This opponent (FC Luzern) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Luzern
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.70
1.88
1.44
1.57
2.00
vs Stronger (4)
2.00
1.25
3.00
0.50
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
1.54
1.71
1.62
1.54
1.45
1.91
vs Weaker (2)
3.50
2.50
3.00
2.00
4.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Basel 1893) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.2%
Under 1.5
14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
64.3%
Under 2.5
35.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
42.2%
Under 3.5
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
59.4%
No
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.8%
1-1
9.6%
2-0
9.2%
3-1
7.4%
1-0
7.3%
3-0
6.9%
2-2
5.2%
1-2
4.6%
FC Basel 1893 goals ↓
FC Luzern goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.5%
3.0%
2.1%
0.7%
0.2%
1
7.3%
9.6%
4.6%
1.6%
0.4%
2
9.2%
9.8%
5.2%
1.8%
0.5%
3
6.9%
7.4%
3.9%
1.4%
0.4%
4
3.9%
4.1%
2.2%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Basel 1893 goals (down), columns = FC Luzern goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Basel 1893
1.92
Servette FC
1.66
BSC Young Boys
1.61
FC Aarau
1.50
FC Lugano
1.42
FC Zurich
1.39
Lausanne
1.39
FC ST. Gallen
1.37
FC Luzern
1.37
FC Sion
1.16
FC Winterthur
1.05
Grasshoppers
1.05
Yverdon Sport
1.03
FC Basel 1893 is 0.55 points better than FC Luzern in terms of average points per game (1.92 vs 1.37).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Basel 1893
2.39
FC Luzern
1.74
Servette FC
1.68
Lausanne
1.63
BSC Young Boys
1.58
FC Zurich
1.47
FC Lugano
1.45
FC ST. Gallen
1.37
FC Sion
1.24
Grasshoppers
1.18
FC Winterthur
1.13
Yverdon Sport
1.05
FC Aarau
0.50
FC Basel 1893 is 0.66 goals better than FC Luzern in terms of goals scored per game (2.39 vs 1.74).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Basel 1893
1.13
BSC Young Boys
1.29
Grasshoppers
1.35
FC ST. Gallen
1.39
Lausanne
1.42
Servette FC
1.45
FC Zurich
1.50
FC Sion
1.50
FC Lugano
1.53
FC Luzern
1.68
FC Winterthur
1.79
Yverdon Sport
1.79
FC Aarau
2.00
FC Basel 1893 is 0.55 goals better than FC Luzern in terms of goals conceded per game (1.13 vs 1.68).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Lugano
60%
FC Zurich
55%
FC Basel 1893
54%
BSC Young Boys
52%
FC ST. Gallen
50%
Servette FC
50%
Lausanne
48%
FC Luzern
48%
FC Sion
47%
Grasshoppers
46%
FC Winterthur
45%
Yverdon Sport
44%
FC Basel 1893 is 6.2 percentage points better than FC Luzern in terms of average possession (54% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC Basel 1893
For 4.6 · Against 3.7 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.9 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 16.2 · Total 26.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Luzern
For 4.7 · Against 4.5 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 3.5 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 13.9 · Total 25.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Basel 1893
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
9.8
11.2
4.6
4.7
4.6
24.7
25.4
24.1
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (40)
10.6
9.7
11.6
4.7
4.8
4.7
24.8
25.1
24.4
vs Weaker (10)
9.9
10.2
9.6
4.3
4.4
4.2
24.7
26.4
23.0
% over line
58%
40%
76%
68%
64%
72%
72%
80%
64%
% under line
42%
60%
24%
32%
36%
28%
28%
20%
36%
This opponent (FC Luzern) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Luzern
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.9
10.3
5.1
5.1
5.1
24.5
24.7
24.2
vs Stronger (5)
12.6
14.5
11.3
6.0
5.0
6.7
30.0
33.0
28.0
vs Similar (42)
10.5
10.9
9.9
4.9
5.0
4.8
24.1
24.2
24.1
vs Weaker (3)
9.7
7.0
15.0
6.3
6.5
6.0
20.3
22.5
16.0
% over line
56%
54%
58%
80%
77%
83%
78%
81%
75%
% under line
44%
46%
42%
20%
23%
17%
22%
19%
25%
This opponent (FC Basel 1893) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Servette FC
11.3
BSC Young Boys
11.1
Lausanne
10.7
FC Luzern
10.6
FC Zurich
10.6
FC Basel 1893
10.5
FC ST. Gallen
10.5
FC Sion
10.1
FC Winterthur
10.0
Yverdon Sport
9.9
Grasshoppers
9.7
FC Lugano
9.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC ST. Gallen
5.3
FC Lugano
5.2
FC Sion
5.1
FC Luzern
5.1
Yverdon Sport
4.8
Grasshoppers
4.8
FC Zurich
4.8
FC Basel 1893
4.7
Lausanne
4.6
BSC Young Boys
4.6
FC Winterthur
3.9
Servette FC
3.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Yverdon Sport
26.1
FC Basel 1893
24.7
FC Zurich
24.7
FC Lugano
24.6
FC Luzern
24.5
BSC Young Boys
24.0
Lausanne
24.0
FC ST. Gallen
23.6
Grasshoppers
23.2
FC Sion
23.2
Servette FC
22.0
FC Winterthur
20.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
54.6%
Under 9.5
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
68.7%
Under 3.5
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
74.6%
Under 21.5
25.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Basel 1893
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.37
1.33
0.33
1.07
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.12
0.40
1.25
0.33
1.00
0.46
vs Weaker (5)
1.60
0.20
1.67
0.33
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Luzern) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Luzern
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.83
0.62
0.81
0.57
0.86
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (24)
0.54
0.79
0.54
0.85
0.55
0.73
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Basel 1893) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Basel 1893 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Basel 1893 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Basel 1893 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Luzern over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Luzern over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Luzern over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Basel 1893
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.80
1.07
0.40
1.33
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.16
0.88
1.17
0.42
1.15
1.31
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
0.40
0.67
0.33
2.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Luzern) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Luzern
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.87
1.25
0.62
1.00
1.14
vs Stronger (4)
1.50
0.75
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (24)
1.00
0.92
1.08
0.69
0.91
1.18
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.50
2.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Basel 1893) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Basel 1893 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Basel 1893 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Basel 1893 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Luzern over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Luzern over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Luzern over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC Basel 1893
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Thierno Barry100%
Philip Otele39%
Xherdan Shaqiri32%
Kevin Carlos Omoruyi31%
Benie Traore31%
Albian Ajeti27%
Benjamin Kololli25%
Marin Šotiček14%
Dominik Schmid11%
Anton Kade11%
Leo Leroy8%
Bradley Fink6%
Romário Baró5%
Nicolas Vouilloz5%
Josafat Mendes3%
Adrian Leon Barišić3%
Leon Avdullahu3%
Marwin Hitz0%
Kevin Rüegg0%
Fabian Frei0%
Taulant Xhaka0%
Mirko Salvi0%
Arnau Comas0%
Metinho0%
Moussa Cissé0%
Gabriel Sigua0%
Romeo Beney0%
Finn van Breemen0%
Jonas Adjei Adjetey0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Arnau Comas33%
Romeo Beney33%
Leon Avdullahu29%
Nicolas Vouilloz25%
Josafat Mendes24%
Leo Leroy19%
Dominik Schmid17%
Adrian Leon Barišić17%
Metinho17%
Kevin Carlos Omoruyi16%
Anton Kade14%
Finn van Breemen13%
Moussa Cissé12%
Romário Baró10%
Taulant Xhaka10%
Xherdan Shaqiri9%
Benie Traore8%
Albian Ajeti7%
Bradley Fink6%
Gabriel Sigua6%
Jonas Adjei Adjetey6%
Philip Otele6%
Marin Šotiček4%
Marwin Hitz3%
Benjamin Kololli0%
Kevin Rüegg0%
Fabian Frei0%
Mirko Salvi0%
Thierno Barry0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Xherdan Shaqiri44%
Philip Otele22%
Benie Traore22%
Albian Ajeti20%
Metinho17%
Kevin Rüegg14%
Dominik Schmid14%
Anton Kade11%
Leo Leroy8%
Marin Šotiček7%
Bradley Fink6%
Josafat Mendes3%
Marwin Hitz0%
Benjamin Kololli0%
Romário Baró0%
Fabian Frei0%
Taulant Xhaka0%
Mirko Salvi0%
Nicolas Vouilloz0%
Adrian Leon Barišić0%
Arnau Comas0%
Kevin Carlos Omoruyi0%
Moussa Cissé0%
Gabriel Sigua0%
Thierno Barry0%
Romeo Beney0%
Finn van Breemen0%
Jonas Adjei Adjetey0%
Leon Avdullahu0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Thierno Barry100%
Kevin Carlos Omoruyi47%
Philip Otele28%
Albian Ajeti20%
Benie Traore17%
Xherdan Shaqiri15%
Dominik Schmid14%
Anton Kade8%
Leo Leroy6%
Marwin Hitz0%
Benjamin Kololli0%
Kevin Rüegg0%
Romário Baró0%
Fabian Frei0%
Taulant Xhaka0%
Mirko Salvi0%
Nicolas Vouilloz0%
Adrian Leon Barišić0%
Bradley Fink0%
Arnau Comas0%
Metinho0%
Josafat Mendes0%
Moussa Cissé0%
Gabriel Sigua0%
Romeo Beney0%
Finn van Breemen0%
Jonas Adjei Adjetey0%
Marin Šotiček0%
Leon Avdullahu0%
FC Luzern
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Donat Rrudhani27%
Adrian Grbić23%
Thibault Klidje22%
Luca Jaquez16%
Levin Winkler14%
Sinan Karweina14%
Lars Villiger13%
Kevin Spadanuda11%
Pius Dorn8%
Aleksandar Stanković8%
Stefan Knežević6%
Nicky Beloko5%
Bung Meng Freimann5%
Jakub Kadák4%
Severin Ottiger3%
Tyron Owusu3%
Andrejs Cigaņiks3%
Jesper Lofgren0%
Ismajl Beka0%
Dario Ulrich0%
Pascal Loretz0%
Ruben Dantas0%
Bung Hua Freimann0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ismajl Beka100%
Stefan Knežević36%
Nicky Beloko20%
Jesper Lofgren20%
Donat Rrudhani20%
Andrejs Cigaņiks17%
Pius Dorn16%
Severin Ottiger13%
Jakub Kadák13%
Levin Winkler11%
Bung Meng Freimann10%
Adrian Grbić10%
Aleksandar Stanković8%
Lars Villiger8%
Tyron Owusu6%
Kevin Spadanuda6%
Pascal Loretz5%
Luca Jaquez5%
Sinan Karweina5%
Dario Ulrich0%
Thibault Klidje0%
Ruben Dantas0%
Bung Hua Freimann0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Bung Hua Freimann33%
Donat Rrudhani20%
Pius Dorn19%
Lars Villiger13%
Andrejs Cigaņiks11%
Kevin Spadanuda11%
Levin Winkler11%
Severin Ottiger10%
Sinan Karweina9%
Jakub Kadák9%
Thibault Klidje8%
Aleksandar Stanković5%
Nicky Beloko5%
Adrian Grbić3%
Tyron Owusu3%
Jesper Lofgren0%
Stefan Knežević0%
Ismajl Beka0%
Dario Ulrich0%
Pascal Loretz0%
Luca Jaquez0%
Ruben Dantas0%
Bung Meng Freimann0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Thibault Klidje38%
Adrian Grbić16%
Sinan Karweina14%
Donat Rrudhani10%
Kevin Spadanuda6%
Aleksandar Stanković5%
Luca Jaquez5%
Lars Villiger5%
Andrejs Cigaņiks3%
Pius Dorn0%
Nicky Beloko0%
Jesper Lofgren0%
Stefan Knežević0%
Ismajl Beka0%
Dario Ulrich0%
Jakub Kadák0%
Tyron Owusu0%
Pascal Loretz0%
Severin Ottiger0%
Ruben Dantas0%
Levin Winkler0%
Bung Meng Freimann0%
Bung Hua Freimann0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (28)
€66m
FB1 (26)
€49m
FL (26)
€39m
FSG (28)
€32m
FS (28)
€30m
LAU (23)
€27m
FL (28)
€26m
SF (27)
€21m
GRA (35)
€16m
FZ (27)
€15m
FW (25)
€6m
FA (23)
€6m
YS (22)
€5m
FC Basel 1893's squad is €23m more valuable than FC Luzern's (€49m vs €26m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FB1 (11)
€16m
FL (11)
€15m
BYB (4)
€15m
FS (10)
€15m
FSG (11)
€12m
LAU (8)
€9m
FL (7)
€8m
SF (6)
€7m
FZ (7)
€6m
GRA (10)
€4m
YS (10)
€3m
FW (9)
€2m
FA (6)
€2m
FC Basel 1893's attack is €1m more valuable than FC Luzern's (€16m vs €15m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (8)
€18m
FB1 (5)
€16m
SF (9)
€7m
FL (5)
€7m
FSG (6)
€6m
FS (6)
€6m
LAU (5)
€5m
GRA (10)
€4m
FL (5)
€3m
FZ (6)
€3m
FW (7)
€2m
FA (4)
€1m
YS (3)
€1m
FC Basel 1893's midfield is €14m more valuable than FC Luzern's (€16m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (16)
€33m
FL (14)
€24m
FB1 (10)
€16m
FSG (11)
€14m
LAU (10)
€13m
FS (12)
€9m
SF (12)
€8m
FL (12)
€8m
GRA (15)
€7m
FZ (14)
€6m
FA (13)
€3m
FW (9)
€2m
YS (9)
€2m
FC Basel 1893's defence is €8m more valuable than FC Luzern's (€16m vs €8m).
Switzerland: Super League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Super League stats & trends →
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Servette FC
BSC Young Boys
FC Lugano
Lausanne
FC Zurich
FC ST. Gallen
FC Sion
Grasshoppers
FC Winterthur
Yverdon Sport
FC Aarau