Edinburgh City are the clear favorites, with a 43% chance of victory, a 30% chance of a draw and a 28% chance of an Annan Athletic win. The match is expected to see 2.4 goals on average, with the most likely total of two goals at 27%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 14.1% probability. Edinburgh’s home form shows 1.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded against similar opposition, while Annan Athletic’s away form is 1.5 scored and 2.0 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 5.5 cards at 83.9%, Over 19.5 fouls at 77.8%, Under 3.5 at 77.2%, Over 1.5 at 71.1% and Over 2.5 cards at 70.4%. The Under 11.5 corners pick, at 77.3%, is the only one marked as a miss. Edinburgh entered the game after a draw, while Annan came off a win.
Results analysis
The upset came as Edinburgh City, the pre-match favourite with a 43% chance of victory, fell short, losing 1-2 to Annan Athletic. The model’s call was wrong, and the final score confirmed the away win. The pre-match favourite had a 43% probability, while the model’s selection of a home win was incorrect. The model’s other picks were mixed: Under 5.5 cards hit at 83.9%, Over 19.5 fouls hit at 77.8%, Under 11.5 corners missed at 77.3%, Under 3.5 hit at 77.2%, Over 1.5 hit at 71.1%, and Over 2.5 cards hit at 70.4%. Edinburgh City’s recent form, a draw in their last match, was eclipsed by Annan Athletic’s win-returning run.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Edinburgh City win✗ Miss
42.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic win✓ Hit
27.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Edinburgh City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.10
1.67
1.27
1.53
0.93
vs Stronger (18)
1.78
0.78
2.29
0.43
1.45
1.00
vs Similar (8)
1.62
1.50
1.60
1.80
1.67
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
1.75
0.33
2.33
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.20
1.88
1.25
1.21
1.14
vs Stronger (18)
1.61
0.89
2.00
1.00
1.22
0.78
vs Similar (9)
1.78
1.78
2.00
1.60
1.50
2.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.33
1.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.1%
Under 1.5
28.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
43.8%
Under 2.5
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.8%
Under 3.5
77.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.0%
No
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
1-0
10.8%
0-0
10.1%
2-1
8.8%
2-0
8.3%
0-1
8.0%
1-2 ✓
6.8%
0-2
4.9%
Edinburgh City goals ↓
Annan Athletic goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
8.0%
4.9%
1.7%
0.5%
1
11%
14%
6.8%
2.4%
0.6%
2
8.3%
8.8%
4.6%
1.6%
0.4%
3
3.8%
4.0%
2.1%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.3%
1.4%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Edinburgh City goals (down), columns = Annan Athletic goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Peterhead
2.19
Clyde
2.17
Edinburgh City
1.86
Annan Athletic
1.83
Stirling
1.31
Cowdenbeath
1.19
Elgin
1.19
Queens Park
1.14
Albion Rvs
0.67
Berwick
0.53
Edinburgh City is 0.03 points better than Annan Athletic in terms of average points per game (1.86 vs 1.83).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Annan Athletic
1.94
Peterhead
1.81
Clyde
1.81
Edinburgh City
1.61
Elgin
1.44
Cowdenbeath
1.28
Stirling
1.22
Queens Park
1.17
Albion Rvs
0.81
Berwick
0.75
Edinburgh City is 0.33 goals worse than Annan Athletic in terms of goals scored per game (1.61 vs 1.94).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Peterhead
0.81
Clyde
0.83
Edinburgh City
0.86
Annan Athletic
1.08
Stirling
1.25
Cowdenbeath
1.28
Queens Park
1.33
Elgin
1.86
Albion Rvs
2.00
Berwick
2.53
Edinburgh City is 0.22 goals better than Annan Athletic in terms of goals conceded per game (0.86 vs 1.08).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Edinburgh City
For 5.2 · Against 3.7 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.8 · Against 12.6 · Total 25.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Annan Athletic
For 6.0 · Against 3.2 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 13.0 · Total 24.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Edinburgh City
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
8.7
10.0
3.7
3.6
3.7
24.3
24.0
24.6
vs Stronger (29)
8.6
8.2
8.8
3.9
3.4
4.2
25.0
23.7
26.0
vs Similar (16)
9.9
8.7
11.4
3.1
3.7
2.4
23.9
24.8
22.9
vs Weaker (5)
12.6
11.0
15.0
4.2
4.3
4.0
21.6
23.3
19.0
% over line
48%
40%
56%
58%
52%
64%
70%
76%
64%
% under line
52%
60%
44%
42%
48%
36%
30%
24%
36%
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
8.5
9.7
3.7
3.9
3.6
23.3
24.7
21.8
vs Stronger (29)
9.1
8.6
9.7
3.7
4.2
3.1
24.2
25.3
23.0
vs Similar (16)
8.9
8.9
9.0
3.6
3.4
3.8
21.3
22.7
20.2
vs Weaker (5)
9.6
7.3
13.0
4.6
3.7
6.0
24.2
26.3
21.0
% over line
36%
24%
48%
50%
60%
40%
74%
88%
60%
% under line
64%
76%
52%
50%
40%
60%
26%
12%
40%
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Albion Rvs
10.6
Queens Park
10.2
Stirling
10.1
Clyde
9.9
Elgin
9.8
Peterhead
9.4
Edinburgh City
9.4
Annan Athletic
9.1
Berwick
9.0
Cowdenbeath
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cowdenbeath
4.0
Clyde
3.8
Annan Athletic
3.7
Queens Park
3.7
Edinburgh City
3.7
Elgin
3.6
Peterhead
3.5
Stirling
3.4
Berwick
3.1
Albion Rvs
2.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
26.4
Edinburgh City
24.3
Cowdenbeath
23.5
Annan Athletic
23.3
Stirling
23.0
Berwick
22.7
Elgin
22.0
Clyde
21.3
Albion Rvs
21.1
Queens Park
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
45.2%
Under 9.5
54.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
49.3%
Under 3.5
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
63.1%
Under 21.5
36.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Edinburgh City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.43
0.47
0.47
0.67
0.40
vs Stronger (18)
0.67
0.28
0.71
0.00
0.64
0.45
vs Similar (8)
0.62
0.50
0.40
0.60
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (4)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.33
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.33
0.44
0.25
0.57
0.43
vs Stronger (18)
0.50
0.22
0.44
0.11
0.56
0.33
vs Similar (9)
0.56
0.56
0.40
0.40
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Edinburgh City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Edinburgh City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.67
1.20
0.80
0.87
0.53
vs Stronger (18)
1.11
0.50
1.57
0.43
0.82
0.55
vs Similar (8)
1.00
1.00
1.20
1.20
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.75
0.33
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.87
1.44
1.00
0.64
0.71
vs Stronger (18)
1.11
0.67
1.56
0.89
0.67
0.44
vs Similar (9)
1.22
1.22
1.60
1.20
0.75
1.25
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Edinburgh City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (2)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Edinburgh City and Annan Athletic have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (1)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Edinburgh City and Annan Athletic have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
Edinburgh City and Annan Athletic have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Edinburgh City and Annan Athletic have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Peterhead
Clyde
Stirling
Cowdenbeath
Elgin
Queens Park