Fiorentina vs AS Roma Result & Analysis

The encounter between Fiorentina and AS Roma is a tight one, with the model pointing to a home win as the most likely outcome. The probabilities are 37% for a Fiorentina victory, 29% for a draw and 34% for a Roma triumph. The expected total of 2.6 goals translates to an average of about two goals, with the single most probable scoreline being 1-1 at 13.8%. Fiorentina, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.71 goals scored and 0.43 conceded, while Roma on the road to a similar strength side averages 1.17 goals scored and 2.83 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 93.8%, Over 21.5 fouls at 86.8%, Over 2.5 cards at 85.1%, Under 11.5 corners at 77.4%, Over 23.5 fouls at 76.1%, Over 1.5 goals at 74.7% and Under 3.5 goals at 73.4%. Fiorentina’s recent form shows a 5-game run of two losses, a draw and two wins, ending with a 0-3 defeat to Frosinone, whereas Roma come off a five-game winning streak, capped by a 4-0 victory over Lecce.

The pre-match favourite, Fiorentina, failed to deliver, as the match finished 1-2 in favour of AS Roma, ending the home side’s run of two straight defeats. The model had picked a home win at 37% probability, but that call was wrong. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 93.8%, Over 21.5 fouls hit at 86.8%, Over 2.5 cards hit at 85.1%, Under 11.5 corners hit at 77.4%, Over 23.5 fouls hit at 76.1%, Over 1.5 hit at 74.7%, and Under 3.5 hit at 73.4%. The predicted most likely score of 1-1 at 13.8% did not materialise, and the expected total of 2.6 goals was also missed. The model’s overall forecast was correct for the majority of its suggested picks, despite the upset.