The match between Croatia Zmijavci and Sesvete is finely balanced, with the model favouring a home win. Home and away win probabilities sit at 37% and 32% respectively, while a draw is 30%. The average goal expectation is 2.4, and the most likely total is two goals, a 28% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.4% probability. Croatia Zmijavci, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.27 goals scored and 1.07 conceded. Sesvete, on the road, averages 1.09 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (98.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.2%), Under 5.5 (96.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.3%), Under 4.5 (90.8%), Away under 2.5 goals (89.5%), and Home under 2.5 goals (87.1%). Croatia Zmijavci are on a three-game winning streak, while Sesvete come off a win, adding intrigue to an evenly poised contest.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Croatia Zmijavci win
39.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
31.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sesvete win
29.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Croatia Zmijavci
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.30
1.33
1.00
0.93
1.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.13
1.30
1.33
1.00
0.93
1.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Sesvete) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sesvete
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.90
1.59
0.65
1.15
1.23
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.38
0.73
1.56
0.56
1.10
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
2.00
2.00
2.00
1.33
2.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Croatia Zmijavci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
65.9%
Under 1.5
34.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
37.8%
Under 2.5
62.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
18.1%
Under 3.5
81.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
45.5%
No
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
12.4%
1-0
12.0%
0-1
9.7%
2-0
8.0%
2-1
8.0%
1-2
6.6%
0-2
5.5%
Croatia Zmijavci goals ↓
Sesvete goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
9.7%
5.5%
1.8%
0.5%
1
12%
15%
6.6%
2.2%
0.6%
2
8.0%
8.0%
4.0%
1.3%
0.3%
3
3.2%
3.2%
1.6%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.0%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Croatia Zmijavci goals (down), columns = Sesvete goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
HNK Cibalia
1.76
Sesvete
1.73
Vukovar
1.68
Dugopolje
1.64
Dubrava Zagreb
1.42
Dinamo Zagreb U21
1.39
Segesta Sisak
1.38
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.27
Karlovac 1919
1.27
Opatija
1.21
Orijent 1919
1.15
Jadran LP
1.14
Hrvace
1.09
Croatia Zmijavci
1.06
Kustosija
1.02
Mladost Ždralovi
0.51
Croatia Zmijavci is 0.67 points worse than Sesvete in terms of average points per game (1.06 vs 1.73).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
HNK Cibalia
1.55
Vukovar
1.43
Sesvete
1.27
Dugopolje
1.21
Karlovac 1919
1.21
Orijent 1919
1.21
Dubrava Zagreb
1.18
Dinamo Zagreb U21
1.18
Segesta Sisak
1.17
Hrvace
1.09
Croatia Zmijavci
0.97
Jadran LP
0.97
Opatija
0.94
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.91
Kustosija
0.86
Mladost Ždralovi
0.43
Croatia Zmijavci is 0.30 goals worse than Sesvete in terms of goals scored per game (0.97 vs 1.27).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sesvete
0.85
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.91
Vukovar
0.96
HNK Cibalia
1.00
Dugopolje
1.15
Opatija
1.15
Dinamo Zagreb U21
1.17
Segesta Sisak
1.17
Orijent 1919
1.24
Karlovac 1919
1.36
Dubrava Zagreb
1.39
Croatia Zmijavci
1.39
Jadran LP
1.42
Hrvace
1.45
Kustosija
1.59
Mladost Ždralovi
3.18
Croatia Zmijavci is 0.55 goals worse than Sesvete in terms of goals conceded per game (1.39 vs 0.85).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Croatia Zmijavci or Draw
70.9%
Avg Implied -
39%
32%
29%
covers Croatia Zmijavci + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Croatia Zmijavci or Sesvete
68.4%
Avg Implied -
39%
32%
29%
covers Croatia Zmijavci + Sesvete
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Sesvete
60.6%
Avg Implied -
39%
32%
29%
covers Draw + Sesvete
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Croatia Zmijavci over/under 0.5
Over
70.0%
Under
30.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Croatia Zmijavci over/under 1.5
Over
33.9%
Under
66.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Croatia Zmijavci over/under 2.5
Over
12.1%
Under
87.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Croatia Zmijavci over/under 3.5
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sesvete over/under 0.5
Over
63.2%
Under
36.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sesvete over/under 1.5
Over
26.4%
Under
73.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sesvete over/under 2.5
Over
8.0%
Under
92.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sesvete over/under 3.5
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Croatia Zmijavci, so a minus line means Croatia Zmijavci give that many goals of a start and Sesvete receive them. At -1, Croatia Zmijavci must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Croatia Zmijavci win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Croatia Zmijavci)
Croatia Zmijavci -2
5.9%
Draw -2
11.7%
Sesvete +2
82.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Croatia Zmijavci)
Croatia Zmijavci -1
17.6%
Draw -1
21.7%
Sesvete +1
60.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Croatia Zmijavci)
Croatia Zmijavci +1
70.9%
Draw +1
17.8%
Sesvete -1
11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Croatia Zmijavci)
Croatia Zmijavci +2
88.8%
Draw +2
8.1%
Sesvete -2
3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Croatia Zmijavci
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.60
0.40
0.53
0.13
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.27
0.60
0.40
0.53
0.13
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Sesvete) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sesvete
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.37
0.65
0.29
0.62
0.46
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.35
0.62
0.25
0.60
0.50
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Croatia Zmijavci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Croatia Zmijavci over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Croatia Zmijavci over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Croatia Zmijavci over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sesvete over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sesvete over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sesvete over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Croatia Zmijavci
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.70
0.93
0.47
0.80
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.87
0.70
0.93
0.47
0.80
0.93
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Sesvete) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sesvete
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.53
0.94
0.35
0.54
0.77
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.77
0.38
0.94
0.31
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.67
1.67
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Croatia Zmijavci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Croatia Zmijavci over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Croatia Zmijavci over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Croatia Zmijavci over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sesvete over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sesvete over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sesvete over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
K1 (26)
€4m
SES (22)
€3m
VUK (13)
€2m
DUG (22)
€2m
OPA (22)
€2m
BBB (18)
€2m
DZ (15)
€2m
O1 (19)
€2m
HRV (20)
€2m
KUS (12)
€2m
JL (9)
€2m
CZ (14)
€2m
HC (19)
€2m
DZU (2)
€1m
MŽ (4)
€0m
Croatia Zmijavci's squad is €2m less valuable than Sesvete's (€2m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
K1 (10)
€2m
VUK (6)
€1m
HRV (8)
€1m
JL (4)
€1m
O1 (4)
€1m
SES (7)
€1m
DUG (10)
€1m
BBB (7)
€1m
CZ (7)
€1m
KUS (3)
€1m
DZU (1)
€0m
HC (6)
€0m
MŽ (4)
€0m
OPA (7)
€0m
DZ (4)
€0m
Croatia Zmijavci and Sesvete have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (4)
€1m
DZ (3)
€1m
DUG (4)
€1m
OPA (5)
€1m
K1 (5)
€0m
HC (6)
€0m
BBB (2)
€0m
KUS (2)
€0m
VUK (2)
€0m
CZ (2)
€0m
DZU (1)
€0m
O1 (2)
€0m
HRV (3)
€0m
JL (1)
€0m
MŽ (0)
€0m
Croatia Zmijavci and Sesvete have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (11)
€2m
OPA (10)
€1m
O1 (13)
€1m
DZ (8)
€1m
HRV (9)
€1m
KUS (7)
€1m
BBB (9)
€1m
VUK (5)
€1m
K1 (11)
€1m
DUG (8)
€1m
CZ (5)
€1m
HC (7)
€1m
JL (4)
€1m
MŽ (0)
€0m
DZU (0)
€0m
Croatia Zmijavci and Sesvete have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Croatia: First NL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: First NL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Mladost Ždralovi
Jadran LP
Dugopolje
HNK Cibalia
Orijent 1919
Opatija
Segesta Sisak
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
Vukovar
Karlovac 1919
Dinamo Zagreb U21
Kustosija
Dubrava Zagreb
Hrvace