Dugopolje are the clear favorites, with a 44% chance of victory, a 29% chance of a draw and a 27% chance of Opatija winning. The match is expected to see about 2.5 goals, with the most likely total being two goals at a 27% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 13.8% chance. Dugopolje, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, typically score 1.71 goals and concede 1.14. Opatija, on the road, averages 0.77 goals scored and 1.15 conceded against comparable teams. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.6%), Under 6.5 (98.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.6%), Under 5.5 (95.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.2%), Away under 2.5 goals (90.4%), Home +2 handicap (89.0%) and Under 4.5 (88.9%). Dugopolje’s recent form shows a draw in their last match, while Opatija come off a win. These figures suggest a tight contest with Dugopolje likely edging out.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dugopolje win
43.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Opatija win
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dugopolje
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.17
1.67
1.13
0.87
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
1.28
1.17
1.71
1.14
0.87
1.20
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Opatija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Opatija
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.07
1.27
0.93
0.80
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.08
1.12
1.38
1.08
0.77
1.15
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.75
0.50
0.00
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Dugopolje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
72.9%
Under 1.5
27.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
46.1%
Under 2.5
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
24.6%
Under 3.5
75.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
51.6%
No
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
1-0
10.3%
0-0
9.3%
2-1
9.0%
2-0
8.3%
0-1
7.5%
1-2
6.8%
2-2
4.9%
Dugopolje goals ↓
Opatija goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.3%
7.5%
4.7%
1.7%
0.5%
1
10%
14%
6.8%
2.4%
0.7%
2
8.3%
9.0%
4.9%
1.8%
0.5%
3
4.0%
4.3%
2.3%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.4%
1.5%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dugopolje goals (down), columns = Opatija goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
HNK Cibalia
1.76
Sesvete
1.73
Vukovar
1.68
Dugopolje
1.64
Dubrava Zagreb
1.42
Dinamo Zagreb U21
1.39
Segesta Sisak
1.38
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.27
Karlovac 1919
1.27
Opatija
1.21
Orijent 1919
1.15
Jadran LP
1.14
Hrvace
1.09
Croatia Zmijavci
1.06
Kustosija
1.02
Mladost Ždralovi
0.51
Dugopolje is 0.42 points better than Opatija in terms of average points per game (1.64 vs 1.21).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
HNK Cibalia
1.55
Vukovar
1.43
Sesvete
1.27
Dugopolje
1.21
Karlovac 1919
1.21
Orijent 1919
1.21
Dubrava Zagreb
1.18
Dinamo Zagreb U21
1.18
Segesta Sisak
1.17
Hrvace
1.09
Croatia Zmijavci
0.97
Jadran LP
0.97
Opatija
0.94
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.91
Kustosija
0.86
Mladost Ždralovi
0.43
Dugopolje is 0.27 goals better than Opatija in terms of goals scored per game (1.21 vs 0.94).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sesvete
0.85
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.91
Vukovar
0.96
HNK Cibalia
1.00
Dugopolje
1.15
Opatija
1.15
Dinamo Zagreb U21
1.17
Segesta Sisak
1.17
Orijent 1919
1.24
Karlovac 1919
1.36
Dubrava Zagreb
1.39
Croatia Zmijavci
1.39
Jadran LP
1.42
Hrvace
1.45
Kustosija
1.59
Mladost Ždralovi
3.18
Dugopolje and Opatija are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.15).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Dugopolje or Draw
72.8%
Avg Implied -
44%
29%
27%
covers Dugopolje + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dugopolje or Opatija
71.1%
Avg Implied -
44%
29%
27%
covers Dugopolje + Opatija
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Opatija
56.1%
Avg Implied -
44%
29%
27%
covers Draw + Opatija
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Dugopolje over/under 0.5
Over
76.2%
Under
23.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dugopolje over/under 1.5
Over
42.0%
Under
58.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dugopolje over/under 2.5
Over
17.5%
Under
82.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dugopolje over/under 3.5
Over
5.8%
Under
94.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Opatija over/under 0.5
Over
66.1%
Under
33.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Opatija over/under 1.5
Over
29.5%
Under
70.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Opatija over/under 2.5
Over
9.6%
Under
90.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Opatija over/under 3.5
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Dugopolje, so a minus line means Dugopolje give that many goals of a start and Opatija receive them. At -1, Dugopolje must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Dugopolje win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Dugopolje)
Dugopolje -2
8.4%
Draw -2
13.5%
Opatija +2
78.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Dugopolje)
Dugopolje -1
21.9%
Draw -1
22.0%
Opatija +1
56.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Dugopolje)
Dugopolje +1
72.8%
Draw +1
16.3%
Opatija -1
11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Dugopolje)
Dugopolje +2
89.0%
Draw +2
7.7%
Opatija -2
3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dugopolje
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.67
0.93
0.60
0.53
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.72
0.69
0.93
0.64
0.53
0.73
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Opatija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Opatija
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.53
0.73
0.33
0.27
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.46
0.58
0.77
0.38
0.15
0.77
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.25
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Dugopolje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dugopolje over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dugopolje over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dugopolje over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Opatija over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Opatija over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Opatija over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dugopolje
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.50
0.73
0.53
0.33
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.55
0.48
0.79
0.50
0.33
0.47
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Opatija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Opatija
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.53
0.53
0.60
0.53
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.54
0.62
0.69
0.62
0.38
vs Weaker (4)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Dugopolje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dugopolje over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dugopolje over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dugopolje over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Opatija over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Opatija over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Opatija over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
K1 (26)
€4m
SES (22)
€3m
VUK (13)
€2m
DUG (22)
€2m
OPA (22)
€2m
BBB (18)
€2m
DZ (15)
€2m
O1 (19)
€2m
HRV (20)
€2m
KUS (12)
€2m
JL (9)
€2m
CZ (14)
€2m
HC (19)
€2m
DZU (2)
€1m
MŽ (4)
€0m
Dugopolje and Opatija have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
K1 (10)
€2m
VUK (6)
€1m
HRV (8)
€1m
JL (4)
€1m
O1 (4)
€1m
SES (7)
€1m
DUG (10)
€1m
BBB (7)
€1m
CZ (7)
€1m
KUS (3)
€1m
DZU (1)
€0m
HC (6)
€0m
MŽ (4)
€0m
OPA (7)
€0m
DZ (4)
€0m
Dugopolje and Opatija have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (4)
€1m
DZ (3)
€1m
DUG (4)
€1m
OPA (5)
€1m
K1 (5)
€0m
HC (6)
€0m
BBB (2)
€0m
KUS (2)
€0m
VUK (2)
€0m
CZ (2)
€0m
DZU (1)
€0m
O1 (2)
€0m
HRV (3)
€0m
JL (1)
€0m
MŽ (0)
€0m
Dugopolje and Opatija have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (11)
€2m
OPA (10)
€1m
O1 (13)
€1m
DZ (8)
€1m
HRV (9)
€1m
KUS (7)
€1m
BBB (9)
€1m
VUK (5)
€1m
K1 (11)
€1m
DUG (8)
€1m
CZ (5)
€1m
HC (7)
€1m
JL (4)
€1m
MŽ (0)
€0m
DZU (0)
€0m
Dugopolje and Opatija have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Croatia: First NL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: First NL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Croatia Zmijavci
Mladost Ždralovi
Jadran LP
HNK Cibalia
Orijent 1919
Segesta Sisak
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
Vukovar
Karlovac 1919
Sesvete
Dinamo Zagreb U21
Kustosija
Dubrava Zagreb
Hrvace