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Dender vs Union St. Gilloise Result & Analysis

Date: 14/01/2026
Time: 19:30
Final 0-2
Dender
Dender
Vs
16%
18%
66%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Union St. Gilloise
Union St. Gilloise
Belgium: Cup
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Squad value14 Games History15 Overall Statistics16 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Dender enter the cup tie on a shaky five-game run, having won only the first of their last five and lost the final two, yet the model still sees them as the underdog. Union St. Gilloise, fresh from a draw, have been prolific on the road, averaging 1.73 goals scored and conceding just 0.73 against weaker opposition, a stark contrast to Dender’s 0.67 scored and 1.33 conceded at home against stronger teams. This disparity explains why the model rates an away win at 66%, with a home win at 16% and a draw at 18%. The most likely result is the model’s pick: an away win. The expected total of 4.1 goals points to a high-scoring affair, with the most probable scoreline 1-2 for Union St. Gilloise at 8.5%. The model’s selections include Home under 3.5 goals at 95.2%, Under 7.5 at 94.3%, Away over 0.5 goals at 93.6%, Away +2 handicap at 93.3%, Over 1.5 at 92.1%, Under 6.5 at 88.0%, Home under 2.5 goals at 84.6% and Over 2.5 cards at 84.3%.

Results analysis

The win for Union St. Gilloise extends their recent run, and the final score of 0-2 confirmed the model’s prediction that the away side would triumph. The model had chosen an away win with a 66% probability, and that call proved correct. The selections were largely accurate: Home under 3.5 goals hit at 95.2%, Under 7.5 hit at 94.3%, Away over 0.5 goals hit at 93.6%, Away +2 handicap hit at 93.3%, Over 1.5 hit at 92.1%, Under 6.5 hit at 88.0%, and Home under 2.5 goals hit at 84.6%. The match delivered on the model’s expectations, with the favored result and most of the suggested picks coming in.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Dender win✗ Miss
16.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
17.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Union St. Gilloise win✓ Hit
66.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

DenderDender

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-542W12L22D21W22D32W21W15L01L11DH·OLY28/10A·CLU01/11H·ZUL07/11A·ANT23/11H·KVC29/11H·STA02/12A·RAA05/12H·CLU14/12H·STA20/12A·KV 27/12
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.801.441.561.212.07
vs Stronger (8)0.882.120.671.331.002.60
vs Similar (21)1.381.671.421.581.331.78
vs Weaker (1)4.002.004.002.00--
Clean sheet %13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Union St. Gilloise) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Union St. GilloiseUnion St. Gilloise

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D20W10W01L21W11D23L11D20W11DA·KV 09/11H·CER22/11A·GAL25/11A·AND30/11H·ZUL03/12H·GEN06/12H·MAR09/12A·CHA14/12H·ZUL20/12A·CER26/12
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.830.972.071.071.620.88
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)1.221.891.002.751.401.20
vs Weaker (21)2.100.572.500.401.730.73
Clean sheet %40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Dender) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%23%2%06%115%219%320%416%523%6+
The model estimates around 4.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
92.1%
Under 1.5
7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
77.5%
Under 2.5
22.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
58.4%
Under 3.5
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
69.9%
No
30.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
8.5%
1-3
7.8%
1-1
6.8%
0-2 ✓
6.3%
0-3
5.8%
2-2
5.7%
1-4
5.3%
2-3
5.2%
Dender goals ↓
Union St. Gilloise goals →
01234
02.3%4.0%6.3%5.8%4.0%
11.6%6.8%8.5%7.8%5.3%
21.5%4.2%5.7%5.2%3.6%
30.7%1.9%2.6%2.4%1.6%
40.2%0.6%0.9%0.8%0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dender goals (down), columns = Union St. Gilloise goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Aubel
3.00
Club Brugge KV
2.67
VW Hamme
2.60
Berlare
2.50
Sporting Bruxelles
2.50
Turkse Rangers
2.40
Mandel United
2.33
Albert Quévy-Mons
2.33
Berg en Dal
2.33
Aywaille
2.25
HO Kalken
2.25
Spouwen-Mopertingen
2.25
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar
2.25
RFC Wetteren
2.25
Tubize
2.25
Sparta Petegem
2.25
Biesme
2.25
Geel
2.25
Olympic Charleroi
2.25
Anderlecht
2.17
KV Mechelen
2.00
Zulte Waregem
2.00
Elsautoise
2.00
Schoonbeek-Beverst
2.00
Eendracht Termien
2.00
Knokke
2.00
Diegem Sport
2.00
Dessel Sport
2.00
Ninove
2.00
RUS Binche
2.00
DT Borsbeke
2.00
Rotselaar
2.00
Genk
2.00
Patro Eisden
2.00
St. Truiden
2.00
Rupel Boom
2.00
Betekom
2.00
Wallonne Ciney
2.00
OH Leuven
2.00
Witgoor Sport
2.00
Acren-Lessines
2.00
FC Eupen
2.00
La Louvière Centre
2.00
Onhaye
2.00
Nijlen
2.00
Etterbeek
2.00
Union St. Gilloise
2.00
RAS Monceau
2.00
Sprimont
2.00
Kortrijk
2.00
Rochefort
1.75
Houtvenne
1.75
Meux
1.75
Herent
1.75
Grand-Leez
1.75
Kosova Schaerbeek
1.75
Thes Sport
1.67
Ganshoren
1.67
Diksmuide
1.60
Antwerp
1.60
Standard Liege
1.50
SK Beveren
1.50
KVC Westerlo
1.50
Harelbeke
1.50
SG-Tertre-Hautrage
1.50
Merelbeke
1.50
Jong Lede
1.50
La Calamine
1.50
Habay-la-Neuve
1.50
Lille (Belgium)
1.50
Entité Manageoise
1.50
City Pirates Antwerpen
1.50
Jodoigne
1.50
Raeren-Eynatten
1.50
Achel
1.50
Zelzate
1.50
Marloie Sport
1.50
Londerzeel
1.50
Tempo Overijse
1.50
Gent
1.50
Sporting Hasselt
1.50
Sassport Boezinge
1.50
Haasdonk
1.50
Longlier
1.50
Sint-Denijs Sport
1.50
Condruzien
1.50
Olympia Wijgmaal
1.50
Zwarte Leeuw
1.50
Zepperen-Brustem
1.50
Westhoek
1.50
Harre-Manhay
1.50
Gosselies Sports
1.50
Wallonia Libin
1.50
Lokeren-Temse
1.50
KRC Gent
1.50
Stockay-Warfusée
1.50
Berchem Sport
1.50
Stade Verviers
1.50
Evelette-Jallet
1.50
Mormont
1.50
KBSK Retie
1.50
Huy
1.50
Cercle Brugge
1.50
Liège
1.50
Elene-Grotenberge
1.50
AS Eupen
1.50
K. Lierse S.K.
1.50
RWDM
1.50
Bocholt
1.50
Meix-Devant-Virton
1.33
Voorde Appelterre
1.33
Blankenberge
1.33
Racing Mechelen
1.33
FC Du Geer
1.33
K. Kontich
1.33
Eendracht Aalter
1.33
Beerschot VA
1.33
Saint-Vith
1.06
Eendracht Aalst
1.06
Noduwez
1.06
Verlaine II
1.06
Dessel
1.06
Molenbaix
1.06
Bioul
1.06
Wanze / Bas-Oha
1.06
Grobbendonk
1.06
Wilrijk
1.06
Marke
1.06
Club Roeselare
1.06
's Gravenwezel-Schilde
1.06
Elewijt
1.06
Latem
1.06
Fenixx BeigHum
1.06
Wanze / Bas-Oha II
1.06
La Hulpe
1.06
Eeklo Meetjesland
1.06
Ezaart Sport Mol
1.06
Messancy
1.06
Torpedo Hasselt
1.06
Le Roeulx
1.06
Herk
1.06
Ardooie
1.06
Noordstar Noorderwijk
1.06
Munkzwalm
1.06
Rochefort II
1.06
Berlaar-Heikant
1.06
Galmaarden
1.06
Luingnois
1.06
Hannut
1.06
Zonhoven United
1.06
Union Momalloise
1.06
Stade Mouscronnois
1.06
Saint-Michel
1.06
Zwevegem Sport
1.00
Heist
1.00
Hades
1.00
Landen
1.00
Oostkamp
1.00
Turnhout
1.00
Ostiches
1.00
Léopold
1.00
Denderhoutem
1.00
Tilffois
1.00
Roeselare Daisel
1.00
Flénu
1.00
Libramont
1.00
RUS Assenois
1.00
Braine
0.50
Erpe-Mere United
0.50
Wezel
0.50
Rumbeke
0.50
Seraing United
0.50
Oppagne-Wéris
0.50
Aische
0.50
RESC Houffaloise
0.50
RAAL La Louvière
0.50
Avanti
0.50
Arquet
0.50
Hoogstraten
0.00
Jette
0.00
Oudenaarde
0.00
Gullegem
0.00
Charleroi
0.00
Excelsior Virton
0.00
Crossing Schaerbeek
0.00
Tournai
0.00
Cappellen
0.00
Wambeek-Ternat
0.00
Waremme
0.00
Dender
0.00
Olsa Brakel
0.00
De Kempen
0.00
Union Namur
0.00
Tienen
0.00
Chevetogne
0.00
Bevel
0.00
PAC Buzet
0.00
Sparta Waasmunster
0.00
FC Lebbeke
0.00
Waterloo
0.00
Wellen
0.00
Lauwe
0.00
Tongeren
0.00
Esperanza Pelt
0.00
Richelle United
0.00
Meux II
0.00
Stade Everois
0.00
Pepingen-Halle
0.00
Huldenberg
0.00
Sint-Lenaarts
0.00
Antoing
0.00
Torhout
0.00
Sparta Heestert
0.00
Francs Borains
0.00
Lommel United
0.00
Drongen
0.00
KSK Beveren
0.00
Loyers
0.00
Verlaine
0.00
Dender is 2.00 points worse than Union St. Gilloise in terms of average points per game (0.00 vs 2.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Gent
4.50
Acren-Lessines
4.00
Huy
4.00
Sprimont
4.00
Ninove
3.67
Sassport Boezinge
3.50
Longlier
3.50
Berchem Sport
3.50
Mandel United
3.33
Berg en Dal
3.33
Diegem Sport
3.00
Entité Manageoise
3.00
DT Borsbeke
3.00
Zelzate
3.00
Sporting Hasselt
3.00
Gosselies Sports
3.00
Nijlen
3.00
KBSK Retie
3.00
Etterbeek
3.00
Meux II
3.00
Antoing
3.00
RWDM
3.00
KSK Beveren
3.00
Club Brugge KV
2.83
Houtvenne
2.75
Olympic Charleroi
2.75
Meix-Devant-Virton
2.67
Knokke
2.67
RUS Binche
2.67
Turkse Rangers
2.60
Antwerp
2.60
KV Mechelen
2.50
Harelbeke
2.50
RFC Wetteren
2.50
Habay-la-Neuve
2.50
Lille (Belgium)
2.50
City Pirates Antwerpen
2.50
Londerzeel
2.50
Tempo Overijse
2.50
Condruzien
2.50
Elsautoise
2.40
VW Hamme
2.40
Albert Quévy-Mons
2.33
Dessel Sport
2.33
Patro Eisden
2.33
OH Leuven
2.33
Union St. Gilloise
2.33
HO Kalken
2.25
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar
2.25
Sporting Bruxelles
2.25
Biesme
2.25
Geel
2.25
Anderlecht
2.17
Standard Liege
2.00
Aywaille
2.00
Braine
2.00
Schoonbeek-Beverst
2.00
Eendracht Termien
2.00
Spouwen-Mopertingen
2.00
Rotselaar
2.00
Oudenaarde
2.00
Sparta Petegem
2.00
Jodoigne
2.00
Turnhout
2.00
Genk
2.00
Haasdonk
2.00
Sint-Denijs Sport
2.00
Berlare
2.00
Zwarte Leeuw
2.00
Wallonne Ciney
2.00
Léopold
2.00
Stockay-Warfusée
2.00
Denderhoutem
2.00
Ganshoren
2.00
Tilffois
2.00
La Louvière Centre
2.00
Onhaye
2.00
Evelette-Jallet
2.00
Liège
2.00
FC Lebbeke
2.00
Aubel
2.00
Eendracht Aalter
2.00
Libramont
2.00
Pepingen-Halle
2.00
Tubize
1.75
Zulte Waregem
1.67
Racing Mechelen
1.67
K. Kontich
1.67
Beerschot VA
1.67
Diksmuide
1.60
SK Beveren
1.50
KVC Westerlo
1.50
Rochefort
1.50
SG-Tertre-Hautrage
1.50
Jong Lede
1.50
Achel
1.50
Marloie Sport
1.50
Olympia Wijgmaal
1.50
Westhoek
1.50
Wallonia Libin
1.50
Lokeren-Temse
1.50
Stade Verviers
1.50
Aische
1.50
Cercle Brugge
1.50
AS Eupen
1.50
K. Lierse S.K.
1.50
Bocholt
1.50
Saint-Vith
1.47
Eendracht Aalst
1.47
Noduwez
1.47
Verlaine II
1.47
Dessel
1.47
Molenbaix
1.47
Bioul
1.47
Wanze / Bas-Oha
1.47
Grobbendonk
1.47
Wilrijk
1.47
Marke
1.47
Club Roeselare
1.47
's Gravenwezel-Schilde
1.47
Elewijt
1.47
Latem
1.47
Fenixx BeigHum
1.47
Wanze / Bas-Oha II
1.47
La Hulpe
1.47
Eeklo Meetjesland
1.47
Ezaart Sport Mol
1.47
Messancy
1.47
Torpedo Hasselt
1.47
Le Roeulx
1.47
Herk
1.47
Ardooie
1.47
Noordstar Noorderwijk
1.47
Munkzwalm
1.47
Rochefort II
1.47
Berlaar-Heikant
1.47
Galmaarden
1.47
Luingnois
1.47
Hannut
1.47
Zonhoven United
1.47
Union Momalloise
1.47
Stade Mouscronnois
1.47
Saint-Michel
1.47
Thes Sport
1.33
Landen
1.33
Voorde Appelterre
1.33
Rupel Boom
1.33
Betekom
1.33
Blankenberge
1.33
FC Du Geer
1.33
FC Eupen
1.33
RAS Monceau
1.33
Herent
1.25
Merelbeke
1.00
La Calamine
1.00
Jette
1.00
Hades
1.00
Wezel
1.00
Oostkamp
1.00
Ostiches
1.00
Charleroi
1.00
St. Truiden
1.00
Excelsior Virton
1.00
Harre-Manhay
1.00
Seraing United
1.00
Dender
1.00
Witgoor Sport
1.00
KRC Gent
1.00
Grand-Leez
1.00
De Kempen
1.00
Union Namur
1.00
Tienen
1.00
Mormont
1.00
Chevetogne
1.00
PAC Buzet
1.00
RESC Houffaloise
1.00
Sparta Waasmunster
1.00
RAAL La Louvière
1.00
Waterloo
1.00
Wellen
1.00
Avanti
1.00
Esperanza Pelt
1.00
Roeselare Daisel
1.00
Richelle United
1.00
Flénu
1.00
Francs Borains
1.00
Drongen
1.00
Loyers
1.00
Meux
0.75
Kosova Schaerbeek
0.75
Raeren-Eynatten
0.50
Rumbeke
0.50
Zepperen-Brustem
0.50
Arquet
0.50
Elene-Grotenberge
0.50
Kortrijk
0.50
Zwevegem Sport
0.00
Hoogstraten
0.00
Heist
0.00
Erpe-Mere United
0.00
Gullegem
0.00
Crossing Schaerbeek
0.00
Tournai
0.00
Cappellen
0.00
Wambeek-Ternat
0.00
Waremme
0.00
Oppagne-Wéris
0.00
Olsa Brakel
0.00
Bevel
0.00
Lauwe
0.00
Tongeren
0.00
Stade Everois
0.00
Huldenberg
0.00
Sint-Lenaarts
0.00
RUS Assenois
0.00
Torhout
0.00
Sparta Heestert
0.00
Lommel United
0.00
Verlaine
0.00
Dender is 1.33 goals worse than Union St. Gilloise in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 2.33).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Zwevegem Sport
0.00
Heist
0.00
Aubel
0.00
RUS Assenois
0.00
Kortrijk
0.00
RFC Wetteren
0.25
RAS Monceau
0.33
Tempo Overijse
0.50
Sassport Boezinge
0.50
Zwarte Leeuw
0.50
Zepperen-Brustem
0.50
Kosova Schaerbeek
0.50
Cercle Brugge
0.50
Mandel United
0.67
Voorde Appelterre
0.67
Albert Quévy-Mons
0.67
Witgoor Sport
0.67
Acren-Lessines
0.67
Berlare
0.75
Herent
0.75
Biesme
0.75
Geel
0.75
VW Hamme
0.80
Genk
0.80
Club Brugge KV
0.83
Anderlecht
0.83
Hoogstraten
1.00
Schoonbeek-Beverst
1.00
Thes Sport
1.00
Hades
1.00
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar
1.00
Diksmuide
1.00
Lille (Belgium)
1.00
Oostkamp
1.00
Achel
1.00
Zelzate
1.00
Ostiches
1.00
Antwerp
1.00
Sporting Hasselt
1.00
Meux
1.00
Tournai
1.00
Rumbeke
1.00
Longlier
1.00
Cappellen
1.00
OH Leuven
1.00
Wallonia Libin
1.00
Lokeren-Temse
1.00
Sporting Bruxelles
1.00
Olsa Brakel
1.00
Onhaye
1.00
Tongeren
1.00
Roeselare Daisel
1.00
Flénu
1.00
Stade Everois
1.00
Torhout
1.00
RWDM
1.00
Lommel United
1.00
Verlaine
1.00
HO Kalken
1.25
Tubize
1.25
Grand-Leez
1.25
Diegem Sport
1.33
Ninove
1.33
Rotselaar
1.33
St. Truiden
1.33
Rupel Boom
1.33
Blankenberge
1.33
FC Du Geer
1.33
Eendracht Aalter
1.33
Beerschot VA
1.33
Elsautoise
1.40
KV Mechelen
1.50
Aywaille
1.50
Merelbeke
1.50
Erpe-Mere United
1.50
Eendracht Termien
1.50
Spouwen-Mopertingen
1.50
Habay-la-Neuve
1.50
DT Borsbeke
1.50
Wezel
1.50
Raeren-Eynatten
1.50
Marloie Sport
1.50
Gent
1.50
Olympia Wijgmaal
1.50
Oppagne-Wéris
1.50
Stade Verviers
1.50
Evelette-Jallet
1.50
KBSK Retie
1.50
Arquet
1.50
Elene-Grotenberge
1.50
Olympic Charleroi
1.50
Bocholt
1.50
Meix-Devant-Virton
1.67
Knokke
1.67
Dessel Sport
1.67
RUS Binche
1.67
Patro Eisden
1.67
Wallonne Ciney
1.67
Racing Mechelen
1.67
FC Eupen
1.67
Ganshoren
1.67
Nijlen
1.67
Berg en Dal
1.67
K. Kontich
1.67
Sparta Petegem
1.75
Turkse Rangers
1.80
Saint-Vith
1.93
Eendracht Aalst
1.93
Noduwez
1.93
Verlaine II
1.93
Dessel
1.93
Molenbaix
1.93
Bioul
1.93
Wanze / Bas-Oha
1.93
Grobbendonk
1.93
Wilrijk
1.93
Marke
1.93
Club Roeselare
1.93
's Gravenwezel-Schilde
1.93
Elewijt
1.93
Latem
1.93
Fenixx BeigHum
1.93
Wanze / Bas-Oha II
1.93
La Hulpe
1.93
Eeklo Meetjesland
1.93
Ezaart Sport Mol
1.93
Messancy
1.93
Torpedo Hasselt
1.93
Le Roeulx
1.93
Herk
1.93
Ardooie
1.93
Noordstar Noorderwijk
1.93
Munkzwalm
1.93
Rochefort II
1.93
Berlaar-Heikant
1.93
Galmaarden
1.93
Luingnois
1.93
Hannut
1.93
Zonhoven United
1.93
Union Momalloise
1.93
Stade Mouscronnois
1.93
Saint-Michel
1.93
Standard Liege
2.00
SK Beveren
2.00
SG-Tertre-Hautrage
2.00
Jette
2.00
Houtvenne
2.00
Gullegem
2.00
Turnhout
2.00
Londerzeel
2.00
Crossing Schaerbeek
2.00
Betekom
2.00
Sint-Denijs Sport
2.00
Wambeek-Ternat
2.00
Condruzien
2.00
Westhoek
2.00
Léopold
2.00
Waremme
2.00
Seraing United
2.00
Dender
2.00
KRC Gent
2.00
Stockay-Warfusée
2.00
Denderhoutem
2.00
Tilffois
2.00
La Louvière Centre
2.00
Tienen
2.00
Bevel
2.00
PAC Buzet
2.00
Liège
2.00
Sparta Waasmunster
2.00
RAAL La Louvière
2.00
Sprimont
2.00
Avanti
2.00
Esperanza Pelt
2.00
Richelle United
2.00
Libramont
2.00
Sint-Lenaarts
2.00
Francs Borains
2.00
K. Lierse S.K.
2.00
Drongen
2.00
Loyers
2.00
Rochefort
2.25
Zulte Waregem
2.33
Union St. Gilloise
2.33
KVC Westerlo
2.50
Harelbeke
2.50
Braine
2.50
Jong Lede
2.50
Entité Manageoise
2.50
Harre-Manhay
2.50
Etterbeek
2.50
AS Eupen
2.50
Landen
2.67
La Calamine
3.00
City Pirates Antwerpen
3.00
Oudenaarde
3.00
Jodoigne
3.00
Excelsior Virton
3.00
Haasdonk
3.00
Union Namur
3.00
Mormont
3.00
Chevetogne
3.00
Huy
3.00
FC Lebbeke
3.00
Waterloo
3.00
Lauwe
3.00
Pepingen-Halle
3.00
Gosselies Sports
3.50
Berchem Sport
3.50
Aische
3.50
RESC Houffaloise
3.50
Charleroi
4.00
De Kempen
4.00
Meux II
4.00
Huldenberg
4.00
KSK Beveren
4.00
Antoing
5.00
Wellen
6.00
Sparta Heestert
7.00
Dender is 0.33 goals better than Union St. Gilloise in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 2.33).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Dender or Draw✗ Miss
33.8%
Avg Implied -
16%
18%
66%
covers Dender + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dender or Union St. Gilloise✓ Hit
82.2%
Avg Implied -
16%
18%
66%
covers Dender + Union St. Gilloise
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Union St. Gilloise✓ Hit
84.0%
Avg Implied -
16%
18%
66%
covers Draw + Union St. Gilloise
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Dender over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
74.0%
Under
26.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dender over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
39.0%
Under
61.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dender over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
15.4%
Under
84.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dender over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.8%
Under
95.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Union St. Gilloise over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
93.6%
Under
6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Union St. Gilloise over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
75.9%
Under
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Union St. Gilloise over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
51.7%
Under
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Union St. Gilloise over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
29.6%
Under
70.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Dender, so a minus line means Dender give that many goals of a start and Union St. Gilloise receive them. At -1, Dender must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Dender win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Dender)Actual: Union St. Gilloise
Dender -2
2.2%
Draw -2
4.5%
Union St. Gilloise +2
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Dender)Actual: Union St. Gilloise
Dender -1
6.7%
Draw -1
9.3%
Union St. Gilloise +1
84.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Dender)Actual: Union St. Gilloise
Dender +1
33.8%
Draw +1
19.6%
Union St. Gilloise -1
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Dender)Actual: Draw
Dender +2
53.5%
Draw +2
18.7%
Union St. Gilloise -2
27.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

DenderDender

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L02L10W00D10W22D11D11D01L01LH·OLY28/10A·CLU01/11H·ZUL07/11A·ANT23/11H·KVC29/11H·STA02/12A·RAA05/12H·CLU14/12H·STA20/12A·KV 27/12
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.770.750.620.360.93
vs Stronger (8)0.120.620.000.330.200.80
vs Similar (21)0.760.811.000.670.441.00
vs Weaker (1)0.001.000.001.00--
Clean sheet %40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Union St. Gilloise) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Union St. GilloiseUnion St. Gilloise

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W00D01L01L01L12L10W10W11DA·KV 09/11H·CER22/11A·GAL25/11A·AND30/11H·ZUL03/12H·GEN06/12H·MAR09/12A·CHA14/12H·ZUL20/12A·CER26/12
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.470.640.710.690.25
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.560.890.501.500.600.40
vs Weaker (21)0.710.290.700.400.730.18
Clean sheet %63% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Dender) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dender over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dender over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dender over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Union St. Gilloise over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Union St. Gilloise over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Union St. Gilloise over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

DenderDender

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-441W10W12L21W12L10W10W04L00D10WH·OLY28/10A·CLU01/11H·ZUL07/11A·ANT23/11H·KVC29/11H·STA02/12A·RAA05/12H·CLU14/12H·STA20/12A·KV 27/12
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.771.030.690.940.861.14
vs Stronger (8)0.751.500.671.000.801.80
vs Similar (21)0.620.860.420.920.890.78
vs Weaker (1)4.001.004.001.00--
Clean sheet %40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Union St. Gilloise) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Union St. GilloiseUnion St. Gilloise

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D10W10W00D20W10W11D01L10W00DA·KV 09/11H·CER22/11A·GAL25/11A·AND30/11H·ZUL03/12H·GEN06/12H·MAR09/12A·CHA14/12H·ZUL20/12A·CER26/12
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.170.501.430.360.940.62
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.671.000.501.250.800.80
vs Weaker (21)1.380.291.800.001.000.55
Clean sheet %63% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Dender) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dender over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dender over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dender over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Union St. Gilloise over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Union St. Gilloise over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Union St. Gilloise over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Home under 3.5 goals95.2%-------✓ Hit
Under 7.594.3%-------✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals93.6%-------✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap93.3%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.592.1%-------✓ Hit
Under 6.588.0%-------✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals84.6%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards84.3%--------
Over 19.5 fouls84.2%--------
Draw or Away84.0%-------✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap84.0%-------✓ Hit
Home or Away82.2%-------✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners82.0%--------
Over 2.577.5%-------✗ Miss
Under 5.577.1%-------✓ Hit
Away over 1.5 goals75.9%-------✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals74.0%-------✗ Miss
Under 10.5 corners72.7%--------
Over 21.5 fouls71.7%--------
Away under 3.5 goals70.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 13. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (33)
€274m
GEN (59)
€182m
USG (35)
€163m
AND (34)
€126m
ANT (35)
€97m
KW (33)
€66m
GEN (46)
€62m
SL (34)
€57m
ST (25)
€53m
KM (30)
€51m
CB (28)
€44m
CHA (58)
€44m
ZW (32)
€32m
DEN (31)
€24m
RLL (28)
€22m
SB (26)
€15m
BV (31)
€13m
KOR (24)
€13m
LU (28)
€13m
PE (22)
€6m
Dender's squad is €140m less valuable than Union St. Gilloise's (€24m vs €163m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (13)
€130m
GEN (26)
€106m
USG (12)
€59m
AND (11)
€46m
KW (13)
€32m
ST (11)
€29m
GEN (17)
€24m
ANT (11)
€17m
ZW (12)
€16m
SL (10)
€16m
CB (9)
€14m
KM (10)
€12m
CHA (19)
€11m
SB (12)
€8m
RLL (11)
€8m
DEN (8)
€7m
LU (11)
€7m
KOR (10)
€6m
BV (12)
€4m
PE (7)
€2m
Dender's attack is €52m less valuable than Union St. Gilloise's (€7m vs €59m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
USG (11)
€69m
CBK (6)
€65m
AND (6)
€38m
ANT (9)
€24m
GEN (12)
€21m
GEN (8)
€20m
CHA (10)
€14m
KW (7)
€11m
ST (4)
€10m
CB (7)
€9m
SL (8)
€9m
ZW (7)
€8m
KM (7)
€7m
DEN (9)
€7m
RLL (6)
€5m
SB (4)
€2m
KOR (4)
€2m
BV (6)
€2m
LU (5)
€2m
PE (4)
€1m
Dender's midfield is €62m less valuable than Union St. Gilloise's (€7m vs €69m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (14)
€79m
ANT (15)
€57m
GEN (25)
€56m
AND (17)
€42m
USG (12)
€35m
SL (16)
€32m
KM (13)
€32m
KW (13)
€23m
CB (12)
€22m
CHA (29)
€19m
GEN (17)
€16m
ST (10)
€13m
DEN (14)
€10m
RLL (11)
€9m
ZW (13)
€8m
BV (13)
€7m
KOR (10)
€5m
SB (10)
€4m
LU (12)
€4m
PE (11)
€3m
Dender's defence is €26m less valuable than Union St. Gilloise's (€10m vs €35m).

🤝 14. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
0
DEN wins
1
Draws
2
USG wins

Head-to-head

Dender vs Union St. Gilloise · H/A from DEN
DateH/AGameScore
13/09/25HDEN Vs Union St. Gilloise0-1
01/03/25AUnion St. Gilloise Vs DEN4-1
27/07/24HDEN Vs Union St. Gilloise0-0

DenderDender

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/12/25AKV Mechelen Vs DEN1-1
20/12/25HDEN Vs Standard Liege0-1
14/12/25HDEN Vs Club Brugge KV1-5
05/12/25ARAAL La Louvière Vs DEN1-2
02/12/25HDEN Vs Standard Liege3-2
29/11/25HDEN Vs KVC Westerlo2-2
23/11/25AAntwerp Vs DEN1-2
07/11/25HDEN Vs Zulte Waregem2-2
01/11/25AClub Brugge KV Vs DEN2-1
28/10/25HDEN Vs Olympic Charleroi4-2

Union St. GilloiseUnion St. Gilloise

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/12/25ACercle Brugge Vs USG1-1
20/12/25HUSG Vs Zulte Waregem2-0
14/12/25ACharleroi Vs USG1-1
09/12/25HUSG Vs Marseille2-3
06/12/25HUSG Vs Gent1-1
03/12/25HUSG Vs Zulte Waregem2-1
30/11/25AAnderlecht Vs USG1-0
25/11/25AGalatasaray Vs USG0-1
22/11/25HUSG Vs Cercle Brugge2-0
09/11/25AKV Mechelen Vs USG1-1

📊 15. Overall Statistics

Dender
Dender
Belgium: Cup
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLLD0.96
HomeDDWLL1.20
AwayDLWWD0.72
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%28%16%
AVG goals3.002.443.56
Over 1.5 %74%56%92%
Over 2.5 %56%44%68%
Over 3.5 %38%36%40%
Scored1.201.161.24
Conceded1.801.282.32
BTTS60%48%72%
Clean Sheet18%28%8%
Corners8.628.268.96
Cards3.493.523.46
Union St. Gilloise
Union St. Gilloise
Belgium: Cup
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLDWD2.12
HomeWWDLW2.21
AwayDWLDD2.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %66%71%62%
AVG goals2.722.922.54
Over 1.5 %80%88%73%
Over 2.5 %54%54%54%
Over 3.5 %28%33%23%
Scored1.862.001.73
Conceded0.860.920.81
BTTS46%38%54%
Clean Sheet42%46%38%
Corners9.008.789.20
Cards5.155.265.04

🏆 16. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Club Brugge KVClub Brugge KV4088
70%
2.2
9145+46
3.4
78%
65%
35%
11.0
68%
3.9
49%
20.9
45%
274
13065792.31.1
60%
2Union St. GilloiseUnion St. Gilloise4086
62%
2.1
6627+39
2.3
70%
40%
20%
9.4
55%
4.9
71%
21.6
52%
163
5969351.60.7
52%
3St. TruidenSt. Truiden4071
55%
1.8
6146+15
2.7
80%
55%
25%
10.2
68%
4.0
54%
21.4
52%
53
2910131.51.1
55%
4GenkGenk4160
37%
1.5
5854+4
2.7
83%
54%
15%
9.8
49%
3.8
50%
22.2
54%
182
10620561.41.3
58%
5Standard LiegeStandard Liege4057
40%
1.4
4446-2
2.2
72%
45%
12%
10.0
45%
4.5
68%
22.3
52%
57
169321.11.1
44%
6AnderlechtAnderlecht4055
38%
1.4
5962-3
3.0
75%
52%
45%
10.5
70%
5.3
72%
24.6
78%
126
4638421.51.6
53%
7GentGent4152
32%
1.3
5458-4
2.7
80%
49%
34%
10.4
59%
3.7
45%
21.5
44%
62
2421161.31.4
49%
8KVC WesterloKVC Westerlo4052
35%
1.3
5057-7
2.7
78%
42%
22%
10.2
57%
3.9
60%
23.7
68%
66
3211231.21.4
49%
9CharleroiCharleroi4051
35%
1.3
5050+0
2.5
78%
40%
22%
10.7
57%
4.0
54%
22.1
55%
44
1114191.21.2
50%
10KV MechelenKV Mechelen4051
32%
1.3
4861-13
2.7
75%
48%
32%
10.3
50%
4.2
57%
22.4
50%
51
127321.21.5
49%
11Zulte WaregemZulte Waregem3648
36%
1.3
5353+0
2.9
81%
53%
36%
9.8
50%
3.6
39%
23.1
61%
32
16881.51.5
48%
12AntwerpAntwerp4048
32%
1.2
4348-5
2.3
72%
40%
15%
9.3
50%
4.5
60%
24.6
75%
97
1724571.11.2
49%
13Cercle BruggeCercle Brugge3641
28%
1.1
5358-5
3.1
89%
58%
36%
10.8
69%
3.7
50%
22.8
61%
44
149221.51.6
48%
14OH LeuvenOH Leuven4040
25%
1.0
4160-19
2.5
75%
45%
25%
11.1
68%
5.1
68%
25.6
72%
0
0001.01.5
46%
15RAAL La LouvièreRAAL La Louvière3634
19%
0.9
3550-15
2.4
64%
47%
22%
9.4
50%
3.6
49%
23.6
67%
22
8591.01.4
39%
16DenderDender3826
13%
0.7
3365-32
2.6
71%
55%
29%
9.5
47%
3.8
53%
22.1
55%
24
77100.91.7
48%
17Lommel UnitedLommel United616
83%
2.7
145+9
3.2
83%
83%
50%
11.0
83%
3.8
50%
23.2
50%
13
7242.30.8
45%
18Beerschot VABeerschot VA44
25%
1.0
69-3
3.8
100%
75%
75%
9.5
50%
4.8
75%
26.5
100%
13
4271.52.2
64%
19Patro EisdenPatro Eisden21
0%
0.5
34-1
3.5
100%
50%
50%
7.5
0%
5.5
100%
27.0
100%
6
2131.52.0
29%
20LiègeLiège20
0%
0.0
15-4
3.0
100%
100%
0%
10.0
50%
3.0
0%
21.0
0%
0
0000.52.5
56%
Belgium: Jupiler Pro League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belgium: Jupiler Pro League stats & trends →

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