This opponent (Shelbourne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shelbourne
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.33
1.31
1.56
1.29
1.07
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.50
0.25
1.75
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.58
1.29
1.67
1.50
1.50
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundalk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.7%
Under 1.5
27.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.8%
Under 2.5
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.4%
Under 3.5
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.1%
No
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
1-0
9.7%
0-0
9.4%
2-1
8.6%
0-1
8.1%
2-0
7.4%
1-2 â
7.4%
0-2
5.4%
Dundalk goals ↓
Shelbourne goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.4%
8.1%
5.4%
2.1%
0.6%
1
9.7%
14%
7.4%
2.8%
0.8%
2
7.4%
8.6%
5.0%
1.9%
0.6%
3
3.4%
3.9%
2.2%
0.9%
0.2%
4
1.1%
1.3%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dundalk goals (down), columns = Shelbourne goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Shamrock Rovers
1.96
St Patrick's Athl.
1.72
Bohemians
1.72
Dundalk
1.38
Shelbourne
1.30
Galway United
1.21
Derry City
1.17
Waterford
1.10
Drogheda United
0.97
Sligo Rovers
0.79
Dundalk is 0.08 points better than Shelbourne in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 1.30).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bohemians
1.72
Shamrock Rovers
1.64
Dundalk
1.59
St Patrick's Athl.
1.55
Derry City
1.41
Shelbourne
1.37
Waterford
1.34
Galway United
1.29
Drogheda United
1.14
Sligo Rovers
0.79
Dundalk is 0.22 goals better than Shelbourne in terms of goals scored per game (1.59 vs 1.37).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
St Patrick's Athl.
0.86
Shamrock Rovers
0.96
Bohemians
1.17
Derry City
1.38
Shelbourne
1.44
Galway United
1.50
Dundalk
1.55
Sligo Rovers
1.66
Drogheda United
1.66
Waterford
1.66
Dundalk is 0.11 goals worse than Shelbourne in terms of goals conceded per game (1.55 vs 1.44).
âąïļ Possession
Avg possession %
Shamrock Rovers
62%
Bohemians
59%
St Patrick's Athl.
55%
Derry City
54%
Shelbourne
53%
Dundalk
52%
Sligo Rovers
46%
Drogheda United
40%
Galway United
40%
Waterford
39%
Dundalk is 0.6 percentage points worse than Shelbourne in terms of average possession (52% vs 53%).
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Dundalk
For 7.1 · Against 4.5 · Total 11.6
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.9 · Total 4.9
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.2 · Against 12.1 · Total 21.3
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Shelbourne
For 4.8 · Against 4.5 · Total 9.3
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 1.8 · Total 5.0
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 10.3 · Total 22.0
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dundalk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.4
11.2
11.5
1.3
1.4
1.3
22.3
20.7
23.5
vs Stronger (1)
8.0
-
8.0
8.0
-
8.0
32.0
-
32.0
vs Similar (25)
11.6
11.2
12.0
2.3
2.8
1.9
21.5
20.7
22.3
vs Weaker (24)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
86%
83%
88%
16%
12%
19%
57%
50%
62%
% under line
14%
17%
12%
84%
88%
81%
43%
50%
38%
This opponent (Shelbourne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shelbourne
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.7
9.2
4.1
4.1
4.2
22.0
21.6
22.5
vs Stronger (9)
10.3
9.3
11.3
2.4
1.6
3.5
20.2
20.3
20.0
vs Similar (41)
9.4
9.8
8.9
4.5
4.7
4.3
22.4
21.8
22.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
49%
55%
43%
60%
58%
62%
56%
55%
57%
% under line
51%
45%
57%
40%
42%
38%
44%
45%
43%
This opponent (Dundalk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Waterford
10.9
Galway United
10.5
Sligo Rovers
10.5
Bohemians
10.3
Drogheda United
10.3
Dundalk
9.9
St Patrick's Athl.
9.7
Shelbourne
9.6
Derry City
8.8
Shamrock Rovers
8.6
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Derry City
5.5
Waterford
5.1
St Patrick's Athl.
5.1
Shamrock Rovers
5.1
Dundalk
4.9
Sligo Rovers
4.9
Galway United
4.8
Bohemians
4.7
Shelbourne
4.7
Drogheda United
4.5
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Derry City
23.7
Dundalk
23.7
Waterford
23.3
Galway United
23.1
Bohemians
22.8
Shamrock Rovers
22.8
St Patrick's Athl.
22.2
Shelbourne
21.4
Drogheda United
21.1
Sligo Rovers
20.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
57.7%
Under 9.5
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
73.1%
Under 3.5
26.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
50.0%
Under 21.5
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dundalk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.43
1.14
0.43
0.81
0.44
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.89
0.44
1.11
0.33
0.67
0.56
vs Weaker (11)
1.18
0.36
1.20
0.60
1.17
0.17
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Shelbourne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shelbourne
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.63
0.44
0.69
0.64
0.57
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
0.67
0.62
0.58
0.58
0.75
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundalk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dundalk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shelbourne over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shelbourne over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shelbourne over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dundalk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.77
1.64
0.57
0.81
0.94
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (18)
1.00
0.94
1.44
0.67
0.56
1.22
vs Weaker (11)
1.55
0.55
2.00
0.40
1.17
0.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Shelbourne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shelbourne
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.70
0.88
0.88
0.64
0.50
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.83
0.25
0.75
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.92
0.67
1.08
0.92
0.75
0.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundalk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dundalk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shelbourne over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shelbourne over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shelbourne over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 3.5
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 3.5 cards
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 1.5
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð― 13. Player market rates
Dundalk
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
D. Horgan33%
Gbemi Arubi32%
Cian Dillon20%
Danny Mullen18%
Tyreke Wilson17%
Trevor Clarke17%
Eoin Kenny14%
Ronan Teahan14%
D. McDaid7%
Bobby Burns7%
Shane Tracey6%
Robert Cornwall6%
Aodh Dervin4%
H. Groome4%
Conor O'Keeffe0%
Tom Grivosti0%
Keith Buckley0%
Conor Kearns0%
T. Wilson0%
Enda Minogue0%
Mayowa Animasahun0%
Harvey Warren0%
Leonardo Gaxha0%
Sean Spaight0%
Vinnie Leonard0%
Egor Vassenin0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Vinnie Leonard33%
Bobby Burns32%
Keith Buckley30%
Aodh Dervin28%
Robert Cornwall28%
Mayowa Animasahun28%
Tom Grivosti25%
Egor Vassenin25%
Harvey Warren21%
Cian Dillon20%
Conor O'Keeffe17%
Trevor Clarke17%
T. Wilson16%
Shane Tracey12%
D. Horgan11%
Ronan Teahan10%
Danny Mullen9%
Gbemi Arubi9%
Tyreke Wilson9%
H. Groome8%
D. McDaid7%
Eoin Kenny5%
Conor Kearns0%
Enda Minogue0%
Leonardo Gaxha0%
Sean Spaight0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tom Grivosti50%
D. Horgan30%
Conor O'Keeffe17%
Gbemi Arubi14%
Eoin Kenny10%
Tyreke Wilson9%
Aodh Dervin8%
T. Wilson5%
H. Groome4%
D. McDaid4%
Keith Buckley4%
Bobby Burns0%
Danny Mullen0%
Trevor Clarke0%
Robert Cornwall0%
Conor Kearns0%
Enda Minogue0%
Mayowa Animasahun0%
Harvey Warren0%
Cian Dillon0%
Leonardo Gaxha0%
Sean Spaight0%
Shane Tracey0%
Vinnie Leonard0%
Ronan Teahan0%
Egor Vassenin0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
D. Horgan41%
Cian Dillon40%
Gbemi Arubi32%
Danny Mullen18%
Trevor Clarke17%
Bobby Burns7%
Eoin Kenny5%
Ronan Teahan5%
H. Groome4%
D. McDaid4%
Conor O'Keeffe0%
Tom Grivosti0%
Robert Cornwall0%
Keith Buckley0%
Conor Kearns0%
Aodh Dervin0%
T. Wilson0%
Enda Minogue0%
Mayowa Animasahun0%
Harvey Warren0%
Leonardo Gaxha0%
Sean Spaight0%
Tyreke Wilson0%
Shane Tracey0%
Vinnie Leonard0%
Egor Vassenin0%
Shelbourne
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
John Martin38%
Harry Wood32%
D. Kelly24%
Ademipo Odubeko17%
James Norris14%
S. Moore12%
P. Barrett12%
Zeno Ibsen Rossi11%
Sean Boyd11%
Jack Henry-Francis11%
Alistair Coote9%
Sam Bone5%
W. Jarvis5%
Kerr McInroy5%
Rodrigo Freitas5%
Evan Caffrey4%
Ellis Chapman0%
S. Gannon0%
Jonathan Lunney0%
Odhran Casey0%
K. Ledwidge0%
Wessel Speel0%
Eddie Beach0%
Maill Lundgren0%
Milan Mbeng0%
James Roche0%
Daniel Ring0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
James Roche40%
Jonathan Lunney32%
John Martin31%
P. Barrett29%
S. Gannon29%
Kerr McInroy29%
D. Kelly28%
Rodrigo Freitas27%
Jack Henry-Francis26%
Maill Lundgren23%
Zeno Ibsen Rossi22%
Sean Boyd22%
Sam Bone20%
Evan Caffrey20%
Alistair Coote17%
Ademipo Odubeko17%
James Norris14%
Odhran Casey12%
S. Moore12%
Harry Wood9%
K. Ledwidge7%
Milan Mbeng7%
W. Jarvis5%
Wessel Speel4%
Ellis Chapman0%
Eddie Beach0%
Daniel Ring0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Maill Lundgren23%
Ademipo Odubeko17%
Harry Wood14%
John Martin12%
Kerr McInroy10%
Alistair Coote9%
Milan Mbeng7%
Jack Henry-Francis5%
Sam Bone5%
W. Jarvis5%
Rodrigo Freitas5%
Evan Caffrey4%
K. Ledwidge4%
Ellis Chapman0%
S. Gannon0%
D. Kelly0%
Jonathan Lunney0%
P. Barrett0%
Odhran Casey0%
James Norris0%
Wessel Speel0%
Zeno Ibsen Rossi0%
Eddie Beach0%
S. Moore0%
James Roche0%
Daniel Ring0%
Sean Boyd0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
John Martin38%
Harry Wood18%
Ademipo Odubeko17%
Milan Mbeng14%
Kerr McInroy10%
D. Kelly8%
P. Barrett6%
Sean Boyd6%
Alistair Coote4%
Evan Caffrey4%
Ellis Chapman0%
S. Gannon0%
Sam Bone0%
Jonathan Lunney0%
Odhran Casey0%
James Norris0%
K. Ledwidge0%
Wessel Speel0%
Zeno Ibsen Rossi0%
Jack Henry-Francis0%
Eddie Beach0%
Maill Lundgren0%
W. Jarvis0%
S. Moore0%
James Roche0%
Daniel Ring0%
Rodrigo Freitas0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (31)
€7m
SPA (22)
€5m
BOH (23)
€4m
DC (22)
€4m
SHE (22)
€4m
DU (19)
€3m
SR (21)
€3m
DUN (20)
€3m
GU (21)
€3m
WAT (19)
€2m
Dundalk's squad is €1m less valuable than Shelbourne's (€3m vs €4m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (14)
€3m
SPA (6)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (7)
€1m
SHE (8)
€1m
SR (10)
€1m
WAT (6)
€1m
DU (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
DUN (3)
€0m
Dundalk and Shelbourne have a similar attack value (both €0m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (7)
€2m
SPA (7)
€1m
DC (6)
€1m
BOH (5)
€1m
SHE (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (5)
€1m
DUN (6)
€1m
SR (3)
€1m
DU (4)
€0m
Dundalk and Shelbourne have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (10)
€2m
SPA (9)
€2m
DU (11)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (9)
€2m
DUN (11)
€2m
SHE (10)
€2m
SR (8)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (8)
€1m
Dundalk and Shelbourne have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Ireland: Premier Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: Premier Division stats & trends →
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Shamrock Rovers
St Patrick's Athl.
Bohemians
Derry City
Galway United
Waterford
Drogheda United
Sligo Rovers