FC Basel 1893 is the favourite to win this match, and the overall shape of the contest suggests a closely contested encounter. The home side is coming off a defeat, having lost their last match to Lausanne 0-1, while FC Thun is looking to build on their recent win over Vikingur Reykjavik, 3-0.
FC Basel 1893 has a 45% chance of winning, a 26% chance of drawing, and a 29% chance of losing. The expected total number of goals is 3.1, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 11.7%.
At home, FC Basel 1893 scores an average of 1.08 goals and concedes 1.31 goals per match against similar opponents. Away from home, FC Thun scores 1.2 goals and concedes 1.4 goals per match against similar opponents.
The model's selection is a home win, and it also suggests Over 21.5 fouls (87%), Over 1.5 goals (83%), and Over 3.5 cards (76%).
Results analysis
FC Basel 1893's win extends their run of form, coming off the back of a win against FC Thun last time out. The final score was 4-2, a convincing home victory. The model correctly called the home win, with a pre-match probability of 38%. The model's selection of the home win proved correct.
The model's selections largely came in, with over 21.5 fouls, over 1.5 goals and over 3.5 cards all hitting. The probability of over 21.5 fouls was 86.7%, while over 1.5 goals and over 3.5 cards had probabilities of 78% and 75.9% respectively.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Basel 1893 winâś“ Hit
38.3%
Avg Implied 51.6% · @ 1.80
Edge
-13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.87
Dafabet
1.85
Superbet
1.83
Betano
1.83
SBO
1.82
Drawâś— Miss
27.7%
Avg Implied 23.4% · @ 3.97
Edge
+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.21
Betfair
4.20
Dafabet
4.10
Bet365
4.10
10Bet
4.10
FC Thun winâś— Miss
34.1%
Avg Implied 25.0% · @ 3.72
Edge
+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
4.00
Pinnacle
3.96
Marathonbet
3.84
1xBet
3.82
10Bet
3.80
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Basel 1893
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.67
1.12
1.25
1.29
2.14
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (25)
1.16
1.76
1.14
1.29
1.18
2.36
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.33
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
17% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Thun) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Thun
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
1.57
2.40
1.87
1.80
1.27
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
2.00
-
-
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.84
1.68
2.21
1.93
1.36
1.36
vs Weaker (4)
3.75
0.75
5.00
1.00
3.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
13% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Basel 1893) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.0%
@ 1.11-5.8%
Under 1.5
22.0%
@ 5.74+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.14
Pinnacle
1.13
10Bet
1.13
888Sport
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Under
Betfair
6.50
Pinnacle
6.32
Bet365
6.00
10Bet
5.75
BetVictor
5.75
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.9%
@ 1.41-13.0%
Under 2.5
47.1%
@ 2.73+13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Superbet
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Under
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.87
10Bet
2.80
BetVictor
2.75
Superbet
2.72
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
30.6%
@ 2.04-15.5%
Under 3.5
69.4%
@ 1.74+15.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.09
Pinnacle
2.07
Betano
2.05
888Sport
2.05
10Bet
2.05
Under
Pinnacle
1.81
1xBet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.76
10Bet
1.75
SBO
1.75
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.8%
@ 1.41-8.0%
No
42.2%
@ 2.71+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.42
888Sport
1.40
No
Betfair
2.88
William Hil
2.80
888Sport
2.80
1xBet
2.73
BetVictor
2.70
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%@ 8.19+7.6%
2-1
8.6%@ 8.16+3.0%
1-2
8.1%@ 11.86+4.2%
1-0
7.6%@ 11.35+3.6%
0-0
7.3%@ 18.49+4.9%
0-1
7.1%@ 16.11+4.3%
2-0
6.4%@ 11.25+2.3%
2-2
5.8%@ 10.61+1.5%
FC Basel 1893 goals ↓
FC Thun goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.3%
7.1%
5.6%
2.5%
0.8%
1
7.6%
13%
8.1%
3.6%
1.2%
2
6.4%
8.6%
5.8%
2.6%
0.9%
3
3.1%
4.1%
2.8%
1.3%
0.4%
4
1.1%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Basel 1893 goals (down), columns = FC Thun goals (across).
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đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Lugano
3.00
BSC Young Boys
2.33
FC Sion
1.80
FC Basel 1893
1.67
FC Thun
1.40
FC ST. Gallen
1.40
FC Luzern
1.33
FC Zurich
1.00
Lausanne
1.00
Grasshoppers
0.80
Servette FC
0.80
FC Vaduz
0.50
FC Basel 1893 is 0.27 points better than FC Thun in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 1.40).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
BSC Young Boys
3.83
FC Lugano
2.80
FC Sion
2.20
FC Vaduz
2.17
FC ST. Gallen
2.00
FC Basel 1893
1.83
FC Thun
1.80
FC Zurich
1.50
Grasshoppers
1.40
FC Luzern
1.17
Lausanne
1.00
Servette FC
0.80
FC Basel 1893 is 0.03 goals better than FC Thun in terms of goals scored per game (1.83 vs 1.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Lugano
0.60
Lausanne
1.17
Servette FC
1.20
FC Basel 1893
1.50
FC Luzern
1.67
FC Sion
1.80
BSC Young Boys
1.83
FC ST. Gallen
2.20
Grasshoppers
2.40
FC Zurich
2.67
FC Vaduz
2.67
FC Thun
2.80
FC Basel 1893 is 1.30 goals better than FC Thun in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 2.80).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Sion
57%
FC ST. Gallen
56%
FC Lugano
55%
FC Vaduz
53%
Servette FC
53%
Lausanne
51%
FC Basel 1893
49%
BSC Young Boys
49%
FC Thun
46%
Grasshoppers
45%
FC Zurich
44%
FC Luzern
44%
FC Basel 1893 is 3.7 percentage points better than FC Thun in terms of average possession (49% vs 46%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Basel 1893
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.77
0.44
0.50
0.43
1.07
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (25)
0.40
0.76
0.43
0.50
0.36
1.09
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Thun) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Thun
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.73
1.00
0.87
0.80
0.60
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.72
0.80
0.93
0.86
0.45
0.73
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.50
2.00
1.00
1.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
50% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Basel 1893) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Basel 1893 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Basel 1893 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Basel 1893 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Thun over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Thun over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Thun over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Basel 1893
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.90
0.69
0.75
0.86
1.07
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.76
1.00
0.71
0.79
0.82
1.27
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Thun) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Thun
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.83
1.40
1.00
1.00
0.67
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.12
0.88
1.29
1.07
0.91
0.64
vs Weaker (4)
2.00
0.25
3.00
0.00
1.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
43% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Basel 1893) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Basel 1893 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Basel 1893 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Basel 1893 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Thun over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Thun over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Thun over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
78.0%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Pinnacle
1.13
10Bet
1.13
888Sport
1.13
Bet365
1.12
-5.8%
âś“ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (28)
€66m
FB1 (26)
€49m
FL (26)
€39m
FSG (28)
€32m
FS (28)
€30m
LAU (23)
€27m
FL (28)
€26m
SF (27)
€21m
FT (25)
€17m
GRA (35)
€16m
FZ (27)
€15m
FV (26)
€6m
FC Basel 1893's squad is €32m more valuable than FC Thun's (€49m vs €17m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FB1 (11)
€16m
FL (11)
€15m
BYB (4)
€15m
FS (10)
€15m
FSG (11)
€12m
LAU (8)
€9m
FL (7)
€8m
SF (6)
€7m
FZ (7)
€6m
GRA (10)
€4m
FT (7)
€4m
FV (9)
€2m
FC Basel 1893's attack is €12m more valuable than FC Thun's (€16m vs €4m).
🧠Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (8)
€18m
FB1 (5)
€16m
SF (9)
€7m
FL (5)
€7m
FSG (6)
€6m
FS (6)
€6m
LAU (5)
€5m
FT (8)
€5m
GRA (10)
€4m
FL (5)
€3m
FZ (6)
€3m
FV (8)
€2m
FC Basel 1893's midfield is €11m more valuable than FC Thun's (€16m vs €5m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (16)
€33m
FL (14)
€24m
FB1 (10)
€16m
FSG (11)
€14m
LAU (10)
€13m
FS (12)
€9m
SF (12)
€8m
FL (12)
€8m
FT (10)
€8m
GRA (15)
€7m
FZ (14)
€6m
FV (9)
€2m
FC Basel 1893's defence is €8m more valuable than FC Thun's (€16m vs €8m).
Switzerland: Super League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Super League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Lugano
BSC Young Boys
FC Sion
FC Luzern
FC ST. Gallen
Lausanne
FC Zurich
Servette FC
Grasshoppers
FC Vaduz