The contest between Dekani and Krka is a tight one, with no side clearly ahead. Dekani’s recent run of two losses followed by a win and a draw shows a team that can bounce back, while Krka’s own two defeats before a win suggest similar resilience. The model sees a 39 % chance for a home win, 28 % for a draw, and 33 % for an away victory, making a Dekani win the most likely outcome. On average, the match should see 2.7 goals, with a 26 % chance that the total will be exactly two. The single scoreline the model favours is 1-1, with a 13.5 % probability. Dekani typically scores 1.9 goals and concedes 1.4 against teams of similar strength, whereas Krka averages 1.09 goals scored and 1.45 conceded on the road. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 with a 76.2 % probability, and Under 3.5 with a 71.6 % chance of missing.
Results analysis
Dekani’s recent run of two straight defeats has ended with a 4-3 home win over Krka, a result that the model had already predicted. The pre-match favourite, Home win, came with a 39 % probability and was indeed correct. The match’s total of seven goals far exceeded the model’s expected 2.7 and the most likely 2-goal outcome. The model’s Over 1.5 selection hit, with a 76.2 % chance, while its Under 3.5 missed, having a 71.6 % probability. Dekani’s 4-goal haul and Krka’s 3-goal effort made for a high-scoring affair that left the predicted totals well behind.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dekani win✓ Hit
39.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Krka win✗ Miss
32.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dekani
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.47
1.87
1.40
0.73
1.53
vs Stronger (8)
1.12
1.62
1.50
1.75
0.75
1.50
vs Similar (20)
1.25
1.45
1.90
1.40
0.60
1.50
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.00
3.00
0.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Krka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Krka
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.63
0.88
1.94
1.21
1.29
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.75
0.00
2.50
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.96
1.67
0.85
1.85
1.09
1.45
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
1.00
3.00
2.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Dekani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.2%
Under 1.5
23.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.4%
Under 2.5
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
28.4%
Under 3.5
71.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.8%
No
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
2-1
8.7%
1-0
8.4%
0-0
8.0%
1-2
7.8%
0-1
7.4%
2-0
6.8%
2-2
5.5%
Dekani goals ↓
Krka goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.0%
7.4%
5.5%
2.3%
0.7%
1
8.4%
13%
7.8%
3.3%
1.1%
2
6.8%
8.7%
5.5%
2.3%
0.7%
3
3.2%
4.1%
2.6%
1.1%
0.4%
4
1.1%
1.5%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dekani goals (down), columns = Krka goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Brinje-Grosuplje
2.50
Nafta
2.50
Triglav
2.13
Beltinci
2.00
Tabor Sežana
1.67
Bistrica
1.50
Rudar
1.23
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.13
Dekani
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
0.97
Ilirija
0.90
Krško
0.87
Gorica
0.73
Jesenice
0.60
Dekani is 0.13 points better than Krka in terms of average points per game (1.10 vs 0.97).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Brinje-Grosuplje
2.33
Nafta
2.17
Beltinci
1.83
Bistrica
1.67
Rudar
1.53
Dekani
1.33
Ilirija
1.27
Tabor Sežana
1.23
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
1.07
Dravinja
1.07
Gorica
1.03
Bilje
0.90
Jesenice
0.87
Krško
0.80
Dekani is 0.27 goals better than Krka in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.07).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Nafta
0.77
Beltinci
0.83
Brinje-Grosuplje
0.87
Triglav
0.93
Tabor Sežana
1.10
Bistrica
1.20
Rudar
1.30
Dravinja
1.47
Gorica
1.50
Dekani
1.53
Bilje
1.57
Krka
1.70
Ilirija
1.73
Slovan Ljubljana
1.73
Krško
2.07
Jesenice
2.27
Dekani is 0.17 goals better than Krka in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 1.70).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dekani
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.70
1.00
0.87
0.40
0.53
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
0.62
1.00
0.75
0.25
0.50
vs Similar (20)
0.70
0.80
1.10
1.00
0.30
0.60
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Krka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Krka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.70
0.56
0.88
0.57
0.50
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.58
0.62
0.62
0.77
0.55
0.45
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Dekani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dekani over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dekani over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dekani over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dekani
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.77
0.87
0.53
0.33
1.00
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.55
0.65
0.80
0.40
0.30
0.90
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Krka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Krka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.93
0.31
1.06
0.64
0.79
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.75
0.00
1.50
0.50
0.00
vs Similar (24)
0.38
1.04
0.23
1.08
0.55
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Dekani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dekani over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dekani over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dekani over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TS (43)
€3m
BRI (26)
€3m
BEL (31)
€2m
NAF (24)
€2m
TRI (32)
€2m
BIS (39)
€2m
DEK (50)
€2m
RUD (52)
€2m
SL (36)
€2m
BIL (46)
€2m
ILI (46)
€2m
KRK (42)
€2m
DRA (34)
€1m
KRŠ (36)
€1m
JES (35)
€1m
Dekani and Krka have a similar squad value (both €2m).
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Brinje-Grosuplje
Nafta
Triglav
Beltinci
Tabor Sežana
Bistrica
Rudar
Dravinja
Bilje
Slovan Ljubljana
Ilirija
Krško
Gorica
Jesenice