This opponent (Chateauroux) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chateauroux
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.23
1.12
1.38
0.86
1.07
vs Stronger (15)
0.87
1.60
1.12
1.88
0.57
1.29
vs Similar (15)
1.13
0.87
1.12
0.88
1.14
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Estac Troyes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
69.3%
Under 1.5
30.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
41.8%
Under 2.5
58.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.2%
Under 3.5
78.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
44.3%
No
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0 ✓
13.7%
1-1
12.9%
2-0
11.7%
0-0
10.7%
2-1
9.2%
0-1
6.3%
3-0
6.1%
3-1
4.8%
Estac Troyes goals ↓
Chateauroux goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
6.3%
2.9%
0.8%
0.2%
1
14%
13%
4.6%
1.2%
0.2%
2
12%
9.2%
3.6%
0.9%
0.2%
3
6.1%
4.8%
1.9%
0.5%
0.1%
4
2.4%
1.9%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Estac Troyes goals (down), columns = Chateauroux goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Metz
2.13
Stade Brestois 29
1.95
Estac Troyes
1.87
Paris FC
1.71
Lens
1.66
Lorient
1.66
Le Havre
1.42
Orleans
1.37
Grenoble
1.32
Clermont Foot
1.26
Chateauroux
1.26
Niort
1.24
Valenciennes
1.13
Nancy
1.11
Auxerre
1.08
Sochaux
1.08
Ajaccio
1.04
Beziers
1.00
Red Star
0.79
Estac Troyes is 0.61 points better than Chateauroux in terms of average points per game (1.87 vs 1.26).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stade Brestois 29
1.68
Metz
1.58
Valenciennes
1.37
Orleans
1.34
Estac Troyes
1.34
Lorient
1.34
Lens
1.29
Le Havre
1.18
Clermont Foot
1.16
Grenoble
1.13
Chateauroux
0.97
Paris FC
0.95
Nancy
0.95
Auxerre
0.89
Niort
0.89
Beziers
0.87
Ajaccio
0.78
Red Star
0.74
Sochaux
0.71
Estac Troyes is 0.37 goals better than Chateauroux in terms of goals scored per game (1.34 vs 0.97).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Paris FC
0.58
Metz
0.61
Lens
0.74
Estac Troyes
0.74
Stade Brestois 29
0.92
Auxerre
0.95
Clermont Foot
0.97
Le Havre
1.05
Niort
1.08
Lorient
1.08
Chateauroux
1.11
Sochaux
1.13
Grenoble
1.24
Ajaccio
1.30
Beziers
1.32
Nancy
1.32
Orleans
1.39
Red Star
1.53
Valenciennes
1.61
Estac Troyes is 0.37 goals better than Chateauroux in terms of goals conceded per game (0.74 vs 1.11).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Estac Troyes
For 3.7 · Against 5.4 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.9 · Against 15.1 · Total 28.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Chateauroux
For 6.2 · Against 5.1 · Total 11.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 12.2 · Total 23.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Estac Troyes
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
9.4
10.7
3.8
3.8
3.7
25.7
25.8
25.6
vs Stronger (12)
12.1
10.8
13.3
3.7
3.0
4.3
23.2
21.8
24.5
vs Similar (24)
10.3
9.6
10.9
3.6
3.8
3.5
25.1
25.4
24.8
vs Weaker (14)
7.8
7.7
7.9
4.1
4.6
3.6
28.9
29.7
28.0
% over line
50%
42%
58%
50%
50%
50%
80%
79%
81%
% under line
50%
58%
42%
50%
50%
50%
20%
21%
19%
This opponent (Chateauroux) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chateauroux
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
11.5
9.7
3.4
3.2
3.6
28.8
25.2
32.6
vs Stronger (23)
10.5
11.6
9.4
3.3
3.1
3.5
26.4
24.2
28.3
vs Similar (27)
10.7
11.3
10.0
3.4
3.2
3.7
31.0
26.0
37.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
64%
73%
54%
42%
42%
42%
85%
71%
100%
% under line
36%
27%
46%
58%
58%
58%
15%
29%
0%
This opponent (Estac Troyes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Chateauroux
10.6
Le Havre
10.4
Stade Brestois 29
10.3
Estac Troyes
10.0
Lens
9.8
Niort
9.5
Auxerre
9.5
Metz
9.5
Clermont Foot
9.4
Sochaux
9.4
Grenoble
9.3
Lorient
9.0
Orleans
8.9
Valenciennes
8.8
Ajaccio
8.6
Red Star
8.6
Nancy
8.2
Paris FC
8.2
Beziers
8.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Beziers
4.9
Ajaccio
4.7
Lorient
4.6
Niort
4.2
Paris FC
4.2
Orleans
4.2
Valenciennes
4.1
Nancy
4.1
Lens
4.0
Metz
3.9
Stade Brestois 29
3.8
Sochaux
3.8
Estac Troyes
3.8
Grenoble
3.7
Clermont Foot
3.7
Red Star
3.7
Le Havre
3.7
Chateauroux
3.4
Auxerre
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Sochaux
30.7
Lorient
30.5
Beziers
30.1
Ajaccio
29.6
Paris FC
29.4
Nancy
29.3
Le Havre
29.2
Valenciennes
29.2
Chateauroux
28.8
Lens
28.3
Niort
28.1
Stade Brestois 29
27.7
Red Star
27.4
Grenoble
27.3
Orleans
26.9
Metz
26.1
Estac Troyes
25.7
Auxerre
25.2
Clermont Foot
24.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
41.7%
Under 9.5
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
56.9%
Under 3.5
43.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
89.2%
Under 21.5
10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Estac Troyes
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.50
0.43
0.50
0.44
0.50
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.75
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.43
0.50
0.43
0.43
0.43
0.57
vs Weaker (12)
0.58
0.42
0.60
0.60
0.57
0.29
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Chateauroux) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chateauroux
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.53
0.44
0.62
0.21
0.43
vs Stronger (15)
0.40
0.67
0.50
0.75
0.29
0.57
vs Similar (15)
0.27
0.40
0.38
0.50
0.14
0.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Estac Troyes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Estac Troyes over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estac Troyes over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estac Troyes over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chateauroux over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chateauroux over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chateauroux over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Estac Troyes
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.53
0.79
0.64
0.69
0.44
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.25
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.36
0.43
0.43
0.71
0.29
vs Weaker (12)
1.08
0.50
1.40
0.80
0.86
0.29
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Chateauroux) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chateauroux
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.70
0.69
0.75
0.64
0.64
vs Stronger (15)
0.47
0.93
0.62
1.12
0.29
0.71
vs Similar (15)
0.87
0.47
0.75
0.38
1.00
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Estac Troyes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Estac Troyes over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estac Troyes over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estac Troyes over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chateauroux over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chateauroux over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chateauroux over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Estac Troyes · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tawfik Bentayeb48%
Martin Adeline32%
Renaud Ripart29%
Kandet Diawara23%
Jaures Assoumou21%
Mounaim El Idrissy14%
Merwan Ifnaoui14%
Mouhamed Diop12%
Antoine Mille9%
Mathys Detourbet9%
Elijah Olaniyi Odede8%
Anis Ouzenadji4%
Ismaël Boura4%
Paolo Gozzi0%
Alexandre Phliponeau0%
Adrien Monfray0%
Hillel Konaté0%
Nicolas Lemaitre0%
Xavier Chavalerin0%
Lucas Maronnier0%
Hugo Gambor0%
Yvann Titi0%
Roman Murcy0%
Sankhoun Diawara0%
Amadou Diakité0%
Noah Donkor0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Amadou Diakité33%
Nicolas Lemaitre30%
Adrien Monfray26%
Hugo Gambor26%
Lucas Maronnier22%
Mounaim El Idrissy21%
Paolo Gozzi20%
Xavier Chavalerin20%
Antoine Mille18%
Jaures Assoumou16%
Martin Adeline15%
Ismaël Boura14%
Sankhoun Diawara13%
Anis Ouzenadji13%
Renaud Ripart12%
Mouhamed Diop12%
Mathys Detourbet11%
Tawfik Bentayeb10%
Hillel Konaté8%
Kandet Diawara8%
Alexandre Phliponeau7%
Yvann Titi5%
Merwan Ifnaoui3%
Roman Murcy0%
Elijah Olaniyi Odede0%
Noah Donkor0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Martin Adeline29%
Noah Donkor20%
Yvann Titi18%
Mathys Detourbet17%
Merwan Ifnaoui14%
Antoine Mille12%
Tawfik Bentayeb10%
Mouhamed Diop9%
Kandet Diawara8%
Elijah Olaniyi Odede8%
Mounaim El Idrissy7%
Ismaël Boura7%
Sankhoun Diawara7%
Hugo Gambor5%
Jaures Assoumou5%
Lucas Maronnier4%
Anis Ouzenadji4%
Paolo Gozzi0%
Alexandre Phliponeau0%
Adrien Monfray0%
Hillel Konaté0%
Renaud Ripart0%
Nicolas Lemaitre0%
Xavier Chavalerin0%
Roman Murcy0%
Amadou Diakité0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tawfik Bentayeb42%
Jaures Assoumou32%
Mathys Detourbet17%
Kandet Diawara15%
Renaud Ripart12%
Mouhamed Diop12%
Elijah Olaniyi Odede8%
Merwan Ifnaoui7%
Martin Adeline6%
Lucas Maronnier4%
Mounaim El Idrissy4%
Antoine Mille3%
Paolo Gozzi0%
Alexandre Phliponeau0%
Adrien Monfray0%
Hillel Konaté0%
Nicolas Lemaitre0%
Xavier Chavalerin0%
Ismaël Boura0%
Hugo Gambor0%
Yvann Titi0%
Anis Ouzenadji0%
Roman Murcy0%
Sankhoun Diawara0%
Amadou Diakité0%
Noah Donkor0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEN (27)
€187m
PF (37)
€176m
LOR (24)
€87m
AUX (29)
€84m
SB2 (20)
€64m
LH (25)
€55m
MET (26)
€43m
ET (23)
€36m
CF (21)
€15m
NAN (26)
€13m
GRE (27)
€12m
SOC (20)
€7m
VAL (21)
€4m
ORL (16)
€4m
CHA (5)
€1m
Estac Troyes's squad is €35m more valuable than Chateauroux's (€36m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PF (13)
€59m
LEN (8)
€52m
SB2 (6)
€25m
AUX (11)
€23m
LOR (8)
€20m
MET (11)
€17m
LH (10)
€9m
ET (7)
€7m
GRE (12)
€5m
NAN (9)
€5m
SOC (8)
€3m
CF (5)
€2m
ORL (6)
€2m
VAL (8)
€1m
CHA (1)
€0m
Estac Troyes's attack is €7m more valuable than Chateauroux's (€7m vs €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PF (7)
€54m
LOR (5)
€32m
AUX (5)
€28m
LEN (5)
€24m
LH (5)
€23m
SB2 (6)
€20m
MET (5)
€18m
ET (6)
€11m
GRE (5)
€3m
CF (4)
€3m
NAN (6)
€2m
SOC (3)
€1m
VAL (3)
€1m
ORL (4)
€1m
CHA (2)
€0m
Estac Troyes's midfield is €11m more valuable than Chateauroux's (€11m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEN (14)
€112m
PF (17)
€62m
LOR (11)
€35m
AUX (13)
€33m
LH (10)
€23m
SB2 (8)
€19m
ET (10)
€17m
CF (12)
€10m
MET (10)
€8m
NAN (11)
€6m
GRE (10)
€4m
SOC (9)
€3m
VAL (10)
€2m
ORL (6)
€2m
CHA (2)
€0m
Estac Troyes's defence is €17m more valuable than Chateauroux's (€17m vs €0m).
France: Ligue 2 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 2 stats & trends →
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Metz
Ajaccio
Stade Brestois 29
Paris FC
Lens
Lorient
Le Havre
Orleans
Grenoble
Clermont Foot
Niort
Valenciennes
Nancy
Auxerre
Sochaux