This opponent (Rio Ave) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rio Ave
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.27
0.80
1.07
0.93
1.47
vs Stronger (8)
0.88
2.12
0.83
1.67
1.00
3.50
vs Similar (15)
0.80
1.00
0.80
0.80
0.80
1.10
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
0.86
0.75
0.50
1.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Porto) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
82.4%
Under 1.5
17.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
60.0%
@ 1.63+1.8%
Under 2.5
40.0%
@ 2.27-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
37.6%
Under 3.5
62.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.6%
No
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.7%
3-0
10.1%
1-0 ✓
9.9%
2-1
9.2%
1-1
8.5%
3-1
7.3%
4-0
6.0%
0-0
5.3%
FC Porto goals ↓
Rio Ave goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.3%
2.5%
1.2%
0.3%
0.1%
1
9.9%
8.5%
2.8%
0.7%
0.1%
2
13%
9.2%
3.3%
0.8%
0.1%
3
10%
7.3%
2.7%
0.6%
0.1%
4
6.0%
4.3%
1.6%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Porto goals (down), columns = Rio Ave goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Benfica
2.56
FC Porto
2.50
SC Braga
2.29
Sporting CP
2.18
Arouca
1.59
Guimaraes
1.56
Estrela
1.50
Chaves
1.35
Boavista
1.29
Famalicao
1.29
Casa Pia
1.21
Vizela
1.18
Rio Ave
1.18
GIL Vicente
1.09
Estoril
1.03
Portimonense
1.00
Maritimo
0.81
Pacos Ferreira
0.68
Santa Clara
0.65
FC Porto is 1.32 points better than Rio Ave in terms of average points per game (2.50 vs 1.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Benfica
2.41
SC Braga
2.21
FC Porto
2.15
Sporting CP
2.09
Estrela
1.50
Boavista
1.26
Famalicao
1.15
Rio Ave
1.06
Arouca
1.06
Chaves
1.03
Vizela
1.00
Guimaraes
1.00
Maritimo
0.97
Estoril
0.97
GIL Vicente
0.94
Casa Pia
0.91
Pacos Ferreira
0.76
Santa Clara
0.76
Portimonense
0.74
FC Porto is 1.09 goals better than Rio Ave in terms of goals scored per game (2.15 vs 1.06).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Benfica
0.59
FC Porto
0.65
SC Braga
0.88
Sporting CP
0.94
Arouca
1.09
Vizela
1.12
Guimaraes
1.15
Chaves
1.18
Casa Pia
1.18
GIL Vicente
1.21
Rio Ave
1.26
Famalicao
1.38
Portimonense
1.41
Estoril
1.44
Estrela
1.50
Boavista
1.59
Santa Clara
1.71
Pacos Ferreira
1.82
Maritimo
1.83
FC Porto is 0.62 goals better than Rio Ave in terms of goals conceded per game (0.65 vs 1.26).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC Porto
For 6.2 · Against 4.0 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 3.3 · Total 5.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 13.1 · Total 24.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rio Ave
For 6.5 · Against 5.2 · Total 11.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.5 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.6 · Against 17.7 · Total 32.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Porto
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.7
9.1
3.8
3.7
4.0
26.8
25.5
28.1
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
9.2
9.4
9.0
6.4
6.3
6.6
26.3
24.6
28.5
vs Weaker (38)
9.5
9.9
9.2
3.0
2.6
3.3
27.0
25.9
28.0
% over line
43%
53%
33%
48%
46%
50%
80%
73%
87%
% under line
57%
47%
67%
52%
54%
50%
20%
27%
13%
This opponent (Rio Ave) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rio Ave
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
8.7
11.2
2.7
3.0
2.4
31.8
32.7
30.9
vs Stronger (12)
9.9
9.3
10.2
2.8
3.3
2.3
34.3
37.3
32.0
vs Similar (26)
10.3
8.8
12.1
2.9
3.6
2.3
30.9
31.9
29.7
vs Weaker (12)
9.4
8.2
10.5
2.2
1.9
2.6
31.2
30.8
31.8
% over line
53%
40%
67%
40%
52%
28%
97%
100%
93%
% under line
47%
60%
33%
60%
48%
72%
3%
0%
7%
This opponent (FC Porto) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Estrela
12.3
Vizela
11.3
Chaves
11.1
Benfica
10.8
Pacos Ferreira
10.2
Portimonense
10.1
Guimaraes
10.1
Rio Ave
10.1
GIL Vicente
10.1
Estoril
10.0
Boavista
9.9
FC Porto
9.7
Santa Clara
9.6
Famalicao
9.6
Arouca
9.4
SC Braga
9.4
Maritimo
9.2
Sporting CP
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Estrela
7.1
Arouca
6.6
Boavista
6.4
Famalicao
6.4
Maritimo
6.4
FC Porto
6.4
Sporting CP
6.4
Vizela
6.1
GIL Vicente
6.0
Pacos Ferreira
5.7
Guimaraes
5.7
Santa Clara
5.7
Estoril
5.6
Portimonense
5.6
SC Braga
5.5
Benfica
5.2
Chaves
5.0
Rio Ave
4.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Maritimo
34.1
Santa Clara
31.7
Chaves
31.6
Estrela
31.3
Pacos Ferreira
31.2
Arouca
31.0
Famalicao
30.9
Rio Ave
30.8
Guimaraes
30.4
Boavista
30.0
Estoril
29.9
Portimonense
29.3
Sporting CP
28.6
FC Porto
28.6
Vizela
27.9
GIL Vicente
27.0
SC Braga
26.8
Benfica
26.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
54.5%
Under 9.5
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
83.4%
Under 3.5
16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
91.2%
Under 21.5
8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Porto
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.20
1.50
0.14
0.50
0.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.50
0.10
0.60
0.20
0.40
0.00
vs Weaker (20)
1.20
0.25
2.00
0.11
0.55
0.36
Clean sheet %
87% (+57pp vs league)
This opponent (Rio Ave) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rio Ave
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.4
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.53
0.40
0.40
0.27
0.67
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
0.88
0.50
0.50
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (15)
0.27
0.27
0.40
0.20
0.20
0.30
vs Weaker (7)
0.29
0.71
0.25
0.50
0.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Porto) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Porto over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rio Ave over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rio Ave over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rio Ave over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Porto
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.53
1.36
0.71
1.12
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.30
0.80
0.80
1.00
1.80
0.60
vs Weaker (20)
1.20
0.40
1.67
0.56
0.82
0.27
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Rio Ave) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rio Ave
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.73
0.40
0.67
0.67
0.80
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
1.25
0.33
1.17
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.73
0.40
0.60
0.60
0.80
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
0.14
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Porto) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Porto over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rio Ave over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rio Ave over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rio Ave over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home win
73.4%
1.17
-
-
-
-
-
-7.4%
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC Porto
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mehdi Taremi48%
Evanilson23%
Wenderson Galeno21%
Otávio15%
Iván Marcano14%
Mateus Uribe13%
Toni Martínez13%
Danny Namaso12%
Stephen Eustáquio11%
André Franco11%
Pepê10%
Fábio Cardoso10%
João Mário4%
Zaidu Sanusi4%
Marko Grujić4%
Wendell3%
Diogo Costa0%
Pepe0%
Bruno Costa0%
Wilson Manafá0%
Rodrigo Conceição0%
David Carmo0%
Gonçalo Borges0%
Bernardo Folha0%
Gabriel Veron0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Iván Marcano32%
David Carmo29%
Otávio26%
Mateus Uribe26%
João Mário26%
Fábio Cardoso24%
Marko Grujić21%
Mehdi Taremi20%
Pepe14%
Wilson Manafá14%
Bernardo Folha14%
Wendell12%
Pepê12%
Zaidu Sanusi12%
Stephen Eustáquio11%
André Franco11%
Wenderson Galeno10%
Danny Namaso8%
Gonçalo Borges7%
Gabriel Veron5%
Evanilson3%
Diogo Costa2%
Bruno Costa0%
Rodrigo Conceição0%
Toni Martínez0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Otávio21%
Mehdi Taremi20%
Evanilson19%
Pepê14%
João Mário13%
Bruno Costa11%
Stephen Eustáquio11%
Toni Martínez11%
Wenderson Galeno10%
Gabriel Veron10%
Danny Namaso8%
Wendell6%
Diogo Costa2%
Pepe0%
Wilson Manafá0%
Iván Marcano0%
Mateus Uribe0%
Marko Grujić0%
Fábio Cardoso0%
Rodrigo Conceição0%
David Carmo0%
Zaidu Sanusi0%
Gonçalo Borges0%
André Franco0%
Bernardo Folha0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mehdi Taremi45%
Wenderson Galeno18%
Evanilson16%
Toni Martínez13%
Stephen Eustáquio8%
Gonçalo Borges7%
Gabriel Veron5%
Pepê5%
Danny Namaso4%
Marko Grujić4%
Otávio3%
Mateus Uribe3%
Diogo Costa0%
Pepe0%
Bruno Costa0%
Wilson Manafá0%
Iván Marcano0%
Wendell0%
Fábio Cardoso0%
Rodrigo Conceição0%
João Mário0%
David Carmo0%
Zaidu Sanusi0%
André Franco0%
Bernardo Folha0%
Rio Ave
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Aziz35%
Emmanuel Boateng21%
Leonardo Ruiz16%
Fábio Ronaldo10%
Hernâni10%
Costinha9%
Pedro Amaral8%
Patrick William8%
Gonçalo Rodrigues6%
João Graça5%
André Pereira5%
Renato Pantalon5%
Paulo Vitor4%
Aderllan Santos3%
Andreas Samaris0%
Sávio0%
Jhonatan0%
Joca Fernandes0%
Ukra0%
Vítor Gomes0%
Miguel Nóbrega0%
Amine Oudrhiri0%
Josué Sá0%
João Ferreira0%
Miguel Baeza0%
Bruno Ventura0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
João Ferreira50%
Pedro Amaral42%
João Graça37%
Renato Pantalon32%
Josué Sá28%
Patrick William27%
Andreas Samaris25%
André Pereira24%
Leonardo Ruiz20%
Emmanuel Boateng18%
Joca Fernandes17%
Costinha15%
Vítor Gomes15%
Sávio14%
Ukra13%
Gonçalo Rodrigues12%
Paulo Vitor12%
Aziz12%
Amine Oudrhiri11%
Fábio Ronaldo10%
Jhonatan9%
Aderllan Santos9%
Hernâni5%
Miguel Nóbrega0%
Miguel Baeza0%
Bruno Ventura0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Aziz18%
Pedro Amaral17%
Joca Fernandes17%
André Pereira14%
Ukra13%
Fábio Ronaldo10%
Miguel Nóbrega9%
Costinha9%
Sávio7%
Gonçalo Rodrigues6%
Josué Sá6%
João Graça5%
Vítor Gomes5%
Hernâni5%
Miguel Baeza5%
Andreas Samaris4%
Paulo Vitor4%
Patrick William4%
Emmanuel Boateng0%
Renato Pantalon0%
Jhonatan0%
Amine Oudrhiri0%
Aderllan Santos0%
Leonardo Ruiz0%
João Ferreira0%
Bruno Ventura0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Aziz18%
Joca Fernandes17%
Emmanuel Boateng14%
Leonardo Ruiz8%
Costinha6%
André Pereira5%
Hernâni5%
Paulo Vitor4%
Fábio Ronaldo3%
Gonçalo Rodrigues3%
Andreas Samaris0%
Patrick William0%
Sávio0%
Renato Pantalon0%
Pedro Amaral0%
Jhonatan0%
Ukra0%
Vítor Gomes0%
Miguel Nóbrega0%
Amine Oudrhiri0%
Aderllan Santos0%
Josué Sá0%
João Graça0%
João Ferreira0%
Miguel Baeza0%
Bruno Ventura0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
FAM (23)
€57m
GUI (29)
€46m
EST (25)
€42m
RA (26)
€37m
GV (28)
€29m
ARO (25)
€28m
CP (29)
€27m
SC (28)
€27m
EST (22)
€20m
MAR (27)
€16m
VIZ (29)
€12m
CHA (22)
€9m
POR (20)
€6m
PF (13)
€2m
FC Porto's squad is €430m more valuable than Rio Ave's (€467m vs €37m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
EST (8)
€24m
GUI (10)
€22m
FAM (8)
€16m
ARO (11)
€11m
GV (12)
€11m
CP (11)
€9m
SC (11)
€9m
RA (8)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
EST (6)
€6m
VIZ (13)
€5m
CHA (5)
€3m
POR (7)
€2m
PF (3)
€1m
FC Porto's attack is €207m more valuable than Rio Ave's (€214m vs €8m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
FAM (6)
€20m
GUI (6)
€11m
EST (5)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
ARO (4)
€8m
GV (6)
€8m
CP (7)
€6m
SC (5)
€6m
MAR (6)
€3m
EST (5)
€3m
CHA (5)
€2m
VIZ (5)
€2m
POR (5)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
FC Porto's midfield is €97m more valuable than Rio Ave's (€105m vs €8m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
FAM (9)
€22m
RA (13)
€21m
SC (12)
€12m
GUI (13)
€12m
CP (11)
€12m
EST (11)
€11m
GV (10)
€11m
EST (12)
€10m
ARO (10)
€8m
MAR (11)
€6m
VIZ (11)
€4m
CHA (12)
€4m
POR (8)
€3m
PF (8)
€1m
FC Porto's defence is €126m more valuable than Rio Ave's (€148m vs €21m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →