PythiaFootballBETA
Dynamo Kyiv is the clear favourite to win against Kudrivka, with a 74% chance of taking the three points. This is largely due to their strong home form, where they have scored an average of 2.21 goals and conceded just 0.71, suggesting they can exploit Kudrivka's weakness at home. The model predicts a 19% chance of a draw and a 7% chance of an away win.
The expected total number of goals is 2.8, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a probability of 15.2%. Dynamo Kyiv's home scoring and conceding rates are impressive, while Kudrivka's away form is concerning, with an average of just 0.38 goals scored and 1.88 conceded against stronger opponents.
The model's selections include an Over 1.5 goals selection with a 77.2% chance of success, and a Home win selection with a 74.1% chance. Kudrivka's away form suggests they may struggle to score, with an Over 1.5 goals selection offering a significant edge.
The probabilities for the match result are: Home win 74%, Draw 19%, Away win 7%. The model's suggested picks are: Over 1.5 (77.2%), Home win (74.1%).
Dynamo Kyiv's 3-2 win extends their run of victories, having now won two games in a row. The actual result was a home win, as predicted by the Pythia model, which correctly identified the favourite, with a pre-match probability of 74%. The model's call was correct, having picked the home win as its selection. The model's selection of Home win hit, as did the selection of Over 1.5 goals, with a probability of 77.2%, which also came in.
Dynamo Kyiv| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.87 | 1.27 | 2.00 | 0.88 | 1.71 | 1.71 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 1.00 | 2.50 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (4) | 0.75 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (24) | 2.12 | 1.04 | 2.21 | 0.71 | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (-3pp vs league) | |||||
Kudrivka| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.03 | 1.50 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 0.67 | 1.60 |
| vs Stronger (17) | 0.82 | 1.76 | 1.22 | 1.67 | 0.38 | 1.88 |
| vs Similar (13) | 1.31 | 1.15 | 1.67 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.29 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-16pp vs league) | |||||
| Kudrivka goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 7.1% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 13% | 8.7% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 15% | 8.7% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 11% | 6.3% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 6.1% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Dynamo KyivKudrivkaDynamo Kyiv| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.9 | 10.6 | 9.3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 20.4 | 20.9 | 20.1 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 7.0 | - | 7.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 18.0 | - | 18.0 |
| vs Similar (10) | 10.2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 20.5 | 24.5 | 18.5 |
| vs Weaker (37) | 10.0 | 10.6 | 9.4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 20.5 | 20.2 | 20.8 |
| % over line | 53% | 57% | 50% | 26% | 26% | 26% | 37% | 36% | 38% |
| % under line | 47% | 43% | 50% | 74% | 74% | 74% | 63% | 64% | 62% |
Kudrivka| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.4 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 25.6 | 25.0 | 26.4 |
| vs Stronger (23) | 9.8 | 9.5 | 10.2 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 24.2 | 22.7 | 26.0 |
| vs Similar (21) | 8.9 | 9.0 | 8.7 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 27.5 | 27.8 | 27.0 |
| vs Weaker (6) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 42% | 45% | 38% | 20% | 25% | 15% | 84% | 73% | 100% |
| % under line | 58% | 55% | 62% | 80% | 75% | 85% | 16% | 27% | 0% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 77.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home win | 74.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/12/25 | A | 1-2 |
Dynamo Kyiv| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 13/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 5-6 | |
| 17/04/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 19/03/26 | A | 0-5 | |
| 13/03/26 | H | 2-1 |
Kudrivka| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 14/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 08/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 18/03/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 0-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Shakhtar Donetsk | 30 | 72 | 73% | 2.4 | 71 | 21 | +50 | 3.1 | 70% | 60% | 47% | 9.1 | 36% | 3.2 | 43% | 19.1 | 14% | 224 | 147 | 19 | 58 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 68% |
| 2 |  LNZ Cherkasy | 30 | 60 | 60% | 2.0 | 39 | 17 | +22 | 1.9 | 53% | 27% | 13% | 9.0 | 42% | 3.8 | 47% | 20.3 | 42% | 25 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 44% |
| 3 |  Polessya | 30 | 59 | 60% | 2.0 | 51 | 21 | +30 | 2.4 | 70% | 40% | 30% | 8.8 | 22% | 3.1 | 21% | 19.1 | 22% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 57% |
| 4 | Dynamo Kyiv | 30 | 57 | 57% | 1.9 | 66 | 36 | +30 | 3.4 | 80% | 70% | 43% | 10.8 | 62% | 3.1 | 38% | 20.2 | 38% | 85 | 31 | 24 | 30 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 62% |
| 5 |  Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 30 | 51 | 43% | 1.7 | 36 | 19 | +17 | 1.8 | 57% | 23% | 17% | 11.3 | 65% | 3.6 | 41% | 22.1 | 53% | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 56% |
| 6 |  Kolos Kovalivka | 30 | 49 | 43% | 1.6 | 30 | 25 | +5 | 1.8 | 57% | 27% | 13% | 7.9 | 35% | 4.2 | 65% | 26.5 | 88% | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 49% |
| 7 |  Kryvbas KR | 30 | 48 | 43% | 1.6 | 53 | 46 | +7 | 3.3 | 80% | 67% | 40% | 11.7 | 59% | 3.5 | 41% | 22.9 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 48% |
| 8 |  Zorya Luhansk | 30 | 46 | 40% | 1.5 | 42 | 36 | +6 | 2.6 | 73% | 53% | 33% | 10.6 | 62% | 3.2 | 38% | 22.4 | 50% | 13 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 52% |
| 9 |  Karpaty | 30 | 41 | 33% | 1.4 | 40 | 31 | +9 | 2.4 | 67% | 40% | 27% | 8.7 | 31% | 4.4 | 56% | 23.6 | 69% | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 49% |
| 10 |  Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 30 | 32 | 27% | 1.1 | 36 | 45 | -9 | 2.7 | 63% | 50% | 33% | 9.8 | 53% | 3.1 | 33% | 24.1 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 48% |
| 11 |  Veres Rivne | 30 | 31 | 23% | 1.0 | 26 | 40 | -14 | 2.2 | 63% | 33% | 23% | 10.5 | 58% | 3.3 | 42% | 22.7 | 58% | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 43% |
| 12 | Kudrivka | 32 | 30 | 22% | 0.9 | 34 | 50 | -16 | 2.6 | 75% | 50% | 34% | 9.4 | 40% | 3.8 | 50% | 25.1 | 80% | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 49% |
| 13 |  Obolon'-Brovar | 29 | 28 | 21% | 1.0 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 2.6 | 72% | 52% | 31% | 9.4 | 47% | 4.0 | 65% | 26.8 | 88% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 42% |
| 14 |  Ruh Lviv | 30 | 21 | 20% | 0.7 | 20 | 51 | -31 | 2.4 | 67% | 50% | 13% | 8.8 | 40% | 4.6 | 53% | 27.6 | 87% | 8 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 46% |
| 15 |  Oleksandria | 31 | 18 | 10% | 0.6 | 25 | 57 | -32 | 2.6 | 77% | 45% | 26% | 10.4 | 64% | 4.5 | 53% | 22.8 | 64% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 49% |
| 16 |  SK Poltava | 30 | 13 | 7% | 0.4 | 23 | 74 | -51 | 3.2 | 90% | 60% | 43% | 9.2 | 38% | 3.2 | 38% | 23.9 | 62% | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.8 | 2.5 | 40% |
| 17 |  Livyi Bereh | 2 | 4 | 50% | 2.0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 1.5 | 50% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 100% | 26.0 | 100% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 58% |
| 18 |  Ahrobiznes Volochysk | 2 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | +0 | 2.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 9.0 | 0% | 1.0 | 0% | 17.0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 42% |