De Graafschap’s recent five matches ended with two straight defeats, yet the club’s home form shows a solid average of 2.21 goals scored and 1.71 conceded against similarly matched opponents. Almere City FC, on the other hand, has won their last two away games and averages 2.0 goals scored with 1.79 conceded in such fixtures. The model’s most probable outcome is a home win, with a 39 % chance, matching the 39 % chance of an away win and a 22 % chance of a draw. The expected total of 4.0 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 8.2 % probability. The prediction diverges most sharply from market expectations on the over/under 2.5 goals in the first half, where the model rates an 97.3 % chance of the away side scoring fewer than 2.5 goals - an edge of 6 %. Suggested picks include: Away under 2.5 HT goals97.3 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals96.7 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals95.2 %, Under 7.595.1 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals93.7 %, Over 1.591.4 %, Under 6.589.2 %, and Under 5.5 cards88.3 %.
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved accurate as Almere City FC secured a 1-4 away victory, extending their three-game winning streak. The pre-match favourite, Away win, was chosen with a 40% probability and the result matched the actual outcome. The most likely total of 6+ goals materialised, with the final tally of five goals. The model’s selections performed largely well: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 97.6%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.6%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 95.8%, Under 7.5 at 95.1%, Over 1.5 at 91.3%, Under 6.5 at 89.3%, and Under 5.5 cards at 88.6%. Only Away under 2.5 2H goals missed, finishing at 90.3%. The model’s overall accuracy was commendable.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
De Graafschap win✗ Miss
38.1%
Avg Implied 41.1% · @ 2.26
Edge
-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.40
Pinnacle
2.30
Betano
2.30
Superbet
2.27
Dafabet
2.27
Draw✗ Miss
22.3%
Avg Implied 23.4% · @ 3.97
Edge
-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.28
Marathonbet
4.10
Bet365
4.10
1xBet
4.05
Superbet
4.00
Almere City FC win✓ Hit
39.6%
Avg Implied 35.6% · @ 2.61
Edge
+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.75
Dafabet
2.75
Bet365
2.70
Betfair
2.63
Pinnacle
2.62
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
De Graafschap
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
1.70
2.21
1.71
1.81
1.69
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (29)
2.00
1.72
2.21
1.71
1.80
1.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Almere City FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Almere City FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.07
1.57
2.00
1.29
2.12
1.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
2.03
1.55
1.92
1.23
2.12
1.81
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
2.00
3.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (De Graafschap) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
91.3%
@ 1.07+4.7%
Under 1.5
8.7%
@ 7.00-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Pinnacle
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.07
Under
Betfair
8.00
BetVictor
7.50
Marathonbet
7.40
Pinnacle
7.05
Bet365
7.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
75.7%
@ 1.31+4.7%
Under 2.5
24.3%
@ 3.21-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.35
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Unibet
1.32
Under
Betfair
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.38
Marathonbet
3.20
BetVictor
3.20
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
56.0%
@ 1.82+4.7%
Under 3.5
44.0%
@ 1.92-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.90
SBO
1.88
1xBet
1.86
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.83
Under
Pinnacle
2.05
Betfair
2.00
Marathonbet
1.97
Superbet
1.97
SBO
1.94
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
75.1%
@ 1.30+4.1%
No
24.9%
@ 3.19-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
Betfair
1.30
Superbet
1.30
No
Betfair
3.40
Marathonbet
3.26
Bet365
3.25
BetVictor
3.25
1xBet
3.21
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
8.2%@ 8.69+2.9%
1-2
7.5%@ 10.06+2.9%
2-2
7.3%@ 9.59+2.6%
2-1
7.3%@ 9.13+2.3%
1-3
5.0%@ 16.05+2.1%
2-3
4.9%@ 16.13+2.1%
3-2
4.8%@ 14.59+1.7%
3-1
4.8%@ 13.70+1.5%
De Graafschap goals ↓
Almere City FC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.6%
3.0%
3.8%
2.5%
1.3%
1
3.0%
8.2%
7.5%
5.0%
2.5%
2
3.7%
7.3%
7.3%
4.9%
2.4%
3
2.4%
4.8%
4.8%
3.2%
1.6%
4
1.2%
2.4%
2.4%
1.6%
0.8%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = De Graafschap goals (down), columns = Almere City FC goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
De Graafschap
1.60
Almere City FC
1.55
Heracles
1.53
NAC Breda
1.50
FC Volendam
1.50
Jong PSV U21
1.47
Vitesse
1.47
Waalwijk
1.45
Roda
1.43
Den Bosch
1.27
Dordrecht
1.24
FC Eindhoven
1.24
Jong Utrecht
1.21
Emmen
1.18
VVV Venlo
1.18
FC OSS
1.16
Jong AZ
1.05
Helmond Sport
1.03
MVV
1.00
Jong Ajax
0.92
De Graafschap is 0.05 points better than Almere City FC in terms of average points per game (1.60 vs 1.55).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Almere City FC
2.02
De Graafschap
1.93
Waalwijk
1.76
Heracles
1.74
Jong PSV U21
1.74
NAC Breda
1.71
Vitesse
1.68
Den Bosch
1.68
Jong AZ
1.61
Emmen
1.53
Jong Utrecht
1.53
Roda
1.52
FC Volendam
1.50
FC OSS
1.42
FC Eindhoven
1.34
VVV Venlo
1.32
Jong Ajax
1.32
Dordrecht
1.26
Helmond Sport
1.11
MVV
1.08
De Graafschap is 0.10 goals worse than Almere City FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.93 vs 2.02).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Roda
1.40
Heracles
1.44
Vitesse
1.45
NAC Breda
1.47
Dordrecht
1.47
FC Volendam
1.50
Waalwijk
1.50
VVV Venlo
1.53
De Graafschap
1.57
Almere City FC
1.61
Jong Utrecht
1.63
Helmond Sport
1.63
Jong PSV U21
1.68
FC OSS
1.68
FC Eindhoven
1.82
Den Bosch
1.88
Emmen
1.89
MVV
1.92
Jong Ajax
1.92
Jong AZ
2.00
De Graafschap is 0.04 goals better than Almere City FC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.57 vs 1.61).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
De Graafschap
56%
Jong AZ
54%
Roda
52%
Emmen
52%
Jong PSV U21
52%
Jong Ajax
52%
Waalwijk
50%
VVV Venlo
49%
Helmond Sport
49%
Dordrecht
48%
Almere City FC
48%
Jong Utrecht
48%
Den Bosch
47%
Vitesse
46%
FC Eindhoven
44%
MVV
44%
FC OSS
43%
De Graafschap is 7.9 percentage points better than Almere City FC in terms of average possession (56% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
De Graafschap
For 4.8 · Against 5.0 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.8 · Against 10.9 · Total 23.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Almere City FC
For 4.8 · Against 4.6 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.0 · Total 2.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 7.8 · Total 19.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
De Graafschap
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.8
11.6
12.0
3.0
2.9
3.0
22.9
22.3
23.5
vs Stronger (2)
13.5
12.0
15.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
vs Similar (48)
11.7
11.5
11.9
3.0
3.0
3.1
23.1
22.5
23.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
73%
65%
80%
38%
33%
42%
60%
57%
64%
% under line
27%
35%
20%
62%
67%
58%
40%
43%
36%
This opponent (Almere City FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Almere City FC
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.0
11.5
10.6
2.6
2.6
2.5
21.0
20.7
21.3
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (48)
11.1
11.6
10.7
2.5
2.6
2.4
20.8
20.8
20.8
vs Weaker (2)
9.0
10.0
8.0
4.0
3.0
5.0
25.5
19.0
32.0
% over line
66%
67%
65%
32%
33%
31%
48%
43%
52%
% under line
34%
33%
35%
68%
67%
69%
52%
57%
48%
This opponent (De Graafschap) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Den Bosch
12.2
FC OSS
11.9
De Graafschap
11.7
Dordrecht
11.3
VVV Venlo
11.2
Almere City FC
11.0
Heracles
10.7
Helmond Sport
10.7
Jong PSV U21
10.6
Jong Ajax
10.6
Jong AZ
10.5
FC Eindhoven
10.4
FC Volendam
10.3
Emmen
10.3
MVV
10.2
Vitesse
10.0
Waalwijk
10.0
Roda
9.9
NAC Breda
9.8
Jong Utrecht
9.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Vitesse
4.5
Dordrecht
4.3
FC OSS
4.1
Jong Ajax
3.9
NAC Breda
3.9
Emmen
3.8
Den Bosch
3.7
VVV Venlo
3.5
Heracles
3.5
Jong AZ
3.4
FC Volendam
3.4
Roda
3.3
Helmond Sport
3.3
Waalwijk
3.3
De Graafschap
3.3
MVV
3.2
Jong PSV U21
3.2
FC Eindhoven
3.1
Almere City FC
3.0
Jong Utrecht
2.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC OSS
29.0
Vitesse
26.7
Emmen
25.9
Dordrecht
25.8
Jong Utrecht
25.5
Helmond Sport
25.4
Jong Ajax
25.0
Roda
24.8
Heracles
24.1
VVV Venlo
23.8
Jong PSV U21
23.5
Jong AZ
23.5
Den Bosch
23.3
NAC Breda
22.9
De Graafschap
22.8
FC Eindhoven
22.6
MVV
22.5
Waalwijk
22.4
FC Volendam
22.3
Almere City FC
20.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
60.8%
@ 1.49-1.2%
Under 9.5
39.2%
@ 2.42+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.56
Betano
1.55
Pinnacle
1.50
1xBet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.45
Under
Unibet
2.60
Pinnacle
2.47
Marathonbet
2.44
Betano
2.37
1xBet
2.36
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
41.4%
Under 3.5
58.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
56.4%
Under 21.5
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
De Graafschap or Draw✗ Miss
60.4%
Avg Implied 64.5% · @ 1.45
Edge
-4.1%
38%
22%
40%
covers De Graafschap + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.50
Unibet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.46
1xBet
1.46
10Bet
1.44
De Graafschap or Almere City FC✓ Hit
77.7%
Avg Implied 76.7% · @ 1.22
Edge
+1.0%
38%
22%
40%
covers De Graafschap + Almere City FC
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Draw or Almere City FC✓ Hit
61.9%
Avg Implied 58.8% · @ 1.59
Edge
+3.1%
38%
22%
40%
covers Draw + Almere City FC
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.65
Betfair
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
William Hil
1.60
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
De Graafschap over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
86.0%
@ 1.11+2.8%
Under
14.0%
@ 5.51-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Under
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Superbet
5.60
10Bet
5.50
BetVictor
5.50
De Graafschap over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
58.4%
@ 1.62+1.3%
Under
41.6%
@ 2.17-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.65
Unibet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.64
1xBet
1.64
BetVictor
1.62
Under
Pinnacle
2.27
Betfair
2.25
Marathonbet
2.22
Superbet
2.20
Bet365
2.20
De Graafschap over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
31.4%
@ 2.93-0.2%
Under
68.6%
@ 1.35+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.10
BetVictor
3.00
Bet365
3.00
10Bet
2.95
1xBet
2.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.39
Betano
1.38
Marathonbet
1.37
Superbet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
De Graafschap over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
13.7%
@ 5.79-2.4%
Under
86.3%
@ 1.11+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.00
Superbet
5.75
Betano
5.50
1xBet
5.20
Under
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Almere City FC over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
86.5%
@ 1.14+5.1%
Under
13.5%
@ 4.98-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Under
Betfair
5.50
Superbet
5.10
Bet365
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
Unibet
4.90
Almere City FC over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
59.5%
@ 1.73+5.8%
Under
40.5%
@ 2.00-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.80
10Bet
1.80
1xBet
1.75
BetVictor
1.75
Pinnacle
1.74
Under
Betfair
2.10
Pinnacle
2.10
Marathonbet
2.06
Betano
2.05
Unibet
2.02
Almere City FC over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
32.4%
@ 3.31+4.4%
Under
67.6%
@ 1.29-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.50
10Bet
3.50
Bet365
3.50
BetVictor
3.40
Pinnacle
3.26
Under
Pinnacle
1.32
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.31
Betfair
1.30
Marathonbet
1.29
Almere City FC over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
14.3%
@ 6.94+0.9%
Under
85.7%
@ 1.08-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.00
1xBet
6.70
Superbet
6.50
Betano
6.50
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
1xBet
1.06
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to De Graafschap, so a minus line means De Graafschap give that many goals of a start and Almere City FC receive them. At -1, De Graafschap must win by two or more to land; a one-goal De Graafschap win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (De Graafschap)Actual: Almere City FC
De Graafschap -2
9.6%
@ 7.54-2.3%
Draw -2
11.5%
@ 6.38-2.5%
Almere City FC +2
78.9%
@ 1.21+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
8.00
Marathonbet
7.70
Bet365
7.50
10Bet
7.50
Superbet
7.00
Draw
Marathonbet
6.90
Bet365
6.50
Unibet
6.40
Superbet
6.10
10Bet
6.00
Away
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.18
Unibet
1.18
Handicap -1 (De Graafschap)Actual: Almere City FC
De Graafschap -1
21.1%
@ 3.85-2.1%
Draw -1
17.0%
@ 4.42-3.2%
Almere City FC +1
61.9%
@ 1.58+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Marathonbet
3.88
Superbet
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.55
Superbet
4.35
Unibet
4.35
Betfair
4.33
Away
10Bet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Superbet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.58
Betfair
1.57
Handicap +1 (De Graafschap)Actual: Almere City FC
De Graafschap +1
60.4%
@ 1.46-0.9%
Draw +1
17.4%
@ 4.69-1.7%
Almere City FC -1
22.2%
@ 4.55+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.49
Superbet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.46
10Bet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.90
Superbet
4.75
10Bet
4.50
Unibet
4.30
Away
Bet365
4.75
10Bet
4.75
Marathonbet
4.60
Superbet
4.45
Unibet
4.20
Handicap +2 (De Graafschap)Actual: Almere City FC
De Graafschap +2
77.8%
@ 1.16+2.3%
Draw +2
12.0%
@ 6.47-1.5%
Almere City FC -2
10.3%
@ 7.93-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.13
Draw
Bet365
8.00
Unibet
6.50
Marathonbet
4.90
Away
Bet365
10.00
Unibet
8.00
Marathonbet
5.80
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
De Graafschap
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.57
0.86
0.50
1.00
0.62
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (29)
0.93
0.55
0.86
0.50
1.00
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Almere City FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Almere City FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.87
0.71
0.79
0.50
0.94
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.59
0.86
0.69
0.77
0.50
0.94
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (De Graafschap) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
74.1%
@ 1.17-4.8%
Under 0.5
25.9%
@ 4.40+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
BetVictor
1.18
Under
Betfair
4.80
Marathonbet
4.55
Superbet
4.40
BetVictor
4.40
William Hil
4.40
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
40.9%
@ 1.90-8.1%
Under 1.5
59.1%
@ 1.83+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.99
Betano
1.98
William Hil
1.95
1xBet
1.92
Bet365
1.91
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathonbet
1.86
Superbet
1.85
Betfair
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
16.4%
@ 3.82-7.8%
Under 2.5
83.6%
@ 1.22+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.00
BetVictor
3.90
1xBet
3.90
Betano
3.80
William Hil
3.80
Under
Superbet
1.24
Betano
1.24
William Hil
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Bet365
1.22
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
De Graafschap over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
53.7%
@ 1.62-3.5%
Under
46.3%
@ 2.17+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.67
Unibet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Pinnacle
1.61
Under
Pinnacle
2.30
10Bet
2.20
Superbet
2.17
1xBet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.14
De Graafschap over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
16.8%
@ 3.99-6.4%
Under
83.2%
@ 1.20+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.20
Betano
4.00
10Bet
3.95
1xBet
3.90
Superbet
3.90
Under
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
De Graafschap over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.4%
@ 9.75-6.2%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.03+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
10.00
Superbet
10.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
10Bet
1.03
Almere City FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
53.2%
@ 1.69-1.7%
Under
46.8%
@ 2.06+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.75
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.70
1xBet
1.69
Superbet
1.69
Under
Pinnacle
2.13
Unibet
2.07
Marathonbet
2.06
10Bet
2.05
1xBet
2.05
Almere City FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.7%
@ 4.42-7.2%
Under
86.3%
@ 1.17+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.60
Betano
4.50
Superbet
4.35
10Bet
4.33
1xBet
4.30
Under
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
Almere City FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.4%
@ 11.42-5.8%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.02+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
10Bet
11.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
De Graafschap
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.13
1.36
1.21
0.81
1.06
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (29)
1.07
1.17
1.36
1.21
0.80
1.13
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Almere City FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Almere City FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
0.70
1.29
0.50
1.62
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
1.45
0.69
1.23
0.46
1.62
0.88
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (De Graafschap) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
82.1%
@ 1.10-3.0%
Under 0.5
17.9%
@ 6.26+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Under
Bet365
6.50
1xBet
6.40
Betano
6.30
Superbet
6.10
William Hil
6.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
53.0%
@ 1.51-8.3%
Under 1.5
47.0%
@ 2.39+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.53
Betano
1.52
Unibet
1.52
1xBet
1.51
Superbet
1.51
Under
Betano
2.50
Marathonbet
2.44
William Hil
2.40
Bet365
2.38
Superbet
2.37
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
27.0%
@ 2.57-9.1%
Under 2.5
73.0%
@ 1.45+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.62
1xBet
2.62
Bet365
2.62
Marathonbet
2.53
Betano
2.52
Under
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
William Hil
1.44
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
De Graafschap over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
55.7%
@ 1.42-9.7%
Under
44.3%
@ 2.67+9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.42
Superbet
1.42
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.40
Under
10Bet
2.70
Betano
2.70
1xBet
2.65
Superbet
2.65
De Graafschap over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
21.7%
@ 2.95-9.6%
Under
78.3%
@ 1.35+9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.00
Superbet
3.00
Marathonbet
2.98
1xBet
2.90
Betano
2.87
Under
Betano
1.38
Marathonbet
1.34
1xBet
1.34
Superbet
1.34
10Bet
1.33
De Graafschap over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.2%
@ 7.22-8.6%
Under
95.8%
@ 1.06+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.60
10Bet
7.50
Superbet
7.30
Betano
6.50
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Almere City FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
64.8%
@ 1.48+2.2%
Under
35.2%
@ 2.48-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.50
Superbet
1.48
1xBet
1.47
Betano
1.47
Under
Betano
2.57
1xBet
2.50
Superbet
2.47
10Bet
2.40
Almere City FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
27.7%
@ 3.25-0.8%
Under
72.3%
@ 1.30+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.26
Superbet
3.20
1xBet
3.20
Betano
3.10
Under
Betano
1.34
Superbet
1.31
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.29
10Bet
1.25
Almere City FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
9.7%
@ 8.22-1.5%
Under
90.3%
@ 1.04+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
9.00
1xBet
8.70
Superbet
8.00
Betano
7.20
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
-
-
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.6%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
10Bet
1.03
-
-
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.8%
1.06
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
-
+8.6%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
95.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
91.3%
1.07
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Pinnacle
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.07
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
90.3%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-
+1.5%
✗ Miss
Under 6.5
89.3%
1.06
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
Bet365
1.06
1xBet
1.06
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
86.5%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
86.3%
1.11
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
86.3%
1.17
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
+7.2%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
86.0%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
85.7%
1.08
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
1xBet
1.06
-0.9%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
83.6%
1.22
Superbet
1.24
Betano
1.24
William Hil
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Bet365
1.22
+7.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
83.2%
1.20
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
+6.4%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.1%
1.10
Bet365
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
-3.0%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
79.0%
1.15
Pinnacle
1.19
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Bet365
1.17
-1.9%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
78.9%
1.21
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.18
Unibet
1.18
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
78.3%
1.35
Betano
1.38
Marathonbet
1.34
1xBet
1.34
Superbet
1.34
10Bet
1.33
+9.6%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
77.8%
1.16
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.13
-
-
+2.3%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
77.7%
1.22
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Bet365
1.22
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
75.7%
1.31
10Bet
1.35
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Unibet
1.32
+4.7%
✓ Hit
BTTS Yes
75.1%
1.30
William Hil
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
Betfair
1.30
Superbet
1.30
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.1%
1.17
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
BetVictor
1.18
-4.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
73.0%
1.45
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
William Hil
1.44
+9.1%
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
72.5%
1.28
Superbet
1.35
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
Unibet
1.24
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
72.3%
1.30
Betano
1.34
Superbet
1.31
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.29
10Bet
1.25
+0.8%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
De Graafschap
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Julian Kania50%
Donny Warmerdam25%
Bjorn van Zijl25%
Jason Meerstadt0%
Ties Wieggers0%
Nathan Kaninda0%
Kaya Symons0%
Joran Hardeman0%
Rowan Besselink0%
Nart Ahmeti0%
Toivo Mero0%
Denzel Eijken0%
Gijs Bolk0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Donny Warmerdam50%
Kaya Symons33%
Rowan Besselink33%
Nart Ahmeti25%
Julian Kania25%
Gijs Bolk25%
Jason Meerstadt0%
Ties Wieggers0%
Nathan Kaninda0%
Joran Hardeman0%
Toivo Mero0%
Denzel Eijken0%
Bjorn van Zijl0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Toivo Mero67%
Nart Ahmeti25%
Jason Meerstadt0%
Donny Warmerdam0%
Ties Wieggers0%
Nathan Kaninda0%
Kaya Symons0%
Joran Hardeman0%
Rowan Besselink0%
Julian Kania0%
Denzel Eijken0%
Gijs Bolk0%
Bjorn van Zijl0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Julian Kania75%
Joran Hardeman25%
Jason Meerstadt0%
Donny Warmerdam0%
Ties Wieggers0%
Nathan Kaninda0%
Kaya Symons0%
Rowan Besselink0%
Nart Ahmeti0%
Toivo Mero0%
Denzel Eijken0%
Gijs Bolk0%
Bjorn van Zijl0%
Almere City FC
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ferdy Druijf100%
Emanuel Poku50%
Byron Burgering33%
Enzo Cornelisse25%
Marley Dors25%
Mees Hoedemakers0%
Damian van Bruggen0%
Teun Bijleveld0%
Joey Jacobs0%
Wessel Speel0%
Emmanuel van de Blaak0%
Hamza El Dahri0%
Jereno van Gom0%
Bas Huisman0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mees Hoedemakers25%
Enzo Cornelisse25%
Emmanuel van de Blaak25%
Hamza El Dahri25%
Marley Dors25%
Ferdy Druijf0%
Damian van Bruggen0%
Teun Bijleveld0%
Joey Jacobs0%
Byron Burgering0%
Wessel Speel0%
Jereno van Gom0%
Emanuel Poku0%
Bas Huisman0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ferdy Druijf50%
Enzo Cornelisse50%
Marley Dors50%
Byron Burgering33%
Mees Hoedemakers25%
Emanuel Poku25%
Damian van Bruggen0%
Teun Bijleveld0%
Joey Jacobs0%
Wessel Speel0%
Emmanuel van de Blaak0%
Hamza El Dahri0%
Jereno van Gom0%
Bas Huisman0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ferdy Druijf75%
Byron Burgering33%
Emanuel Poku25%
Mees Hoedemakers0%
Damian van Bruggen0%
Teun Bijleveld0%
Joey Jacobs0%
Wessel Speel0%
Enzo Cornelisse0%
Emmanuel van de Blaak0%
Hamza El Dahri0%
Jereno van Gom0%
Marley Dors0%
Bas Huisman0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (24)
€19m
NB (23)
€10m
ACF (27)
€10m
HER (28)
€8m
ROD (17)
€8m
WAA (22)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
JPU (14)
€7m
FV (20)
€6m
DG (21)
€6m
DOR (21)
€6m
DB (17)
€5m
JA (19)
€5m
EMM (21)
€5m
MVV (21)
€4m
HS (16)
€4m
VV (19)
€4m
FO (17)
€4m
FE (16)
€3m
JU (8)
€2m
De Graafschap's squad is €4m less valuable than Almere City FC's (€6m vs €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ACF (10)
€5m
JA (7)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
WAA (8)
€3m
DB (7)
€3m
DOR (8)
€2m
JA (7)
€2m
FV (6)
€2m
DG (8)
€2m
FE (8)
€2m
HS (5)
€2m
MVV (8)
€1m
VV (6)
€1m
EMM (6)
€1m
JPU (4)
€1m
FO (5)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
De Graafschap's attack is €3m less valuable than Almere City FC's (€2m vs €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (6)
€3m
JPU (3)
€3m
EMM (7)
€2m
NB (3)
€2m
ACF (5)
€2m
DOR (5)
€2m
DG (5)
€2m
ROD (4)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
MVV (4)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
JA (4)
€1m
DB (3)
€1m
HS (5)
€1m
FO (3)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
FE (2)
€0m
VV (3)
€0m
De Graafschap and Almere City FC have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (11)
€12m
NB (10)
€4m
WAA (11)
€3m
HER (11)
€3m
FV (11)
€3m
ACF (12)
€3m
JPU (7)
€3m
DG (8)
€2m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
ROD (6)
€2m
FO (9)
€2m
JA (8)
€2m
DOR (8)
€2m
HS (6)
€2m
MVV (9)
€2m
EMM (8)
€1m
DB (7)
€1m
FE (6)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
De Graafschap and Almere City FC have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Netherlands: Eerste Divisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eerste Divisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Heracles
MVV
VVV Venlo
Emmen
Jong PSV U21
Vitesse
Roda
NAC Breda
FC Volendam
Jong AZ
Waalwijk
Den Bosch
Jong Ajax
Dordrecht
FC OSS
FC Eindhoven
Helmond Sport
Jong Utrecht