This opponent (Boavista) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Boavista
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.83
1.07
1.73
0.87
1.93
vs Stronger (24)
0.71
1.79
0.83
1.67
0.58
1.92
vs Similar (6)
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Porto) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.4%
Under 1.5
13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
66.7%
@ 1.46+2.2%
Under 2.5
33.3%
@ 2.65-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
44.9%
Under 3.5
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.9%
No
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.2%
3-0
9.8%
2-1 ✓
9.0%
3-1
7.9%
1-0
7.8%
1-1
7.5%
4-0
6.5%
4-1
5.2%
FC Porto goals ↓
Boavista goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.9%
1.9%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
1
7.8%
7.5%
2.7%
0.7%
0.1%
2
11%
9.0%
3.6%
1.0%
0.2%
3
9.8%
7.9%
3.2%
0.8%
0.2%
4
6.5%
5.2%
2.1%
0.6%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Porto goals (down), columns = Boavista goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
AVS
3.00
Sporting CP
2.65
Benfica
2.35
FC Porto
2.12
SC Braga
2.00
Guimaraes
1.85
Moreirense
1.62
Arouca
1.35
Famalicao
1.24
Casa Pia
1.12
Farense
1.09
Rio Ave
1.09
GIL Vicente
1.06
Estoril
0.97
Estrela
0.97
Boavista
0.94
Portimonense
0.89
Vizela
0.76
Chaves
0.68
FC Porto is 1.18 points better than Boavista in terms of average points per game (2.12 vs 0.94).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sporting CP
2.82
Benfica
2.26
SC Braga
2.09
AVS
2.00
FC Porto
1.85
Arouca
1.59
Guimaraes
1.53
Estoril
1.44
Farense
1.35
GIL Vicente
1.24
Boavista
1.15
Portimonense
1.14
Casa Pia
1.12
Rio Ave
1.12
Famalicao
1.09
Vizela
1.06
Moreirense
1.06
Estrela
0.97
Chaves
0.91
FC Porto is 0.71 goals better than Boavista in terms of goals scored per game (1.85 vs 1.15).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.79
Benfica
0.82
Sporting CP
0.85
AVS
1.00
Moreirense
1.03
Guimaraes
1.12
Famalicao
1.21
Rio Ave
1.26
Casa Pia
1.47
SC Braga
1.47
Arouca
1.47
Farense
1.50
GIL Vicente
1.53
Estrela
1.56
Estoril
1.71
Boavista
1.82
Vizela
1.94
Portimonense
2.11
Chaves
2.12
FC Porto is 1.03 goals better than Boavista in terms of goals conceded per game (0.79 vs 1.82).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Porto
64%
Benfica
59%
Sporting CP
59%
SC Braga
57%
Arouca
54%
Vizela
50%
GIL Vicente
49%
Rio Ave
49%
Estoril
49%
Guimaraes
48%
Boavista
48%
Famalicao
47%
Estrela
47%
Moreirense
46%
Portimonense
46%
Casa Pia
44%
Chaves
43%
Farense
42%
AVS
35%
FC Porto is 15.6 percentage points better than Boavista in terms of average possession (64% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC Porto
For 7.2 · Against 3.3 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 3.7 · Total 6.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.1 · Against 15.7 · Total 29.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Boavista
For 4.0 · Against 4.7 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 2.4 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.9 · Against 13.5 · Total 28.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Porto
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.8
10.4
5.3
5.1
5.6
29.6
27.8
31.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
8.8
9.0
8.6
5.5
5.6
5.5
29.2
27.0
31.4
vs Weaker (39)
11.2
11.3
11.1
5.3
5.0
5.6
29.8
28.0
31.5
% over line
57%
55%
60%
70%
72%
68%
88%
80%
95%
% under line
43%
45%
40%
30%
28%
32%
12%
20%
5%
This opponent (Boavista) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Boavista
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.8
9.7
3.7
4.2
3.2
29.0
29.4
28.6
vs Stronger (38)
9.4
9.1
9.8
4.0
4.5
3.4
29.2
30.1
28.2
vs Similar (12)
10.9
12.7
9.5
2.8
2.5
2.9
28.1
26.3
29.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
44%
50%
38%
54%
54%
54%
97%
100%
94%
% under line
56%
50%
62%
46%
46%
46%
3%
0%
6%
This opponent (FC Porto) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Farense
11.8
AVS
11.6
Portimonense
11.1
Chaves
10.9
Estrela
10.8
Benfica
10.7
Guimaraes
10.6
Vizela
10.4
FC Porto
10.4
Rio Ave
10.3
Casa Pia
10.2
Estoril
10.1
Famalicao
9.9
SC Braga
9.7
Moreirense
9.5
Arouca
9.5
GIL Vicente
9.4
Boavista
9.4
Sporting CP
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC Porto
6.6
Famalicao
6.4
Boavista
6.3
Chaves
6.0
Guimaraes
6.0
Arouca
5.8
Vizela
5.7
Portimonense
5.6
Estoril
5.6
AVS
5.5
Farense
5.4
Rio Ave
5.4
Sporting CP
5.2
GIL Vicente
5.1
Estrela
5.0
SC Braga
5.0
Benfica
5.0
Moreirense
4.8
Casa Pia
4.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Famalicao
31.3
Rio Ave
30.3
Chaves
29.8
FC Porto
28.9
Boavista
28.9
Vizela
28.8
Farense
28.3
Guimaraes
27.6
Portimonense
27.5
AVS
27.5
Moreirense
27.2
Arouca
27.1
Estoril
26.9
GIL Vicente
26.4
Casa Pia
26.4
Estrela
25.7
SC Braga
24.2
Sporting CP
24.1
Benfica
22.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
55.1%
Under 9.5
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
81.8%
Under 3.5
18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
88.3%
Under 21.5
11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Porto
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.50
0.87
0.40
0.93
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.00
0.57
1.50
0.25
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (23)
0.87
0.48
0.64
0.45
1.08
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Boavista) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Boavista
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.93
0.60
1.00
0.53
0.87
vs Stronger (24)
0.42
1.00
0.42
1.00
0.42
1.00
vs Similar (6)
1.17
0.67
1.33
1.00
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Porto) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Porto over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Porto
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.40
1.47
0.40
0.87
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.00
0.86
1.75
1.00
0.00
0.67
vs Weaker (23)
1.22
0.26
1.36
0.18
1.08
0.33
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Boavista) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Boavista
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.90
0.47
0.73
0.33
1.07
vs Stronger (24)
0.29
0.79
0.42
0.67
0.17
0.92
vs Similar (6)
0.83
1.33
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Porto) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Porto over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home win
75.7%
1.16
-
-
-
-
-
-5.8%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC Porto
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Evanilson41%
Iván Marcano40%
Wenderson Galeno29%
Mehdi Taremi27%
Toni Martínez18%
Francisco Conceição17%
Zé Pedro17%
Pepê12%
Zaidu Sanusi11%
Pepe10%
Wendell10%
Stephen Eustaquio8%
Nicolás González6%
João Mário6%
Danny Namaso5%
Alan Varela5%
Fábio Cardoso5%
Iván Jaime4%
Diogo Costa0%
Fran Navarro0%
Jorge Sánchez0%
Marko Grujić0%
Romário Baró0%
David Carmo0%
Gonçalo Borges0%
André Franco0%
João Mendes0%
Otávio Ataíde da Silva0%
Martim Fernandes0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
David Carmo73%
Francisco Conceição34%
Wendell33%
Fábio Cardoso29%
Nicolás González26%
Martim Fernandes25%
Otávio Ataíde da Silva21%
Alan Varela21%
Iván Marcano20%
João Mário20%
Pepe17%
Jorge Sánchez15%
Evanilson15%
Pepê15%
Toni Martínez14%
Wenderson Galeno13%
Stephen Eustaquio11%
Mehdi Taremi10%
Gonçalo Borges10%
Zé Pedro8%
Marko Grujić8%
Danny Namaso5%
André Franco5%
Diogo Costa0%
Fran Navarro0%
Romário Baró0%
Iván Jaime0%
Zaidu Sanusi0%
João Mendes0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Martim Fernandes25%
Wenderson Galeno24%
João Mendes20%
Pepê17%
Mehdi Taremi17%
Francisco Conceição14%
Otávio Ataíde da Silva14%
Evanilson12%
Danny Namaso11%
Jorge Sánchez10%
Gonçalo Borges10%
Marko Grujić8%
Wendell7%
João Mário6%
André Franco5%
Alan Varela5%
Fábio Cardoso5%
Pepe3%
Nicolás González3%
Stephen Eustaquio3%
Diogo Costa0%
Iván Marcano0%
Fran Navarro0%
Romário Baró0%
Zé Pedro0%
David Carmo0%
Iván Jaime0%
Toni Martínez0%
Zaidu Sanusi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Wenderson Galeno32%
Evanilson29%
Mehdi Taremi27%
Francisco Conceição23%
Iván Marcano20%
Toni Martínez14%
Pepê12%
Otávio Ataíde da Silva7%
Nicolás González6%
André Franco5%
Alan Varela5%
Iván Jaime4%
Wendell3%
João Mário3%
Stephen Eustaquio3%
Diogo Costa0%
Pepe0%
Fran Navarro0%
Jorge Sánchez0%
Danny Namaso0%
Marko Grujić0%
Fábio Cardoso0%
Romário Baró0%
Zé Pedro0%
David Carmo0%
Zaidu Sanusi0%
Gonçalo Borges0%
João Mendes0%
Martim Fernandes0%
Boavista
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tiago Morais35%
Róbert Boženík19%
Bruno Lourenço16%
Vincent Sasso12%
Salvador Agra10%
Miguel Reisinho10%
Pedro Malheiro9%
Joel Silva7%
Rodrigo Abascal7%
Gaius Makouta7%
Martim Tavares5%
Ilija Vukotić4%
Masaki Watai0%
Ibrahima Camará0%
Filipe Ferreira0%
Chidozie Awaziem0%
Sebastián Pérez0%
Jeriel De Santis0%
João Gonçalves0%
Luís Santos0%
Bruno Onyemaechi0%
Berna0%
Machado0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sebastián Pérez46%
Pedro Malheiro35%
Gaius Makouta30%
Rodrigo Abascal28%
Chidozie Awaziem25%
Salvador Agra23%
Miguel Reisinho23%
Ilija Vukotić18%
Vincent Sasso18%
Tiago Morais18%
Jeriel De Santis17%
Luís Santos16%
Filipe Ferreira15%
Róbert Boženík13%
Bruno Lourenço12%
Bruno Onyemaechi12%
João Gonçalves12%
Berna11%
Joel Silva7%
Ibrahima Camará7%
Martim Tavares5%
Masaki Watai0%
Machado0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tiago Morais12%
Martim Tavares9%
Pedro Malheiro9%
Gaius Makouta7%
Miguel Reisinho6%
Róbert Boženík6%
Luís Santos5%
Chidozie Awaziem4%
Bruno Onyemaechi4%
Filipe Ferreira4%
Salvador Agra3%
Bruno Lourenço3%
Masaki Watai0%
Ibrahima Camará0%
Vincent Sasso0%
Ilija Vukotić0%
Rodrigo Abascal0%
Sebastián Pérez0%
Jeriel De Santis0%
João Gonçalves0%
Berna0%
Joel Silva0%
Machado0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Róbert Boženík42%
Tiago Morais6%
Martim Tavares5%
Pedro Malheiro4%
Rodrigo Abascal3%
Bruno Lourenço3%
Masaki Watai0%
Salvador Agra0%
Ibrahima Camará0%
Vincent Sasso0%
Filipe Ferreira0%
Ilija Vukotić0%
Gaius Makouta0%
Miguel Reisinho0%
Chidozie Awaziem0%
Sebastián Pérez0%
Jeriel De Santis0%
João Gonçalves0%
Luís Santos0%
Bruno Onyemaechi0%
Berna0%
Joel Silva0%
Machado0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
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Sporting CP
Benfica
SC Braga
Guimaraes
Moreirense
Arouca
Famalicao
Casa Pia
Farense
Rio Ave
GIL Vicente
Estoril
Estrela
Portimonense
Vizela
Chaves
AVS