Fiorentina vs AS Roma Result & Analysis

The encounter between Fiorentina and AS Roma is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win at 35%. The draw sits at 31% and the away side 33%. The expected total goals is 2.3, centring on a 2-goal match. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.6% chance. Fiorentina, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.17 conceded. Roma, on the road against a similar team, averages 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded. The model’s selections are: Over 2.5 cards 82.5%; Over 19.5 fouls 81.3%; Under 3.5 80.4%; Over 8.5 corners 78.8%; and Under 5.5 cards 70.5%. Fiorentina’s recent form shows two straight defeats, while Roma comes off a five-game winning streak, adding to the uncertainty of the outcome.

The pre-match favourite, Fiorentina, failed to deliver, as the match finished 1-1, a draw that left the model’s call wrong. The model had given the home side a 35% chance of victory, yet the result was a stalemate. The game saw the model’s selections largely come to fruition: Over 2.5 cards hit at 82.5%, Over 19.5 fouls at 81.3%, Under 3.5 at 80.4%, and Over 8.5 corners at 78.8%. Only Under 5.5 cards missed, with a 70.5% probability. Fiorentina’s recent form, marked by two straight defeats, contrasted sharply with Roma’s five-game winning streak, underscoring the unexpected outcome.