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Eupen vs Mouscron Result & Analysis

Date: 15/12/2018
Time: 00:00
Final 1-0
E
Eupen
Vs
47%
25%
28%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
M
Mouscron
Belgium: Jupiler Pro League
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Eupen win✓ Hit
46.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mouscron win✗ Miss
27.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

E
Eupen

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-431W12L12L21W20W02L14L03L10W02LA·KOR28/09H·ANT06/10A·GEN20/10H·AND28/10H·CER31/10A·LOK04/11H·ST.10/11A·STA24/11H·SK 02/12A·GEN09/12
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.631.531.330.731.93
vs Stronger (25)1.001.721.251.330.772.08
vs Similar (5)1.801.202.671.330.501.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Mouscron) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

M
Mouscron

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L13L00D22D31W12L00D21W01L00DH·SK 29/09A·ST.06/10H·STA20/10A·ZUL27/10H·GEN30/10A·CER03/11H·GEN11/11A·SK 24/11A·KOR01/12H·ZUL08/12
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.931.700.671.071.202.33
vs Stronger (24)1.041.750.671.081.422.42
vs Similar (6)0.501.500.671.000.332.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Eupen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%23%6%012%123%222%317%411%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
82.2%
Under 1.5
17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
59.3%
Under 2.5
40.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.9%
Under 3.5
63.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
61.7%
No
38.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
7.1%
1-2
7.1%
1-0 ✓
7.0%
2-2
6.2%
0-0
5.7%
3-1
5.5%
Eupen goals ↓
Mouscron goals →
01234
05.7%5.0%4.0%1.8%0.6%
17.0%12%7.1%3.1%1.0%
27.1%9.4%6.2%2.7%0.9%
34.2%5.5%3.6%1.6%0.5%
41.8%2.4%1.6%0.7%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Eupen goals (down), columns = Mouscron goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Genk
2.10
Club Brugge KV
1.87
Standard Liege
1.77
Anderlecht
1.70
Gent
1.67
Antwerp
1.63
St. Truiden
1.57
Kortrijk
1.43
Charleroi
1.40
Mouscron
1.33
Zulte Waregem
1.10
Eupen
1.07
Cercle Brugge
0.93
Oostende
0.90
SK Beveren
0.90
Lokeren
0.67
Eupen is 0.27 points worse than Mouscron in terms of average points per game (1.07 vs 1.33).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Club Brugge KV
2.13
Genk
2.10
Gent
1.77
Zulte Waregem
1.63
Anderlecht
1.63
Standard Liege
1.63
St. Truiden
1.57
Kortrijk
1.47
Charleroi
1.43
Antwerp
1.30
SK Beveren
1.23
Cercle Brugge
1.17
Eupen
1.13
Mouscron
1.10
Oostende
0.97
Lokeren
0.93
Eupen is 0.03 goals better than Mouscron in terms of goals scored per game (1.13 vs 1.10).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Genk
1.03
Club Brugge KV
1.07
Mouscron
1.10
Anderlecht
1.13
Antwerp
1.13
Standard Liege
1.17
St. Truiden
1.20
Kortrijk
1.40
Charleroi
1.43
Gent
1.50
SK Beveren
1.67
Oostende
1.73
Lokeren
1.77
Eupen
1.90
Cercle Brugge
1.97
Zulte Waregem
2.00
Eupen is 0.80 goals worse than Mouscron in terms of goals conceded per game (1.90 vs 1.10).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

E
Eupen

For 4.9 · Against 6.8 · Total 11.7

🚩 Corners

1806785455392754125138181313981112161889A·GENH·SK A·STAH·ST.A·LOKH·CERH·ANDA·GENH·ANTA·KOR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.1

🟨 Cards

604223223223214122226545053544A·GENH·SK A·STAH·ST.A·LOKH·CERH·ANDA·GENH·ANTA·KOR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

M
Mouscron

For 4.7 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.5

🚩 Corners

120554273523964384845621061071210111298H·ZULA·KORA·SK H·GENA·CERH·GENA·ZULH·STAA·ST.H·SK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.6

🟨 Cards

8031234234322228234567524085H·ZULA·KORA·SK H·GENA·CERH·GENA·ZULH·STAA·ST.H·SK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

E
Eupen

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.711.010.54.64.94.4---
vs Stronger (41)10.410.610.24.64.84.5---
vs Similar (9)12.213.211.44.75.54.0---
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line52%58%46%72%72%72%---
% under line48%42%54%28%28%28%---
This opponent (Mouscron) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

M
Mouscron

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.69.210.04.74.25.2---
vs Stronger (41)9.69.110.14.44.04.8---
vs Similar (9)9.710.09.46.15.26.8---
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line46%42%50%72%64%80%---
% under line54%58%50%28%36%20%---
This opponent (Eupen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Kortrijk
11.4
Gent
10.9
Eupen
10.7
Lokeren
10.5
SK Beveren
10.4
Anderlecht
10.4
Cercle Brugge
10.3
Genk
10.2
Oostende
10.1
Club Brugge KV
10.1
Zulte Waregem
9.9
Antwerp
9.8
Standard Liege
9.7
Mouscron
9.6
St. Truiden
9.5
Charleroi
8.3

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Standard Liege
5.5
Gent
5.4
Cercle Brugge
5.3
St. Truiden
5.2
Mouscron
4.9
Zulte Waregem
4.9
Oostende
4.9
Genk
4.9
Eupen
4.8
Antwerp
4.8
SK Beveren
4.7
Anderlecht
4.7
Charleroi
4.6
Club Brugge KV
4.3
Kortrijk
4.3
Lokeren
4.2

⚠️ Total Fouls

Not collected for this league yet.
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
59.1%
Under 9.5
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
76.5%
Under 3.5
23.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

E
Eupen

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W10W01L20W00D02L02L02L10W01LA·KOR28/09H·ANT06/10A·GEN20/10H·AND28/10H·CER31/10A·LOK04/11H·ST.10/11A·STA24/11H·SK 02/12A·GEN09/12
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.930.670.600.471.27
vs Stronger (25)0.560.960.670.580.461.31
vs Similar (5)0.600.800.670.670.501.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Mouscron) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

M
Mouscron

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L11D00D12L20W10W00D10W01L00DH·SK 29/09A·ST.06/10H·STA20/10A·ZUL27/10H·GEN30/10A·CER03/11H·GEN11/11A·SK 24/11A·KOR01/12H·ZUL08/12
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.570.330.400.530.73
vs Stronger (24)0.500.620.420.330.580.92
vs Similar (6)0.170.330.000.670.330.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Eupen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Eupen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eupen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eupen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mouscron over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mouscron over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mouscron over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

E
Eupen

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W02L11D01L20W00D12L01L00D01LA·KOR28/09H·ANT06/10A·GEN20/10H·AND28/10H·CER31/10A·LOK04/11H·ST.10/11A·STA24/11H·SK 02/12A·GEN09/12
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.700.870.730.270.67
vs Stronger (25)0.440.760.580.750.310.77
vs Similar (5)1.200.402.000.670.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Mouscron) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

M
Mouscron

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L02L00D10W11D02L00D11D00D00DH·SK 29/09A·ST.06/10H·STA20/10A·ZUL27/10H·GEN30/10A·CER03/11H·GEN11/11A·SK 24/11A·KOR01/12H·ZUL08/12
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.130.330.670.671.60
vs Stronger (24)0.541.120.250.750.831.50
vs Similar (6)0.331.170.670.330.002.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Eupen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Eupen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eupen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eupen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mouscron over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mouscron over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mouscron over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 2.5 cards89.3%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.582.2%-------✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards76.5%-------✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners71.1%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (27)
€196m
GEN (30)
€113m
AND (32)
€91m
GEN (32)
€58m
SL (27)
€54m
CB (26)
€40m
ANT (24)
€33m
CHA (21)
€31m
ST (23)
€30m
ZW (27)
€20m
KOR (24)
€18m
SB (24)
€12m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (10)
€92m
AND (12)
€50m
GEN (10)
€39m
CB (9)
€18m
GEN (11)
€17m
SL (9)
€14m
CHA (8)
€13m
ST (10)
€11m
ANT (10)
€9m
KOR (9)
€9m
ZW (10)
€8m
SB (9)
€4m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (5)
€23m
GEN (8)
€22m
GEN (5)
€19m
AND (5)
€18m
ANT (4)
€10m
SL (7)
€8m
CB (6)
€5m
ST (4)
€4m
CHA (5)
€4m
KOR (5)
€4m
ZW (4)
€4m
SB (5)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (12)
€81m
GEN (15)
€55m
SL (11)
€31m
AND (15)
€24m
GEN (13)
€19m
CB (11)
€17m
ANT (10)
€14m
CHA (8)
€14m
ST (9)
€14m
ZW (13)
€9m
KOR (10)
€5m
SB (10)
€5m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
2
EUP wins
0
Draws
3
MOU wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Eupen vs Mouscron · H/A from EUP
DateH/AGameScore
25/08/18AMouscron Vs EUP0-1
11/03/18HEUP Vs Mouscron4-0
23/09/17AMouscron Vs EUP3-2
29/01/17AMouscron Vs EUP3-0
01/10/16HEUP Vs Mouscron1-4

E
Eupen

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/12/18AGent Vs EUP2-0
02/12/18HEUP Vs SK Beveren1-0
24/11/18AStandard Liege Vs EUP3-0
10/11/18HEUP Vs St. Truiden1-4
04/11/18ALokeren Vs EUP2-0
31/10/18HEUP Vs Cercle Brugge2-0
28/10/18HEUP Vs Anderlecht2-1
20/10/18AGenk Vs EUP2-1
06/10/18HEUP Vs Antwerp1-2
28/09/18AKortrijk Vs EUP1-3

M
Mouscron

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/12/18HMOU Vs Zulte Waregem0-0
01/12/18AKortrijk Vs MOU1-0
24/11/18ASK Beveren Vs MOU1-2
11/11/18HMOU Vs Genk0-0
03/11/18ACercle Brugge Vs MOU2-1
30/10/18HMOU Vs Gent3-1
27/10/18AZulte Waregem Vs MOU2-2
20/10/18HMOU Vs Standard Liege0-0
06/10/18ASt. Truiden Vs MOU3-1
29/09/18HMOU Vs SK Beveren0-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

E
Eupen
Belgium: Jupiler Pro League
Recent: 4 Wins / 0 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWL0.92
HomeLWWLW1.40
AwayWLLLL0.44
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%40%8%
AVG goals3.203.243.16
Over 1.5 %78%80%76%
Over 2.5 %64%68%60%
Over 3.5 %42%44%40%
Scored1.241.560.92
Conceded1.961.682.24
BTTS58%68%48%
Clean Sheet18%24%12%
Corners10.7311.0010.46
Cards4.835.084.58
M
Mouscron
Belgium: Jupiler Pro League
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWLD1.00
HomeLDWDD1.24
AwayLDLWL0.76
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%32%20%
AVG goals2.742.562.92
Over 1.5 %70%60%80%
Over 2.5 %52%56%48%
Over 3.5 %32%32%32%
Scored1.101.121.08
Conceded1.641.441.84
BTTS52%52%52%
Clean Sheet22%24%20%
Corners9.589.219.96
Cards4.884.335.42

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1GenkGenk3063
60%
2.1
6331+32
3.1
83%
53%
40%
10.9
60%
4.5
77%
-
0%
113
3919552.11.0
-
2Club Brugge KVClub Brugge KV3056
53%
1.9
6432+32
3.2
83%
70%
43%
10.0
57%
4.6
57%
-
0%
196
9223812.11.1
-
3Standard LiegeStandard Liege3053
50%
1.8
4935+14
2.8
83%
60%
30%
10.0
47%
5.0
77%
-
0%
54
148311.61.2
-
4AnderlechtAnderlecht3051
50%
1.7
4934+15
2.8
80%
57%
20%
10.2
53%
4.8
73%
-
0%
91
5018241.61.1
-
5GentGent3050
50%
1.7
5345+8
3.3
93%
73%
43%
11.3
63%
5.1
70%
-
0%
58
1722191.81.5
-
6AntwerpAntwerp3049
47%
1.6
3934+5
2.4
73%
43%
17%
10.0
67%
5.3
73%
-
0%
33
910141.31.1
-
7St. TruidenSt. Truiden3047
40%
1.6
4736+11
2.8
80%
50%
37%
10.2
57%
4.7
70%
-
0%
30
114141.61.2
-
8KortrijkKortrijk3043
40%
1.4
4442+2
2.9
80%
57%
30%
10.7
63%
4.1
57%
-
0%
18
9451.51.4
-
9CharleroiCharleroi3042
40%
1.4
4343+0
2.9
83%
63%
30%
8.8
30%
4.9
70%
-
0%
31
134141.41.4
-
10
M
Mouscron
3040
37%
1.3
3333+0
2.2
63%
53%
17%
10.2
63%
5.0
73%
-
0%
0
0001.11.1
-
11Zulte WaregemZulte Waregem3033
27%
1.1
4960-11
3.6
93%
73%
60%
9.6
47%
4.5
70%
-
0%
20
8491.62.0
-
12
E
Eupen
3032
33%
1.1
3457-23
3.0
80%
63%
33%
10.4
47%
4.2
67%
-
0%
0
0001.11.9
-
13Cercle BruggeCercle Brugge3028
23%
0.9
3559-24
3.1
87%
70%
37%
9.9
53%
5.2
80%
-
0%
40
185171.22.0
-
14SK BeverenSK Beveren3027
17%
0.9
3750-13
2.9
83%
57%
27%
10.6
53%
4.9
67%
-
0%
12
4351.21.7
-
15OostendeOostende3027
20%
0.9
2952-23
2.7
90%
50%
23%
9.9
60%
4.9
73%
-
0%
0
0001.01.7
-
16
L
Lokeren
3020
17%
0.7
2853-25
2.7
77%
60%
27%
10.8
67%
3.4
33%
-
0%
0
0000.91.8
-
Belgium: Jupiler Pro League 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belgium: Jupiler Pro League stats & trends →

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