Croatia Zmijavci are the clear favourites to win against Orijent 1919, with a 49% chance of triumph, 26% for a draw and 24% for an away win. The model projects an average of 2.8 goals, but the most likely total is two goals, at a 25% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.6% chance. Home side Croatia Zmijavci, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, average 1.5 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded. Orijent 1919, on the road, also averages 1.5 goals scored but concedes 1.92 against comparable teams. The model’s selection includes an Over 1.5 with a 78.2% probability, a hit result. Croatia Zmijavci have been on a four-game winning run, last beating Dubrava Zagreb 2-1, while Orijent 1919 come off a 3-0 win over Dinamo Zagreb U21. The match is expected to be a tight contest, with the home side holding the edge.
Results analysis
The win extends Croatia Zmijavci’s four-game winning run, while Orijent 1919 comes off a victory. The model’s favourite was a home win with a 49% probability, and it proved correct as Croatia Zmijavci triumphed 6-2. The predicted most likely total of 2 goals fell short of the 8-goal outburst, but the single suggested pick, Over 1.5 with a 78.2% chance, hit. Each selection is settled: the over 1.5 was a hit. The final score of 6-2 confirms the home side’s dominance, and the model’s call was right.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Croatia Zmijavci win✓ Hit
49.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 win✗ Miss
24.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Croatia Zmijavci
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.27
1.54
0.77
0.65
1.65
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
1.67
1.67
1.67
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.92
1.20
1.50
0.50
0.53
1.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.50
-
-
1.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Orijent 1919) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Orijent 1919
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.43
1.69
1.12
1.29
1.79
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.72
1.60
1.92
1.31
1.50
1.92
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Croatia Zmijavci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.2%
Under 1.5
21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.2%
Under 2.5
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
31.0%
Under 3.5
69.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.1%
No
43.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%
2-1
9.6%
1-0
9.0%
2-0
8.5%
0-0
7.2%
1-2
6.4%
0-1
5.7%
2-2
5.4%
Croatia Zmijavci goals ↓
Orijent 1919 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.2%
5.7%
3.8%
1.4%
0.4%
1
9.0%
13%
6.4%
2.4%
0.7%
2
8.5%
9.6%
5.4%
2.0%
0.6%
3
4.8%
5.4%
3.0%
1.1%
0.3%
4
2.0%
2.3%
1.3%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Croatia Zmijavci goals (down), columns = Orijent 1919 goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sibenik
2.48
Zrinski Jurjevac
2.45
Vukovar
1.76
Sesvete
1.27
Jarun
1.21
Dubrava Zagreb
1.15
HNK Cibalia
1.12
Dugopolje
1.12
Orijent 1919
1.11
Croatia Zmijavci
1.09
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.03
Solin
0.73
Kustosija
0.00
Croatia Zmijavci is 0.02 points worse than Orijent 1919 in terms of average points per game (1.09 vs 1.11).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sibenik
2.06
Vukovar
1.70
Zrinski Jurjevac
1.61
Croatia Zmijavci
1.18
Dugopolje
1.15
HNK Cibalia
1.12
Sesvete
1.09
Dubrava Zagreb
1.09
Orijent 1919
1.09
Jarun
1.06
Solin
1.00
Kustosija
1.00
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.91
Croatia Zmijavci is 0.10 goals better than Orijent 1919 in terms of goals scored per game (1.18 vs 1.09).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sibenik
0.55
Zrinski Jurjevac
0.55
Vukovar
1.09
Sesvete
1.24
Dubrava Zagreb
1.33
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.33
Dugopolje
1.36
Jarun
1.39
Orijent 1919
1.43
Croatia Zmijavci
1.45
Solin
1.52
HNK Cibalia
1.73
Kustosija
2.00
Croatia Zmijavci is 0.03 goals worse than Orijent 1919 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.45 vs 1.43).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Croatia Zmijavci
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.60
0.62
0.46
0.41
0.71
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.00
0.67
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.44
0.56
0.60
0.30
0.33
0.73
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
-
-
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Orijent 1919) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Orijent 1919
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.70
0.44
0.75
0.50
0.64
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.56
0.76
0.54
0.85
0.58
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Croatia Zmijavci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Croatia Zmijavci over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Croatia Zmijavci over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Croatia Zmijavci over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Croatia Zmijavci
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.67
0.92
0.31
0.24
0.94
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.67
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.48
0.64
0.90
0.20
0.20
0.93
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
-
-
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Orijent 1919) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Orijent 1919
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.73
1.25
0.38
0.79
1.14
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
1.16
0.84
1.38
0.46
0.92
1.25
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Croatia Zmijavci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Croatia Zmijavci over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Croatia Zmijavci over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Croatia Zmijavci over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (22)
€3m
VUK (13)
€2m
DUG (22)
€2m
BBB (18)
€2m
DZ (15)
€2m
O1 (19)
€2m
KUS (12)
€2m
CZ (14)
€2m
HC (19)
€2m
Croatia Zmijavci and Orijent 1919 have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VUK (6)
€1m
O1 (4)
€1m
SES (7)
€1m
DUG (10)
€1m
BBB (7)
€1m
CZ (7)
€1m
KUS (3)
€1m
HC (6)
€0m
DZ (4)
€0m
Croatia Zmijavci and Orijent 1919 have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (4)
€1m
DZ (3)
€1m
DUG (4)
€1m
HC (6)
€0m
BBB (2)
€0m
KUS (2)
€0m
VUK (2)
€0m
CZ (2)
€0m
O1 (2)
€0m
Croatia Zmijavci and Orijent 1919 have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (11)
€2m
O1 (13)
€1m
DZ (8)
€1m
KUS (7)
€1m
BBB (9)
€1m
VUK (5)
€1m
DUG (8)
€1m
CZ (5)
€1m
HC (7)
€1m
Croatia Zmijavci and Orijent 1919 have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Croatia: First NL 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: First NL stats & trends →