Vale in terms of average possession (50% vs 51%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Crewe
For 4.8 · Against 5.1 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.3 · Against 13.1 · Total 21.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Port Vale
For 4.6 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 1.5 · Total 2.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.7 · Against 10.5 · Total 20.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Crewe
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
10.7
9.0
4.1
4.2
4.0
23.2
23.7
22.8
vs Stronger (2)
9.0
9.0
-
2.5
2.5
-
20.0
20.0
-
vs Similar (41)
9.8
10.9
8.9
4.0
4.1
4.0
23.1
23.4
22.9
vs Weaker (7)
10.0
10.5
9.3
4.9
5.5
4.0
24.4
25.8
22.7
% over line
44%
48%
40%
60%
54%
65%
60%
61%
60%
% under line
56%
52%
60%
40%
46%
35%
40%
39%
40%
This opponent (Port Vale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Port Vale
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.3
9.8
3.5
3.6
3.4
21.8
22.1
21.4
vs Stronger (1)
9.0
-
9.0
4.0
-
4.0
23.0
-
23.0
vs Similar (44)
10.0
10.3
9.7
3.5
3.5
3.5
21.9
22.3
21.5
vs Weaker (5)
10.6
10.0
11.5
3.6
4.3
2.5
20.2
20.7
19.5
% over line
52%
50%
54%
52%
52%
52%
54%
58%
50%
% under line
48%
50%
46%
48%
48%
48%
46%
42%
50%
This opponent (Crewe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Harrogate
10.9
Morecambe
10.8
Doncaster
10.7
Bromley
10.4
Swindon
10.2
Port Vale
10.2
Notts County
10.1
Carlisle
10.1
Chesterfield
10.1
Newport County
10.1
Fleetwood Town
10.1
Tranmere
10.0
Walsall
9.9
Crewe
9.9
Barrow
9.7
Cheltenham
9.6
Grimsby
9.5
Bradford
9.5
Colchester
9.4
Accrington
9.1
Salford
9.1
AFC Wimbledon
9.0
Milton Keynes Dons
8.7
Gillingham
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Accrington
4.6
Salford
4.6
Bradford
4.5
Gillingham
4.4
Colchester
4.4
Chesterfield
4.3
AFC Wimbledon
4.3
Tranmere
4.3
Grimsby
4.3
Carlisle
4.2
Crewe
4.2
Notts County
4.2
Doncaster
4.2
Barrow
4.1
Morecambe
4.0
Milton Keynes Dons
3.9
Newport County
3.8
Fleetwood Town
3.8
Bromley
3.8
Walsall
3.7
Cheltenham
3.6
Port Vale
3.6
Swindon
3.3
Harrogate
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Accrington
25.5
Grimsby
25.1
Salford
24.8
Morecambe
24.5
Cheltenham
24.5
Colchester
24.4
Bradford
24.1
Doncaster
23.9
Milton Keynes Dons
23.7
Gillingham
23.4
AFC Wimbledon
23.3
Crewe
23.2
Newport County
23.1
Chesterfield
22.6
Carlisle
22.3
Fleetwood Town
22.2
Tranmere
22.2
Barrow
22.1
Port Vale
21.7
Harrogate
21.6
Walsall
21.4
Bromley
21.1
Notts County
21.0
Swindon
20.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
36.2%
Under 9.5
63.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
46.0%
Under 3.5
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
47.4%
Under 21.5
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Crewe
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.53
0.71
0.71
0.12
0.38
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.42
0.54
0.75
0.75
0.14
0.36
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Port Vale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Port Vale
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.37
0.60
0.33
0.40
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.60
0.44
0.75
0.42
0.46
0.46
vs Weaker (5)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Crewe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Crewe over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crewe over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crewe over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Port Vale over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Port Vale over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Port Vale over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Crewe
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.47
0.71
0.50
0.81
0.44
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.73
0.46
0.67
0.42
0.79
0.50
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.33
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Port Vale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Port Vale
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.60
0.73
0.53
0.60
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.68
0.72
0.83
0.67
0.54
0.77
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.00
0.33
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Crewe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Crewe over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crewe over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crewe over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Port Vale over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Port Vale over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Port Vale over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Crewe · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jack Lankester33%
Josh March33%
Adrien Thibaut25%
Jordan Gibson0%
Luke Offord0%
Reece Hutchinson0%
Mickey Demetriou0%
Charlie McNeill0%
Joel Tabiner0%
Matúš Holíček0%
Lewis Billington0%
Tom Booth0%
Calum Agius0%
Joshua Stephenson0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mickey Demetriou33%
Josh March33%
Jordan Gibson0%
Luke Offord0%
Jack Lankester0%
Reece Hutchinson0%
Charlie McNeill0%
Joel Tabiner0%
Matúš Holíček0%
Lewis Billington0%
Tom Booth0%
Adrien Thibaut0%
Calum Agius0%
Joshua Stephenson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lewis Billington50%
Charlie McNeill33%
Jordan Gibson0%
Luke Offord0%
Jack Lankester0%
Reece Hutchinson0%
Mickey Demetriou0%
Josh March0%
Joel Tabiner0%
Matúš Holíček0%
Tom Booth0%
Adrien Thibaut0%
Calum Agius0%
Joshua Stephenson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jordan Gibson50%
Charlie McNeill33%
Calum Agius25%
Luke Offord0%
Jack Lankester0%
Reece Hutchinson0%
Mickey Demetriou0%
Josh March0%
Joel Tabiner0%
Matúš Holíček0%
Lewis Billington0%
Tom Booth0%
Adrien Thibaut0%
Joshua Stephenson0%
Port Vale · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Cameron Humphreys0%
Ben Waine0%
Liam Gordon0%
Onel Hernández0%
Kyle Dempsey0%
Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel0%
Jackson Smith0%
Rhys Walters0%
Oliver Lynch0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kyle Dempsey33%
Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel33%
Cameron Humphreys0%
Ben Waine0%
Liam Gordon0%
Onel Hernández0%
Jackson Smith0%
Rhys Walters0%
Oliver Lynch0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Cameron Humphreys0%
Ben Waine0%
Liam Gordon0%
Onel Hernández0%
Kyle Dempsey0%
Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel0%
Jackson Smith0%
Rhys Walters0%
Oliver Lynch0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cameron Humphreys0%
Ben Waine0%
Liam Gordon0%
Onel Hernández0%
Kyle Dempsey0%
Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel0%
Jackson Smith0%
Rhys Walters0%
Oliver Lynch0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MKD (24)
€15m
SAL (26)
€8m
BRA (21)
€7m
PV (23)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
NC (24)
€6m
CHE (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BRO (19)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
CAR (1)
€0m
MOR (1)
€0m
Crewe's squad is €3m less valuable than Port Vale's (€4m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MKD (8)
€5m
BRA (9)
€3m
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Crewe and Port Vale have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MKD (6)
€7m
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
BRO (6)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
BAR (5)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
MOR (1)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
Crewe and Port Vale have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Crewe's defence is €2m less valuable than Port Vale's (€1m vs €3m).
England: League Two 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
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Doncaster
Bradford
Walsall
AFC Wimbledon
Notts County
Chesterfield
Salford
Grimsby
Colchester
Bromley
Swindon
Fleetwood Town
Cheltenham
Barrow
Gillingham
Harrogate
Milton Keynes Dons
Tranmere
Accrington
Newport County
Carlisle
Morecambe