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Dravinja vs Krško Result & Analysis

Date: 16/05/2026
Time: 14:00
Final 2-1
Dravinja
Dravinja
Vs
55%
27%
18%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Krško
Krško
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Dravinja a 55% win probability against Krško in the Slovenia: 2. SNL on 2026-05-16, with 27% for the draw and 18% for Krško. The model estimates around 2.4 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (27%) and 1-0 the most likely scoreline (13.3%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 3.5 (78%), Over 1.5 (70%).

Results analysis

Dravinja finished 2-1 against Krško (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 55% home win, 27% draw and 18% away win. Picks that landed: Under 3.5 (78%), Over 1.5 (70%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Dravinja win✓ Hit
54.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Krško win✗ Miss
17.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

DravinjaDravinja

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L10W11D11D12L21W11D10W21W11DA·NAF16/03H·BIL21/03A·BEL28/03H·BRI04/04A·TRI11/04H·SLO19/04A·RUD25/04H·KRK30/04H·ILI06/05A·GOR11/05
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.031.601.131.330.931.87
vs Stronger (9)1.002.221.252.250.802.20
vs Similar (19)1.161.261.200.901.111.67
vs Weaker (2)0.002.000.002.000.002.00
Clean sheet %13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Krško) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KrškoKrško

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L22D14L10W11D12L04L11D03L04LA·TAB14/03H·BIS21/03A·NAF28/03H·BIL04/04A·BEL10/04H·BRI18/04A·TRI24/04H·SLO30/04A·RUD07/05H·KRK10/05
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.732.170.732.000.732.33
vs Stronger (26)0.772.230.771.920.772.54
vs Similar (4)0.501.750.502.500.501.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %7% (-22pp vs league)
This opponent (Dravinja) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%20%27%10%019%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.3%
Under 1.5
29.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
43.0%
Under 2.5
57.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.1%
Under 3.5
77.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
45.3%
No
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
13.3%
1-1
12.8%
2-0
11.5%
0-0
10.2%
2-1 ✓
9.3%
0-1
6.2%
3-0
6.1%
3-1
4.9%
Dravinja goals ↓
Krško goals →
01234
010%6.2%3.0%0.8%0.2%
113%13%4.7%1.3%0.3%
212%9.3%3.7%1.0%0.2%
36.1%4.9%2.0%0.5%0.1%
42.4%2.0%0.8%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dravinja goals (down), columns = Krško goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Brinje-Grosuplje
2.50
Nafta
2.50
Triglav
2.13
Beltinci
2.00
Tabor Sežana
1.67
Bistrica
1.50
Rudar
1.23
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.13
Dekani
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
0.97
Ilirija
0.90
Krško
0.87
Gorica
0.73
Jesenice
0.60
Dravinja is 0.37 points better than Krško in terms of average points per game (1.23 vs 0.87).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Brinje-Grosuplje
2.33
Nafta
2.17
Beltinci
1.83
Bistrica
1.67
Rudar
1.53
Dekani
1.33
Ilirija
1.27
Tabor Sežana
1.23
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
1.07
Dravinja
1.07
Gorica
1.03
Bilje
0.90
Jesenice
0.87
Krško
0.80
Dravinja is 0.27 goals better than Krško in terms of goals scored per game (1.07 vs 0.80).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Nafta
0.77
Beltinci
0.83
Brinje-Grosuplje
0.87
Triglav
0.93
Tabor Sežana
1.10
Bistrica
1.20
Rudar
1.30
Dravinja
1.47
Gorica
1.50
Dekani
1.53
Bilje
1.57
Krka
1.70
Ilirija
1.73
Slovan Ljubljana
1.73
Krško
2.07
Jesenice
2.27
Dravinja is 0.60 goals better than Krško in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 2.07).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.577.9%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.570.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TS (43)
€3m
BRI (26)
€3m
BEL (31)
€2m
NAF (24)
€2m
TRI (32)
€2m
BIS (39)
€2m
DEK (50)
€2m
RUD (52)
€2m
SL (36)
€2m
BIL (46)
€2m
ILI (46)
€2m
KRK (42)
€2m
DRA (34)
€1m
KRŠ (36)
€1m
JES (35)
€1m
Dravinja and Krško have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (0)
€0m
NAF (0)
€0m
BEL (0)
€0m
BIL (0)
€0m
BIS (0)
€0m
DEK (0)
€0m
DRA (0)
€0m
ILI (0)
€0m
JES (0)
€0m
KRK (0)
€0m
KRŠ (0)
€0m
RUD (0)
€0m
SL (0)
€0m
TS (0)
€0m
TRI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (0)
€0m
NAF (0)
€0m
BEL (0)
€0m
BIL (0)
€0m
BIS (0)
€0m
DEK (0)
€0m
DRA (0)
€0m
ILI (0)
€0m
JES (0)
€0m
KRK (0)
€0m
KRŠ (0)
€0m
RUD (0)
€0m
SL (0)
€0m
TS (0)
€0m
TRI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (0)
€0m
NAF (0)
€0m
BEL (0)
€0m
BIL (0)
€0m
BIS (0)
€0m
DEK (0)
€0m
DRA (0)
€0m
ILI (0)
€0m
JES (0)
€0m
KRK (0)
€0m
KRŠ (0)
€0m
RUD (0)
€0m
SL (0)
€0m
TS (0)
€0m
TRI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Dravinja vs Krško · H/A from DRA
DateH/AGameScore
08/11/25AKrško Vs DRA2-0

DravinjaDravinja

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/05/26AGorica Vs DRA1-1
06/05/26HDRA Vs Ilirija2-1
30/04/26HDRA Vs Krka1-0
25/04/26ARudar Vs DRA1-1
19/04/26HDRA Vs Slovan Ljubljana2-1
11/04/26ATriglav Vs DRA2-1
04/04/26HDRA Vs Brinje-Grosuplje1-1
28/03/26ABeltinci Vs DRA1-1
21/03/26HDRA Vs Bilje1-0
16/03/26ANafta Vs DRA2-1

KrškoKrško

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/05/26HKRŠ Vs Krka0-4
07/05/26ARudar Vs KRŠ3-0
30/04/26HKRŠ Vs Slovan Ljubljana1-1
24/04/26ATriglav Vs KRŠ4-0
18/04/26HKRŠ Vs Brinje-Grosuplje1-2
10/04/26ABeltinci Vs KRŠ1-1
04/04/26HKRŠ Vs Bilje1-0
28/03/26ANafta Vs KRŠ4-1
21/03/26HKRŠ Vs Bistrica2-2
14/03/26ATabor Sežana Vs KRŠ1-0

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Dravinja
Dravinja
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWWD1.26
HomeWDWWW1.42
AwayLDLDD1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%38%31%
AVG goals2.522.042.96
Over 1.5 %76%62%88%
Over 2.5 %50%38%62%
Over 3.5 %18%8%27%
Scored1.100.881.31
Conceded1.421.171.65
BTTS42%42%42%
Clean Sheet28%29%27%
Corners---
Cards---
Krško
Krško
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 1 Wins / 3 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDLL0.78
HomeDWLDL0.88
AwayLLDLL0.68
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %20%20%20%
AVG goals3.042.883.20
Over 1.5 %84%88%80%
Over 2.5 %62%60%64%
Over 3.5 %36%40%32%
Scored0.940.960.92
Conceded2.101.922.28
BTTS50%48%52%
Clean Sheet8%12%4%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje3075
77%
2.5
7026+44
3.2
83%
63%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0002.30.9
-
2NaftaNafta3075
77%
2.5
6523+42
2.9
90%
47%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0002.20.8
-
3TriglavTriglav3064
67%
2.1
7228+44
3.3
83%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0002.40.9
-
4BeltinciBeltinci3060
60%
2.0
5525+30
2.7
77%
53%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.80.8
-
5Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana3050
50%
1.7
3733+4
2.3
67%
40%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0001.21.1
-
6BistricaBistrica3045
43%
1.5
5036+14
2.9
83%
63%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.71.2
-
7RudarRudar3037
30%
1.2
4639+7
2.8
80%
60%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.51.3
-
8DravinjaDravinja3037
33%
1.2
3244-12
2.5
80%
43%
13%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.11.5
-
9BiljeBilje3034
30%
1.1
2747-20
2.5
60%
43%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0000.91.6
-
10DekaniDekani3033
27%
1.1
4046-6
2.9
83%
53%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.31.5
-
11Slovan LjubljanaSlovan Ljubljana3032
30%
1.1
3252-20
2.8
77%
57%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.11.7
-
12KrkaKrka3029
20%
1.0
3251-19
2.8
70%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.11.7
-
13IlirijaIlirija3027
20%
0.9
3852-14
3.0
87%
60%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.31.7
-
14KrškoKrško3026
23%
0.9
2462-38
2.9
87%
57%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.82.1
-
15GoricaGorica3022
13%
0.7
3145-14
2.5
73%
53%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.5
-
16JeseniceJesenice3018
13%
0.6
2668-42
3.1
80%
57%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.92.3
-
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →

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