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Croatia Zmijavci vs Orijent 1919 Result & Analysis

Date: 22/10/2023
Time: 13:00
Final 6-2
Croatia Zmijavci
Croatia Zmijavci
Vs
49%
26%
24%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Orijent 1919
Orijent 1919
Croatia: First NL
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Croatia Zmijavci are the clear favourites to win against Orijent 1919, with a 49% chance of triumph, 26% for a draw and 24% for an away win. The model projects an average of 2.8 goals, but the most likely total is two goals, at a 25% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.6% chance. Home side Croatia Zmijavci, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, average 1.5 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded. Orijent 1919, on the road, also averages 1.5 goals scored but concedes 1.92 against comparable teams. The model’s selection includes an Over 1.5 with a 78.2% probability, a hit result. Croatia Zmijavci have been on a four-game winning run, last beating Dubrava Zagreb 2-1, while Orijent 1919 come off a 3-0 win over Dinamo Zagreb U21. The match is expected to be a tight contest, with the home side holding the edge.

Results analysis

The win extends Croatia Zmijavci’s four-game winning run, while Orijent 1919 comes off a victory. The model’s favourite was a home win with a 49% probability, and it proved correct as Croatia Zmijavci triumphed 6-2. The predicted most likely total of 2 goals fell short of the 8-goal outburst, but the single suggested pick, Over 1.5 with a 78.2% chance, hit. Each selection is settled: the over 1.5 was a hit. The final score of 6-2 confirms the home side’s dominance, and the model’s call was right.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Croatia Zmijavci win✓ Hit
49.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 win✗ Miss
24.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Croatia ZmijavciCroatia Zmijavci

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L00D11D00D12L25L22D00D00D04LA·HNK12/08H·SES20/08A·DUG25/08A·BSK02/09H·DUB10/09A·JAR16/09H·VUK24/09A·SOL30/09H·SIB08/10A·ZRI14/10
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.031.271.540.770.651.65
vs Stronger (3)1.671.671.671.67--
vs Similar (25)0.921.201.500.500.531.67
vs Weaker (2)1.501.50--1.501.50
Clean sheet %40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Orijent 1919) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Orijent 1919Orijent 1919

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D24L01L14L54W21W10W03L11D12LH·DUB12/08A·JAR21/08H·VUK26/08A·SOL02/09H·SIB09/09A·ZRI15/09H·BSK23/09H·HNK30/09A·SES06/10H·DUG15/10
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.431.691.121.291.79
vs Stronger (3)0.001.000.000.500.002.00
vs Similar (25)1.721.601.921.311.501.92
vs Weaker (2)1.000.002.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Croatia Zmijavci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%19%25%7%015%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.2%
Under 1.5
21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.2%
Under 2.5
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
31.0%
Under 3.5
69.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.1%
No
43.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%
2-1
9.6%
1-0
9.0%
2-0
8.5%
0-0
7.2%
1-2
6.4%
0-1
5.7%
2-2
5.4%
Croatia Zmijavci goals ↓
Orijent 1919 goals →
01234
07.2%5.7%3.8%1.4%0.4%
19.0%13%6.4%2.4%0.7%
28.5%9.6%5.4%2.0%0.6%
34.8%5.4%3.0%1.1%0.3%
42.0%2.3%1.3%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Croatia Zmijavci goals (down), columns = Orijent 1919 goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Sibenik
2.48
Zrinski Jurjevac
2.45
Vukovar
1.76
Sesvete
1.27
Jarun
1.21
Dubrava Zagreb
1.15
HNK Cibalia
1.12
Dugopolje
1.12
Orijent 1919
1.11
Croatia Zmijavci
1.09
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.03
Solin
0.73
Kustosija
0.00
Croatia Zmijavci is 0.02 points worse than Orijent 1919 in terms of average points per game (1.09 vs 1.11).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sibenik
2.06
Vukovar
1.70
Zrinski Jurjevac
1.61
Croatia Zmijavci
1.18
Dugopolje
1.15
HNK Cibalia
1.12
Sesvete
1.09
Dubrava Zagreb
1.09
Orijent 1919
1.09
Jarun
1.06
Solin
1.00
Kustosija
1.00
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.91
Croatia Zmijavci is 0.10 goals better than Orijent 1919 in terms of goals scored per game (1.18 vs 1.09).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sibenik
0.55
Zrinski Jurjevac
0.55
Vukovar
1.09
Sesvete
1.24
Dubrava Zagreb
1.33
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.33
Dugopolje
1.36
Jarun
1.39
Orijent 1919
1.43
Croatia Zmijavci
1.45
Solin
1.52
HNK Cibalia
1.73
Kustosija
2.00
Croatia Zmijavci is 0.03 goals worse than Orijent 1919 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.45 vs 1.43).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Croatia ZmijavciCroatia Zmijavci

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D10W00D00D21W11D00D00D03LA·HNK12/08H·SES20/08A·DUG25/08A·BSK02/09H·DUB10/09A·JAR16/09H·VUK24/09A·SOL30/09H·SIB08/10A·ZRI14/10
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.600.620.460.410.71
vs Stronger (3)0.671.000.671.00--
vs Similar (25)0.440.560.600.300.330.73
vs Weaker (2)1.000.50--1.000.50
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Orijent 1919) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Orijent 1919Orijent 1919

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D11D01L11D13L00D00D01L11D11DH·DUB12/08A·JAR21/08H·VUK26/08A·SOL02/09H·SIB09/09A·ZRI15/09H·BSK23/09H·HNK30/09A·SES06/10H·DUG15/10
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.700.440.750.500.64
vs Stronger (3)0.000.670.000.500.001.00
vs Similar (25)0.560.760.540.850.580.67
vs Weaker (2)0.000.000.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Croatia Zmijavci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Croatia Zmijavci over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Croatia Zmijavci over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Croatia Zmijavci over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Croatia ZmijavciCroatia Zmijavci

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D00D01L00D12L04L11D00D00D01LA·HNK12/08H·SES20/08A·DUG25/08A·BSK02/09H·DUB10/09A·JAR16/09H·VUK24/09A·SOL30/09H·SIB08/10A·ZRI14/10
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.670.920.310.240.94
vs Stronger (3)1.000.671.000.67--
vs Similar (25)0.480.640.900.200.200.93
vs Weaker (2)0.501.00--0.501.00
Clean sheet %60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Orijent 1919) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Orijent 1919Orijent 1919

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D13L00D03L41W21W10W02L00D01LH·DUB12/08A·JAR21/08H·VUK26/08A·SOL02/09H·SIB09/09A·ZRI15/09H·BSK23/09H·HNK30/09A·SES06/10H·DUG15/10
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.731.250.380.791.14
vs Stronger (3)0.000.330.000.000.001.00
vs Similar (25)1.160.841.380.460.921.25
vs Weaker (2)1.000.002.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Croatia Zmijavci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Croatia Zmijavci over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Croatia Zmijavci over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Croatia Zmijavci over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.578.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (22)
€3m
VUK (13)
€2m
DUG (22)
€2m
BBB (18)
€2m
DZ (15)
€2m
O1 (19)
€2m
KUS (12)
€2m
CZ (14)
€2m
HC (19)
€2m
Croatia Zmijavci and Orijent 1919 have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VUK (6)
€1m
O1 (4)
€1m
SES (7)
€1m
DUG (10)
€1m
BBB (7)
€1m
CZ (7)
€1m
KUS (3)
€1m
HC (6)
€0m
DZ (4)
€0m
Croatia Zmijavci and Orijent 1919 have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (4)
€1m
DZ (3)
€1m
DUG (4)
€1m
HC (6)
€0m
BBB (2)
€0m
KUS (2)
€0m
VUK (2)
€0m
CZ (2)
€0m
O1 (2)
€0m
Croatia Zmijavci and Orijent 1919 have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (11)
€2m
O1 (13)
€1m
DZ (8)
€1m
KUS (7)
€1m
BBB (9)
€1m
VUK (5)
€1m
DUG (8)
€1m
CZ (5)
€1m
HC (7)
€1m
Croatia Zmijavci and Orijent 1919 have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
0
CZ wins
2
Draws
1
O1 wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Croatia Zmijavci vs Orijent 1919 · H/A from CZ
DateH/AGameScore
22/04/23AOrijent 1919 Vs CZ2-0
18/02/23AOrijent 1919 Vs CZ0-0
25/09/22HCZ Vs Orijent 19192-2

Croatia ZmijavciCroatia Zmijavci

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/10/23AZrinski Jurjevac Vs CZ4-0
08/10/23HCZ Vs Sibenik0-0
30/09/23ASolin Vs CZ0-0
24/09/23HCZ Vs Vukovar2-2
16/09/23AJarun Vs CZ5-2
10/09/23HCZ Vs Dubrava Zagreb1-2
02/09/23ABsk Bijelo Brdo Vs CZ0-0
25/08/23ADugopolje Vs CZ1-1
20/08/23HCZ Vs Sesvete0-0
12/08/23AHNK Cibalia Vs CZ1-0

Orijent 1919Orijent 1919

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/10/23HO1 Vs Dugopolje1-2
06/10/23ASesvete Vs O11-1
30/09/23HO1 Vs HNK Cibalia0-3
23/09/23HO1 Vs Bsk Bijelo Brdo1-0
15/09/23AZrinski Jurjevac Vs O11-2
09/09/23HO1 Vs Sibenik5-4
02/09/23ASolin Vs O14-1
26/08/23HO1 Vs Vukovar0-1
21/08/23AJarun Vs O14-2
12/08/23HO1 Vs Dubrava Zagreb1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Croatia Zmijavci
Croatia Zmijavci
Croatia: First NL
Recent: 0 Wins / 6 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDDL1.14
HomeWDLDD1.60
AwayDDLDL0.74
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%45%13%
AVG goals2.372.352.39
Over 1.5 %72%80%65%
Over 2.5 %49%50%48%
Over 3.5 %23%15%30%
Scored1.001.350.70
Conceded1.371.001.70
BTTS47%50%43%
Clean Sheet33%35%30%
Corners---
Cards---
Orijent 1919
Orijent 1919
Croatia: First NL
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLDL1.26
HomeLWWLL1.68
AwayLLLWD0.81
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%45%14%
AVG goals2.912.643.19
Over 1.5 %74%68%81%
Over 2.5 %56%45%67%
Over 3.5 %37%27%48%
Scored1.371.551.19
Conceded1.531.092.00
BTTS53%45%62%
Clean Sheet28%41%14%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1SibenikSibenik3382
79%
2.5
6818+50
2.6
73%
52%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.10.5
-
2Zrinski JurjevacZrinski Jurjevac3381
79%
2.5
5318+35
2.2
61%
42%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.60.5
-
3VukovarVukovar3358
48%
1.8
5636+20
2.8
79%
61%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.71.1
-
4SesveteSesvete3342
36%
1.3
3641-5
2.3
67%
42%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1121.11.2
-
5JarunJarun3340
33%
1.2
3546-11
2.5
70%
39%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.4
-
6Orijent 1919Orijent 19193539
26%
1.1
3850-12
2.5
60%
43%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.4
-
7Dubrava ZagrebDubrava Zagreb3338
30%
1.2
3644-8
2.4
73%
45%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.11.3
-
8DugopoljeDugopolje3337
24%
1.1
3845-7
2.5
82%
55%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.21.4
-
9HNK CibaliaHNK Cibalia3337
33%
1.1
3757-20
2.8
76%
55%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0011.11.7
-
10Croatia ZmijavciCroatia Zmijavci3336
24%
1.1
3948-9
2.6
76%
48%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.21.5
-
11Bsk Bijelo BrdoBsk Bijelo Brdo3334
21%
1.0
3044-14
2.2
64%
42%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.91.3
-
12SolinSolin3324
12%
0.7
3350-17
2.5
73%
48%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.5
-
13KustosijaKustosija20
0%
0.0
24-2
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.02.0
-
Croatia: First NL 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: First NL stats & trends →

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