This opponent (AC Milan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AC Milan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
0.97
1.60
0.87
2.33
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.58
1.25
0.75
1.25
2.00
1.25
vs Weaker (18)
2.22
0.78
1.91
0.73
2.71
0.86
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Fiorentina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.5%
Under 1.5
17.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
59.7%
@ 1.84+7.9%
Under 2.5
40.3%
@ 1.98-7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
37.4%
Under 3.5
62.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.0%
No
39.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%
1-2
9.6%
0-2
7.7%
0-1
7.3%
2-1
6.5%
2-2
6.0%
1-3
5.9%
0-0
5.6%
Fiorentina goals ↓
AC Milan goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.6%
7.3%
7.7%
4.8%
2.2%
1
4.6%
11%
9.6%
5.9%
2.7%
2
3.5%
6.5%
6.0%
3.7%
1.7%
3
1.5%
2.7%
2.5%
1.5%
0.7%
4
0.5%
0.8%
0.8%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fiorentina goals (down), columns = AC Milan goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
AC Milan
2.26
Inter
2.21
Napoli
2.08
Juventus
1.84
Lazio
1.68
AS Roma
1.66
Fiorentina
1.63
Atalanta
1.55
Hellas Verona
1.39
Sassuolo
1.32
Torino
1.32
Udinese
1.24
Bologna
1.21
Empoli
1.08
Sampdoria
0.95
Spezia
0.95
Salernitana
0.82
Cagliari
0.79
Genoa
0.74
Venezia
0.71
Fiorentina is 0.63 points worse than AC Milan in terms of average points per game (1.63 vs 2.26).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Inter
2.21
Lazio
2.03
Napoli
1.95
AC Milan
1.82
Atalanta
1.71
Hellas Verona
1.71
Sassuolo
1.68
Udinese
1.61
AS Roma
1.55
Fiorentina
1.55
Juventus
1.50
Empoli
1.32
Sampdoria
1.21
Torino
1.21
Bologna
1.16
Spezia
1.08
Cagliari
0.89
Venezia
0.89
Salernitana
0.87
Genoa
0.71
Fiorentina is 0.26 goals worse than AC Milan in terms of goals scored per game (1.55 vs 1.82).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Napoli
0.82
AC Milan
0.82
Inter
0.84
Juventus
0.97
Torino
1.08
AS Roma
1.13
Atalanta
1.26
Fiorentina
1.34
Bologna
1.45
Udinese
1.53
Lazio
1.53
Hellas Verona
1.55
Genoa
1.58
Sampdoria
1.66
Sassuolo
1.74
Cagliari
1.79
Venezia
1.82
Empoli
1.84
Spezia
1.87
Salernitana
2.05
Fiorentina is 0.53 goals worse than AC Milan in terms of goals conceded per game (1.34 vs 0.82).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Fiorentina
For 5.4 · Against 4.0 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.5 · Against 2.9 · Total 6.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 15.2 · Total 28.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AC Milan
For 3.6 · Against 4.7 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.1 · Against 14.7 · Total 27.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Fiorentina
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
8.8
9.0
5.1
5.1
5.0
28.3
27.8
28.7
vs Stronger (9)
9.4
10.8
7.8
4.8
5.4
4.0
26.1
25.4
27.0
vs Similar (27)
8.6
8.5
8.7
5.4
5.4
5.4
28.8
28.6
29.0
vs Weaker (14)
9.1
8.0
10.1
4.6
4.4
4.7
28.7
28.3
29.1
% over line
42%
38%
46%
80%
83%
77%
92%
88%
96%
% under line
58%
62%
54%
20%
17%
23%
8%
12%
4%
This opponent (AC Milan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AC Milan
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
11.0
9.8
4.7
4.4
4.9
26.8
27.6
26.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
10.5
10.8
10.3
4.9
4.1
5.7
25.8
25.8
25.9
vs Weaker (31)
10.3
11.1
9.5
4.5
4.6
4.4
27.4
28.7
26.1
% over line
62%
68%
56%
70%
64%
76%
92%
92%
92%
% under line
38%
32%
44%
30%
36%
24%
8%
8%
8%
This opponent (Fiorentina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Empoli
11.0
Sassuolo
10.6
Venezia
10.6
Sampdoria
10.5
Bologna
10.5
AC Milan
10.4
Cagliari
10.2
Juventus
10.0
AS Roma
9.8
Hellas Verona
9.4
Inter
9.4
Napoli
9.3
Udinese
9.3
Salernitana
9.3
Genoa
9.2
Lazio
9.1
Fiorentina
8.9
Torino
8.9
Atalanta
8.8
Spezia
8.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lazio
5.3
Venezia
5.3
Salernitana
5.2
AS Roma
5.1
Fiorentina
5.1
Torino
5.0
Napoli
5.0
Bologna
5.0
Spezia
4.9
Hellas Verona
4.8
AC Milan
4.7
Juventus
4.7
Sampdoria
4.6
Sassuolo
4.6
Atalanta
4.6
Genoa
4.4
Cagliari
4.4
Udinese
4.3
Inter
4.2
Empoli
4.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Torino
31.5
Venezia
30.9
Hellas Verona
30.4
Salernitana
29.7
Spezia
29.2
Atalanta
28.4
Fiorentina
28.3
Empoli
27.8
Genoa
27.5
Udinese
27.3
Juventus
26.9
AC Milan
26.8
Sampdoria
26.8
Bologna
26.8
Cagliari
26.7
AS Roma
26.6
Sassuolo
26.6
Napoli
25.6
Lazio
24.8
Inter
24.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
40.8%
Under 9.5
59.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
76.6%
Under 3.5
23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
86.7%
Under 21.5
13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Fiorentina
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.37
0.79
0.43
0.62
0.31
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.33
0.60
0.40
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (16)
0.69
0.44
1.00
0.57
0.44
0.33
vs Weaker (8)
0.88
0.25
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (AC Milan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AC Milan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.30
0.73
0.40
1.00
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.75
0.42
0.50
0.50
0.88
0.38
vs Weaker (18)
0.94
0.22
0.82
0.36
1.14
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Fiorentina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fiorentina over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentina over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentina over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AC Milan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AC Milan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AC Milan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Fiorentina
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.03
0.93
1.14
0.50
0.94
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.60
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.75
1.12
1.14
1.14
0.44
1.11
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
0.50
2.50
0.00
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (AC Milan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AC Milan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.67
0.87
0.47
1.33
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.83
0.83
0.25
0.75
1.12
0.88
vs Weaker (18)
1.28
0.56
1.09
0.36
1.57
0.86
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Fiorentina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fiorentina over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentina over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentina over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AC Milan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AC Milan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AC Milan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 10.5 corners
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Fiorentina · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Cher Ndour33%
Nicolò Fagioli0%
David De Gea0%
Marco Brescianini0%
João Mário0%
Radu Drăguşin0%
Arthur Atta0%
Franco Mastantuono0%
Christ Inao Oulaï0%
Víctor Valdepeñas0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nicolò Fagioli33%
Radu Drăguşin33%
Christ Inao Oulaï33%
David De Gea0%
Marco Brescianini0%
João Mário0%
Cher Ndour0%
Arthur Atta0%
Franco Mastantuono0%
Víctor Valdepeñas0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marco Brescianini33%
João Mário33%
Radu Drăguşin33%
Nicolò Fagioli0%
David De Gea0%
Cher Ndour0%
Arthur Atta0%
Franco Mastantuono0%
Christ Inao Oulaï0%
Víctor Valdepeñas0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cher Ndour33%
Arthur Atta33%
Franco Mastantuono33%
Nicolò Fagioli0%
David De Gea0%
Marco Brescianini0%
João Mário0%
Radu Drăguşin0%
Christ Inao Oulaï0%
Víctor Valdepeñas0%
AC Milan · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Rafael Leão29%
Christian Pulišić24%
Christopher Nkunku21%
Adrien Rabiot16%
Strahinja Pavlović14%
Ruben Loftus-Cheek10%
Alexis Saelemaekers8%
Zachary Athekame7%
Youssouf Fofana6%
Luka Modrić6%
Santiago Giménez6%
Niclas Füllkrug5%
Pervis Estupiñán5%
Koni De Winter4%
Davide Bartesaghi3%
Samuele Ricci3%
Fikayo Tomori0%
Mike Maignan0%
Matteo Gabbia0%
Ardon Jashari0%
Cheveyo Mul-Balentien0%
David Odogu0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Pervis Estupiñán29%
Fikayo Tomori19%
Strahinja Pavlović16%
Adrien Rabiot16%
Rafael Leão16%
Alexis Saelemaekers13%
Matteo Gabbia13%
Samuele Ricci12%
Youssouf Fofana11%
Luka Modrić11%
Santiago Giménez11%
Zachary Athekame11%
Mike Maignan10%
Davide Bartesaghi9%
Koni De Winter7%
Ruben Loftus-Cheek6%
Christian Pulišić0%
Christopher Nkunku0%
Niclas Füllkrug0%
Ardon Jashari0%
Cheveyo Mul-Balentien0%
David Odogu0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Adrien Rabiot13%
Christian Pulišić12%
Samuele Ricci12%
Youssouf Fofana11%
Santiago Giménez11%
Alexis Saelemaekers11%
Rafael Leão10%
Christopher Nkunku9%
Luka Modrić8%
Fikayo Tomori8%
Zachary Athekame7%
Ardon Jashari6%
Pervis Estupiñán5%
Koni De Winter4%
Ruben Loftus-Cheek3%
Davide Bartesaghi3%
Strahinja Pavlović3%
Mike Maignan0%
Niclas Füllkrug0%
Matteo Gabbia0%
Cheveyo Mul-Balentien0%
David Odogu0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Rafael Leão26%
Christian Pulišić21%
Santiago Giménez17%
Adrien Rabiot13%
Christopher Nkunku12%
Youssouf Fofana11%
Ruben Loftus-Cheek10%
Matteo Gabbia6%
Ardon Jashari6%
Alexis Saelemaekers5%
Samuele Ricci3%
Strahinja Pavlović3%
Luka Modrić0%
Fikayo Tomori0%
Mike Maignan0%
Niclas Füllkrug0%
Pervis Estupiñán0%
Koni De Winter0%
Cheveyo Mul-Balentien0%
Davide Bartesaghi0%
David Odogu0%
Zachary Athekame0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (25)
€694m
AM (33)
€585m
JUV (28)
€569m
AR (29)
€471m
NAP (33)
€459m
ATA (26)
€438m
FIO (28)
€330m
LAZ (35)
€240m
BOL (25)
€218m
SAS (38)
€194m
GEN (32)
€182m
UDI (30)
€157m
TOR (31)
€144m
CAG (31)
€134m
VEN (36)
€117m
HV (34)
€57m
SAM (27)
€37m
EMP (27)
€20m
SPE (34)
€11m
Fiorentina's squad is €255m less valuable than AC Milan's (€330m vs €585m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JUV (10)
€240m
AM (8)
€223m
INT (5)
€220m
NAP (12)
€206m
ATA (7)
€158m
AR (6)
€138m
FIO (9)
€125m
BOL (8)
€104m
SAS (12)
€90m
LAZ (9)
€60m
GEN (9)
€54m
CAG (11)
€51m
UDI (8)
€46m
TOR (10)
€43m
VEN (9)
€39m
SAM (7)
€14m
HV (10)
€13m
EMP (9)
€11m
SPE (10)
€3m
Fiorentina's attack is €98m less valuable than AC Milan's (€125m vs €223m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€232m
AM (11)
€153m
JUV (6)
€140m
ATA (10)
€128m
AR (5)
€118m
FIO (6)
€107m
NAP (7)
€101m
LAZ (8)
€86m
SAS (9)
€53m
TOR (8)
€46m
GEN (6)
€44m
UDI (8)
€39m
BOL (5)
€34m
VEN (11)
€31m
CAG (9)
€31m
HV (9)
€14m
SAM (6)
€7m
EMP (9)
€6m
SPE (11)
€4m
Fiorentina's midfield is €46m less valuable than AC Milan's (€107m vs €153m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€242m
AR (18)
€215m
AM (14)
€209m
JUV (12)
€189m
ATA (9)
€153m
NAP (14)
€152m
FIO (13)
€98m
LAZ (18)
€93m
GEN (17)
€84m
BOL (12)
€79m
UDI (14)
€72m
TOR (13)
€54m
SAS (17)
€52m
CAG (11)
€52m
VEN (16)
€47m
HV (15)
€30m
SAM (14)
€17m
EMP (9)
€4m
SPE (13)
€4m
Fiorentina's defence is €111m less valuable than AC Milan's (€98m vs €209m).
Italy: Serie A 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie A stats & trends →
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Inter
Napoli
Juventus
Lazio
AS Roma
Atalanta
Hellas Verona
Torino
Sassuolo
Udinese
Bologna
Empoli
Sampdoria
Spezia
Salernitana
Cagliari
Genoa
Venezia