Fălești’s recent form shows a shaky defense, conceding over four goals on average, while their attack lags behind with just 1.25 goals per game. Victoria Bardar, however, has been more efficient away, scoring 1.25 and conceding 4.25 against similar opposition. The model projects a high-scoring affair, with an expected 4.1 goals and a 23% chance of 6 + goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-2 for the visitors, a 8.4% probability. The odds favour an away win, with 60% for Victoria, 19% for a draw and 20% for Fălești. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 goals at 92.2%, Over 2.5 at 77.5% and BTTS Yes at 72.6%. All picks carry the stated probabilities, and no other outcomes are assigned win chances.
Results analysis
The Pythia model’s prediction proved spot on, as the away side secured a 1-5 victory, extending their recent run of results. The model had chosen an Away win with a 60% probability, and that call was correct. The final score of 1-5 matched the actual result, confirming the model’s accuracy. All of the suggested selections also hit: Over 1.5 goals was a 92.2% probability and came through, Over 2.5 goals at 77.5% was also correct, and BTTS Yes at 72.6% was fulfilled. The most likely scoreline of 1-2, 1-3 or 1-1 was not reached, but the model’s overall assessment of the match outcome and total goals was validated.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Făleşti win✗ Miss
20.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
19.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Victoria Bardar win✓ Hit
60.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Făleşti
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
5.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
3.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
2.80
1.57
3.00
1.88
2.62
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (8)
1.75
3.25
1.25
4.25
2.25
2.25
vs Weaker (5)
2.00
2.20
2.50
1.50
1.67
2.67
Clean sheet %
7% (-25pp vs league)
This opponent (Victoria Bardar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Victoria Bardar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
2.60
1.67
2.67
1.50
2.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
-
-
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
3.00
1.00
3.50
1.50
2.50
Clean sheet %
0% (-32pp vs league)
This opponent (Făleşti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
92.2%
Under 1.5
7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
77.5%
Under 2.5
22.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
58.5%
Under 3.5
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
72.6%
No
27.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
8.4%
1-3
7.3%
1-1
7.2%
2-2
6.3%
0-2
5.6%
2-3
5.5%
2-1
4.9%
0-3
4.8%
Făleşti goals ↓
Victoria Bardar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.3%
3.7%
5.6%
4.8%
3.1%
1
1.9%
7.2%
8.4%
7.3%
4.7%
2
1.9%
4.9%
6.3%
5.5%
3.5%
3
0.9%
2.4%
3.2%
2.7%
1.8%
4
0.4%
0.9%
1.2%
1.0%
0.7%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Făleşti goals (down), columns = Victoria Bardar goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.38
Floreşti
2.17
Petrocub
2.00
Speranis Nisporeni
2.00
Dacia-Buiucani
1.75
Văsieni
1.50
Spartanii Selemet
1.33
Zimbru
1.29
Milsami Orhei
1.17
Dinamo-Auto
1.11
Sfîntul Gheorghe
1.08
Victoria Bardar
1.00
CSF Bălți
0.92
Făleşti
0.00
Speranța Drochia
0.00
Real Succes
0.00
Sucleia
0.00
Făleşti is 1.00 points worse than Victoria Bardar in terms of average points per game (0.00 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Speranis Nisporeni
3.00
Văsieni
3.00
Floreşti
2.33
Victoria Bardar
2.00
Spartanii Selemet
2.00
Dacia-Buiucani
1.67
Sheriff Tiraspol
1.62
Petrocub
1.50
Dinamo-Auto
1.33
Zimbru
1.12
Făleşti
1.00
Real Succes
1.00
Sucleia
1.00
Milsami Orhei
0.92
Sfîntul Gheorghe
0.92
CSF Bălți
0.75
Speranța Drochia
0.00
Făleşti is 1.00 goals worse than Victoria Bardar in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.38
Petrocub
0.71
Dacia-Buiucani
0.71
Floreşti
0.92
Speranis Nisporeni
1.00
Zimbru
1.08
CSF Bălți
1.08
Milsami Orhei
1.25
Dinamo-Auto
1.41
Sfîntul Gheorghe
1.46
Văsieni
1.50
Spartanii Selemet
1.92
Victoria Bardar
2.69
Speranța Drochia
4.00
Făleşti
4.91
Sucleia
6.00
Real Succes
7.00
Făleşti is 2.22 goals worse than Victoria Bardar in terms of goals conceded per game (4.91 vs 2.69).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Făleşti
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
1.67
1.00
0.00
0.00
2.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Victoria Bardar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Victoria Bardar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.50
1.00
0.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Făleşti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Făleşti over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Bardar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Bardar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Bardar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Făleşti
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
3.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
3.33
0.00
5.00
0.50
2.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
0.50
3.00
0.00
5.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
4.00
-
-
0.00
4.00
Clean sheet %
0% (-32pp vs league)
This opponent (Victoria Bardar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Victoria Bardar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
1.67
0.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
1.67
0.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
0% (-32pp vs league)
This opponent (Făleşti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Făleşti over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Bardar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Bardar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Bardar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
BTTS Yes
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Moldova: Super Liga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →