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Eupen vs Mouscron Result & Analysis

Date: 11/03/2018
Time: 00:00
Final 4-0
E
Eupen
Vs
45%
25%
30%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
M
Mouscron
Belgium: Jupiler Pro League
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Eupen win✓ Hit
45.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mouscron win✗ Miss
29.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

E
Eupen

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W23L10W00D11D01L23L32W02LA·AND22/12H·SK 26/12A·STA20/01H·CHA24/01A·KOR27/01H·GEN03/02A·KV 10/02A·ZUL17/02H·LOK24/02A·ANT03/03
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.232.001.471.671.002.33
vs Stronger (25)1.202.001.311.691.082.33
vs Similar (5)1.402.002.501.500.672.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Mouscron) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

M
Mouscron

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-521W24L02L03L20W01L34L22D35L12LH·ZUL23/12A·CLU26/12A·CHA19/01H·KOR23/01A·KV 26/01H·GEN03/02A·STA11/02H·SK 18/02A·AND25/02H·LOK03/03
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.831.531.931.271.73
vs Stronger (25)1.362.041.502.081.232.00
vs Similar (5)1.600.801.671.331.500.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Eupen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%010%121%222%318%412%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.8%
Under 1.5
15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.5%
Under 2.5
36.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
41.4%
Under 3.5
58.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
65.2%
No
34.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.0%
2-1
9.1%
1-2
7.3%
2-2
6.6%
2-0
6.3%
1-0
5.9%
3-1
5.5%
0-0
4.8%
Eupen goals ↓
Mouscron goals →
01234
04.8%4.5%4.0%1.9%0.7%
15.9%11%7.3%3.5%1.3%
26.3%9.1%6.6%3.2%1.2%
33.8%5.5%4.0%1.9%0.7%
41.7%2.5%1.8%0.9%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Eupen goals (down), columns = Mouscron goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Club Brugge KV
2.23
Anderlecht
1.83
Charleroi
1.70
Gent
1.67
Genk
1.47
Standard Liege
1.47
Kortrijk
1.40
Antwerp
1.37
Zulte Waregem
1.23
St. Truiden
1.23
Oostende
1.20
SK Beveren
1.17
Lokeren
1.03
Mouscron
1.00
Eupen
0.90
KV Mechelen
0.90
Eupen is 0.10 points worse than Mouscron in terms of average points per game (0.90 vs 1.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Club Brugge KV
2.27
SK Beveren
1.67
Anderlecht
1.63
Zulte Waregem
1.57
Charleroi
1.53
Gent
1.50
Genk
1.47
Standard Liege
1.43
Oostende
1.40
Kortrijk
1.40
Eupen
1.33
Mouscron
1.33
Antwerp
1.27
Lokeren
1.10
KV Mechelen
1.03
St. Truiden
0.97
Eupen and Mouscron are level in goals scored per game (both 1.33).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Gent
0.90
Charleroi
1.00
Club Brugge KV
1.10
Genk
1.20
Kortrijk
1.30
Antwerp
1.33
Oostende
1.37
St. Truiden
1.37
Standard Liege
1.37
Anderlecht
1.40
Lokeren
1.63
KV Mechelen
1.63
SK Beveren
1.70
Zulte Waregem
1.73
Eupen
1.90
Mouscron
1.97
Eupen is 0.07 goals better than Mouscron in terms of goals conceded per game (1.90 vs 1.97).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

E
Eupen

For 4.4 · Against 8.6 · Total 13.0

🚩 Corners

1803595473155124102101101023108141118171412111213A·ANTH·LOKA·ZULA·KV H·GENA·KORH·CHAA·STAH·SK A·AND
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.3 · Against 1.7 · Total 5.0

🟨 Cards

903242132151532151635643683690A·ANTH·LOKA·ZULA·KV H·GENA·KORH·CHAA·STAH·SK A·AND
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

M
Mouscron

For 3.4 · Against 3.9 · Total 7.3

🚩 Corners

130242521310726522321563673139114569H·LOKA·ANDH·SK A·STAH·GENA·KV H·KORA·CHAA·CLUH·ZUL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.3 · Against 2.2 · Total 5.5

🟨 Cards

110433517411312221333673611244369H·LOKA·ANDH·SK A·STAH·GENA·KV H·KORA·CHAA·CLUH·ZUL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

E
Eupen

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.511.010.12.93.02.9---
vs Stronger (41)10.310.610.03.03.03.0---
vs Similar (9)11.613.510.32.83.32.5---
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line55%64%47%44%44%44%---
% under line45%36%53%56%56%56%---
This opponent (Mouscron) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

M
Mouscron

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)8.88.49.32.83.02.7---
vs Stronger (42)9.28.49.92.73.12.3---
vs Similar (8)7.28.35.53.62.76.5---
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line34%27%43%44%48%40%---
% under line66%73%57%56%52%60%---
This opponent (Eupen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Kortrijk
12.2
Oostende
11.1
Lokeren
10.8
Anderlecht
10.8
SK Beveren
10.6
Eupen
10.5
Gent
10.4
Zulte Waregem
10.3
Club Brugge KV
10.2
Antwerp
10.1
Standard Liege
9.8
Genk
9.7
KV Mechelen
9.5
St. Truiden
9.2
Mouscron
8.8
Charleroi
8.3

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Standard Liege
6.0
Gent
5.8
St. Truiden
5.4
Zulte Waregem
5.1
Eupen
5.1
KV Mechelen
5.0
Mouscron
4.9
Genk
4.8
Oostende
4.6
Antwerp
4.6
Anderlecht
4.6
Charleroi
4.6
Kortrijk
4.6
Lokeren
4.5
Club Brugge KV
4.4
SK Beveren
4.3

⚠️ Total Fouls

Not collected for this league yet.
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
56.9%
Under 9.5
43.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
76.4%
Under 3.5
23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

E
Eupen

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D22D10W00D10W00D22D21W02LA·AND22/12H·SK 26/12A·STA20/01H·CHA24/01A·KOR27/01H·GEN03/02A·KV 10/02A·ZUL17/02H·LOK24/02A·ANT03/03
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.900.870.600.601.20
vs Stronger (25)0.680.960.770.540.581.42
vs Similar (5)1.000.601.501.000.670.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Mouscron) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

M
Mouscron

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D10W01L00D10W00D11D11D02L01LH·ZUL23/12A·CLU26/12A·CHA19/01H·KOR23/01A·KV 26/01H·GEN03/02A·STA11/02H·SK 18/02A·AND25/02H·LOK03/03
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.730.670.930.530.53
vs Stronger (25)0.640.760.750.920.540.62
vs Similar (5)0.400.600.331.000.500.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Eupen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Eupen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eupen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eupen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mouscron over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mouscron over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mouscron over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

E
Eupen

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D10W01L00D00D01L01L01L11D00DA·AND22/12H·SK 26/12A·STA20/01H·CHA24/01A·KOR27/01H·GEN03/02A·KV 10/02A·ZUL17/02H·LOK24/02A·ANT03/03
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.100.601.070.401.13
vs Stronger (25)0.521.040.541.150.500.92
vs Similar (5)0.401.401.000.500.002.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Mouscron) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

M
Mouscron

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W14L01L03L10W01L23L11D33D11DH·ZUL23/12A·CLU26/12A·CHA19/01H·KOR23/01A·KV 26/01H·GEN03/02A·STA11/02H·SK 18/02A·AND25/02H·LOK03/03
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.801.100.871.000.731.20
vs Stronger (25)0.721.280.751.170.691.38
vs Similar (5)1.200.201.330.331.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Eupen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Eupen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eupen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eupen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mouscron over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mouscron over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mouscron over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 2.5 cards89.2%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.584.8%-------✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards76.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (27)
€196m
GEN (30)
€113m
AND (32)
€91m
GEN (32)
€58m
SL (27)
€54m
KM (31)
€45m
ANT (24)
€33m
CHA (21)
€31m
ST (23)
€30m
ZW (27)
€20m
KOR (24)
€18m
SB (24)
€12m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (10)
€92m
AND (12)
€50m
GEN (10)
€39m
GEN (11)
€17m
SL (9)
€14m
KM (9)
€13m
CHA (8)
€13m
ST (10)
€11m
ANT (10)
€9m
KOR (9)
€9m
ZW (10)
€8m
SB (9)
€4m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (5)
€23m
GEN (8)
€22m
GEN (5)
€19m
AND (5)
€18m
ANT (4)
€10m
SL (7)
€8m
KM (7)
€7m
ST (4)
€4m
CHA (5)
€4m
KOR (5)
€4m
ZW (4)
€4m
SB (5)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (12)
€81m
GEN (15)
€55m
SL (11)
€31m
KM (15)
€25m
AND (15)
€24m
GEN (13)
€19m
ANT (10)
€14m
CHA (8)
€14m
ST (9)
€14m
ZW (13)
€9m
KOR (10)
€5m
SB (10)
€5m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
0
EUP wins
0
Draws
3
MOU wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Eupen vs Mouscron · H/A from EUP
DateH/AGameScore
23/09/17AMouscron Vs EUP3-2
29/01/17AMouscron Vs EUP3-0
01/10/16HEUP Vs Mouscron1-4

E
Eupen

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/03/18AAntwerp Vs EUP2-0
24/02/18HEUP Vs Lokeren3-2
17/02/18AZulte Waregem Vs EUP3-2
10/02/18AKV Mechelen Vs EUP1-0
03/02/18HEUP Vs Gent1-1
27/01/18AKortrijk Vs EUP0-0
24/01/18HEUP Vs Charleroi1-0
20/01/18AStandard Liege Vs EUP3-2
26/12/17HEUP Vs SK Beveren1-0
22/12/17AAnderlecht Vs EUP1-0

M
Mouscron

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/03/18HMOU Vs Lokeren1-2
25/02/18AAnderlecht Vs MOU5-3
18/02/18HMOU Vs SK Beveren2-2
11/02/18AStandard Liege Vs MOU4-3
03/02/18HMOU Vs Genk0-1
26/01/18AKV Mechelen Vs MOU0-2
23/01/18HMOU Vs Kortrijk0-3
19/01/18ACharleroi Vs MOU2-0
26/12/17AClub Brugge KV Vs MOU4-2
23/12/17HMOU Vs Zulte Waregem2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

E
Eupen
Belgium: Jupiler Pro League
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLWL0.94
HomeDWWDW1.32
AwayLDLLL0.56
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%32%12%
AVG goals3.283.403.16
Over 1.5 %76%76%76%
Over 2.5 %62%64%60%
Over 3.5 %48%56%40%
Scored1.301.601.00
Conceded1.981.802.16
BTTS60%68%52%
Clean Sheet12%16%8%
Corners10.5211.0010.07
Cards5.075.364.80
M
Mouscron
Belgium: Jupiler Pro League
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDLL0.90
HomeWLLDL1.20
AwayLLWLL0.60
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%32%16%
AVG goals2.923.082.76
Over 1.5 %76%80%72%
Over 2.5 %54%72%36%
Over 3.5 %30%36%24%
Scored1.121.360.88
Conceded1.801.721.88
BTTS54%68%40%
Clean Sheet18%16%20%
Corners8.838.409.29
Cards4.864.934.79

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Club Brugge KVClub Brugge KV3067
67%
2.2
6833+35
3.4
90%
73%
47%
10.3
50%
4.5
73%
-
0%
196
9223812.31.1
-
2AnderlechtAnderlecht3055
53%
1.8
4942+7
3.0
67%
57%
43%
10.7
63%
4.6
60%
-
0%
91
5018241.61.4
-
3CharleroiCharleroi3051
43%
1.7
4630+16
2.5
77%
37%
27%
8.4
37%
4.6
63%
-
0%
31
134141.51.0
-
4GentGent3050
47%
1.7
4527+18
2.4
73%
47%
17%
10.4
57%
5.7
83%
-
0%
58
1722191.50.9
-
5GenkGenk3044
37%
1.5
4436+8
2.7
70%
43%
27%
9.7
50%
4.8
80%
-
0%
113
3919551.51.2
-
6Standard LiegeStandard Liege3044
37%
1.5
4341+2
2.8
77%
53%
37%
9.7
50%
5.9
77%
-
0%
54
148311.41.4
-
7KortrijkKortrijk3042
40%
1.4
4239+3
2.7
80%
60%
27%
12.2
77%
4.6
70%
-
0%
18
9451.41.3
-
8AntwerpAntwerp3041
33%
1.4
3840-2
2.6
73%
53%
23%
10.0
53%
4.6
70%
-
0%
33
910141.31.3
-
9Zulte WaregemZulte Waregem3037
37%
1.2
4752-5
3.3
87%
67%
43%
10.2
67%
5.0
73%
-
0%
20
8491.61.7
-
10St. TruidenSt. Truiden3037
30%
1.2
2941-12
2.3
67%
30%
20%
9.4
50%
5.5
87%
-
0%
30
114141.01.4
-
11OostendeOostende3036
33%
1.2
4241+1
2.8
73%
50%
27%
10.9
67%
4.6
63%
-
0%
0
0001.41.4
-
12SK BeverenSK Beveren3035
30%
1.2
5051-1
3.4
90%
70%
47%
10.6
57%
4.3
63%
-
0%
12
4351.71.7
-
13
L
Lokeren
3031
27%
1.0
3349-16
2.7
87%
57%
23%
10.6
60%
4.4
67%
-
0%
0
0001.11.6
-
14
M
Mouscron
3030
27%
1.0
4059-19
3.3
83%
60%
40%
9.1
37%
4.9
77%
-
0%
0
0001.32.0
-
15
E
Eupen
3027
20%
0.9
4057-17
3.2
73%
60%
47%
10.8
57%
5.1
77%
-
0%
0
0001.31.9
-
16KV MechelenKV Mechelen3027
20%
0.9
3149-18
2.7
87%
37%
27%
9.6
37%
5.0
83%
-
0%
45
137251.01.6
-
Belgium: Jupiler Pro League 2017/18 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belgium: Jupiler Pro League stats & trends →

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