This opponent (Atalanta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atalanta
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.27
1.27
2.56
1.50
1.93
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
2.00
1.45
2.17
1.50
1.80
1.40
vs Weaker (19)
2.42
1.16
2.80
1.50
2.00
0.78
Clean sheet %
27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Fiorentina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.3%
Under 1.5
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.1%
@ 1.66-5.2%
Under 2.5
47.9%
@ 2.23+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
29.9%
Under 3.5
70.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.0%
No
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%
0-1
10.2%
0-2
10.1%
1-2
9.8%
0-0
7.4%
0-3
6.0%
1-3
5.8%
2-1
5.4%
Fiorentina goals ↓
Atalanta goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.4%
10%
10%
6.0%
2.7%
1
5.1%
12%
9.8%
5.8%
2.6%
2
3.0%
5.4%
4.8%
2.9%
1.3%
3
1.0%
1.8%
1.6%
0.9%
0.4%
4
0.2%
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fiorentina goals (down), columns = Atalanta goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Inter
2.39
AC Milan
2.08
Atalanta
2.05
Juventus
2.05
Napoli
2.03
Lazio
1.79
AS Roma
1.66
Sassuolo
1.63
Sampdoria
1.37
Hellas Verona
1.13
Genoa
1.11
Bologna
1.08
Udinese
1.05
Fiorentina
1.05
Spezia
1.03
Torino
0.97
Cagliari
0.97
Benevento
0.87
Crotone
0.61
Parma
0.53
Fiorentina is 1.00 points worse than Atalanta in terms of average points per game (1.05 vs 2.05).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Atalanta
2.37
Inter
2.34
Napoli
2.26
Juventus
2.03
AC Milan
1.95
AS Roma
1.79
Sassuolo
1.68
Lazio
1.61
Sampdoria
1.37
Spezia
1.37
Bologna
1.34
Torino
1.32
Genoa
1.24
Fiorentina
1.24
Crotone
1.18
Hellas Verona
1.13
Cagliari
1.13
Udinese
1.11
Benevento
1.05
Parma
1.03
Fiorentina is 1.13 goals worse than Atalanta in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 2.37).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Inter
0.92
Juventus
1.00
Napoli
1.08
AC Milan
1.08
Atalanta
1.24
Hellas Verona
1.26
Sampdoria
1.42
AS Roma
1.45
Lazio
1.45
Sassuolo
1.47
Udinese
1.53
Genoa
1.53
Cagliari
1.55
Fiorentina
1.55
Bologna
1.71
Torino
1.82
Spezia
1.89
Benevento
1.97
Parma
2.18
Crotone
2.42
Fiorentina is 0.32 goals worse than Atalanta in terms of goals conceded per game (1.55 vs 1.24).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Fiorentina
For 4.3 · Against 5.5 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.8 · Against 14.1 · Total 27.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Atalanta
For 4.9 · Against 3.8 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.3 · Against 13.4 · Total 29.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Fiorentina
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
8.9
10.2
4.6
4.6
4.7
27.6
28.1
27.2
vs Stronger (7)
10.3
14.0
9.7
3.7
4.0
3.7
23.1
19.0
23.8
vs Similar (26)
9.3
8.6
10.2
4.8
4.4
5.2
28.0
26.9
29.2
vs Weaker (17)
9.5
8.8
10.6
4.8
4.8
4.9
29.0
30.7
26.6
% over line
48%
32%
64%
74%
76%
72%
84%
80%
88%
% under line
52%
68%
36%
26%
24%
28%
16%
20%
12%
This opponent (Atalanta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atalanta
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.7
8.3
9.2
4.3
4.0
4.6
29.0
27.6
30.4
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
8.4
8.0
8.8
4.1
3.8
4.4
29.2
28.6
29.9
vs Weaker (32)
8.9
8.4
9.5
4.4
4.1
4.7
28.8
27.1
30.7
% over line
46%
38%
54%
68%
58%
79%
92%
88%
96%
% under line
54%
62%
46%
32%
42%
21%
8%
12%
4%
This opponent (Fiorentina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Bologna
11.6
AC Milan
11.1
Sassuolo
11.0
Sampdoria
10.5
Juventus
10.5
Udinese
10.4
Cagliari
10.4
AS Roma
10.1
Hellas Verona
10.0
Lazio
10.0
Torino
9.9
Parma
9.6
Fiorentina
9.5
Inter
9.5
Benevento
9.5
Napoli
9.4
Crotone
9.3
Genoa
8.9
Atalanta
8.7
Spezia
7.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Crotone
5.5
Sassuolo
5.2
Lazio
5.2
Spezia
5.1
Torino
5.1
Bologna
5.1
AS Roma
5.1
Benevento
5.0
Sampdoria
4.9
Genoa
4.8
Hellas Verona
4.8
Napoli
4.8
Juventus
4.8
AC Milan
4.8
Cagliari
4.7
Inter
4.6
Fiorentina
4.6
Parma
4.6
Atalanta
4.3
Udinese
4.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Torino
31.2
Crotone
30.0
Spezia
29.8
Benevento
29.5
Hellas Verona
29.3
Atalanta
29.0
Bologna
28.5
Genoa
28.0
Fiorentina
27.6
Sampdoria
27.6
Parma
27.3
Sassuolo
26.9
Cagliari
26.9
AS Roma
26.4
AC Milan
26.2
Udinese
26.1
Juventus
25.9
Inter
25.8
Lazio
25.0
Napoli
24.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
44.0%
Under 9.5
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
64.5%
Under 3.5
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
92.4%
Under 21.5
7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Fiorentina
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.70
0.60
0.47
0.67
0.93
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (15)
0.40
0.60
0.75
0.50
0.00
0.71
vs Weaker (11)
1.00
0.55
0.50
0.33
1.60
0.80
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Atalanta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atalanta
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.63
0.88
0.62
1.14
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.45
0.82
0.17
0.67
0.80
1.00
vs Weaker (19)
1.32
0.53
1.30
0.60
1.33
0.44
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Fiorentina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fiorentina over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentina over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentina over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atalanta over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atalanta over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atalanta over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Fiorentina
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.87
0.73
0.80
0.60
0.93
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
1.33
1.67
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.87
0.75
0.88
0.29
0.86
vs Weaker (11)
0.73
0.64
0.83
0.67
0.60
0.60
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Atalanta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atalanta
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.63
1.69
0.88
0.79
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.55
0.64
2.00
0.83
1.00
0.40
vs Weaker (19)
1.11
0.63
1.50
0.90
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Fiorentina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fiorentina over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentina over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentina over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atalanta over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atalanta over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atalanta over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Fiorentina · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Cher Ndour33%
Nicolò Fagioli0%
David De Gea0%
Marco Brescianini0%
João Mário0%
Radu Drăguşin0%
Arthur Atta0%
Franco Mastantuono0%
Christ Inao Oulaï0%
Víctor Valdepeñas0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nicolò Fagioli33%
Radu Drăguşin33%
Christ Inao Oulaï33%
David De Gea0%
Marco Brescianini0%
João Mário0%
Cher Ndour0%
Arthur Atta0%
Franco Mastantuono0%
Víctor Valdepeñas0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marco Brescianini33%
João Mário33%
Radu Drăguşin33%
Nicolò Fagioli0%
David De Gea0%
Cher Ndour0%
Arthur Atta0%
Franco Mastantuono0%
Christ Inao Oulaï0%
Víctor Valdepeñas0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cher Ndour33%
Arthur Atta33%
Franco Mastantuono33%
Nicolò Fagioli0%
David De Gea0%
Marco Brescianini0%
João Mário0%
Radu Drăguşin0%
Christ Inao Oulaï0%
Víctor Valdepeñas0%
Atalanta · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Giacomo Raspadori25%
Gianluca Scamacca25%
Nikola Krstović25%
Lazar Samardžić25%
Gianluca Gaetano0%
Sead Kolašinac0%
Mario Pašalić0%
Éderson0%
Marco Carnesecchi0%
Odilon Kossounou0%
Raoul Bellanova0%
Charles De Ketelaere0%
Nicola Zalewski0%
Lorenzo Bernasconi0%
Giorgio Scalvini0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Giacomo Raspadori25%
Nikola Krstović25%
Gianluca Gaetano0%
Sead Kolašinac0%
Mario Pašalić0%
Éderson0%
Marco Carnesecchi0%
Gianluca Scamacca0%
Odilon Kossounou0%
Raoul Bellanova0%
Charles De Ketelaere0%
Lazar Samardžić0%
Nicola Zalewski0%
Lorenzo Bernasconi0%
Giorgio Scalvini0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Gianluca Gaetano25%
Nicola Zalewski25%
Sead Kolašinac0%
Mario Pašalić0%
Éderson0%
Marco Carnesecchi0%
Giacomo Raspadori0%
Gianluca Scamacca0%
Odilon Kossounou0%
Nikola Krstović0%
Raoul Bellanova0%
Charles De Ketelaere0%
Lazar Samardžić0%
Lorenzo Bernasconi0%
Giorgio Scalvini0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nikola Krstović50%
Lazar Samardžić25%
Gianluca Gaetano0%
Sead Kolašinac0%
Mario Pašalić0%
Éderson0%
Marco Carnesecchi0%
Giacomo Raspadori0%
Gianluca Scamacca0%
Odilon Kossounou0%
Raoul Bellanova0%
Charles De Ketelaere0%
Nicola Zalewski0%
Lorenzo Bernasconi0%
Giorgio Scalvini0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (25)
€694m
AM (33)
€585m
JUV (28)
€569m
AR (29)
€471m
NAP (33)
€459m
ATA (26)
€438m
FIO (28)
€330m
LAZ (35)
€240m
BOL (25)
€218m
SAS (38)
€194m
GEN (32)
€182m
UDI (30)
€157m
TOR (31)
€144m
PAR (28)
€142m
CAG (31)
€134m
HV (34)
€57m
SAM (27)
€37m
BEN (30)
€12m
SPE (34)
€11m
Fiorentina's squad is €108m less valuable than Atalanta's (€330m vs €438m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JUV (10)
€240m
AM (8)
€223m
INT (5)
€220m
NAP (12)
€206m
ATA (7)
€158m
AR (6)
€138m
FIO (9)
€125m
BOL (8)
€104m
SAS (12)
€90m
LAZ (9)
€60m
GEN (9)
€54m
CAG (11)
€51m
UDI (8)
€46m
TOR (10)
€43m
PAR (8)
€35m
SAM (7)
€14m
HV (10)
€13m
BEN (8)
€4m
SPE (10)
€3m
Fiorentina's attack is €33m less valuable than Atalanta's (€125m vs €158m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€232m
AM (11)
€153m
JUV (6)
€140m
ATA (10)
€128m
AR (5)
€118m
FIO (6)
€107m
NAP (7)
€101m
LAZ (8)
€86m
PAR (8)
€60m
SAS (9)
€53m
TOR (8)
€46m
GEN (6)
€44m
UDI (8)
€39m
BOL (5)
€34m
CAG (9)
€31m
HV (9)
€14m
SAM (6)
€7m
SPE (11)
€4m
BEN (9)
€3m
Fiorentina's midfield is €21m less valuable than Atalanta's (€107m vs €128m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€242m
AR (18)
€215m
AM (14)
€209m
JUV (12)
€189m
ATA (9)
€153m
NAP (14)
€152m
FIO (13)
€98m
LAZ (18)
€93m
GEN (17)
€84m
BOL (12)
€79m
UDI (14)
€72m
TOR (13)
€54m
SAS (17)
€52m
CAG (11)
€52m
PAR (12)
€46m
HV (15)
€30m
SAM (14)
€17m
BEN (13)
€5m
SPE (13)
€4m
Fiorentina's defence is €54m less valuable than Atalanta's (€98m vs €153m).
Italy: Serie A 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie A stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Inter
AC Milan
Juventus
Napoli
Lazio
AS Roma
Sassuolo
Sampdoria
Hellas Verona
Genoa
Bologna
Udinese
Spezia
Cagliari
Torino
Benevento
Parma