FC Sion’s recent five games have been a mixed bag, with two straight defeats before a win and a draw, yet they have kept just 0.45 goals against in home matches against similarly strong opponents, scoring 1.91 on average. FC Lugano, unbeaten in their last five away fixtures, have conceded 0.78 and scored 1.44 against comparable opposition. The model sees a 38% chance of a home win, 30% for a draw and 32% for an away win, picking a home victory as the most likely outcome. The expected total is 2.4 goals, with a 27% chance that exactly two goals will be scored. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.2% probability. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.6% with a 3% edge), Under 6.5 (98.7% with a 5% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.4% with a 5% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.4% with a 6% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (97.0% with a 6% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.9% with a 6% edge), Under 5.5 (96.2% with a 9% edge) and Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.9% with a 7% edge).
Results analysis
The upset came early, as the pre-match favourite, Home win, failed to deliver, with FC Lugano snatching a 2-1 victory. The model had given the home side a 38% chance of triumph, but the result was an away win, so the favourite call was wrong. The final score of 1-2 matched the actual outcome. The model’s other selections all hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.6%, Under 6.5 at 98.7%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.2%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.8%, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.0%, Under 5.5 at 96.2%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 95.9%, and Home under 3.5 goals at 95.9%. FC Sion’s recent form of LLLWW ended with a loss, while FC Lugano’s unbeaten run of WDWDW continued with a win.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Sion win✗ Miss
38.0%
Avg Implied 42.8% · @ 2.18
Edge
-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.29
Unibet
2.23
1xBet
2.23
Marathonbet
2.21
10Bet
2.20
Draw✗ Miss
29.9%
Avg Implied 26.2% · @ 3.57
Edge
+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.70
Betfair
3.70
Bet365
3.70
Unibet
3.65
BetVictor
3.60
FC Lugano win✓ Hit
32.1%
Avg Implied 31.0% · @ 3.02
Edge
+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.23
Dafabet
3.15
1xBet
3.13
Marathonbet
3.12
Superbet
3.10
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Sion
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.9
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
1.27
2.00
0.81
1.93
1.79
vs Stronger (5)
2.60
3.40
2.50
2.50
2.67
4.00
vs Similar (22)
1.82
0.82
1.91
0.45
1.73
1.18
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Lugano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Lugano
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
0.90
2.33
0.87
1.47
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.86
0.86
2.25
0.92
1.40
0.80
vs Weaker (8)
2.00
1.00
2.67
0.67
1.60
1.20
Clean sheet %
33% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Sion) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.3%
@ 1.15-9.5%
Under 1.5
28.7%
@ 4.88+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Pinnacle
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Under
Betfair
5.50
Pinnacle
5.43
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
44.1%
@ 1.53-16.6%
Under 2.5
55.9%
@ 2.37+16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.58
Betano
1.57
10Bet
1.55
Unibet
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Under
Betfair
2.55
Pinnacle
2.48
Superbet
2.42
Bet365
2.40
10Bet
2.40
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.0%
@ 2.32-17.5%
Under 3.5
77.0%
@ 1.57+17.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.39
Betfair
2.38
Betano
2.35
10Bet
2.35
Unibet
2.35
Under
Pinnacle
1.62
Superbet
1.60
1xBet
1.59
Marathonbet
1.59
Betano
1.57
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.9%
@ 1.45-12.7%
No
49.1%
@ 2.54+12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.50
Unibet
1.48
Superbet
1.45
10Bet
1.45
Betano
1.45
No
Betfair
2.70
1xBet
2.58
Superbet
2.55
BetVictor
2.55
Betano
2.55
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%@ 6.91+7.7%
0-0
10.0%@ 14.23+6.8%
1-0
9.9%@ 10.46+5.6%
0-1
8.8%@ 12.40+5.2%
2-1
8.3%@ 8.42+2.9%
1-2 ✓
7.5%@ 9.96+3.0%
2-0
7.2%@ 12.45+3.5%
0-2
5.8%@ 17.22+3.2%
FC Sion goals ↓
FC Lugano goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
8.8%
5.8%
2.3%
0.7%
1
9.9%
14%
7.5%
2.9%
0.8%
2
7.2%
8.3%
4.8%
1.9%
0.5%
3
3.1%
3.5%
2.1%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.0%
1.1%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Sion goals (down), columns = FC Lugano goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Lugano
3.00
BSC Young Boys
2.33
FC Sion
1.80
FC Basel 1893
1.67
FC Thun
1.40
FC ST. Gallen
1.40
FC Luzern
1.33
FC Zurich
1.00
Lausanne
1.00
Grasshoppers
0.80
Servette FC
0.80
FC Vaduz
0.50
FC Sion is 1.20 points worse than FC Lugano in terms of average points per game (1.80 vs 3.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
BSC Young Boys
3.83
FC Lugano
2.80
FC Sion
2.20
FC Vaduz
2.17
FC ST. Gallen
2.00
FC Basel 1893
1.83
FC Thun
1.80
FC Zurich
1.50
Grasshoppers
1.40
FC Luzern
1.17
Lausanne
1.00
Servette FC
0.80
FC Sion is 0.60 goals worse than FC Lugano in terms of goals scored per game (2.20 vs 2.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Lugano
0.60
Lausanne
1.17
Servette FC
1.20
FC Basel 1893
1.50
FC Luzern
1.67
FC Sion
1.80
BSC Young Boys
1.83
FC ST. Gallen
2.20
Grasshoppers
2.40
FC Zurich
2.67
FC Vaduz
2.67
FC Thun
2.80
FC Sion is 1.20 goals worse than FC Lugano in terms of goals conceded per game (1.80 vs 0.60).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Sion
57%
FC ST. Gallen
56%
FC Lugano
55%
FC Vaduz
53%
Servette FC
53%
Lausanne
51%
FC Basel 1893
49%
BSC Young Boys
49%
FC Thun
46%
Grasshoppers
45%
FC Zurich
44%
FC Luzern
44%
FC Sion is 1.2 percentage points better than FC Lugano in terms of average possession (57% vs 55%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC Sion
For 4.8 · Against 3.9 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.4 · Against 12.6 · Total 22.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Lugano
For 5.2 · Against 4.1 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.9 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.4 · Against 11.7 · Total 24.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Sion
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.4
9.5
4.5
4.8
4.3
26.5
27.0
26.0
vs Stronger (7)
9.6
9.0
10.0
3.4
4.0
3.0
23.4
25.7
21.8
vs Similar (38)
9.2
9.3
9.2
4.7
4.7
4.8
27.3
27.6
26.9
vs Weaker (5)
11.0
10.7
11.5
4.8
6.3
2.5
24.6
23.7
26.0
% over line
50%
50%
50%
70%
73%
67%
80%
77%
83%
% under line
50%
50%
50%
30%
27%
33%
20%
23%
17%
This opponent (FC Lugano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Lugano
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.8
8.7
8.9
4.5
4.1
4.8
25.2
24.8
25.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (40)
8.6
8.1
9.2
4.7
4.4
5.0
25.3
25.2
25.4
vs Weaker (10)
9.4
11.8
7.8
3.7
2.8
4.3
25.0
23.0
26.3
% over line
35%
32%
39%
72%
69%
75%
83%
80%
87%
% under line
65%
68%
61%
28%
31%
25%
17%
20%
13%
This opponent (FC Sion) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
FC Zurich
10.8
Lausanne
10.6
FC Luzern
10.5
FC ST. Gallen
10.5
Servette FC
10.3
FC Thun
10.3
FC Basel 1893
10.2
FC Vaduz
9.8
Grasshoppers
9.7
BSC Young Boys
9.5
FC Sion
9.5
FC Lugano
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC ST. Gallen
5.9
Grasshoppers
5.2
Lausanne
5.0
FC Zurich
5.0
FC Thun
5.0
FC Vaduz
4.9
FC Basel 1893
4.8
FC Lugano
4.6
Servette FC
4.6
FC Luzern
4.6
FC Sion
4.5
BSC Young Boys
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC ST. Gallen
30.3
FC Thun
28.0
FC Zurich
27.6
FC Sion
26.5
FC Basel 1893
26.4
FC Lugano
25.2
Grasshoppers
25.0
Lausanne
24.6
FC Vaduz
24.4
FC Luzern
24.0
BSC Young Boys
24.0
Servette FC
23.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
51.6%
@ 1.82+0.5%
Under 9.5
48.4%
@ 1.91-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.95
Betano
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Superbet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.81
Under
Pinnacle
1.99
1xBet
1.96
Unibet
1.96
Marathonbet
1.93
Betano
1.87
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
72.2%
Under 3.5
27.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
81.4%
Under 21.5
18.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC Sion or Draw✗ Miss
67.9%
Avg Implied 68.8% · @ 1.36
Edge
-0.9%
38%
30%
32%
covers FC Sion + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.39
10Bet
1.38
William Hil
1.36
FC Sion or FC Lugano✓ Hit
70.1%
Avg Implied 74.3% · @ 1.26
Edge
-4.2%
38%
30%
32%
covers FC Sion + FC Lugano
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.27
BetVictor
1.25
Draw or FC Lugano✓ Hit
62.0%
Avg Implied 56.9% · @ 1.64
Edge
+5.1%
38%
30%
32%
covers Draw + FC Lugano
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.70
Bet365
1.67
William Hil
1.67
SBO
1.67
Superbet
1.66
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC Sion over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
72.3%
@ 1.15-8.3%
Under
27.7%
@ 4.76+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
Unibet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Under
Betfair
5.00
Superbet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
BetVictor
4.80
10Bet
4.75
FC Sion over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
36.7%
@ 1.80-15.2%
Under
63.3%
@ 1.94+15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.85
Marathonbet
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Unibet
1.82
Betano
1.80
Under
Pinnacle
2.01
Betfair
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Betano
1.95
Marathonbet
1.94
FC Sion over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.9%
@ 3.49-12.8%
Under
86.1%
@ 1.27+12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.65
BetVictor
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Unibet
3.55
Betfair
3.50
Under
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.27
FC Sion over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.1%
@ 7.67-8.0%
Under
95.9%
@ 1.06+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.50
1xBet
7.30
Marathonbet
7.30
Superbet
7.20
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.04
FC Lugano over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
68.6%
@ 1.23-6.8%
Under
31.4%
@ 3.77+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Unibet
1.24
Superbet
1.24
Under
Pinnacle
4.12
Betfair
4.00
Superbet
3.80
BetVictor
3.80
Bet365
3.75
FC Lugano over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
32.2%
@ 2.17-10.8%
Under
67.8%
@ 1.64+10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.27
1xBet
2.21
Marathonbet
2.21
Bet365
2.20
Superbet
2.17
Under
Betfair
1.67
Pinnacle
1.67
Superbet
1.65
Betano
1.65
BetVictor
1.65
FC Lugano over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.2%
@ 4.74-8.4%
Under
88.8%
@ 1.16+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
1xBet
4.85
Marathonbet
4.85
10Bet
4.75
BetVictor
4.75
Under
Betano
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
BetVictor
1.15
FC Lugano over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.0%
@ 10.61-5.9%
Under
97.0%
@ 1.03+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
11.00
Betfair
10.00
Marathonbet
9.80
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FC Sion, so a minus line means FC Sion give that many goals of a start and FC Lugano receive them. At -1, FC Sion must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC Sion win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC Sion)Actual: FC Lugano
FC Sion -2
6.1%
@ 7.97-5.2%
Draw -2
11.4%
@ 6.16-3.1%
FC Lugano +2
82.5%
@ 1.21+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
9.50
Bet365
8.50
Unibet
8.00
10Bet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.30
Draw
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.45
10Bet
6.00
Unibet
5.75
Away
Superbet
1.25
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Unibet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
Handicap -1 (FC Sion)Actual: FC Lugano
FC Sion -1
17.5%
@ 3.83-5.8%
Draw -1
20.5%
@ 4.06-1.5%
FC Lugano +1
62.0%
@ 1.63+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
3.90
Unibet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.75
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
Superbet
4.10
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.90
Away
Superbet
1.68
Bet365
1.67
10Bet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.62
Unibet
1.61
Handicap +1 (FC Sion)Actual: Draw
FC Sion +1
67.9%
@ 1.36+2.4%
Draw +1
18.4%
@ 4.76-0.4%
FC Lugano -1
13.7%
@ 5.67-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.38
Unibet
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Draw
Marathonbet
5.15
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
5.00
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Away
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.80
10Bet
5.75
Superbet
5.55
Bet365
5.50
Handicap +2 (FC Sion)Actual: FC Sion
FC Sion +2
86.3%
@ 1.11+3.8%
Draw +2
9.3%
@ 8.75-1.1%
FC Lugano -2
4.3%
@ 13.00-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.10
Draw
Betfair
9.00
Bet365
8.50
Away
Betfair
14.00
Bet365
12.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Sion
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.67
0.81
0.44
0.79
0.93
vs Stronger (5)
1.40
1.20
1.50
0.00
1.33
2.00
vs Similar (22)
0.73
0.50
0.82
0.36
0.64
0.64
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
1.00
0.33
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Lugano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Lugano
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.33
1.27
0.20
0.27
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.77
0.32
1.08
0.25
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (8)
0.75
0.38
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.60
Clean sheet %
67% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Sion) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
69.5%
@ 1.27-3.8%
Under 0.5
30.5%
@ 3.49+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.26
Under
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
William Hil
3.70
Superbet
3.65
BetVictor
3.60
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
32.6%
@ 2.24-9.0%
Under 1.5
67.4%
@ 1.60+9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.35
Pinnacle
2.34
Betfair
2.25
1xBet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.25
Under
Superbet
1.63
William Hil
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Pinnacle
1.61
10Bet
1.60
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.9%
@ 5.01-7.7%
Under 2.5
89.1%
@ 1.14+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
BetVictor
5.25
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
1xBet
4.95
Under
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Betano
1.16
William Hil
1.15
BetVictor
1.13
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Sion over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
45.5%
@ 1.74-8.0%
Under
54.5%
@ 2.00+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.78
Pinnacle
1.77
Marathonbet
1.76
Unibet
1.74
10Bet
1.73
Under
Pinnacle
2.07
Superbet
2.05
1xBet
2.03
10Bet
2.00
Betano
1.98
FC Sion over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.8%
@ 4.53-7.6%
Under
87.2%
@ 1.16+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.80
Betano
4.60
10Bet
4.50
1xBet
4.40
Superbet
4.35
Under
Superbet
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
FC Sion over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.2%
@ 12.08-5.6%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.02+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
13.00
Superbet
13.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
FC Lugano over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
43.1%
@ 1.97-4.0%
Under
56.9%
@ 1.76+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.05
Betano
2.02
Marathonbet
1.98
Superbet
1.95
10Bet
1.95
Under
Pinnacle
1.79
1xBet
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Superbet
1.76
Betano
1.75
FC Lugano over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.6%
@ 5.85-5.2%
Under
89.4%
@ 1.10+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.20
1xBet
5.80
Betano
5.80
10Bet
5.75
Superbet
5.70
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
FC Lugano over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 16.67-3.9%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.01+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
19.00
Superbet
19.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Sion
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.60
1.19
0.38
1.14
0.86
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
2.20
1.00
2.50
1.33
2.00
vs Similar (22)
1.09
0.32
1.09
0.09
1.09
0.55
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.00
1.67
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Lugano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Lugano
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.57
1.07
0.67
1.20
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.09
0.55
1.17
0.67
1.00
0.40
vs Weaker (8)
1.25
0.62
0.67
0.67
1.60
0.60
Clean sheet %
53% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Sion) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.2%
@ 1.14-3.3%
Under 0.5
21.8%
@ 5.02+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
Under
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.00
Betano
5.00
Marathonbet
4.90
1xBet
4.90
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
43.2%
@ 1.74-10.3%
Under 1.5
56.8%
@ 2.01+10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.75
William Hil
1.75
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.74
Superbet
1.74
Under
Betano
2.05
Marathonbet
2.02
Superbet
2.02
1xBet
2.02
William Hil
2.00
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
17.1%
@ 3.24-11.5%
Under 2.5
82.9%
@ 1.30+11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
William Hil
3.30
Superbet
3.25
1xBet
3.18
Marathonbet
3.18
Under
Betano
1.34
Superbet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
William Hil
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Sion over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
55.4%
@ 1.49-6.9%
Under
44.6%
@ 2.45+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.49
1xBet
1.48
10Bet
1.48
Under
1xBet
2.47
Betano
2.47
10Bet
2.45
Superbet
2.42
FC Sion over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
17.9%
@ 3.31-10.1%
Under
82.1%
@ 1.28+10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.40
Superbet
3.35
Marathonbet
3.34
Betano
3.25
1xBet
3.20
Under
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
FC Sion over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.3%
@ 8.32-6.8%
Under
95.7%
@ 1.04+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.80
Superbet
8.50
10Bet
8.50
Betano
7.50
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
FC Lugano over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
49.8%
@ 1.65-6.4%
Under
50.2%
@ 2.12+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.66
Superbet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.65
Betano
1.65
10Bet
1.62
Under
Betano
2.15
10Bet
2.15
Superbet
2.10
1xBet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.08
FC Lugano over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
15.1%
@ 4.15-7.2%
Under
84.9%
@ 1.19+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.33
Superbet
4.20
1xBet
4.20
Betano
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Under
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
FC Lugano over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.1%
@ 10.75-4.6%
Under
95.9%
@ 1.03+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
10Bet
11.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.0%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.03
-
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.2%
1.07
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
+9.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.9%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
-
-
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.9%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.04
+8.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.7%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-
+6.8%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
89.9%
1.22
Pinnacle
1.25
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.24
Betfair
1.22
Bet365
1.22
+13.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.4%
1.10
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.1%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Betano
1.16
William Hil
1.15
BetVictor
1.13
+7.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
88.8%
1.16
Betano
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
BetVictor
1.15
+8.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.2%
1.16
Superbet
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
+7.6%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
86.3%
1.11
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.10
-
-
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
86.1%
1.27
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.27
+12.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.9%
1.19
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
+7.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.9%
1.30
Betano
1.34
Superbet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
William Hil
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
+11.5%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
82.5%
1.21
Superbet
1.25
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Unibet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
+8.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
82.1%
1.28
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
+10.1%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.2%
1.14
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
-3.3%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
77.0%
1.57
Pinnacle
1.62
Superbet
1.60
1xBet
1.59
Marathonbet
1.59
Betano
1.57
+17.5%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
72.3%
1.15
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
Unibet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
-8.3%
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
72.0%
1.34
Unibet
1.38
Superbet
1.36
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
Betano
1.30
+3.2%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
71.3%
1.15
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Pinnacle
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.16
-9.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
70.1%
1.26
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.27
BetVictor
1.25
-4.2%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC Sion
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Winsley Boteli Mokango80%
Ylyas Chouaref25%
F. Surdez22%
Baltazar Costa20%
D. Rrudhani20%
Théo Berdayes20%
J. Kronig10%
R. Nivokazi10%
Josias Lukembila10%
A. Racioppi0%
Marquinhos Cipriano0%
B. Kololli0%
Numa Lavanchy0%
Nias Hefti0%
Ali Kabacalman0%
N. Sow0%
Liam Scott Chipperfield0%
F. Sylla0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
N. Sow30%
Numa Lavanchy20%
Baltazar Costa20%
Ali Kabacalman20%
Nias Hefti17%
J. Kronig10%
R. Nivokazi10%
D. Rrudhani10%
A. Racioppi0%
Marquinhos Cipriano0%
B. Kololli0%
Ylyas Chouaref0%
Josias Lukembila0%
F. Surdez0%
Théo Berdayes0%
Liam Scott Chipperfield0%
Winsley Boteli Mokango0%
F. Sylla0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
F. Surdez33%
Ylyas Chouaref25%
Baltazar Costa20%
Josias Lukembila20%
Winsley Boteli Mokango20%
Marquinhos Cipriano14%
F. Sylla12%
Ali Kabacalman10%
R. Nivokazi10%
D. Rrudhani10%
A. Racioppi0%
J. Kronig0%
B. Kololli0%
Numa Lavanchy0%
Nias Hefti0%
N. Sow0%
Théo Berdayes0%
Liam Scott Chipperfield0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Winsley Boteli Mokango70%
R. Nivokazi20%
D. Rrudhani20%
Ylyas Chouaref12%
F. Surdez11%
Baltazar Costa10%
Théo Berdayes10%
A. Racioppi0%
Marquinhos Cipriano0%
J. Kronig0%
B. Kololli0%
Numa Lavanchy0%
Nias Hefti0%
Ali Kabacalman0%
N. Sow0%
Josias Lukembila0%
Liam Scott Chipperfield0%
F. Sylla0%
FC Lugano
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kevin Behrens57%
D. Moncada44%
Beckham Castro33%
E. Pihlström25%
Y. Cimignani22%
L. Mai14%
R. Steffen11%
A. Papadopoulos11%
Anto Grgić11%
Daniel Dos Santos11%
D. von Ballmoos0%
H. Delcroix0%
A. Kendouci0%
Uran Bislimi0%
Joel Bichsel0%
M. Zanotti0%
D. Kelvin0%
B. Karimov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
B. Karimov33%
A. Papadopoulos22%
Uran Bislimi22%
M. Zanotti22%
R. Steffen11%
A. Kendouci11%
D. Moncada11%
L. Mai0%
D. von Ballmoos0%
H. Delcroix0%
Kevin Behrens0%
Anto Grgić0%
Joel Bichsel0%
Y. Cimignani0%
Daniel Dos Santos0%
Beckham Castro0%
D. Kelvin0%
E. Pihlström0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Anto Grgić33%
Y. Cimignani33%
M. Zanotti33%
Beckham Castro33%
R. Steffen22%
A. Kendouci22%
H. Delcroix17%
L. Mai14%
Kevin Behrens14%
D. von Ballmoos11%
A. Papadopoulos0%
Uran Bislimi0%
Joel Bichsel0%
Daniel Dos Santos0%
D. Kelvin0%
B. Karimov0%
D. Moncada0%
E. Pihlström0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
B. Karimov33%
Kevin Behrens29%
A. Papadopoulos22%
Daniel Dos Santos22%
D. Moncada22%
H. Delcroix17%
E. Pihlström12%
R. Steffen11%
L. Mai0%
D. von Ballmoos0%
A. Kendouci0%
Anto Grgić0%
Uran Bislimi0%
Joel Bichsel0%
Y. Cimignani0%
M. Zanotti0%
Beckham Castro0%
D. Kelvin0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (28)
€66m
FB1 (26)
€49m
FL (26)
€39m
FSG (28)
€32m
FS (28)
€30m
LAU (23)
€27m
FL (28)
€26m
SF (27)
€21m
FT (25)
€17m
GRA (35)
€16m
FZ (27)
€15m
FV (26)
€6m
FC Sion's squad is €9m less valuable than FC Lugano's (€30m vs €39m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FB1 (11)
€16m
FL (11)
€15m
BYB (4)
€15m
FS (10)
€15m
FSG (11)
€12m
LAU (8)
€9m
FL (7)
€8m
SF (6)
€7m
FZ (7)
€6m
GRA (10)
€4m
FT (7)
€4m
FV (9)
€2m
FC Sion's attack is €7m more valuable than FC Lugano's (€15m vs €8m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (8)
€18m
FB1 (5)
€16m
SF (9)
€7m
FL (5)
€7m
FSG (6)
€6m
FS (6)
€6m
LAU (5)
€5m
FT (8)
€5m
GRA (10)
€4m
FL (5)
€3m
FZ (6)
€3m
FV (8)
€2m
FC Sion's midfield is €1m less valuable than FC Lugano's (€6m vs €7m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (16)
€33m
FL (14)
€24m
FB1 (10)
€16m
FSG (11)
€14m
LAU (10)
€13m
FS (12)
€9m
SF (12)
€8m
FL (12)
€8m
FT (10)
€8m
GRA (15)
€7m
FZ (14)
€6m
FV (9)
€2m
FC Sion's defence is €15m less valuable than FC Lugano's (€9m vs €24m).
Switzerland: Super League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Super League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
BSC Young Boys
FC Basel 1893
FC Luzern
FC ST. Gallen
FC Thun
Lausanne
FC Zurich
Servette FC
Grasshoppers
FC Vaduz