This opponent (Liège) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Liège
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.47
1.50
1.25
1.29
1.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.38
1.46
1.43
1.29
1.33
1.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Dender) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
80.6%
Under 1.5
19.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
56.8%
Under 2.5
43.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.4%
Under 3.5
65.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
59.5%
No
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
2-1
9.5%
1-0
7.8%
2-0
7.6%
1-2
6.9%
0-0 ✓
6.3%
2-2
5.9%
3-1
5.4%
Dender goals ↓
Liège goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.3%
5.4%
4.0%
1.7%
0.5%
1
7.8%
12%
6.9%
2.9%
0.9%
2
7.6%
9.5%
5.9%
2.5%
0.8%
3
4.3%
5.4%
3.4%
1.4%
0.4%
4
1.9%
2.3%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dender goals (down), columns = Liège goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Beerschot VA
1.87
Dender
1.80
Lommel United
1.76
Deinze
1.76
Liège
1.63
Zulte Waregem
1.62
Patro Eisden
1.59
SK Beveren
1.50
Oostende
1.27
Club Brugge II
1.23
KRC Genk II
1.23
K. Lierse S.K.
1.17
RSC Anderlecht II
1.13
Francs Borains
1.07
Seraing United
0.93
Standard Liège II
0.57
Dender is 0.17 points better than Liège in terms of average points per game (1.80 vs 1.63).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dender
1.83
Lommel United
1.65
Deinze
1.65
Liège
1.63
Zulte Waregem
1.62
KRC Genk II
1.53
Beerschot VA
1.53
SK Beveren
1.47
K. Lierse S.K.
1.47
Club Brugge II
1.33
RSC Anderlecht II
1.30
Patro Eisden
1.28
Francs Borains
1.27
Seraing United
1.10
Oostende
1.07
Standard Liège II
0.83
Dender is 0.20 goals better than Liège in terms of goals scored per game (1.83 vs 1.63).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Beerschot VA
0.97
Lommel United
1.00
Patro Eisden
1.06
Dender
1.07
Zulte Waregem
1.12
Deinze
1.21
Oostende
1.30
SK Beveren
1.33
Liège
1.37
RSC Anderlecht II
1.57
Club Brugge II
1.63
Seraing United
1.70
Francs Borains
1.73
KRC Genk II
1.73
K. Lierse S.K.
1.97
Standard Liège II
2.00
Dender is 0.30 goals better than Liège in terms of goals conceded per game (1.07 vs 1.37).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Beerschot VA
61%
Lommel United
59%
SK Beveren
55%
Club Brugge II
54%
Zulte Waregem
54%
RSC Anderlecht II
51%
KRC Genk II
50%
Deinze
49%
Dender
49%
K. Lierse S.K.
49%
Seraing United
47%
Francs Borains
46%
Standard Liège II
46%
Liège
45%
Oostende
44%
Patro Eisden
41%
Dender is 4.1 percentage points better than Liège in terms of average possession (49% vs 45%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dender
For 6.1 · Against 3.4 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.6 · Against 2.2 · Total 5.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.8 · Against 14.1 · Total 30.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Liège
For 5.3 · Against 7.4 · Total 12.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.4 · Against 10.9 · Total 24.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dender
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (47)
9.5
9.0
9.8
1.2
1.2
1.2
30.9
31.2
30.7
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (37)
9.2
9.0
9.5
1.2
1.5
1.0
31.2
31.2
31.2
vs Weaker (10)
10.5
-
10.5
1.2
0.0
2.0
29.5
-
29.5
% over line
50%
50%
50%
19%
17%
21%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
50%
50%
50%
81%
83%
79%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Liège) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Liège
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (15)
12.7
13.6
11.8
3.6
3.6
3.6
24.3
23.2
25.4
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
12.1
12.5
11.8
4.1
4.0
4.2
25.7
26.0
25.4
vs Weaker (2)
18.0
18.0
-
0.5
1.0
0.0
12.0
12.0
-
% over line
90%
100%
80%
53%
50%
57%
60%
60%
60%
% under line
10%
0%
20%
47%
50%
43%
40%
40%
40%
This opponent (Dender) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Liège
12.7
K. Lierse S.K.
12.2
Club Brugge II
11.4
Seraing United
11.3
KRC Genk II
11.2
Deinze
11.2
Beerschot VA
11.0
Lommel United
10.8
SK Beveren
10.7
RSC Anderlecht II
10.4
Zulte Waregem
10.2
Oostende
10.1
Francs Borains
10.1
Standard Liège II
10.1
Dender
9.5
Patro Eisden
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
K. Lierse S.K.
6.7
KRC Genk II
6.4
RSC Anderlecht II
6.4
Seraing United
5.8
Dender
5.8
Patro Eisden
5.7
Standard Liège II
5.6
Deinze
5.5
Liège
5.4
Francs Borains
5.2
Beerschot VA
5.2
Oostende
4.8
Lommel United
4.7
Club Brugge II
4.7
Zulte Waregem
4.3
SK Beveren
4.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Dender
30.9
Patro Eisden
29.8
Deinze
29.0
Standard Liège II
27.7
RSC Anderlecht II
27.5
Francs Borains
27.4
KRC Genk II
27.2
Seraing United
26.5
Beerschot VA
26.1
K. Lierse S.K.
25.6
Club Brugge II
25.1
SK Beveren
24.9
Liège
24.3
Oostende
24.3
Lommel United
22.8
Zulte Waregem
22.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
60.5%
Under 9.5
39.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
81.5%
Under 3.5
18.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
89.0%
Under 21.5
11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dender
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.63
0.73
0.60
0.47
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.39
0.70
0.58
0.50
0.18
0.91
vs Weaker (7)
1.29
0.43
1.33
1.00
1.25
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Liège) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Liège
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.47
0.88
0.38
0.57
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.77
0.54
0.86
0.43
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Dender) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dender over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dender over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dender over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Liège over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Liège over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Liège over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dender
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.57
0.73
0.60
1.20
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.04
0.57
0.83
0.58
1.27
0.55
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
0.57
0.33
0.67
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Liège) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Liège
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.00
0.62
0.88
0.71
1.14
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.62
0.92
0.57
0.86
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Dender) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dender over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dender over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dender over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Liège over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Liège over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Liège over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Dender
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Bruny Nsimba35%
Ali Akman25%
Arnaud Dony20%
Jordy Soladio19%
Michael Lallemand18%
Desmond Acquah17%
Olivier Myny14%
Kobe Cools12%
Ridwane M'Barki10%
Lennard Hens10%
Stefano Marzo9%
Dylan Ragolle6%
Jasper Van Oudenhove6%
Nicolas Antoine Rajsel5%
Ibrahima Sory Sankhon0%
Nathan Rodes0%
Joedrick Pupe0%
Gilles Ruyssen0%
Xavier Gies0%
Kéres Masangu0%
Fabio Ferraro0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joedrick Pupe38%
Stefano Marzo27%
Olivier Myny27%
Bruny Nsimba26%
Dylan Ragolle25%
Ridwane M'Barki24%
Lennard Hens24%
Gilles Ruyssen17%
Xavier Gies17%
Kobe Cools17%
Jordy Soladio14%
Kéres Masangu11%
Nathan Rodes9%
Fabio Ferraro7%
Nicolas Antoine Rajsel5%
Ibrahima Sory Sankhon0%
Ali Akman0%
Michael Lallemand0%
Jasper Van Oudenhove0%
Arnaud Dony0%
Desmond Acquah0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ridwane M'Barki33%
Lennard Hens33%
Stefano Marzo27%
Nicolas Antoine Rajsel11%
Ali Akman10%
Jordy Soladio10%
Bruny Nsimba9%
Olivier Myny5%
Ibrahima Sory Sankhon0%
Nathan Rodes0%
Joedrick Pupe0%
Dylan Ragolle0%
Michael Lallemand0%
Gilles Ruyssen0%
Xavier Gies0%
Kobe Cools0%
Jasper Van Oudenhove0%
Kéres Masangu0%
Fabio Ferraro0%
Arnaud Dony0%
Desmond Acquah0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Bruny Nsimba43%
Lennard Hens33%
Ridwane M'Barki19%
Ali Akman15%
Nicolas Antoine Rajsel11%
Jordy Soladio10%
Gilles Ruyssen6%
Ibrahima Sory Sankhon0%
Nathan Rodes0%
Stefano Marzo0%
Olivier Myny0%
Joedrick Pupe0%
Dylan Ragolle0%
Michael Lallemand0%
Xavier Gies0%
Kobe Cools0%
Jasper Van Oudenhove0%
Kéres Masangu0%
Fabio Ferraro0%
Arnaud Dony0%
Desmond Acquah0%
Liège
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Adriano Bertaccini42%
Benoit Bruggeman22%
Benoit Nyssen21%
Abian Arslan17%
Yanick Loemba13%
Alessio Cascio12%
Damien Mouchamps11%
Zakaria Atteri10%
Reno Wilmots9%
Mohamed Mouhli9%
Jordan Bustin9%
Ryan Merlen9%
Maxime Cavelier6%
Benjamin Lambot4%
Jonathan D'Ostilio4%
Kevin Debaty0%
Benjamin Van den Ackerveken0%
Jérémie Lioka0%
Jesse Mputu0%
Tom Panepinto0%
Lucca Lucker0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Benoit Nyssen33%
Yanick Loemba30%
Zakaria Atteri30%
Reno Wilmots27%
Jonathan D'Ostilio25%
Jordan Bustin22%
Benjamin Lambot17%
Adriano Bertaccini17%
Alessio Cascio16%
Ryan Merlen13%
Maxime Cavelier12%
Kevin Debaty12%
Jérémie Lioka10%
Abian Arslan8%
Lucca Lucker7%
Mohamed Mouhli4%
Damien Mouchamps0%
Benjamin Van den Ackerveken0%
Benoit Bruggeman0%
Jesse Mputu0%
Tom Panepinto0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Benoit Nyssen21%
Maxime Cavelier19%
Ryan Merlen17%
Reno Wilmots9%
Benjamin Lambot9%
Yanick Loemba9%
Mohamed Mouhli9%
Abian Arslan8%
Alessio Cascio8%
Lucca Lucker7%
Benoit Bruggeman6%
Zakaria Atteri5%
Kevin Debaty0%
Damien Mouchamps0%
Adriano Bertaccini0%
Jordan Bustin0%
Jonathan D'Ostilio0%
Benjamin Van den Ackerveken0%
Jérémie Lioka0%
Jesse Mputu0%
Tom Panepinto0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Adriano Bertaccini33%
Benoit Bruggeman28%
Zakaria Atteri25%
Alessio Cascio16%
Mohamed Mouhli13%
Benoit Nyssen8%
Abian Arslan8%
Jérémie Lioka5%
Reno Wilmots5%
Yanick Loemba4%
Ryan Merlen4%
Benjamin Lambot0%
Kevin Debaty0%
Damien Mouchamps0%
Jordan Bustin0%
Jonathan D'Ostilio0%
Benjamin Van den Ackerveken0%
Jesse Mputu0%
Tom Panepinto0%
Lucca Lucker0%
Maxime Cavelier0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Belgium: Challenger Pro League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belgium: Challenger Pro League stats & trends →
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Lommel United
Deinze
Beerschot VA
Zulte Waregem
Patro Eisden
SK Beveren
Oostende
KRC Genk II
Club Brugge II
K. Lierse S.K.
RSC Anderlecht II
Francs Borains
Seraing United
Standard Liège II