This opponent (Shamrock Rovers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shamrock Rovers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
0.87
2.06
1.19
1.64
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.50
1.50
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.71
0.86
2.00
1.12
1.33
0.50
vs Weaker (14)
2.21
0.79
2.67
1.17
1.88
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundalk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.8%
Under 1.5
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
50.0%
Under 2.5
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.0%
Under 3.5
72.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.5%
No
48.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%
0-1
10.8%
0-2
10.2%
1-2
9.7%
0-0
8.0%
0-3
5.9%
1-3
5.6%
1-0
5.4%
Dundalk goals ↓
Shamrock Rovers goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.0%
11%
10%
5.9%
2.5%
1
5.4%
12%
9.7%
5.6%
2.4%
2
3.1%
5.4%
4.6%
2.7%
1.1%
3
1.0%
1.7%
1.5%
0.8%
0.4%
4
0.2%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dundalk goals (down), columns = Shamrock Rovers goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Shamrock Rovers
2.00
Derry City
1.81
St Patrick's Athl.
1.72
Shelbourne
1.67
Dundalk
1.61
Bohemians
1.61
Drogheda United
1.14
Sligo Rovers
1.03
Waterford
1.00
Cork City
0.86
UCD
0.31
Dundalk is 0.39 points worse than Shamrock Rovers in terms of average points per game (1.61 vs 2.00).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shamrock Rovers
1.86
Dundalk
1.64
St Patrick's Athl.
1.64
Derry City
1.58
Bohemians
1.47
Shelbourne
1.22
Drogheda United
1.11
Waterford
1.00
Sligo Rovers
1.00
Cork City
0.97
UCD
0.53
Dundalk is 0.22 goals worse than Shamrock Rovers in terms of goals scored per game (1.64 vs 1.86).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Derry City
0.67
Shelbourne
0.75
Shamrock Rovers
0.75
Waterford
1.00
Bohemians
1.11
St Patrick's Athl.
1.17
Dundalk
1.22
Sligo Rovers
1.42
Drogheda United
1.50
Cork City
1.76
UCD
2.67
Dundalk is 0.47 goals worse than Shamrock Rovers in terms of goals conceded per game (1.22 vs 0.75).
âąïļ Possession
Avg possession %
Shamrock Rovers
60%
Bohemians
57%
Dundalk
56%
Derry City
56%
Shelbourne
53%
Sligo Rovers
49%
St Patrick's Athl.
46%
Cork City
45%
Drogheda United
40%
UCD
38%
Dundalk is 3.9 percentage points worse than Shamrock Rovers in terms of average possession (56% vs 60%).
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Dundalk
For 3.5 · Against 5.0 · Total 8.5
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 4.0 · Against 2.5 · Total 6.5
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.0 · Against 12.5 · Total 28.5
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Shamrock Rovers
For 6.2 · Against 5.4 · Total 11.6
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 4.0 · Against 2.6 · Total 6.6
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 13.0 · Total 23.0
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dundalk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.5
6.0
11.0
0.3
0.4
0.2
28.5
28.0
29.0
vs Stronger (5)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (42)
8.5
6.0
11.0
0.3
0.4
0.2
28.5
28.0
29.0
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
50%
0%
100%
4%
4%
4%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
50%
100%
0%
96%
96%
96%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Shamrock Rovers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shamrock Rovers
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
10.3
8.9
1.7
1.6
1.8
23.5
24.7
21.8
vs Stronger (8)
11.0
11.3
10.7
4.5
5.5
3.5
22.4
24.0
20.0
vs Similar (21)
8.0
9.3
6.7
1.4
1.0
1.9
25.0
26.5
23.5
vs Weaker (21)
10.0
10.0
10.0
0.9
0.7
1.0
23.0
23.0
-
% over line
64%
71%
57%
22%
19%
25%
80%
83%
75%
% under line
36%
29%
43%
78%
81%
75%
20%
17%
25%
This opponent (Dundalk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Cork City
12.0
Drogheda United
11.0
Sligo Rovers
10.8
Bohemians
10.0
Shamrock Rovers
9.6
Derry City
9.3
St Patrick's Athl.
8.7
Dundalk
8.5
Shelbourne
5.0
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Shelbourne
8.0
St Patrick's Athl.
8.0
Bohemians
7.0
Dundalk
6.5
Derry City
6.0
Shamrock Rovers
6.0
Cork City
5.0
Sligo Rovers
4.8
Drogheda United
4.0
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Shelbourne
37.0
St Patrick's Athl.
32.5
Drogheda United
29.0
Dundalk
28.5
Cork City
27.0
Derry City
25.5
Bohemians
25.0
Shamrock Rovers
23.5
Sligo Rovers
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
39.7%
Under 9.5
60.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
94.8%
Under 3.5
5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
88.2%
Under 21.5
11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dundalk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.57
1.07
0.67
0.40
0.47
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.74
0.52
1.14
0.57
0.31
0.46
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Shamrock Rovers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shamrock Rovers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.37
1.00
0.56
0.71
0.14
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.79
0.43
0.88
0.62
0.67
0.17
vs Weaker (14)
1.00
0.29
1.33
0.50
0.75
0.12
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundalk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dundalk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shamrock Rovers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shamrock Rovers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shamrock Rovers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dundalk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.77
1.00
0.87
0.67
0.67
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.93
0.70
1.07
0.79
0.77
0.62
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Shamrock Rovers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shamrock Rovers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.50
1.06
0.62
0.93
0.36
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.93
0.43
1.12
0.50
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (14)
1.21
0.50
1.33
0.67
1.12
0.38
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundalk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dundalk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shamrock Rovers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shamrock Rovers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shamrock Rovers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 3.5 cards
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Over 4.5 cards
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Under 11.5 corners
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Over 5.5 cards
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Over 1.5
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 3.5
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 10.5 corners
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð― 13. Player market rates
Dundalk
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Daniel Kelly43%
Pat Hoban33%
Daryl Horgan27%
Paul Doyle25%
Sam Durrant20%
John Martin17%
Louie Annesley11%
Johannes Yli-Kokko10%
Connor Malley8%
Hayden Muller7%
Andy Boyle0%
Darren Brownlie0%
Robbie Benson0%
Darragh Leahy0%
Robert McCourt0%
Keith Ward0%
Gregory Sloggett0%
Ryan O'Kane0%
Archie Davies0%
Cameron Elliott0%
Alfie Lewis0%
Nathan Shepperd0%
Senan Mullen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Louie Annesley56%
Robbie Benson43%
Daniel Kelly36%
Archie Davies33%
Darren Brownlie29%
Hayden Muller29%
Senan Mullen25%
Gregory Sloggett21%
Pat Hoban20%
Johannes Yli-Kokko20%
Daryl Horgan18%
Connor Malley17%
Andy Boyle17%
Robert McCourt17%
Darragh Leahy14%
Cameron Elliott10%
Sam Durrant10%
John Martin8%
Paul Doyle8%
Keith Ward0%
Ryan O'Kane0%
Alfie Lewis0%
Nathan Shepperd0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Archie Davies40%
Keith Ward33%
Cameron Elliott20%
Daryl Horgan18%
Robert McCourt17%
Paul Doyle17%
Pat Hoban13%
Connor Malley8%
Daniel Kelly7%
Andy Boyle0%
Darren Brownlie0%
Louie Annesley0%
Robbie Benson0%
Darragh Leahy0%
Gregory Sloggett0%
John Martin0%
Ryan O'Kane0%
Alfie Lewis0%
Johannes Yli-Kokko0%
Hayden Muller0%
Nathan Shepperd0%
Sam Durrant0%
Senan Mullen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Pat Hoban20%
Daryl Horgan18%
John Martin17%
Cameron Elliott10%
Johannes Yli-Kokko10%
Ryan O'Kane8%
Daniel Kelly7%
Connor Malley0%
Andy Boyle0%
Darren Brownlie0%
Louie Annesley0%
Robbie Benson0%
Darragh Leahy0%
Robert McCourt0%
Keith Ward0%
Gregory Sloggett0%
Paul Doyle0%
Archie Davies0%
Alfie Lewis0%
Hayden Muller0%
Nathan Shepperd0%
Sam Durrant0%
Senan Mullen0%
Shamrock Rovers
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Neil Farrugia38%
Graham Burke33%
Markus Poom21%
Aaron Greene18%
Trevor Clarke17%
Lee Grace10%
Ronan Finn8%
Richie Towell8%
Liam Burt8%
Johnny Kenny8%
Dylan Watts7%
Rory Gaffney7%
Roberto Lopes6%
Simon Power0%
Jack Byrne0%
Dan Cleary0%
Sean Gannon0%
Sean Hoare0%
Alan Mannus0%
Leon Pohls0%
Sean Kavanagh0%
Darragh Nugent0%
Gary O'Neill0%
Conan Noonan0%
Naj Razi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ronan Finn42%
Sean Kavanagh36%
Graham Burke27%
Dan Cleary25%
Sean Gannon25%
Sean Hoare22%
Aaron Greene18%
Darragh Nugent17%
Richie Towell15%
Johnny Kenny15%
Markus Poom14%
Neil Farrugia12%
Lee Grace10%
Gary O'Neill8%
Liam Burt8%
Dylan Watts7%
Roberto Lopes6%
Rory Gaffney0%
Simon Power0%
Jack Byrne0%
Alan Mannus0%
Leon Pohls0%
Trevor Clarke0%
Conan Noonan0%
Naj Razi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Neil Farrugia25%
Markus Poom21%
Dylan Watts14%
Rory Gaffney13%
Sean Hoare11%
Liam Burt8%
Sean Kavanagh7%
Graham Burke0%
Richie Towell0%
Simon Power0%
Jack Byrne0%
Dan Cleary0%
Sean Gannon0%
Alan Mannus0%
Leon Pohls0%
Lee Grace0%
Roberto Lopes0%
Trevor Clarke0%
Ronan Finn0%
Darragh Nugent0%
Aaron Greene0%
Gary O'Neill0%
Conan Noonan0%
Johnny Kenny0%
Naj Razi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Rory Gaffney33%
Simon Power33%
Liam Burt23%
Johnny Kenny23%
Graham Burke20%
Richie Towell15%
Neil Farrugia12%
Sean Kavanagh7%
Roberto Lopes6%
Jack Byrne0%
Markus Poom0%
Dan Cleary0%
Sean Gannon0%
Sean Hoare0%
Alan Mannus0%
Leon Pohls0%
Lee Grace0%
Trevor Clarke0%
Ronan Finn0%
Darragh Nugent0%
Dylan Watts0%
Aaron Greene0%
Gary O'Neill0%
Conan Noonan0%
Naj Razi0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (31)
€7m
SPA (22)
€5m
BOH (23)
€4m
DC (22)
€4m
SHE (22)
€4m
DU (19)
€3m
SR (21)
€3m
DUN (20)
€3m
WAT (19)
€2m
CC (2)
€0m
Dundalk's squad is €4m less valuable than Shamrock Rovers's (€3m vs €7m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (14)
€3m
SPA (6)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (7)
€1m
SHE (8)
€1m
SR (10)
€1m
WAT (6)
€1m
DU (4)
€1m
DUN (3)
€0m
CC (2)
€0m
Dundalk's attack is €3m less valuable than Shamrock Rovers's (€0m vs €3m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (7)
€2m
SPA (7)
€1m
DC (6)
€1m
BOH (5)
€1m
SHE (4)
€1m
WAT (5)
€1m
DUN (6)
€1m
SR (3)
€1m
DU (4)
€0m
CC (0)
€0m
Dundalk's midfield is €1m less valuable than Shamrock Rovers's (€1m vs €2m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (10)
€2m
SPA (9)
€2m
DU (11)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (9)
€2m
DUN (11)
€2m
SHE (10)
€2m
SR (8)
€1m
WAT (8)
€1m
CC (0)
€0m
Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Ireland: Premier Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: Premier Division stats & trends →
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Derry City
St Patrick's Athl.
Shelbourne
Bohemians
Drogheda United
Sligo Rovers
Cork City
UCD
Waterford