Dender's recent 0-1 defeat to Sporting Hasselt and their struggles at home, conceding an average of 2.71 goals, suggest they may struggle to contain Lommel United's strong away form, scoring 2.4 goals on average. Conversely, Lommel United has been unbeaten in their last 5 matches, including a draw against St. Truiden. This trend, combined with their ability to score 2.4 goals on average away from home, suggests a high-scoring match. The expected total goals stand at 3.3, with the most likely total goals being 3. Lommel United's strong away form and unbeaten streak make them the favourite to win, with a 51% chance of victory. The model's selection is an away win. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.7% probability.
In terms of scoring and conceding, Dender average 1.14 goals at home and concede 2.71, while Lommel United average 2.4 goals away and concede 1.9. The model's suggested picks are Over 1.5 with a 84.9% probability, and the home win percentage is 25%, the draw percentage is 24%, and the away win percentage is 51%.
Results analysis
A surprise draw at the Jupiler Pro League, as Lommel United held Dender to a 0-0 scoreline, extending their unbeaten run and thwarting the pre-match favourite. The model's selection, Lommel United to win, was wrong, given their pre-match probability of 51%. Meanwhile, the suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals by Dender missed, with a probability of 84.9%. The model's call was incorrect, as the actual result was a draw, not a win for Lommel United.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dender win✗ Miss
24.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
23.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lommel United win✗ Miss
51.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dender
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.87
1.44
2.31
1.00
1.36
vs Stronger (8)
0.88
1.50
1.00
1.80
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (21)
1.24
2.00
1.40
2.60
1.09
1.45
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
2.00
4.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Lommel United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lommel United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
1.50
1.94
1.25
2.00
1.79
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.67
1.33
1.75
1.08
1.56
1.67
vs Weaker (9)
2.67
1.89
2.50
1.75
2.80
2.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Dender) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
84.9%
Under 1.5
15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
63.8%
Under 2.5
36.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
41.6%
Under 3.5
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
64.0%
No
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%
1-2
9.5%
0-2
7.2%
2-1
6.4%
0-1
6.4%
2-2
6.3%
1-3
6.2%
0-3
4.7%
Dender goals ↓
Lommel United goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.7%
6.4%
7.2%
4.7%
2.3%
1
4.0%
11%
9.5%
6.2%
3.1%
2
3.3%
6.4%
6.3%
4.1%
2.0%
3
1.4%
2.8%
2.8%
1.8%
0.9%
4
0.5%
0.9%
0.9%
0.6%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dender goals (down), columns = Lommel United goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lommel United
2.67
Club Brugge KV
2.20
Union St. Gilloise
2.15
St. Truiden
1.77
Genk
1.46
Standard Liege
1.43
Anderlecht
1.38
Zulte Waregem
1.33
KVC Westerlo
1.30
KV Mechelen
1.27
Charleroi
1.27
Gent
1.27
Antwerp
1.20
Cercle Brugge
1.14
OH Leuven
1.00
Beerschot VA
1.00
RAAL La Louvière
0.94
Dender
0.68
Patro Eisden
0.50
Liège
0.00
Dender is 1.98 points worse than Lommel United in terms of average points per game (0.68 vs 2.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Lommel United
2.33
Club Brugge KV
2.27
Union St. Gilloise
1.65
St. Truiden
1.52
Beerschot VA
1.50
Patro Eisden
1.50
Anderlecht
1.48
Cercle Brugge
1.47
Zulte Waregem
1.47
Genk
1.41
Gent
1.32
Charleroi
1.25
KVC Westerlo
1.25
KV Mechelen
1.20
Standard Liege
1.10
Antwerp
1.07
OH Leuven
1.02
RAAL La Louvière
0.97
Dender
0.87
Liège
0.50
Dender is 1.46 goals worse than Lommel United in terms of goals scored per game (0.87 vs 2.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Union St. Gilloise
0.68
Lommel United
0.83
Club Brugge KV
1.12
Standard Liege
1.15
St. Truiden
1.15
Antwerp
1.20
Charleroi
1.25
Genk
1.32
RAAL La Louvière
1.39
Gent
1.41
KVC Westerlo
1.43
Zulte Waregem
1.47
OH Leuven
1.50
KV Mechelen
1.52
Anderlecht
1.55
Cercle Brugge
1.61
Dender
1.71
Patro Eisden
2.00
Beerschot VA
2.25
Liège
2.50
Dender is 0.88 goals worse than Lommel United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.71 vs 0.83).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Beerschot VA
64%
Club Brugge KV
60%
Genk
58%
Liège
56%
St. Truiden
55%
Anderlecht
53%
Union St. Gilloise
52%
Charleroi
50%
Antwerp
49%
KVC Westerlo
49%
KV Mechelen
49%
Gent
49%
Zulte Waregem
48%
Dender
48%
Cercle Brugge
48%
OH Leuven
46%
Lommel United
45%
Standard Liege
44%
RAAL La Louvière
39%
Patro Eisden
29%
Dender is 2.7 percentage points better than Lommel United in terms of average possession (48% vs 45%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dender
For 4.4 · Against 6.4 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 0.9 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 8.6 · Total 20.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lommel United
For 5.1 · Against 5.7 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 2.4 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 13.0 · Total 23.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dender
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.0
10.1
3.1
2.6
3.6
21.3
21.5
21.2
vs Stronger (15)
9.9
9.9
9.9
3.0
2.4
3.7
20.9
19.1
22.6
vs Similar (34)
9.5
8.6
10.2
3.2
2.8
3.6
21.5
22.6
20.6
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
45%
30%
58%
40%
35%
46%
49%
52%
46%
% under line
55%
70%
42%
60%
65%
54%
51%
48%
54%
This opponent (Lommel United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lommel United
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.0
10.2
3.3
3.2
3.5
24.4
24.9
23.9
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (34)
9.2
8.4
10.2
3.0
2.9
3.0
24.3
24.8
23.7
vs Weaker (16)
10.4
10.7
10.1
4.1
3.6
4.5
24.6
25.0
24.3
% over line
42%
38%
47%
44%
50%
38%
70%
81%
58%
% under line
58%
62%
53%
56%
50%
62%
30%
19%
42%
This opponent (Dender) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
OH Leuven
11.1
KVC Westerlo
10.8
Club Brugge KV
10.6
Cercle Brugge
10.5
Liège
10.5
KV Mechelen
10.5
Charleroi
10.4
Anderlecht
10.4
Beerschot VA
10.3
Gent
10.2
St. Truiden
9.9
Zulte Waregem
9.9
Standard Liege
9.8
Genk
9.8
Lommel United
9.5
Dender
9.5
Union St. Gilloise
9.2
Antwerp
9.1
Patro Eisden
8.9
RAAL La Louvière
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Patro Eisden
5.6
Anderlecht
5.2
OH Leuven
5.0
Beerschot VA
4.8
Union St. Gilloise
4.8
Liège
4.6
Antwerp
4.3
St. Truiden
4.2
Cercle Brugge
4.2
Lommel United
4.2
Standard Liege
4.1
RAAL La Louvière
4.0
Zulte Waregem
4.0
KV Mechelen
3.9
KVC Westerlo
3.9
Charleroi
3.8
Genk
3.7
Club Brugge KV
3.7
Gent
3.6
Dender
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Patro Eisden
28.2
OH Leuven
25.2
RAAL La Louvière
25.2
Anderlecht
24.9
Liège
24.8
Lommel United
24.6
Beerschot VA
24.3
Antwerp
23.9
Cercle Brugge
23.6
KVC Westerlo
23.0
Zulte Waregem
22.6
Standard Liege
22.1
Genk
22.1
KV Mechelen
21.7
Charleroi
21.7
Union St. Gilloise
21.6
Gent
21.5
St. Truiden
21.3
Dender
21.2
Club Brugge KV
20.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
52.4%
Under 9.5
47.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
46.2%
Under 3.5
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
50.9%
Under 21.5
49.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dender
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.83
0.81
1.00
0.36
0.64
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
0.75
0.80
1.20
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.86
0.90
0.90
0.45
0.82
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Lommel United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lommel United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.63
1.00
0.56
0.93
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.81
0.43
0.83
0.33
0.78
0.56
vs Weaker (9)
1.33
1.11
1.50
1.25
1.20
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Dender) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dender over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dender over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dender over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lommel United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lommel United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lommel United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dender
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.03
0.62
1.31
0.64
0.71
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
0.75
0.20
0.60
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.57
1.14
0.50
1.70
0.64
0.64
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
1.00
4.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Lommel United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lommel United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.87
0.94
0.69
1.07
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.86
0.90
0.92
0.75
0.78
1.11
vs Weaker (9)
1.33
0.78
1.00
0.50
1.60
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Dender) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dender over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dender over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dender over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lommel United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lommel United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lommel United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (33)
€274m
GEN (59)
€182m
USG (35)
€163m
AND (34)
€126m
ANT (35)
€97m
KW (33)
€66m
GEN (46)
€62m
SL (34)
€57m
ST (25)
€53m
KM (30)
€51m
CB (28)
€44m
CHA (58)
€44m
ZW (32)
€32m
DEN (31)
€24m
RLL (28)
€22m
BV (31)
€13m
LU (28)
€13m
PE (22)
€6m
Dender's squad is €11m more valuable than Lommel United's (€24m vs €13m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (13)
€130m
GEN (26)
€106m
USG (12)
€59m
AND (11)
€46m
KW (13)
€32m
ST (11)
€29m
GEN (17)
€24m
ANT (11)
€17m
ZW (12)
€16m
SL (10)
€16m
CB (9)
€14m
KM (10)
€12m
CHA (19)
€11m
RLL (11)
€8m
DEN (8)
€7m
LU (11)
€7m
BV (12)
€4m
PE (7)
€2m
Dender and Lommel United have a similar attack value (both €7m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
USG (11)
€69m
CBK (6)
€65m
AND (6)
€38m
ANT (9)
€24m
GEN (12)
€21m
GEN (8)
€20m
CHA (10)
€14m
KW (7)
€11m
ST (4)
€10m
CB (7)
€9m
SL (8)
€9m
ZW (7)
€8m
KM (7)
€7m
DEN (9)
€7m
RLL (6)
€5m
BV (6)
€2m
LU (5)
€2m
PE (4)
€1m
Dender's midfield is €5m more valuable than Lommel United's (€7m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (14)
€79m
ANT (15)
€57m
GEN (25)
€56m
AND (17)
€42m
USG (12)
€35m
SL (16)
€32m
KM (13)
€32m
KW (13)
€23m
CB (12)
€22m
CHA (29)
€19m
GEN (17)
€16m
ST (10)
€13m
DEN (14)
€10m
RLL (11)
€9m
ZW (13)
€8m
BV (13)
€7m
LU (12)
€4m
PE (11)
€3m
Dender's defence is €5m more valuable than Lommel United's (€10m vs €4m).
Belgium: Jupiler Pro League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belgium: Jupiler Pro League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Club Brugge KV
Union St. Gilloise
St. Truiden
Genk
Standard Liege
Anderlecht
Gent
KVC Westerlo
Charleroi
KV Mechelen
Zulte Waregem
Antwerp
Cercle Brugge
OH Leuven
RAAL La Louvière
Beerschot VA
Patro Eisden
Liège