This opponent (Lille) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lille
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
0.93
2.12
0.94
1.14
0.93
vs Stronger (1)
3.00
4.00
-
-
3.00
4.00
vs Similar (14)
1.50
1.00
2.00
1.29
1.00
0.71
vs Weaker (15)
1.73
0.67
2.22
0.67
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Estac Troyes) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.0%
Under 1.5
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.4%
@ 1.36-23.3%
Under 2.5
53.6%
@ 3.14+23.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.9%
Under 3.5
75.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.3%
No
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
12.4%
1-1 ✓
12.4%
0-2
11.5%
1-2
9.6%
0-0
9.1%
0-3
6.5%
1-0
5.5%
1-3
5.4%
Estac Troyes goals ↓
Lille goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.1%
12%
11%
6.5%
2.8%
1
5.5%
12%
9.6%
5.4%
2.3%
2
2.8%
4.7%
4.0%
2.3%
1.0%
3
0.8%
1.3%
1.1%
0.6%
0.3%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Estac Troyes goals (down), columns = Lille goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.24
Lens
2.21
Marseille
1.92
Rennes
1.79
Lille
1.76
Monaco
1.71
Lyon
1.63
Clermont Foot
1.55
Nice
1.53
Lorient
1.45
Reims
1.34
Montpellier
1.32
Toulouse
1.26
Stade Brestois 29
1.16
Strasbourg
1.05
Nantes
0.95
Auxerre
0.92
Ajaccio
0.68
Estac Troyes
0.63
Angers
0.47
Estac Troyes is 1.13 points worse than Lille in terms of average points per game (0.63 vs 1.76).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.34
Monaco
1.84
Rennes
1.82
Lens
1.79
Marseille
1.76
Lille
1.71
Montpellier
1.71
Lyon
1.71
Lorient
1.37
Strasbourg
1.34
Toulouse
1.34
Nice
1.26
Estac Troyes
1.18
Clermont Foot
1.18
Reims
1.18
Stade Brestois 29
1.16
Nantes
0.97
Auxerre
0.92
Angers
0.87
Ajaccio
0.61
Estac Troyes is 0.53 goals worse than Lille in terms of goals scored per game (1.18 vs 1.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lens
0.76
Nice
0.97
Rennes
1.03
Paris Saint Germain
1.05
Marseille
1.05
Lille
1.16
Reims
1.18
Lyon
1.24
Clermont Foot
1.29
Lorient
1.39
Stade Brestois 29
1.42
Nantes
1.45
Toulouse
1.50
Monaco
1.53
Strasbourg
1.55
Montpellier
1.63
Auxerre
1.66
Ajaccio
1.95
Estac Troyes
2.13
Angers
2.13
Estac Troyes is 0.97 goals worse than Lille in terms of goals conceded per game (2.13 vs 1.16).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Estac Troyes
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Lille
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Estac Troyes
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
10.1
9.2
1.3
1.6
1.0
25.5
24.1
27.0
vs Stronger (24)
10.7
10.8
10.7
1.2
1.7
0.7
24.7
23.5
26.3
vs Similar (23)
8.6
9.3
7.5
1.2
1.6
0.8
25.0
25.0
25.0
vs Weaker (3)
8.0
-
8.0
2.7
0.0
4.0
33.0
-
33.0
% over line
62%
57%
67%
16%
16%
16%
85%
86%
83%
% under line
38%
43%
33%
84%
84%
84%
15%
14%
17%
This opponent (Lille) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lille
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
9.7
10.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
24.0
23.6
24.5
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
11.3
12.2
10.0
1.3
1.6
1.1
22.3
21.8
23.0
vs Weaker (25)
8.5
6.3
10.7
1.3
1.1
1.6
26.0
26.0
26.0
% over line
54%
43%
67%
22%
23%
21%
62%
57%
67%
% under line
46%
57%
33%
78%
77%
79%
38%
43%
33%
This opponent (Estac Troyes) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Nantes
10.5
Rennes
10.3
Lens
10.2
Montpellier
10.1
Toulouse
10.0
Lille
9.9
Monaco
9.9
Reims
9.8
Strasbourg
9.8
Stade Brestois 29
9.7
Nice
9.6
Marseille
9.6
Lyon
9.4
Paris Saint Germain
9.3
Estac Troyes
9.3
Lorient
9.1
Angers
9.0
Auxerre
9.0
Clermont Foot
9.0
Ajaccio
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lille
5.0
Lens
4.7
Estac Troyes
4.5
Montpellier
4.4
Monaco
4.4
Paris Saint Germain
4.4
Marseille
4.2
Ajaccio
4.1
Stade Brestois 29
4.1
Angers
4.0
Reims
4.0
Lorient
4.0
Strasbourg
3.9
Nantes
3.9
Nice
3.9
Clermont Foot
3.9
Toulouse
3.8
Rennes
3.7
Lyon
3.5
Auxerre
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ajaccio
28.2
Toulouse
27.4
Estac Troyes
25.9
Angers
25.1
Montpellier
24.4
Lorient
24.3
Strasbourg
24.0
Monaco
23.9
Lyon
23.8
Reims
23.7
Lille
23.7
Stade Brestois 29
23.5
Clermont Foot
23.5
Nantes
22.7
Auxerre
22.7
Rennes
22.5
Nice
22.4
Marseille
22.2
Lens
22.0
Paris Saint Germain
21.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
52.5%
Under 9.5
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
67.8%
Under 3.5
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
65.3%
Under 21.5
34.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Estac Troyes
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.87
0.33
0.60
0.47
1.13
vs Stronger (13)
0.31
1.08
0.14
0.71
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (15)
0.47
0.80
0.57
0.57
0.38
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Lille) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lille
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.43
0.94
0.38
0.21
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.50
1.00
0.43
0.14
0.57
vs Weaker (15)
0.60
0.27
0.89
0.33
0.17
0.17
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Estac Troyes) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Estac Troyes over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estac Troyes over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estac Troyes over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lille over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lille over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lille over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Estac Troyes
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.30
0.60
1.00
0.80
1.60
vs Stronger (13)
0.92
1.54
0.71
1.14
1.17
2.00
vs Similar (15)
0.53
1.07
0.43
0.86
0.62
1.25
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Lille) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lille
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.50
1.19
0.56
0.93
0.43
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
2.00
-
-
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (14)
0.93
0.50
1.00
0.86
0.86
0.14
vs Weaker (15)
1.13
0.40
1.33
0.33
0.83
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Estac Troyes) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Estac Troyes over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estac Troyes over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estac Troyes over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lille over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lille over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lille over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Estac Troyes
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mama Baldé29%
Rony Lopes22%
Florian Tardieu20%
Renaud Ripart15%
Wilson Odobert12%
Xavier Chavalerin12%
Jackson Porozo9%
Ike Ugbo8%
Abdu Conté5%
Yasser Larouci3%
Yoann Salmier3%
Rominigue Kouamé3%
Adil Rami0%
Andreas Bruus0%
Gauthier Gallon0%
Lucien Agoumé0%
Jeff Reine-Adélaïde0%
Tristan Dingomé0%
Erik Palmer-Brown0%
Mateusz Lis0%
Papa Ndiaga Yade0%
Thierno Baldé0%
Tanguy Zoukrou0%
Alexis Tibidi0%
Kyliane Dong0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lucien Agoumé40%
Rominigue Kouamé28%
Yoann Salmier16%
Renaud Ripart15%
Mama Baldé15%
Jackson Porozo14%
Florian Tardieu13%
Erik Palmer-Brown13%
Mateusz Lis11%
Adil Rami10%
Gauthier Gallon10%
Xavier Chavalerin9%
Andreas Bruus7%
Papa Ndiaga Yade7%
Rony Lopes6%
Yasser Larouci3%
Thierno Baldé3%
Abdu Conté0%
Jeff Reine-Adélaïde0%
Tristan Dingomé0%
Ike Ugbo0%
Tanguy Zoukrou0%
Alexis Tibidi0%
Wilson Odobert0%
Kyliane Dong0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jeff Reine-Adélaïde17%
Rony Lopes16%
Papa Ndiaga Yade14%
Abdu Conté11%
Mama Baldé9%
Andreas Bruus7%
Lucien Agoumé7%
Wilson Odobert6%
Xavier Chavalerin6%
Adil Rami5%
Ike Ugbo4%
Renaud Ripart4%
Yasser Larouci3%
Thierno Baldé3%
Rominigue Kouamé3%
Jackson Porozo0%
Florian Tardieu0%
Yoann Salmier0%
Gauthier Gallon0%
Tristan Dingomé0%
Erik Palmer-Brown0%
Mateusz Lis0%
Tanguy Zoukrou0%
Alexis Tibidi0%
Kyliane Dong0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mama Baldé29%
Rony Lopes16%
Renaud Ripart15%
Jackson Porozo9%
Rominigue Kouamé3%
Wilson Odobert3%
Xavier Chavalerin3%
Abdu Conté0%
Adil Rami0%
Florian Tardieu0%
Andreas Bruus0%
Yoann Salmier0%
Gauthier Gallon0%
Lucien Agoumé0%
Jeff Reine-Adélaïde0%
Tristan Dingomé0%
Erik Palmer-Brown0%
Mateusz Lis0%
Ike Ugbo0%
Papa Ndiaga Yade0%
Yasser Larouci0%
Thierno Baldé0%
Tanguy Zoukrou0%
Alexis Tibidi0%
Kyliane Dong0%
Lille
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jonathan David43%
Yusuf Yazıcı25%
Rémy Cabella19%
Jonathan Bamba18%
Alexsandro Ribeiro14%
Akim Zedadka12%
Mohamed Bayo11%
Bafodé Diakité9%
Edon Zhegrova9%
Ismaily9%
Tiago Djaló8%
André Gomes8%
Alan Virginius7%
Angel Gomes6%
Adam Ounas5%
José Fonte3%
Benjamin André3%
Timothy Weah0%
Jonas Martin0%
Léo Jardim0%
Gabriel Gudmundsson0%
Lucas Chevalier0%
Leny Yoro0%
Carlos Baleba0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Benjamin André35%
Tiago Djaló28%
Angel Gomes25%
André Gomes23%
José Fonte23%
Alexsandro Ribeiro19%
Bafodé Diakité18%
Jonathan Bamba18%
Jonas Martin17%
Gabriel Gudmundsson17%
Jonathan David16%
Carlos Baleba16%
Akim Zedadka12%
Adam Ounas10%
Rémy Cabella9%
Timothy Weah7%
Alan Virginius7%
Edon Zhegrova5%
Mohamed Bayo4%
Lucas Chevalier3%
Ismaily0%
Léo Jardim0%
Yusuf Yazıcı0%
Leny Yoro0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Yusuf Yazıcı25%
Rémy Cabella22%
Jonathan Bamba21%
Angel Gomes14%
Edon Zhegrova14%
Jonathan David11%
Adam Ounas5%
Ismaily4%
André Gomes4%
Mohamed Bayo4%
Timothy Weah3%
Benjamin André3%
Tiago Djaló0%
José Fonte0%
Akim Zedadka0%
Bafodé Diakité0%
Jonas Martin0%
Léo Jardim0%
Gabriel Gudmundsson0%
Alexsandro Ribeiro0%
Lucas Chevalier0%
Alan Virginius0%
Leny Yoro0%
Carlos Baleba0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jonathan David41%
Jonathan Bamba21%
Edon Zhegrova18%
Angel Gomes17%
Timothy Weah10%
Rémy Cabella9%
Alan Virginius7%
Mohamed Bayo4%
Adam Ounas0%
Ismaily0%
Tiago Djaló0%
Benjamin André0%
José Fonte0%
André Gomes0%
Akim Zedadka0%
Bafodé Diakité0%
Jonas Martin0%
Léo Jardim0%
Gabriel Gudmundsson0%
Yusuf Yazıcı0%
Alexsandro Ribeiro0%
Lucas Chevalier0%
Leny Yoro0%
Carlos Baleba0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
STR (32)
€304m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
LEN (27)
€187m
NIC (28)
€152m
TOU (24)
€115m
LOR (24)
€87m
AUX (29)
€84m
NAN (25)
€82m
ANG (23)
€73m
REI (30)
€72m
SB2 (20)
€64m
ET (23)
€36m
MON (24)
€29m
CF (21)
€15m
Estac Troyes's squad is €276m less valuable than Lille's (€36m vs €312m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
STR (13)
€112m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
LEN (8)
€52m
REI (12)
€38m
NAN (8)
€31m
ANG (9)
€30m
TOU (7)
€30m
SB2 (6)
€25m
AUX (11)
€23m
LOR (8)
€20m
MON (9)
€11m
ET (7)
€7m
CF (5)
€2m
Estac Troyes's attack is €126m less valuable than Lille's (€7m vs €133m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
STR (6)
€56m
REN (5)
€44m
TOU (7)
€39m
LOR (5)
€32m
NIC (9)
€31m
AUX (5)
€28m
LEN (5)
€24m
SB2 (6)
€20m
NAN (7)
€16m
REI (6)
€13m
ANG (3)
€11m
ET (6)
€11m
MON (5)
€6m
CF (4)
€3m
Estac Troyes's midfield is €91m less valuable than Lille's (€11m vs €102m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
STR (13)
€136m
LEN (14)
€112m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
NIC (11)
€60m
TOU (10)
€46m
LOR (11)
€35m
NAN (10)
€34m
AUX (13)
€33m
ANG (11)
€32m
REI (12)
€21m
SB2 (8)
€19m
ET (10)
€17m
MON (10)
€12m
CF (12)
€10m
Estac Troyes's defence is €59m less valuable than Lille's (€17m vs €76m).
France: Ligue 1 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →