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Elgin vs Cowdenbeath Result & Analysis

Date: 12/01/2019
Time: 00:00
Final 1-4
Elgin
Elgin
Vs
39%
29%
32%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Cowdenbeath
Cowdenbeath
Scotland: League Two
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Elgin win✗ Miss
39.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cowdenbeath win✓ Hit
31.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

ElginElgin

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L21W24L13L25L42W14L40W03L02LH·ANN27/10A·COW03/11H·BER10/11H·CLY17/11A·STI01/12H·ALB08/12A·EDI15/12A·QUE22/12H·PET29/12A·ANN05/01
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.771.431.571.381.94
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)1.871.472.001.711.751.25
vs Weaker (15)0.932.070.861.431.002.62
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Cowdenbeath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L30W12L20W20W11D11D02L12L20WA·ELG13/10A·BER27/10H·ELG03/11A·ANN10/11H·QUE27/11A·ALB01/12H·CLY08/12H·EDI22/12A·STI29/12H·BER05/01
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.301.181.411.001.15
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)1.331.271.671.440.831.00
vs Weaker (15)0.871.330.621.381.141.29
Clean sheet %27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%017%127%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.6%
Under 1.5
26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.9%
Under 2.5
53.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
25.4%
Under 3.5
74.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.1%
No
46.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
1-0
9.3%
0-0
9.1%
2-1
8.5%
0-1
8.1%
1-2
7.6%
2-0
7.1%
0-2
5.6%
Elgin goals ↓
Cowdenbeath goals →
01234
09.1%8.1%5.6%2.2%0.7%
19.3%14%7.6%3.0%0.9%
27.1%8.5%5.1%2.1%0.6%
33.2%3.9%2.3%0.9%0.3%
41.1%1.3%0.8%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Elgin goals (down), columns = Cowdenbeath goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Peterhead
2.19
Clyde
2.17
Edinburgh City
1.86
Annan Athletic
1.83
Stirling
1.31
Cowdenbeath
1.19
Elgin
1.19
Queens Park
1.14
Albion Rvs
0.67
Berwick
0.53
Elgin and Cowdenbeath are level in average points per game (both 1.19).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Annan Athletic
1.94
Peterhead
1.81
Clyde
1.81
Edinburgh City
1.61
Elgin
1.44
Cowdenbeath
1.28
Stirling
1.22
Queens Park
1.17
Albion Rvs
0.81
Berwick
0.75
Elgin is 0.17 goals better than Cowdenbeath in terms of goals scored per game (1.44 vs 1.28).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Peterhead
0.81
Clyde
0.83
Edinburgh City
0.86
Annan Athletic
1.08
Stirling
1.25
Cowdenbeath
1.28
Queens Park
1.33
Elgin
1.86
Albion Rvs
2.00
Berwick
2.53
Elgin is 0.58 goals worse than Cowdenbeath in terms of goals conceded per game (1.86 vs 1.28).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

ElginElgin

For 4.5 · Against 4.9 · Total 9.4

ðŸšĐ Corners

1402936525589523937362119571314512108A·ANNH·PETA·QUEA·EDIH·ALBA·STIH·CLYH·BERA·COWH·ANN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.7

ðŸŸĻ Cards

60312142212112421123114363336252A·ANNH·PETA·QUEA·EDIH·ALBA·STIH·CLYH·BERA·COWH·ANN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.3 · Against 11.6 · Total 21.9

⚠ïļ Fouls

31081512131286111212111077201161791223252017242114312321A·ANNH·PETA·QUEA·EDIH·ALBA·STIH·CLYH·BERA·COWH·ANN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

For 3.6 · Against 4.4 · Total 8.0

ðŸšĐ Corners

1401356322510442273724444115714691068H·BERA·STIH·EDIH·CLYA·ALBH·QUEA·ANNH·ELGA·BERA·ELG
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 1.6 · Total 4.3

ðŸŸĻ Cards

802242221221242325324443436582H·BERA·STIH·EDIH·CLYA·ALBH·QUEA·ANNH·ELGA·BERA·ELG
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.9 · Against 9.3 · Total 23.2

⚠ïļ Fouls

34016118111410166710915185176211313627192422172423233419H·BERA·STIH·EDIH·CLYA·ALBH·QUEA·ANNH·ELGA·BERA·ELG
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

ElginElgin

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.89.210.33.63.43.722.322.821.8
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (24)9.29.19.43.43.23.622.723.621.8
vs Weaker (26)10.39.411.13.73.73.821.822.021.7
% over line56%46%65%42%38%46%52%54%50%
% under line44%54%35%58%62%54%48%46%50%
This opponent (Cowdenbeath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)8.98.39.64.03.94.123.723.524.0
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (23)8.68.48.94.03.84.223.323.323.3
vs Weaker (27)9.28.210.14.04.04.024.123.824.4
% over line40%35%46%58%50%67%64%73%54%
% under line60%65%54%42%50%33%36%27%46%
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Albion Rvs
10.6
Queens Park
10.2
Stirling
10.2
Clyde
10.0
Elgin
9.8
Edinburgh City
9.4
Peterhead
9.4
Annan Athletic
9.1
Berwick
9.0
Cowdenbeath
8.9

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Cowdenbeath
4.0
Clyde
3.8
Annan Athletic
3.7
Queens Park
3.7
Edinburgh City
3.6
Peterhead
3.6
Elgin
3.6
Stirling
3.4
Berwick
3.0
Albion Rvs
2.9

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
26.6
Edinburgh City
24.5
Cowdenbeath
23.7
Annan Athletic
23.4
Stirling
22.9
Berwick
22.7
Elgin
22.3
Clyde
21.7
Albion Rvs
21.1
Queens Park
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
48.5%
Under 9.5
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
50.3%
Under 3.5
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
62.7%
Under 21.5
37.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ElginElgin

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L01L02L02L23L21W01L20W02L01LH·ANN27/10A·COW03/11H·BER10/11H·CLY17/11A·STI01/12H·ALB08/12A·EDI15/12A·QUE22/12H·PET29/12A·ANN05/01
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.870.640.930.690.81
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.800.730.711.000.880.50
vs Weaker (15)0.531.000.570.860.501.12
Clean sheet %47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Cowdenbeath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D20W10W00D00D11D01L01L12L10WA·ELG13/10A·BER27/10H·ELG03/11A·ANN10/11H·QUE27/11A·ALB01/12H·CLY08/12H·EDI22/12A·STI29/12H·BER05/01
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.630.650.650.540.62
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.800.470.890.440.670.50
vs Weaker (15)0.400.800.380.880.430.71
Clean sheet %47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Elgin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cowdenbeath over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cowdenbeath over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cowdenbeath over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ElginElgin

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D20W22D11D02L21W13L20W01L01LH·ANN27/10A·COW03/11H·BER10/11H·CLY17/11A·STI01/12H·ALB08/12A·EDI15/12A·QUE22/12H·PET29/12A·ANN05/01
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.900.790.640.691.12
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)1.070.731.290.710.880.75
vs Weaker (15)0.401.070.290.570.501.50
Clean sheet %40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Cowdenbeath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L10W02L20W20W00D10W01L00D10WA·ELG13/10A·BER27/10H·ELG03/11A·ANN10/11H·QUE27/11A·ALB01/12H·CLY08/12H·EDI22/12A·STI29/12H·BER05/01
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.670.530.760.460.54
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.530.800.781.000.170.50
vs Weaker (15)0.470.530.250.500.710.57
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Elgin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cowdenbeath over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cowdenbeath over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cowdenbeath over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 5.5 cards83.2%-------✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls77.5%-------✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners74.7%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.574.6%-------✗ Miss
Over 1.573.6%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards71.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (2)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (1)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
4
ELG wins
3
Draws
1
COW wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Elgin vs Cowdenbeath · H/A from ELG
DateH/AGameScore
03/11/18ACowdenbeath Vs ELG1-2
13/10/18HELG Vs Cowdenbeath3-1
17/03/18ACowdenbeath Vs ELG3-1
13/01/18HELG Vs Cowdenbeath1-0
11/11/17ACowdenbeath Vs ELG1-3
05/08/17HELG Vs Cowdenbeath1-1
06/05/17HELG Vs Cowdenbeath0-0
14/03/17ACowdenbeath Vs ELG1-1

ElginElgin

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/01/19AAnnan Athletic Vs ELG2-0
29/12/18HELG Vs Peterhead0-3
22/12/18AQueens Park Vs ELG0-4
15/12/18AEdinburgh City Vs ELG4-1
08/12/18HELG Vs Albion Rvs4-2
01/12/18AStirling Vs ELG5-2
17/11/18HELG Vs Clyde1-3
10/11/18HELG Vs Berwick2-4
03/11/18ACowdenbeath Vs ELG1-2
27/10/18HELG Vs Annan Athletic0-1

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/01/19HCOW Vs Berwick2-0
29/12/18AStirling Vs COW2-1
22/12/18HCOW Vs Edinburgh City0-2
08/12/18HCOW Vs Clyde1-1
01/12/18AAlbion Rvs Vs COW1-1
27/11/18HCOW Vs Queens Park2-0
10/11/18AAnnan Athletic Vs COW0-2
03/11/18HCOW Vs Elgin1-2
27/10/18ABerwick Vs COW0-3
13/10/18AElgin Vs COW3-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Elgin
Elgin
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 3 Wins / 0 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWLL1.34
HomeLLLWL1.75
AwayWLLWL0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%54%27%
AVG goals3.342.923.73
Over 1.5 %88%83%92%
Over 2.5 %66%58%73%
Over 3.5 %42%25%58%
Scored1.501.671.35
Conceded1.841.252.38
BTTS52%46%58%
Clean Sheet22%29%15%
Corners9.809.2510.31
Cards3.563.423.69
Cowdenbeath
Cowdenbeath
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLLW0.80
HomeLWDLW0.88
AwayLWWDL0.71
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %18%23%12%
AVG goals2.362.771.92
Over 1.5 %76%92%58%
Over 2.5 %38%50%25%
Over 3.5 %20%27%12%
Scored0.881.000.75
Conceded1.481.771.17
BTTS46%50%42%
Clean Sheet18%19%17%
Corners8.928.319.58
Cards3.983.884.08

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1PeterheadPeterhead3679
67%
2.2
6529+36
2.6
78%
50%
22%
9.7
42%
3.5
47%
24.2
69%
0
0001.80.8
-
2ClydeClyde3678
67%
2.2
6530+35
2.6
72%
50%
22%
8.9
33%
3.3
44%
19.7
36%
0
0001.80.8
-
3Edinburgh CityEdinburgh City3667
56%
1.9
5831+27
2.5
69%
44%
28%
8.6
42%
4.0
61%
24.6
75%
0
0001.60.9
-
4Annan AthleticAnnan Athletic3666
56%
1.8
7039+31
3.0
89%
72%
31%
10.1
58%
3.8
50%
23.6
78%
0
0001.91.1
-
5StirlingStirling3647
36%
1.3
4445-1
2.5
64%
50%
22%
11.0
64%
3.4
47%
21.9
50%
0
0001.21.2
-
6CowdenbeathCowdenbeath3643
33%
1.2
4646+0
2.6
75%
44%
22%
9.2
47%
3.7
50%
22.2
56%
0
0001.31.3
-
7ElginElgin3643
36%
1.2
5267-15
3.3
86%
69%
36%
9.9
50%
2.9
28%
21.2
50%
0
0001.41.9
-
8Queens ParkQueens Park3641
28%
1.1
4248-6
2.5
81%
44%
22%
9.4
44%
3.4
36%
20.6
44%
0
0001.21.3
-
9
AR
Albion Rvs
3624
17%
0.7
2972-43
2.8
78%
50%
31%
10.6
64%
2.6
25%
21.7
53%
0
0000.82.0
-
10
B
Berwick
3619
14%
0.5
2791-64
3.3
86%
64%
31%
9.2
44%
3.4
50%
23.8
67%
0
0000.82.5
-
Scotland: League Two 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →

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