This opponent (Shamrock Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shamrock Rovers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.27
1.53
1.07
1.00
1.47
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
3.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (16)
1.12
1.12
1.29
1.14
1.00
1.11
vs Weaker (10)
1.80
0.80
2.33
0.67
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Derry City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.9%
Under 1.5
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.1%
Under 2.5
59.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.8%
Under 3.5
80.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
46.7%
No
53.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 â
14.2%
1-0
12.2%
0-0
11.4%
2-0
8.9%
2-1
8.6%
0-1
8.5%
1-2
6.2%
0-2
4.7%
Derry City goals ↓
Shamrock Rovers goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
8.5%
4.7%
1.5%
0.4%
1
12%
14%
6.2%
2.0%
0.5%
2
8.9%
8.6%
4.1%
1.3%
0.3%
3
3.9%
3.8%
1.8%
0.6%
0.1%
4
1.3%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Derry City goals (down), columns = Shamrock Rovers goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Shelbourne
1.75
Shamrock Rovers
1.69
St Patrick's Athl.
1.64
Derry City
1.53
Galway United
1.44
Sligo Rovers
1.36
Waterford
1.25
Bohemians
1.17
Drogheda United
1.00
Dundalk
0.72
Bray Wanderers
0.00
Derry City is 0.17 points worse than Shamrock Rovers in terms of average points per game (1.53 vs 1.69).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
St Patrick's Athl.
1.42
Shamrock Rovers
1.39
Derry City
1.33
Waterford
1.19
Drogheda United
1.19
Shelbourne
1.11
Sligo Rovers
1.11
Bohemians
1.08
Bray Wanderers
1.00
Galway United
0.92
Dundalk
0.64
Derry City is 0.06 goals worse than Shamrock Rovers in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.39).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shelbourne
0.75
Galway United
0.81
Derry City
0.86
Shamrock Rovers
0.97
St Patrick's Athl.
1.03
Bohemians
1.19
Waterford
1.31
Dundalk
1.39
Sligo Rovers
1.42
Drogheda United
1.59
Bray Wanderers
3.00
Derry City is 0.11 goals better than Shamrock Rovers in terms of goals conceded per game (0.86 vs 0.97).
âąïļ Possession
Avg possession %
Shamrock Rovers
62%
Derry City
56%
Shelbourne
53%
St Patrick's Athl.
53%
Bohemians
52%
Waterford
50%
Dundalk
48%
Sligo Rovers
48%
Drogheda United
39%
Galway United
39%
Derry City is 6.2 percentage points worse than Shamrock Rovers in terms of average possession (56% vs 62%).
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Derry City
For 6.0 · Against 3.5 · Total 9.5
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 3.9 · Total 5.9
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.2 · Against 13.8 · Total 24.0
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Shamrock Rovers
For 5.3 · Against 4.6 · Total 9.9
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.3 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.9
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 10.1 · Total 21.6
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Derry City
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
10.1
9.2
4.7
4.3
5.1
24.1
23.5
24.7
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (37)
9.7
9.9
9.5
4.5
4.2
4.8
24.1
23.6
24.5
vs Weaker (13)
9.4
10.6
8.3
5.2
4.7
5.7
24.4
23.2
25.3
% over line
48%
52%
44%
68%
67%
69%
68%
59%
76%
% under line
52%
48%
56%
32%
33%
31%
32%
41%
24%
This opponent (Shamrock Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shamrock Rovers
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
9.9
10.7
4.7
4.5
4.9
23.3
22.4
24.2
vs Stronger (6)
10.0
9.0
12.0
2.8
1.3
4.3
18.0
19.0
16.0
vs Similar (25)
11.0
10.6
11.3
5.4
5.5
5.4
24.1
22.8
25.2
vs Weaker (19)
9.6
9.5
9.6
4.4
4.4
4.4
23.2
22.6
23.9
% over line
60%
55%
67%
66%
64%
68%
60%
59%
62%
% under line
40%
45%
33%
34%
36%
32%
40%
41%
38%
This opponent (Derry City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Bohemians
11.0
Shamrock Rovers
10.3
Waterford
10.1
St Patrick's Athl.
9.9
Derry City
9.7
Galway United
9.5
Sligo Rovers
9.2
Drogheda United
9.2
Shelbourne
8.7
Dundalk
8.6
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Shelbourne
6.2
Bohemians
5.7
St Patrick's Athl.
5.6
Waterford
5.4
Sligo Rovers
5.3
Dundalk
5.2
Derry City
5.2
Shamrock Rovers
4.9
Galway United
4.7
Drogheda United
4.4
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Sligo Rovers
26.3
Shelbourne
25.9
St Patrick's Athl.
25.7
Dundalk
25.4
Galway United
24.9
Waterford
24.8
Bohemians
24.8
Derry City
24.2
Shamrock Rovers
23.3
Drogheda United
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
58.0%
Under 9.5
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
78.0%
Under 3.5
22.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
65.4%
Under 21.5
34.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Derry City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.23
0.71
0.21
0.25
0.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.39
0.17
0.64
0.09
0.17
0.25
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
0.43
1.00
0.67
0.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
77% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Shamrock Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shamrock Rovers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.40
0.93
0.33
0.47
0.47
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (16)
0.69
0.38
0.86
0.29
0.56
0.44
vs Weaker (10)
0.90
0.20
1.33
0.33
0.25
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Derry City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Derry City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shamrock Rovers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shamrock Rovers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shamrock Rovers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Derry City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.60
1.43
0.64
0.50
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.91
0.52
1.27
0.73
0.58
0.33
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
0.86
2.00
0.33
0.25
1.25
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Shamrock Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shamrock Rovers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.87
0.60
0.73
0.53
1.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
2.00
0.00
1.50
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (16)
0.44
0.75
0.43
0.86
0.44
0.67
vs Weaker (10)
0.90
0.60
1.00
0.33
0.75
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Derry City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Derry City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shamrock Rovers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shamrock Rovers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shamrock Rovers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 3.5
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 3.5 cards
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð― 13. Player market rates
Derry City
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Pat Hoban40%
William Patching22%
Danny Mullen19%
Michael Duffy17%
Colm Whelan11%
Paul McMullan9%
Ronan Boyce7%
Cameron Dummigan7%
Sadou Diallo5%
Ciaran Coll4%
Daniel Kelly4%
Ben Doherty4%
Mark Connolly3%
Adam O'Reilly3%
Andre Wisdom0%
Jacob Davenport0%
Patrick McEleney0%
Ciaron Harkin0%
Brian Maher0%
Sam Todd0%
Shane McEleney0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Cameron McJannett0%
Sean Robertson0%
Sean Patton0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mark Connolly31%
Adam O'Reilly26%
Pat Hoban20%
Sam Todd20%
Paul McMullan17%
Jacob Davenport17%
Ciaran Coll17%
Sean Robertson17%
William Patching16%
Sadou Diallo15%
Michael Duffy13%
Andre Wisdom12%
Danny Mullen10%
Cameron McJannett10%
Brian Maher9%
Daniel Kelly8%
Ben Doherty8%
Shane McEleney5%
Ronan Boyce3%
Cameron Dummigan0%
Patrick McEleney0%
Ciaron Harkin0%
Colm Whelan0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Sean Patton0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jacob Davenport17%
Michael Duffy17%
Paul McMullan14%
William Patching12%
Daniel Kelly12%
Pat Hoban10%
Cameron McJannett10%
Patrick McEleney8%
Ben Doherty8%
Cameron Dummigan7%
Danny Mullen6%
Mark Connolly6%
Andre Wisdom0%
Adam O'Reilly0%
Ciaran Coll0%
Ciaron Harkin0%
Brian Maher0%
Sam Todd0%
Shane McEleney0%
Colm Whelan0%
Ronan Boyce0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Sadou Diallo0%
Sean Robertson0%
Sean Patton0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Pat Hoban30%
Michael Duffy17%
William Patching16%
Paul McMullan11%
Colm Whelan11%
Danny Mullen10%
Daniel Kelly8%
Cameron McJannett5%
Andre Wisdom0%
Adam O'Reilly0%
Jacob Davenport0%
Mark Connolly0%
Cameron Dummigan0%
Patrick McEleney0%
Ciaran Coll0%
Ciaron Harkin0%
Brian Maher0%
Sam Todd0%
Shane McEleney0%
Ben Doherty0%
Ronan Boyce0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Sadou Diallo0%
Sean Robertson0%
Sean Patton0%
Shamrock Rovers
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Johnny Kenny46%
Aaron Greene17%
Dylan Watts16%
Graham Burke16%
Darragh Burns15%
Rory Gaffney12%
Cory O'Sullivan12%
Neil Farrugia11%
Marc McNulty10%
Sean Hoare8%
Richie Towell7%
Daniel Mandroiu7%
Markus Poom6%
Joshua Honohan5%
Jack Byrne4%
Darragh Nugent3%
Dan Cleary3%
Roberto Lopes2%
Leon Pohls0%
Lee Grace0%
Sean Kavanagh0%
Trevor Clarke0%
Aaron McEneff0%
Gary O'Neill0%
Conan Noonan0%
Cian Barrett0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Rory Gaffney38%
Dan Cleary34%
Roberto Lopes27%
Richie Towell27%
Markus Poom26%
Dylan Watts24%
Lee Grace23%
Joshua Honohan21%
Trevor Clarke21%
Graham Burke19%
Johnny Kenny17%
Gary O'Neill17%
Conan Noonan14%
Daniel Mandroiu13%
Aaron McEneff12%
Darragh Nugent12%
Leon Pohls12%
Darragh Burns12%
Marc McNulty10%
Sean Hoare8%
Sean Kavanagh8%
Aaron Greene8%
Jack Byrne8%
Neil Farrugia7%
Cory O'Sullivan0%
Cian Barrett0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Conan Noonan19%
Dylan Watts19%
Darragh Burns18%
Neil Farrugia15%
Graham Burke12%
Jack Byrne12%
Markus Poom10%
Johnny Kenny9%
Daniel Mandroiu7%
Darragh Nugent6%
Aaron Greene6%
Trevor Clarke4%
Gary O'Neill3%
Dan Cleary3%
Joshua Honohan2%
Rory Gaffney0%
Richie Towell0%
Marc McNulty0%
Sean Hoare0%
Leon Pohls0%
Lee Grace0%
Sean Kavanagh0%
Roberto Lopes0%
Aaron McEneff0%
Cory O'Sullivan0%
Cian Barrett0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Johnny Kenny40%
Graham Burke31%
Rory Gaffney25%
Marc McNulty20%
Darragh Burns18%
Cory O'Sullivan12%
Sean Hoare8%
Dylan Watts8%
Aaron Greene6%
Trevor Clarke4%
Neil Farrugia4%
Dan Cleary3%
Joshua Honohan2%
Richie Towell0%
Jack Byrne0%
Markus Poom0%
Leon Pohls0%
Lee Grace0%
Sean Kavanagh0%
Roberto Lopes0%
Aaron McEneff0%
Darragh Nugent0%
Daniel Mandroiu0%
Gary O'Neill0%
Conan Noonan0%
Cian Barrett0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (31)
€7m
SPA (22)
€5m
BOH (23)
€4m
DC (22)
€4m
SHE (22)
€4m
DU (19)
€3m
SR (21)
€3m
DUN (20)
€3m
GU (21)
€3m
WAT (19)
€2m
BW (1)
€0m
Derry City's squad is €3m less valuable than Shamrock Rovers's (€4m vs €7m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (14)
€3m
SPA (6)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (7)
€1m
SHE (8)
€1m
SR (10)
€1m
WAT (6)
€1m
DU (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
DUN (3)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
Derry City's attack is €2m less valuable than Shamrock Rovers's (€1m vs €3m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (7)
€2m
SPA (7)
€1m
DC (6)
€1m
BOH (5)
€1m
SHE (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (5)
€1m
DUN (6)
€1m
SR (3)
€1m
DU (4)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
Derry City and Shamrock Rovers have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (10)
€2m
SPA (9)
€2m
DU (11)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (9)
€2m
DUN (11)
€2m
SHE (10)
€2m
SR (8)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (8)
€1m
BW (0)
€0m
Derry City and Shamrock Rovers have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Ireland: Premier Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: Premier Division stats & trends →
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Shelbourne
St Patrick's Athl.
Galway United
Sligo Rovers
Waterford
Bohemians
Drogheda United
Dundalk
Bray Wanderers