The model projects a tight, low-scoring clash with Drogheda United favored to win at home. The defensive outlook is clear: Drogheda average 1.0 goal for and 0.7 against, while Galway concede 1.21 and score only 0.36 on the road. The expected total is 1.7 goals, with the most likely total of one goal at 28%. The single most probable scoreline is 0-0, carrying a 19.3% chance. Home win probability sits at 45%, draw at 35%, and away win at 20%. The model’s selection list includes Under 3.5 (90.5%), Over 2.5 cards (83.0%), Under 25.5 fouls (77.2%), and Under 2.5 (75.4%). Drogheda’s recent form shows a dip after two straight defeats, whereas Galway have remained unbeaten in their last five. Despite the defensive balance, the forecast points to a home victory as the most likely outcome.
Results analysis
The upset came early: Drogheda United, who had just lost twice in a row, fell to a 2-3 defeat against Galway United, who had remained unbeaten in their last five. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was assigned a 45% probability, but the model’s call was wrong. The model’s selection of Under 3.5 goals, with a 90.5% chance, missed as the match saw five goals. Over 2.5 cards, at 83%, hit, as did Under 25.5 fouls, 77.2%. Under 2.5, at 75.4%, also missed. The final score of 2-3 confirmed Galway’s away victory.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Drogheda United win✗ Miss
44.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
35.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Galway United win✓ Hit
20.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Drogheda United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.10
0.87
0.80
0.87
1.40
vs Stronger (10)
0.70
1.60
0.60
1.00
0.80
2.20
vs Similar (20)
0.95
0.85
1.00
0.70
0.90
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Galway United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Galway United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.23
1.44
1.25
0.36
1.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.93
1.23
1.44
1.25
0.36
1.21
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Drogheda United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 1 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
52.3%
Under 1.5
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
24.6%
Under 2.5
75.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
9.5%
Under 3.5
90.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
32.2%
No
67.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
19.3%
1-0
18.2%
1-1
13.6%
2-0
10.5%
0-1
10.2%
2-1
6.7%
1-2
3.9%
3-0
3.8%
Drogheda United goals ↓
Galway United goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
19%
10%
3.6%
0.8%
0.1%
1
18%
14%
3.9%
0.8%
0.1%
2
11%
6.7%
2.1%
0.4%
0.1%
3
3.8%
2.4%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
4
1.0%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Drogheda United goals (down), columns = Galway United goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shamrock Rovers
1.96
St Patrick's Athl.
1.72
Bohemians
1.72
Dundalk
1.38
Shelbourne
1.30
Galway United
1.21
Derry City
1.17
Waterford
1.10
Drogheda United
0.97
Sligo Rovers
0.79
Drogheda United is 0.25 points worse than Galway United in terms of average points per game (0.97 vs 1.21).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bohemians
1.72
Shamrock Rovers
1.64
Dundalk
1.59
St Patrick's Athl.
1.55
Derry City
1.41
Shelbourne
1.37
Waterford
1.34
Galway United
1.29
Drogheda United
1.14
Sligo Rovers
0.79
Drogheda United is 0.15 goals worse than Galway United in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 1.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
St Patrick's Athl.
0.86
Shamrock Rovers
0.96
Bohemians
1.17
Derry City
1.38
Shelbourne
1.44
Galway United
1.50
Dundalk
1.55
Sligo Rovers
1.66
Drogheda United
1.66
Waterford
1.66
Drogheda United is 0.16 goals worse than Galway United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.66 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Shamrock Rovers
62%
Bohemians
59%
St Patrick's Athl.
55%
Derry City
54%
Shelbourne
53%
Dundalk
52%
Sligo Rovers
46%
Drogheda United
40%
Galway United
40%
Waterford
39%
Drogheda United is 0.6 percentage points better than Galway United in terms of average possession (40% vs 40%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Drogheda United
For 3.8 · Against 5.5 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 11.7 · Total 22.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Galway United
For 3.6 · Against 6.8 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.4 · Against 11.2 · Total 23.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Drogheda United
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.6
10.3
4.0
4.4
3.6
20.9
21.5
20.2
vs Stronger (16)
9.2
10.0
8.3
4.7
5.8
3.6
20.9
22.0
19.7
vs Similar (33)
11.1
10.9
11.2
3.8
3.7
3.8
20.8
21.2
20.4
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
52%
58%
45%
54%
67%
42%
54%
58%
50%
% under line
48%
42%
55%
46%
33%
58%
46%
42%
50%
This opponent (Galway United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Galway United
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.8
9.8
4.6
4.6
4.6
23.2
23.7
22.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (50)
10.3
10.8
9.8
4.6
4.6
4.6
23.2
23.7
22.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
62%
70%
54%
68%
72%
64%
66%
65%
67%
% under line
38%
30%
46%
32%
28%
36%
34%
35%
33%
This opponent (Drogheda United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Waterford
10.8
Sligo Rovers
10.7
Drogheda United
10.6
Bohemians
10.2
Galway United
10.2
Dundalk
9.7
Shelbourne
9.7
St Patrick's Athl.
9.6
Derry City
8.8
Shamrock Rovers
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Derry City
5.4
Shamrock Rovers
5.2
Waterford
5.2
St Patrick's Athl.
5.1
Bohemians
5.0
Sligo Rovers
5.0
Dundalk
5.0
Galway United
4.9
Shelbourne
4.5
Drogheda United
4.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Dundalk
24.7
Derry City
24.0
Bohemians
23.3
Waterford
23.3
Galway United
23.1
Shamrock Rovers
22.4
St Patrick's Athl.
21.9
Sligo Rovers
21.1
Drogheda United
21.0
Shelbourne
20.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
55.2%
Under 9.5
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
66.2%
Under 3.5
33.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
53.5%
Under 21.5
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Drogheda United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.33
0.67
0.20
0.20
0.47
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.20
0.20
0.80
vs Similar (20)
0.45
0.25
0.70
0.20
0.20
0.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
73% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Galway United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Galway United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.43
0.69
0.50
0.14
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.43
0.43
0.69
0.50
0.14
0.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Drogheda United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Drogheda United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drogheda United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drogheda United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Galway United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Galway United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Galway United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Drogheda United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.77
0.20
0.60
0.67
0.93
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
1.10
0.00
0.80
0.60
1.40
vs Similar (20)
0.50
0.60
0.30
0.50
0.70
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Galway United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Galway United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.80
0.75
0.75
0.21
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.50
0.80
0.75
0.75
0.21
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Drogheda United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Drogheda United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drogheda United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drogheda United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Galway United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Galway United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Galway United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Drogheda United
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
M. Doyle30%
Keegan Ancelin20%
Shane Farrell16%
Brandon Kavanagh11%
T. Oluwa11%
Warren Davis11%
Ryan Brennan9%
Conor Keeley8%
Jago Godden8%
Leo Burney6%
Edwin Agbaje4%
Alfie Bates0%
Conor Kane0%
Luke Dennison0%
Andrew Quinn0%
Kieran Cruise0%
Ethan O'Brien0%
J. Bolger0%
Jason Bucknor0%
Dare Kareem0%
Fynn Talley0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Shane Farrell44%
Leo Burney38%
Ryan Brennan32%
Conor Keeley23%
Alfie Bates20%
Jago Godden19%
M. Doyle19%
J. Bolger17%
Edwin Agbaje14%
Ethan O'Brien13%
Jason Bucknor12%
Brandon Kavanagh11%
Conor Kane11%
Kieran Cruise8%
T. Oluwa7%
Luke Dennison6%
Andrew Quinn0%
Warren Davis0%
Keegan Ancelin0%
Dare Kareem0%
Fynn Talley0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Keegan Ancelin20%
Kieran Cruise17%
Brandon Kavanagh15%
Andrew Quinn5%
Ryan Brennan5%
Conor Keeley4%
Jago Godden4%
T. Oluwa4%
Conor Kane4%
Edwin Agbaje4%
Alfie Bates0%
Shane Farrell0%
M. Doyle0%
Luke Dennison0%
Warren Davis0%
Ethan O'Brien0%
J. Bolger0%
Jason Bucknor0%
Leo Burney0%
Dare Kareem0%
Fynn Talley0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Shane Farrell12%
M. Doyle11%
Conor Keeley4%
Jago Godden4%
Brandon Kavanagh4%
T. Oluwa4%
Alfie Bates0%
Ryan Brennan0%
Conor Kane0%
Luke Dennison0%
Edwin Agbaje0%
Andrew Quinn0%
Kieran Cruise0%
Warren Davis0%
Ethan O'Brien0%
J. Bolger0%
Keegan Ancelin0%
Jason Bucknor0%
Leo Burney0%
Dare Kareem0%
Fynn Talley0%
Galway United
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kristopher Twardek29%
Frantz Pierrot22%
J. Keohane13%
Francely Lomboto11%
M. Wolfe9%
A. Bolger8%
S. Walsh8%
E. McCarthy8%
Axel Piesold8%
D. Hurley7%
Killian Brouder5%
Wasiri Ola Williams4%
Dylan Connolly0%
Conor McCormack0%
Al-Amin Kazeem0%
Gianfranco Facchineri0%
Leigh Kavanagh0%
Hugo Cunha0%
Connor Barratt0%
Arthur Parker0%
Evan Watts0%
Nicolas Fleuriau Chateau0%
Lee Devitt0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Leigh Kavanagh20%
Wasiri Ola Williams20%
S. Walsh19%
D. Hurley19%
M. Wolfe18%
Gianfranco Facchineri17%
A. Bolger16%
Lee Devitt16%
Connor Barratt16%
Al-Amin Kazeem15%
Kristopher Twardek14%
J. Keohane13%
Evan Watts10%
Frantz Pierrot9%
Conor McCormack8%
Arthur Parker8%
E. McCarthy8%
Axel Piesold8%
Francely Lomboto5%
Killian Brouder5%
Dylan Connolly0%
Hugo Cunha0%
Nicolas Fleuriau Chateau0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kristopher Twardek24%
D. Hurley22%
J. Keohane13%
S. Walsh12%
A. Bolger8%
Axel Piesold8%
M. Wolfe5%
Wasiri Ola Williams4%
Dylan Connolly0%
Conor McCormack0%
Killian Brouder0%
Al-Amin Kazeem0%
Frantz Pierrot0%
Gianfranco Facchineri0%
Leigh Kavanagh0%
Francely Lomboto0%
E. McCarthy0%
Hugo Cunha0%
Connor Barratt0%
Arthur Parker0%
Evan Watts0%
Nicolas Fleuriau Chateau0%
Lee Devitt0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
S. Walsh15%
Frantz Pierrot13%
Francely Lomboto11%
Kristopher Twardek10%
J. Keohane9%
D. Hurley7%
M. Wolfe5%
A. Bolger4%
E. McCarthy4%
Dylan Connolly0%
Conor McCormack0%
Killian Brouder0%
Al-Amin Kazeem0%
Gianfranco Facchineri0%
Leigh Kavanagh0%
Hugo Cunha0%
Connor Barratt0%
Arthur Parker0%
Wasiri Ola Williams0%
Axel Piesold0%
Evan Watts0%
Nicolas Fleuriau Chateau0%
Lee Devitt0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (31)
€7m
SPA (22)
€5m
BOH (23)
€4m
DC (22)
€4m
SHE (22)
€4m
DU (19)
€3m
SR (21)
€3m
DUN (20)
€3m
GU (21)
€3m
WAT (19)
€2m
Drogheda United and Galway United have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (14)
€3m
SPA (6)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (7)
€1m
SHE (8)
€1m
SR (10)
€1m
WAT (6)
€1m
DU (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
DUN (3)
€0m
Drogheda United and Galway United have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (7)
€2m
SPA (7)
€1m
DC (6)
€1m
BOH (5)
€1m
SHE (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (5)
€1m
DUN (6)
€1m
SR (3)
€1m
DU (4)
€0m
Drogheda United and Galway United have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (10)
€2m
SPA (9)
€2m
DU (11)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (9)
€2m
DUN (11)
€2m
SHE (10)
€2m
SR (8)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (8)
€1m
Drogheda United and Galway United have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Ireland: Premier Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: Premier Division stats & trends →
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Shamrock Rovers
St Patrick's Athl.
Bohemians
Dundalk
Shelbourne
Derry City
Waterford
Sligo Rovers