Elgin and Clyde face a finely balanced contest, with the model favouring a home win. The odds are 36% for Elgin, 28% for a draw and 36% for Clyde. The average goal tally sits at 2.7, and the most likely total is two goals, with a 25% chance. The single score that the model deems most probable is 1-1, a 13.3% probability. Elgin, playing at home against a weaker side, averages 1.22 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Clyde, away against a stronger opponent, averages 1.65 goals scored and 1.06 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 5.5 cards at 87.7%, Over 1.5 at 77.0%, Under 11.5 corners at 76.8%, Over 19.5 fouls at 76.0% (miss), Under 4.5 cards at 75.4% (miss), Under 25.5 fouls at 71.0%, and Under 3.5 at 70.6% (miss). The match is poised to be a tight affair.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Elgin, failed to deliver as the game ended 1-3 in favour of Clyde, overturning the model’s 36% chance of a home win. The upset came after Elgin’s unbeaten run of five, yet Clyde, who had just drawn, capitalised on a stronger away form. The model’s other selections were mixed: Under 5.5 cards (87.7%) missed, Over 1.5 (77.0%) hit, Under 11.5 corners (76.8%) hit, Over 19.5 fouls (76.0%) missed, Under 4.5 cards (75.4%) missed, Under 25.5 fouls (71.0%) hit and Under 3.5 (70.6%) missed. The predicted total of 2.7 goals and the most likely 2-goal outcome were not realised, confirming the model’s pick was incorrect.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Elgin win✗ Miss
35.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Clyde win✓ Hit
36.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Elgin
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.50
1.50
1.12
1.14
1.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.64
1.36
1.86
1.29
1.43
1.43
vs Weaker (16)
1.06
1.62
1.22
1.00
0.86
2.43
Clean sheet %
27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Clyde) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Clyde
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.00
1.69
0.92
1.65
1.06
vs Stronger (30)
1.67
1.00
1.69
0.92
1.65
1.06
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.0%
Under 1.5
23.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.5%
Under 2.5
48.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
29.4%
Under 3.5
70.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.8%
No
43.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
1-2
8.3%
2-1
8.3%
0-0
7.7%
0-1
7.7%
1-0
7.6%
0-2
6.1%
2-0
6.0%
Elgin goals ↓
Clyde goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.7%
7.7%
6.1%
2.8%
1.0%
1
7.6%
13%
8.3%
3.8%
1.3%
2
6.0%
8.3%
5.7%
2.6%
0.9%
3
2.7%
3.8%
2.6%
1.2%
0.4%
4
0.9%
1.3%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Elgin goals (down), columns = Clyde goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Peterhead
2.19
Clyde
2.17
Edinburgh City
1.86
Annan Athletic
1.83
Stirling
1.31
Cowdenbeath
1.19
Elgin
1.19
Queens Park
1.14
Albion Rvs
0.67
Berwick
0.53
Elgin is 0.97 points worse than Clyde in terms of average points per game (1.19 vs 2.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Annan Athletic
1.94
Peterhead
1.81
Clyde
1.81
Edinburgh City
1.61
Elgin
1.44
Cowdenbeath
1.28
Stirling
1.22
Queens Park
1.17
Albion Rvs
0.81
Berwick
0.75
Elgin is 0.36 goals worse than Clyde in terms of goals scored per game (1.44 vs 1.81).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Peterhead
0.81
Clyde
0.83
Edinburgh City
0.86
Annan Athletic
1.08
Stirling
1.25
Cowdenbeath
1.28
Queens Park
1.33
Elgin
1.86
Albion Rvs
2.00
Berwick
2.53
Elgin is 1.03 goals worse than Clyde in terms of goals conceded per game (1.86 vs 0.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Elgin
For 6.2 · Against 4.0 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 1.5 · Total 2.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 12.4 · Total 23.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Clyde
For 5.7 · Against 3.4 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.2 · Against 12.0 · Total 22.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Elgin
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
9.5
10.5
3.4
3.1
3.6
22.6
22.6
22.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
9.4
9.1
9.8
3.0
2.8
3.2
22.4
23.0
21.9
vs Weaker (25)
10.5
9.8
11.2
3.8
3.5
4.1
22.7
22.2
23.2
% over line
58%
50%
67%
42%
36%
48%
52%
50%
54%
% under line
42%
50%
33%
58%
64%
52%
48%
50%
46%
This opponent (Clyde) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Clyde
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.7
9.6
3.7
4.0
3.5
22.2
22.7
21.8
vs Stronger (50)
10.1
10.7
9.6
3.7
4.0
3.5
22.2
22.7
21.8
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
46%
50%
42%
56%
64%
48%
56%
54%
58%
% under line
54%
50%
58%
44%
36%
52%
44%
46%
42%
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Albion Rvs
10.5
Stirling
10.3
Queens Park
10.2
Clyde
10.1
Elgin
10.0
Edinburgh City
9.5
Peterhead
9.5
Berwick
9.2
Annan Athletic
9.1
Cowdenbeath
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cowdenbeath
4.0
Clyde
3.9
Queens Park
3.7
Annan Athletic
3.6
Peterhead
3.6
Elgin
3.5
Edinburgh City
3.5
Stirling
3.2
Albion Rvs
3.0
Berwick
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
27.0
Edinburgh City
24.4
Cowdenbeath
24.0
Annan Athletic
23.6
Stirling
23.4
Elgin
22.6
Berwick
22.4
Clyde
22.2
Albion Rvs
20.9
Queens Park
19.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
45.8%
Under 9.5
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
43.1%
Under 3.5
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
60.8%
Under 21.5
39.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Elgin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.73
0.69
0.62
0.50
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.64
0.57
0.71
0.71
0.57
vs Weaker (16)
0.56
0.81
0.78
0.56
0.29
1.14
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Clyde) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Clyde
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.40
0.85
0.31
0.71
0.47
vs Stronger (30)
0.77
0.40
0.85
0.31
0.71
0.47
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Elgin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Elgin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.77
0.81
0.50
0.64
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.00
0.71
1.29
0.57
0.71
0.86
vs Weaker (16)
0.50
0.81
0.44
0.44
0.57
1.29
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Clyde) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Clyde
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.60
0.85
0.62
0.94
0.59
vs Stronger (30)
0.90
0.60
0.85
0.62
0.94
0.59
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Elgin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: League Two 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Peterhead
Edinburgh City
Annan Athletic
Stirling
Cowdenbeath
Queens Park