This opponent (Derry City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derry City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
0.70
2.13
0.47
1.20
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.82
0.82
2.09
0.45
1.55
1.18
vs Weaker (8)
1.25
0.38
2.25
0.50
0.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Drogheda United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.5%
Under 1.5
31.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
40.8%
Under 2.5
59.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
20.4%
Under 3.5
79.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
46.8%
No
53.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
0-1
12.3%
0-0
11.1%
0-2
9.4%
1-2
8.8%
1-0
8.0%
2-1
6.0%
0-3
4.3%
Drogheda United goals ↓
Derry City goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
12%
9.4%
4.3%
1.5%
1
8.0%
14%
8.8%
4.0%
1.4%
2
4.3%
6.0%
4.1%
1.9%
0.7%
3
1.3%
1.9%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Drogheda United goals (down), columns = Derry City goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Shelbourne
1.75
Shamrock Rovers
1.69
St Patrick's Athl.
1.64
Derry City
1.53
Galway United
1.44
Sligo Rovers
1.36
Waterford
1.25
Bohemians
1.17
Drogheda United
1.00
Dundalk
0.72
Bray Wanderers
0.00
Drogheda United is 0.53 points worse than Derry City in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.53).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
St Patrick's Athl.
1.42
Shamrock Rovers
1.39
Derry City
1.33
Waterford
1.19
Drogheda United
1.19
Shelbourne
1.11
Sligo Rovers
1.11
Bohemians
1.08
Bray Wanderers
1.00
Galway United
0.92
Dundalk
0.64
Drogheda United is 0.14 goals worse than Derry City in terms of goals scored per game (1.19 vs 1.33).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shelbourne
0.75
Galway United
0.81
Derry City
0.86
Shamrock Rovers
0.97
St Patrick's Athl.
1.03
Bohemians
1.19
Waterford
1.31
Dundalk
1.39
Sligo Rovers
1.42
Drogheda United
1.59
Bray Wanderers
3.00
Drogheda United is 0.73 goals worse than Derry City in terms of goals conceded per game (1.59 vs 0.86).
âąïļ Possession
Avg possession %
Shamrock Rovers
62%
Derry City
56%
Shelbourne
53%
St Patrick's Athl.
53%
Bohemians
52%
Waterford
50%
Dundalk
48%
Sligo Rovers
48%
Drogheda United
39%
Galway United
39%
Drogheda United is 17.1 percentage points worse than Derry City in terms of average possession (39% vs 56%).
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Drogheda United
For 4.3 · Against 5.9 · Total 10.2
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 1.6 · Total 4.3
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 12.2 · Total 25.2
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Derry City
For 6.0 · Against 3.3 · Total 9.3
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.2
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 14.3 · Total 25.5
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Drogheda United
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
10.4
9.1
1.9
2.0
1.8
22.5
22.2
22.8
vs Stronger (15)
9.6
11.3
8.2
1.7
1.4
2.1
20.1
21.7
19.0
vs Similar (34)
9.8
10.1
9.5
2.0
2.5
1.6
23.5
22.4
24.6
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
67%
33%
26%
29%
23%
62%
58%
67%
% under line
50%
33%
67%
74%
71%
77%
38%
42%
33%
This opponent (Derry City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derry City
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
10.5
9.3
2.9
2.2
3.6
24.4
24.6
24.1
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (36)
9.8
10.2
9.4
2.7
2.1
3.4
24.7
25.4
24.0
vs Weaker (14)
10.2
11.5
9.0
3.4
2.6
4.1
23.6
22.8
24.5
% over line
53%
60%
47%
40%
31%
50%
62%
57%
67%
% under line
47%
40%
53%
60%
69%
50%
38%
43%
33%
This opponent (Drogheda United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Galway United
12.0
Bohemians
11.4
Shamrock Rovers
10.4
Drogheda United
9.8
Derry City
9.7
Waterford
9.7
St Patrick's Athl.
9.3
Sligo Rovers
8.8
Shelbourne
8.7
Dundalk
7.7
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
St Patrick's Athl.
6.1
Shelbourne
5.9
Sligo Rovers
5.3
Bohemians
5.2
Dundalk
5.1
Derry City
5.0
Waterford
5.0
Shamrock Rovers
4.8
Drogheda United
4.1
Galway United
4.0
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Dundalk
27.2
Sligo Rovers
27.1
Shelbourne
26.5
St Patrick's Athl.
25.8
Bohemians
24.7
Galway United
24.6
Derry City
24.4
Waterford
24.3
Shamrock Rovers
23.4
Drogheda United
22.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
50.8%
Under 9.5
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
70.0%
Under 3.5
30.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
71.2%
Under 21.5
28.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Drogheda United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.57
0.73
0.47
0.47
0.67
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
0.60
0.25
0.25
0.33
0.83
vs Similar (20)
0.75
0.55
0.91
0.55
0.56
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Derry City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derry City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.23
0.73
0.13
0.47
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.27
0.73
0.09
0.64
0.45
vs Weaker (8)
0.38
0.12
0.75
0.25
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
80% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (Drogheda United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Drogheda United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drogheda United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drogheda United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Drogheda United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.07
0.67
0.80
0.53
1.33
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
1.00
0.25
0.00
0.50
1.67
vs Similar (20)
0.70
1.10
0.82
1.09
0.56
1.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Derry City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derry City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.47
1.40
0.33
0.73
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.14
0.55
1.36
0.36
0.91
0.73
vs Weaker (8)
0.88
0.25
1.50
0.25
0.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Drogheda United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Drogheda United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drogheda United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drogheda United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 3.5
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Under 11.5 corners
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 3.5 cards
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð― 13. Player market rates
Drogheda United
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Douglas James-Taylor38%
Frantz Pierrot26%
Evan Weir21%
Steve Zishim Bawa18%
Adam Foley12%
Shane Farrell9%
Aaron McNally9%
Andrew Quinn8%
Elicha Ahui8%
Hayden Cann6%
Oisin Gallagher6%
Jack Keaney4%
Conor Kane4%
Warren Davis4%
Darragh Markey3%
Gary Deegan0%
Jethren Barr0%
David Webster0%
Ryan Brennan0%
Luke Heeney0%
Luke Dennison0%
Matthew O'Brien0%
Killian Cailloce0%
Andrew Wogan0%
James Bolger0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Shane Farrell45%
Douglas James-Taylor31%
Elicha Ahui31%
Oisin Gallagher28%
Luke Dennison27%
Evan Weir26%
Matthew O'Brien25%
Darragh Markey24%
Ryan Brennan24%
Luke Heeney24%
Jack Keaney24%
Gary Deegan24%
David Webster21%
James Bolger18%
Frantz Pierrot16%
Adam Foley16%
Hayden Cann12%
Aaron McNally9%
Andrew Quinn8%
Warren Davis7%
Steve Zishim Bawa6%
Andrew Wogan5%
Jethren Barr0%
Conor Kane0%
Killian Cailloce0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Darragh Markey12%
Evan Weir11%
Shane Farrell9%
Douglas James-Taylor8%
Conor Kane8%
Adam Foley6%
Oisin Gallagher6%
Andrew Wogan5%
Gary Deegan5%
Andrew Quinn4%
Luke Heeney3%
Frantz Pierrot3%
Jethren Barr0%
David Webster0%
Jack Keaney0%
Ryan Brennan0%
Luke Dennison0%
Aaron McNally0%
Matthew O'Brien0%
Hayden Cann0%
Killian Cailloce0%
Elicha Ahui0%
Warren Davis0%
Steve Zishim Bawa0%
James Bolger0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Frantz Pierrot39%
Douglas James-Taylor23%
Steve Zishim Bawa18%
Darragh Markey9%
Shane Farrell9%
James Bolger9%
Warren Davis7%
Adam Foley6%
Evan Weir5%
Conor Kane4%
Gary Deegan0%
Jethren Barr0%
David Webster0%
Jack Keaney0%
Ryan Brennan0%
Luke Heeney0%
Luke Dennison0%
Aaron McNally0%
Matthew O'Brien0%
Hayden Cann0%
Andrew Quinn0%
Oisin Gallagher0%
Killian Cailloce0%
Elicha Ahui0%
Andrew Wogan0%
Derry City
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Pat Hoban40%
William Patching22%
Danny Mullen19%
Michael Duffy17%
Colm Whelan11%
Paul McMullan9%
Ronan Boyce7%
Cameron Dummigan7%
Sadou Diallo5%
Ciaran Coll4%
Daniel Kelly4%
Ben Doherty4%
Mark Connolly3%
Adam O'Reilly3%
Andre Wisdom0%
Jacob Davenport0%
Patrick McEleney0%
Ciaron Harkin0%
Brian Maher0%
Sam Todd0%
Shane McEleney0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Cameron McJannett0%
Sean Robertson0%
Sean Patton0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mark Connolly31%
Adam O'Reilly26%
Pat Hoban20%
Sam Todd20%
Paul McMullan17%
Jacob Davenport17%
Ciaran Coll17%
Sean Robertson17%
William Patching16%
Sadou Diallo15%
Michael Duffy13%
Andre Wisdom12%
Danny Mullen10%
Cameron McJannett10%
Brian Maher9%
Daniel Kelly8%
Ben Doherty8%
Shane McEleney5%
Ronan Boyce3%
Cameron Dummigan0%
Patrick McEleney0%
Ciaron Harkin0%
Colm Whelan0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Sean Patton0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jacob Davenport17%
Michael Duffy17%
Paul McMullan14%
William Patching12%
Daniel Kelly12%
Pat Hoban10%
Cameron McJannett10%
Patrick McEleney8%
Ben Doherty8%
Cameron Dummigan7%
Danny Mullen6%
Mark Connolly6%
Andre Wisdom0%
Adam O'Reilly0%
Ciaran Coll0%
Ciaron Harkin0%
Brian Maher0%
Sam Todd0%
Shane McEleney0%
Colm Whelan0%
Ronan Boyce0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Sadou Diallo0%
Sean Robertson0%
Sean Patton0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Pat Hoban30%
Michael Duffy17%
William Patching16%
Paul McMullan11%
Colm Whelan11%
Danny Mullen10%
Daniel Kelly8%
Cameron McJannett5%
Andre Wisdom0%
Adam O'Reilly0%
Jacob Davenport0%
Mark Connolly0%
Cameron Dummigan0%
Patrick McEleney0%
Ciaran Coll0%
Ciaron Harkin0%
Brian Maher0%
Sam Todd0%
Shane McEleney0%
Ben Doherty0%
Ronan Boyce0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Sadou Diallo0%
Sean Robertson0%
Sean Patton0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (31)
€7m
SPA (22)
€5m
BOH (23)
€4m
DC (22)
€4m
SHE (22)
€4m
DU (19)
€3m
SR (21)
€3m
DUN (20)
€3m
GU (21)
€3m
WAT (19)
€2m
BW (1)
€0m
Drogheda United's squad is €1m less valuable than Derry City's (€3m vs €4m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (14)
€3m
SPA (6)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (7)
€1m
SHE (8)
€1m
SR (10)
€1m
WAT (6)
€1m
DU (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
DUN (3)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
Drogheda United and Derry City have a similar attack value (both €1m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (7)
€2m
SPA (7)
€1m
DC (6)
€1m
BOH (5)
€1m
SHE (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (5)
€1m
DUN (6)
€1m
SR (3)
€1m
DU (4)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
Drogheda United and Derry City have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (10)
€2m
SPA (9)
€2m
DU (11)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (9)
€2m
DUN (11)
€2m
SHE (10)
€2m
SR (8)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (8)
€1m
BW (0)
€0m
Drogheda United and Derry City have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Ireland: Premier Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: Premier Division stats & trends →
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Shelbourne
Shamrock Rovers
St Patrick's Athl.
Galway United
Sligo Rovers
Waterford
Bohemians
Dundalk
Bray Wanderers