PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Eupen vs Mouscron Result & Analysis

Date: 01/10/2016
Time: 00:00
Final 1-4
E
Eupen
Vs
38%
26%
36%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
M
Mouscron
Belgium: Jupiler Pro League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Eupen win✗ Miss
38.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mouscron win✓ Hit
35.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

E
Eupen

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L02L21W22D23L21W23L03LA·ZUL30/07H·KV 06/08A·KVC13/08H·AND21/08A·CHA26/08H·OOS10/09A·CLU17/09A·STA25/09
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.252.251.331.671.202.60
vs Stronger (7)1.142.431.002.001.202.60
vs Similar (1)2.001.002.001.00--
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %0% (-25pp vs league)
This opponent (Mouscron) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

M
Mouscron

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-512L01L12L21W12L15L31W03LH·AND30/07H·CHA06/08A·OOS14/08H·ST.20/08A·LOK27/08H·ZUL10/09A·KVC17/09H·CLU23/09
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.122.120.802.401.671.67
vs Stronger (6)1.172.170.802.403.001.00
vs Similar (2)1.002.00--1.002.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %0% (-25pp vs league)
This opponent (Eupen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%23%6%012%123%222%317%411%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.3%
Under 1.5
17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
59.5%
Under 2.5
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
37.1%
Under 3.5
62.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
62.8%
No
37.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
8.2%
2-2
6.5%
1-0
6.1%
0-1
5.9%
0-0
5.7%
2-0
5.7%
Eupen goals ↓
Mouscron goals →
01234
05.7%5.9%5.2%2.6%1.0%
16.1%12%8.2%4.1%1.6%
25.7%8.5%6.5%3.3%1.2%
33.0%4.5%3.4%1.7%0.6%
41.2%1.8%1.3%0.7%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Eupen goals (down), columns = Mouscron goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Anderlecht
2.03
Club Brugge KV
1.97
Zulte Waregem
1.80
Oostende
1.67
Gent
1.67
Charleroi
1.63
Genk
1.60
KV Mechelen
1.60
Standard Liege
1.40
Kortrijk
1.03
Lokeren
1.03
St. Truiden
1.00
Eupen
1.00
SK Beveren
1.00
Mouscron
0.80
KVC Westerlo
0.77
Eupen is 0.20 points better than Mouscron in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 0.80).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Anderlecht
2.23
Club Brugge KV
1.87
Oostende
1.73
Zulte Waregem
1.63
Standard Liege
1.57
Gent
1.50
KV Mechelen
1.37
Genk
1.33
Eupen
1.33
Kortrijk
1.27
St. Truiden
1.17
Charleroi
1.13
KVC Westerlo
1.10
Mouscron
0.97
SK Beveren
0.93
Lokeren
0.80
Eupen is 0.37 goals better than Mouscron in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 0.97).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Club Brugge KV
0.80
Charleroi
0.97
Gent
0.97
Anderlecht
1.00
Lokeren
1.13
Genk
1.17
KV Mechelen
1.20
Oostende
1.23
Zulte Waregem
1.27
Standard Liege
1.27
SK Beveren
1.43
St. Truiden
1.60
Mouscron
1.77
Kortrijk
1.83
Eupen
2.13
KVC Westerlo
2.17
Eupen is 0.37 goals worse than Mouscron in terms of goals conceded per game (2.13 vs 1.77).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

E
Eupen

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

M
Mouscron

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

E
Eupen

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (8)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (7)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (1)---0.00.0----
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Mouscron) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

M
Mouscron

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (8)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (6)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (2)---0.0-0.0---
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Eupen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Not collected for this league yet.

🟨 Total Cards

Not collected for this league yet.

⚠️ Total Fouls

Not collected for this league yet.
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

E
Eupen

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L10W11D13L00D11D01LA·ZUL30/07H·KV 06/08A·KVC13/08H·AND21/08A·CHA26/08H·OOS10/09A·CLU17/09A·STA25/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.880.330.670.601.00
vs Stronger (7)0.571.000.501.000.601.00
vs Similar (1)0.000.000.000.00--
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %38% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Mouscron) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

M
Mouscron

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L10W00D01L12L21W01LH·AND30/07H·CHA06/08A·OOS14/08H·ST.20/08A·LOK27/08H·ZUL10/09A·KVC17/09H·CLU23/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.620.750.400.801.000.67
vs Stronger (6)0.670.830.400.802.001.00
vs Similar (2)0.500.50--0.500.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %38% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Eupen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Eupen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eupen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eupen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mouscron over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mouscron over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mouscron over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

E
Eupen

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L01L11D11D10W21W12L02LA·ZUL30/07H·KV 06/08A·KVC13/08H·AND21/08A·CHA26/08H·OOS10/09A·CLU17/09A·STA25/09
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.751.381.001.000.601.60
vs Stronger (7)0.571.430.501.000.601.60
vs Similar (1)2.001.002.001.00--
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %12% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Mouscron) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

M
Mouscron

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L00D02L21W11D03L10W02LH·AND30/07H·CHA06/08A·OOS14/08H·ST.20/08A·LOK27/08H·ZUL10/09A·KVC17/09H·CLU23/09
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.380.401.600.671.00
vs Stronger (6)0.501.330.401.601.000.00
vs Similar (2)0.501.50--0.501.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %25% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Eupen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Eupen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eupen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eupen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mouscron over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mouscron over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mouscron over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.582.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (27)
€196m
GEN (30)
€113m
AND (32)
€91m
GEN (32)
€58m
SL (27)
€54m
KM (31)
€45m
KW (26)
€38m
CHA (21)
€31m
ST (23)
€30m
ZW (27)
€20m
KOR (24)
€18m
SB (24)
€12m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (10)
€92m
AND (12)
€50m
GEN (10)
€39m
GEN (11)
€17m
KW (11)
€16m
SL (9)
€14m
KM (9)
€13m
CHA (8)
€13m
ST (10)
€11m
KOR (9)
€9m
ZW (10)
€8m
SB (9)
€4m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (5)
€23m
GEN (8)
€22m
GEN (5)
€19m
AND (5)
€18m
KW (5)
€9m
SL (7)
€8m
KM (7)
€7m
ST (4)
€4m
CHA (5)
€4m
KOR (5)
€4m
ZW (4)
€4m
SB (5)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (12)
€81m
GEN (15)
€55m
SL (11)
€31m
KM (15)
€25m
AND (15)
€24m
GEN (13)
€19m
CHA (8)
€14m
ST (9)
€14m
KW (10)
€12m
ZW (13)
€9m
KOR (10)
€5m
SB (10)
€5m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
EUP wins
0
Draws
0
MOU wins

Head-to-head

Eupen vs Mouscron · H/A from EUP
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

E
Eupen

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/09/16AStandard Liege Vs EUP3-0
17/09/16AClub Brugge KV Vs EUP3-2
10/09/16HEUP Vs Oostende2-1
26/08/16ACharleroi Vs EUP3-2
21/08/16HEUP Vs Anderlecht2-2
13/08/16AKVC Westerlo Vs EUP1-2
06/08/16HEUP Vs KV Mechelen0-2
30/07/16AZulte Waregem Vs EUP3-0

M
Mouscron

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/09/16HMOU Vs Club Brugge KV0-3
17/09/16AKVC Westerlo Vs MOU1-3
10/09/16HMOU Vs Zulte Waregem1-5
27/08/16ALokeren Vs MOU2-1
20/08/16HMOU Vs St. Truiden2-1
14/08/16AOostende Vs MOU2-1
06/08/16HMOU Vs Charleroi0-1
30/07/16HMOU Vs Anderlecht1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

E
Eupen
Belgium: Jupiler Pro League
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWLL0.88
HomeLDW1.33
AwayLWLLL0.60
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %25%33%20%
AVG goals3.503.003.80
Over 1.5 %100%100%100%
Over 2.5 %88%67%100%
Over 3.5 %38%33%40%
Scored1.251.331.20
Conceded2.251.672.60
BTTS62%67%60%
Clean Sheet0%0%0%
Corners---
Cards---
M
Mouscron
Belgium: Jupiler Pro League
Recent: 2 Wins / 0 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLWL0.75
HomeLLWLL0.60
AwayLLW1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %25%20%33%
AVG goals3.253.203.33
Over 1.5 %88%80%100%
Over 2.5 %88%80%100%
Over 3.5 %25%20%33%
Scored1.120.801.67
Conceded2.122.401.67
BTTS75%60%100%
Clean Sheet0%0%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1AnderlechtAnderlecht3061
60%
2.0
6730+37
3.2
80%
63%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
91
5018242.21.0
-
2Club Brugge KVClub Brugge KV3059
60%
2.0
5624+32
2.7
67%
53%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
196
9223811.90.8
-
3Zulte WaregemZulte Waregem3054
50%
1.8
4938+11
2.9
80%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
20
8491.61.3
-
4GentGent3050
47%
1.7
4529+16
2.5
73%
40%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
58
1722191.51.0
-
5OostendeOostende3050
47%
1.7
5237+15
3.0
87%
63%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.2
-
6CharleroiCharleroi3049
43%
1.6
3429+5
2.1
60%
40%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
31
134141.11.0
-
7KV MechelenKV Mechelen3048
47%
1.6
4136+5
2.6
77%
47%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
45
137251.41.2
-
8GenkGenk3048
47%
1.6
4035+5
2.5
73%
50%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
113
3919551.31.2
-
9Standard LiegeStandard Liege3042
33%
1.4
4738+9
2.8
73%
60%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
54
148311.61.3
-
10
L
Lokeren		3031
23%
1.0
2434-10
1.9
60%
47%
7%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.1
-
11KortrijkKortrijk3031
27%
1.0
3855-17
3.1
87%
63%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
18
9451.31.8
-
12St. TruidenSt. Truiden3030
27%
1.0
3548-13
2.8
70%
60%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
30
114141.21.6
-
13SK BeverenSK Beveren3030
23%
1.0
2843-15
2.4
67%
43%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
4350.91.4
-
14
E
Eupen		3030
27%
1.0
4064-24
3.5
87%
73%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.1
-
15
M
Mouscron		3024
23%
0.8
2953-24
2.7
73%
60%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
16KVC WesterloKVC Westerlo3023
17%
0.8
3365-32
3.3
80%
80%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
38
169121.12.2
-
Belgium: Jupiler Pro League 2016/17 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belgium: Jupiler Pro League stats & trends →

← all matches