This opponent (Notts County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Notts County
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.43
1.81
1.56
1.79
1.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
2.29
1.86
2.29
2.29
2.29
1.43
vs Weaker (16)
1.38
1.06
1.44
1.00
1.29
1.14
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Doncaster) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.9%
Under 1.5
17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
60.4%
@ 1.65+3.6%
Under 2.5
39.6%
@ 2.17-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
38.0%
Under 3.5
62.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
63.5%
No
36.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
11.8%
1-2
8.5%
2-1
8.3%
2-2
6.5%
0-1
5.9%
1-0
5.7%
0-2
5.5%
0-0
5.5%
Doncaster goals ↓
Notts County goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.5%
5.9%
5.5%
2.9%
1.1%
1
5.7%
12%
8.5%
4.5%
1.8%
2
5.2%
8.3%
6.5%
3.4%
1.4%
3
2.7%
4.3%
3.4%
1.8%
0.7%
4
1.0%
1.6%
1.3%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Doncaster goals (down), columns = Notts County goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Doncaster
1.83
Port Vale
1.74
Bradford
1.70
Walsall
1.67
AFC Wimbledon
1.59
Notts County
1.57
Chesterfield
1.52
Salford
1.50
Grimsby
1.48
Colchester
1.46
Bromley
1.43
Swindon
1.35
Crewe
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.30
Cheltenham
1.30
Barrow
1.28
Gillingham
1.26
Harrogate
1.15
Milton Keynes Dons
1.13
Tranmere
1.11
Accrington
1.09
Newport County
1.07
Carlisle
0.91
Morecambe
0.78
Doncaster is 0.26 points better than Notts County in terms of average points per game (1.83 vs 1.57).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Walsall
1.63
Doncaster
1.59
Chesterfield
1.59
Swindon
1.54
Notts County
1.48
Port Vale
1.41
Bromley
1.39
Bradford
1.39
Salford
1.39
Grimsby
1.33
Fleetwood Town
1.30
Cheltenham
1.30
AFC Wimbledon
1.22
Accrington
1.15
Colchester
1.13
Milton Keynes Dons
1.13
Newport County
1.13
Barrow
1.13
Crewe
1.07
Tranmere
0.98
Carlisle
0.96
Harrogate
0.93
Gillingham
0.89
Morecambe
0.87
Doncaster is 0.11 goals better than Notts County in terms of goals scored per game (1.59 vs 1.48).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
AFC Wimbledon
0.76
Bradford
0.98
Port Vale
1.00
Gillingham
1.00
Colchester
1.02
Crewe
1.04
Notts County
1.07
Doncaster
1.09
Barrow
1.09
Walsall
1.17
Salford
1.17
Chesterfield
1.17
Bromley
1.28
Fleetwood Town
1.30
Harrogate
1.33
Swindon
1.37
Tranmere
1.41
Milton Keynes Dons
1.43
Grimsby
1.46
Accrington
1.50
Cheltenham
1.52
Carlisle
1.54
Morecambe
1.57
Newport County
1.65
Doncaster is 0.02 goals worse than Notts County in terms of goals conceded per game (1.09 vs 1.07).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Notts County
62%
Chesterfield
61%
Milton Keynes Dons
60%
Carlisle
53%
Swindon
52%
Salford
52%
Doncaster
52%
Tranmere
52%
Colchester
51%
Port Vale
51%
Bradford
51%
Crewe
50%
AFC Wimbledon
49%
Gillingham
49%
Grimsby
49%
Fleetwood Town
47%
Barrow
47%
Newport County
47%
Cheltenham
45%
Morecambe
45%
Accrington
45%
Walsall
44%
Harrogate
43%
Bromley
42%
Doncaster is 10.5 percentage points worse than Notts County in terms of average possession (52% vs 62%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Doncaster
For 7.2 · Against 5.1 · Total 12.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 10.5 · Total 21.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Notts County
For 5.1 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.1 · Against 13.2 · Total 23.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Doncaster
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
10.4
10.9
4.0
3.9
4.1
23.5
22.5
24.5
vs Stronger (3)
10.5
10.5
-
2.7
4.0
0.0
24.5
24.5
-
vs Similar (42)
10.9
10.6
11.2
4.0
3.7
4.2
23.2
22.1
24.1
vs Weaker (5)
8.6
9.3
7.5
4.8
4.7
5.0
25.6
23.7
28.5
% over line
64%
65%
62%
58%
57%
59%
64%
57%
71%
% under line
36%
35%
38%
42%
43%
41%
36%
43%
29%
This opponent (Notts County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Notts County
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
10.8
10.9
4.1
4.2
4.0
20.2
20.0
20.5
vs Stronger (2)
16.0
17.0
15.0
4.0
5.0
3.0
18.0
21.0
15.0
vs Similar (23)
10.4
10.8
10.0
4.3
3.8
5.0
19.6
19.0
20.2
vs Weaker (25)
10.8
10.3
11.4
3.9
4.6
3.2
21.0
20.8
21.3
% over line
65%
64%
65%
58%
62%
54%
35%
32%
39%
% under line
35%
36%
35%
42%
38%
46%
65%
68%
61%
This opponent (Doncaster) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Bromley
11.3
Port Vale
11.1
Tranmere
11.1
Fleetwood Town
11.0
Harrogate
10.9
Morecambe
10.7
Notts County
10.7
Doncaster
10.5
Grimsby
10.5
Walsall
10.4
Swindon
10.3
Crewe
10.3
Accrington
10.2
Chesterfield
10.1
Bradford
10.1
Colchester
10.0
Newport County
9.8
Carlisle
9.7
Salford
9.7
Cheltenham
9.7
Gillingham
9.6
Barrow
9.4
AFC Wimbledon
9.3
Milton Keynes Dons
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bradford
4.6
Salford
4.6
Crewe
4.4
Colchester
4.4
AFC Wimbledon
4.4
Cheltenham
4.3
Notts County
4.3
Doncaster
4.3
Barrow
4.3
Tranmere
4.3
Milton Keynes Dons
4.2
Morecambe
4.2
Port Vale
4.2
Gillingham
4.2
Fleetwood Town
4.1
Chesterfield
4.0
Accrington
3.8
Grimsby
3.8
Bromley
3.7
Walsall
3.6
Newport County
3.6
Carlisle
3.5
Swindon
3.4
Harrogate
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cheltenham
24.8
Accrington
24.8
Grimsby
23.8
Milton Keynes Dons
23.5
AFC Wimbledon
23.5
Salford
23.5
Doncaster
23.5
Chesterfield
23.4
Bradford
23.3
Bromley
22.9
Barrow
22.6
Crewe
22.4
Newport County
22.3
Colchester
22.1
Morecambe
21.9
Fleetwood Town
21.8
Walsall
21.3
Gillingham
21.2
Port Vale
21.0
Swindon
20.7
Carlisle
20.5
Notts County
20.3
Tranmere
20.1
Harrogate
20.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
59.0%
Under 9.5
41.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
49.5%
Under 3.5
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
70.8%
Under 21.5
29.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Doncaster
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.33
0.62
0.31
0.88
0.35
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.76
0.40
0.60
0.40
0.87
0.40
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Notts County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Notts County
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.73
0.56
0.88
0.93
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.86
1.07
0.71
1.43
1.00
0.71
vs Weaker (16)
0.62
0.44
0.44
0.44
0.86
0.43
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Doncaster) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Doncaster over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Doncaster over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Doncaster over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Notts County over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Notts County over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Notts County over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Doncaster
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.67
1.15
0.38
0.88
0.88
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (25)
1.08
0.68
1.30
0.50
0.93
0.80
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Notts County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Notts County
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.70
1.25
0.69
0.86
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.43
0.79
1.57
0.86
1.29
0.71
vs Weaker (16)
0.75
0.62
1.00
0.56
0.43
0.71
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Doncaster) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Doncaster over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Doncaster over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Doncaster over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Notts County over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Notts County over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Notts County over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Doncaster
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Luke Molyneux33%
Billy Sharp33%
Jordan Gibson0%
Jack Senior0%
Joe Ironside0%
Joseph Olowu0%
Owen Bailey0%
George Broadbent0%
Thomas Nixon0%
Patrick Kelly0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jack Senior67%
Jordan Gibson0%
Luke Molyneux0%
Billy Sharp0%
Joe Ironside0%
Joseph Olowu0%
Owen Bailey0%
George Broadbent0%
Thomas Nixon0%
Patrick Kelly0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jordan Gibson33%
Jack Senior0%
Luke Molyneux0%
Billy Sharp0%
Joe Ironside0%
Joseph Olowu0%
Owen Bailey0%
George Broadbent0%
Thomas Nixon0%
Patrick Kelly0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Owen Bailey33%
Jordan Gibson0%
Jack Senior0%
Luke Molyneux0%
Billy Sharp0%
Joe Ironside0%
Joseph Olowu0%
George Broadbent0%
Thomas Nixon0%
Patrick Kelly0%
Notts County · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Callum Roberts67%
Oliver Cooper33%
James Gibbons0%
James Belshaw0%
Qamaruddin Kouhyar0%
Jacob Bedeau0%
Conor Grant0%
Nick Tsaroulla0%
Jack Evans0%
Lucas Ness0%
Darius Lipsiuc0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
James Gibbons33%
Jack Evans33%
Darius Lipsiuc33%
Callum Roberts0%
James Belshaw0%
Qamaruddin Kouhyar0%
Jacob Bedeau0%
Conor Grant0%
Oliver Cooper0%
Nick Tsaroulla0%
Lucas Ness0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nick Tsaroulla100%
Callum Roberts0%
James Gibbons0%
James Belshaw0%
Qamaruddin Kouhyar0%
Jacob Bedeau0%
Conor Grant0%
Oliver Cooper0%
Jack Evans0%
Lucas Ness0%
Darius Lipsiuc0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Callum Roberts0%
James Gibbons0%
James Belshaw0%
Qamaruddin Kouhyar0%
Jacob Bedeau0%
Conor Grant0%
Oliver Cooper0%
Nick Tsaroulla0%
Jack Evans0%
Lucas Ness0%
Darius Lipsiuc0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MKD (24)
€15m
SAL (26)
€8m
BRA (21)
€7m
PV (23)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
NC (24)
€6m
CHE (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BRO (19)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
CAR (1)
€0m
MOR (1)
€0m
Doncaster and Notts County have a similar squad value (both €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MKD (8)
€5m
BRA (9)
€3m
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Doncaster and Notts County have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MKD (6)
€7m
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
BRO (6)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
BAR (5)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
MOR (1)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
Doncaster and Notts County have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Doncaster's defence is €1m more valuable than Notts County's (€3m vs €2m).
England: League Two 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
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Port Vale
Bradford
Walsall
AFC Wimbledon
Chesterfield
Salford
Grimsby
Colchester
Bromley
Swindon
Crewe
Fleetwood Town
Cheltenham
Barrow
Gillingham
Harrogate
Milton Keynes Dons
Tranmere
Accrington
Newport County
Carlisle
Morecambe